Econometrics Commons^™

Short-Term Household Economic Stress Effects On Retail Sales In El Paso: 2002-2019, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Patricia Arellano-Olague

Border Region Modeling Project

Economic stress indices are beginning to be developed as gauges of business cycle conditions for regional economies. Although the popularity of these metrics is increasing, there have been only a small number of studies that analyze the effectiveness of these tools for monitoring regional economic developments. This effort employs data for one such index that is maintained by The University of Texas at El Paso Border Region Modeling Project. The sample period covers December 2002 through March 2019. Specific components of the index include inflation, unemployment, and housing prices. Estimation results indicate that the effects of any changes in economic …

Who Withdraws First? Line Formation During Bank Runs, Hubert János Kiss, Ismael Rodriguez-Lara, Alfonso Rosa-Garcia

ESI Working Papers

We study how lines form in front of banks. In our model, depositors choose first the level of effort to arrive early at the bank and then whether or not to withdraw their deposit. We argue that the informational environment (i.e., the possibility of observing the action of others) affects the emergence of bank runs and should, therefore, influence the line formation. We test this prediction experimentally. While the informational environment has no effect on the line formation when we look at the average level of effort, our findings suggest that the reasons to arrive early at the bank varies …

The Grid Bootstrap For Continuous Time Models, Yiu Lim Lui, Weilin Xiao, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article proposes the new grid bootstrap to construct confidence intervals (CI) for the persistence parameter in a class of continuous-time models. It is different from the standard grid bootstrap of Hansen in dealing with the initial condition. The asymptotic validity of the CI is discussed under the in-fill scheme. The modified grid bootstrap leads to uniform inferences on the persistence parameter. Its improvement over in-fill asymptotics is achieved by expanding the coefficient-based statistic around its in-fill asymptotic distribution that is non-pivotal and depends on the initial condition. Monte Carlo studies show that the modified grid bootstrap performs better than …

Agency, Benevolence And Justice, Prithvijit Mukherjee, J. Dustin Tracy

ESI Working Papers

We test for social norms regarding how Agents should select between risky prospects for Principals, including norms consistent with observations by Adam Smith. We elicit norms from subjects serving as ``impartial spectator[s]" about the choice of risky prospects selected by the Agents. We find strong evidence for the existence of norms, consistent with Smith's observations. Furthermore, we find that Agents are more likely to select more normative options. In contrast, we find that Principals' allocation for bonuses depends on the realization of the risky prospect rather than whether the Agents' choice was consistent with the norm.

What Drives The Fracking Boom Crime Relationship? A Fixed-Effects Analysis Of Crime During The Pennsylvania Fracking Boom, Webster Batista-Lin

Masters Theses

The rapid expansion of hydraulic fracturing(fracking) over the past two decades has led to an increasing interest in the relationship between natural resource booms and crime. Since the onset of the fracking boom, numerous anecdotal accounts and an increasing body of empirical studies have suggested that fracking has a significant, positive impact on crime. However, the mechanisms behind this relationship are poorly understood. This study uses a high-resolution dataset and a unique, fixed-effects approach to decompose the effect that fracking has on crime into increases due to the introduction of new wells and increases due to the presence of existing …

An Exploratory Analysis Of Time Series Econometric Data For Retention Forecasting Using Deep Learning, John C. O'Donnell

Theses and Dissertations

Officer retention in the Air Force has been researched many times in an attempt to better predict the personnel needs of the Air Force for the future. There has been previous work done in regards to specific AFSCs and how their retention compares to specific yet similar private sector jobs. This study considers different econometric time series statistics as a feature space and an average Air Force officer separation rate as the response variable for the multivariate time series analysis deep learning techniques. The econometric indicators used in this study are New Business Formations, New Durable Good Orders, and the …

Locational Error In The Estimation Of Regional Discrete Choice Models Using Distance As A Regressor, Giuseppe Arbia, Paolo Berta, Carrie B. Dolan

Arts & Sciences Articles

In many microeconometric studies distance from a relevant point of interest (such as a hospital) is often used as a predictor in a regression framework. Confidentiality rules, often, require to geo-mask spatial micro-data, reducing the quality of such relevant information and distorting inference on models’ parameters. This paper extends previous literature, extending the classical results on the measurement error in a linear regression model to the case of hospital choice, showing that in a discrete choice model the higher is the distortion produced by the geo-masking, the higher will be the downward bias in absolute value toward zero of the …

A Posterior-Based Wald-Type Statistic For Hypothesis Testing, Yong Li, Xiaobin Liu, Tao Zeng, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A new Wald-type statistic is proposed for hypothesis testing based on Bayesian posterior distributions under the correct model specification. The new statistic can be explained as a posterior version of the Wald statistic and has several nice properties. First, it is well-defined under improper prior distributions. Second, it avoids Jeffreys–Lindley–Bartlett’s paradox. Third, under the null hypothesis and repeated sampling, it follows a χ2" role="presentation" style="box-sizing: border-box; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; display: inline-block; line-height: normal; font-size: 16.2px; word-spacing: normal; overflow-wrap: normal; white-space: nowrap; float: none; direction: ltr; max-width: none; max-height: none; min-width: 0px; min-height: 0px; border: 0px; position: relative;">χ2 …

Occupation Density Estimation For Noisy High-Frequency Data, Congshan Zhang, Jia Li, Tim Bollerslev

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies the nonparametric estimation of occupation densities for semimartingale processes observed with noise. As leading examples we consider the stochastic volatility of a latent efficient price process, the volatility of the latent noise that separates the efficient price from the actually observed price, and nonlinear transformations of these processes. Our estimation methods are decidedly nonparametric and consist of two steps: the estimation of the spot price and noise volatility processes based on pre-averaging techniques and in-fill asymptotic arguments, followed by a kernel-type estimation of the occupation densities. Our spot volatility estimates attain the optimal rate of convergence, and …

Conditional Superior Predictive Ability, Jia Li, Zhipeng Liao, Rogier Quaedvlieg

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article proposes a test for the conditional superior predictive ability (CSPA) of a family of forecasting methods with respect to a benchmark. The test is functional in nature: under the null hypothesis, the benchmark’s conditional expected loss is no more than those of the competitors, uniformly across all conditioning states. By inverting the CSPA tests for a set of benchmarks, we obtain confidence sets for the uniformly most superior method. The econometric inference pertains to testing conditional moment inequalities for time series data with general serial dependence, and we justify its asymptotic validity using a uniform non-parametric inference method …

Cryptocurrencies Bandwagon…Fad Wave Or Investment Asset? Firm Level Analysis Of Panel Data In Egypt, Yasmine Galal

Theses and Dissertations

The crypto market is growing rapidly and gaining momentum globally. The current study is tackling the impact of the crypto exchanges on the stock market in Egypt. The author consolidated firm level data from DataStream and Cryptocurrency data from CoinDesk to conduct this study over the period 2014-2020. The methodology is based on Fixed Effect and IV-GMM models to study the differential impact across sectors and firm attributes. Our main findings can be highlighted as follows: (a) cryptocurrencies are substitutes to stocks. (b)Two periods are highlighted in the analysis: 2016 post currency devaluation and COVID-19 pandemic, where the adoption was …

Financial Inclusion And Monetary Policy - Investigating The Relationship Between Financial Inclusion And Monetary Policy: The Case Of Egypt, Salma Maher

Theses and Dissertations

In the past decade, financial inclusion has become an issue of increasing importance to developing nations. This is due to its perceived effects on poverty alleviation, sustainable growth and enhancing monetary policy effectiveness. Unfortunately, there is little empirical research on the effects of financial inclusion. The thesis hopes to contribute to the literature by inspecting the relationship between financial utilization indices and monetary policy in Egypt. The thesis utilizes quarterly data on outstanding deposits and loans from 2004 to 2020 as well as a VAR model – supplemented with an ARDL model – to test the aforementioned relationship. The thesis …

Data For "Agency, Benevolence And Justice", Prithvijit Mukherjee, J. Dustin Tracy

Economic Science Institute Data Sets

We test for social norms regarding how agents should select between risky prospects for principals, including norms consistent with beneficence and justice propositions from Adam Smith. We elicit norms from subjects serving as "impartial spectator[s]" about choice of risky prospect selected by the agents. We find strong evidence for the existence of norms, consistent with the Smith propositions. Furthermore we find that agents are more likely to select more normative options. In contrast, we find that principals' allocation for bonuses depends on the realization of the risky prospect rather than whether the agents choice was consistent with the norm.

Essays On Empirical Asset Pricing Models, Somayeh Ahmadi

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This thesis examines co-movement across industry return and value and momentum asset price anomalies through a new perspective and uses machine learning and spatial econometrics approaches. The first chapter examines the main approaches developed in the cross-section asset pricing literature for finding risk variables. The second chapter focuses on spatial co-movement across US industry returns. We show that spatial co-movement explains the variance in US industry returns after accounting for exposure to common variables, serial dynamics, and industry sector-specific characteristics using a dynamic spatial panel data model. The results show that an investment strategy that buys industry portfolios with high …

The No-Arbitrage Hypothesis And Inertia In Forward Markets, José Luis Ferreira, Praveen Kujal, Stephen Rassenti

ESI Working Papers

Allaz (1992) showed that the no-arbitrage condition in forward markets is obtained as a feature of the equilibrium if the model allows for strategic behavior on the part of the buyers. He showed that having active buyers is equivalent to passive buyers plus the no-arbitrage hypothesis. We test this experimentally in a forward market by allowing for active buyer’s under exogenously or endogenously determined market closure. We further test an inertia hypothesis that looks at whether past participation in a spot-market results in quantities being limited in the forward market stage. Importantly, the no-arbitrage condition can only be tested with …

Nonignorable Missing Data, Single Index Propensity Score And Profile Synthetic Distribution Function, Xuerong Chen, Denis H. Y. Leung, Jing Qin

Research Collection School Of Economics

In missing data problems, missing not at random is difficult to handle since the response probability or propensity score is confounded with the outcome data model in the likelihood. Existing works often assume the propensity score is known up to a finite dimensional parameter. We relax this assumption and consider an unspecified single index model for the propensity score. A pseudo-likelihood based on the complete data is constructed by profiling out a synthetic distribution function that involves the unknown propensity score. The pseudo-likelihood gives asymptotically normal estimates. Simulations show the method compares favorably with existing methods.

A Panel Clustering Approach To Analyzing Bubble Behavior, Yanbo Liu, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This study provides new mechanisms for identifying and estimating explosive bubbles in mixed-root panel autoregressions with a latent group structure. A post-clustering approach is employed that combines a recursive k-means clustering al-gorithm with panel-data test statistics for testing the presence of explosive roots in time series trajectories. Uniform consistency of the k-means clustering algorithm is established, showing that the post-clustering estimate is asymptotically equivalent to the oracle counterpart that uses the true group identities. Based on the estimated group membership, right-tailed self-normalized t-tests and coefficient-based J-tests, each with pivotal limit distributions, are introduced to detect the explosive roots. The usual …

Essays In Monetary And Macroprudential Policies, Mikheil Dvalishvili

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Chapter 1 Using a medium scale general equilibrium New Keynesian business cycle model with macroprudential policy and news shocks I study the effectiveness of various combinations of the monetary and macroprudential policies. I incorporate defaults both in the banking sector and households. The results show that out of the policy strategies considered the standard Taylor rule combined with the LTV requirement that reacts countercyclically to the deviation of house prices from the steady state yields higher welfare as compared with all the other strategies considered. Additionally, the standard Taylor rule combined with either of the countercyclical LTV requirements mitigates the …

The Effect Of Covid-19 On The Performance Of Listed Firms: Do The Governments’ Policies And Vaccination Rates Play A Role? Evidence From Countries In The Middle East And North Africa, Mofida El Bassioni

Theses and Dissertations

This study uses a quantitative approach to estimate the empirical results of COVID-19, stringency index, and vaccination rates on the stock returns of Bahrain, Egypt, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, and UAE. Additionally, the researcher included firm-specific variables such as liquidity and leverage, total capital, employees, and date of incorporation. Total capital and employees were used as proxies for company size and for whether the firm is capital intensive or not, while date of incorporation was used as a proxy for company age. Additionally, the researcher created interaction strings between COVID-19 cases and stringency index, COVID- 19 cases and …

Vector Autoregression Analysis Of The Relationship Between Inflation Rate, Interest Rate, And Exchange Rate To The Jakarta Islamic Index, Ajeng Qurrota A'Yun, Nur Fatwa

Journal of Strategic and Global Studies

ABSTRACT

The Indonesian Sharia Capital Market is an interesting thing to study because based on the 2019 Global Islamic Finance Report (GIFR) report, Indonesia is ranked first in the Global Sharia Financial Market. The Jakarta Islamic Index (JII) is the sharia stock index that was first launched on the Indonesian capital market on July 3, 2000 and only consisted of the 30 most liquid Islamic shares listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. This study will try to uncover how the relationship between macroeconomic variables in Indonesia by using Vector Autoregression (VAR) analysis and using monthly secondary data from 2012-2019. VAR …