Econometrics Commons^™

Dynamic Spatial Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects: M-Estimation And Inference Under Fixed Or Relatively Small T, Liyao Li, Ke Miao, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose an M-estimation method for dynamic spatial panel data models with interactive fixed effects based on (relatively) short panels. Unbiased estimating functions are constructed by adjusting the concentrated conditional quasi scores, given the initial values and with the factor loadings being concentrated out, to account for the effects of conditioning and concentration. Solving the estimating equations gives the M-estimators of the common parameters and common factors. Under fixed T, n-consistency and joint asymptotic normality of the M-estimators are established. Under T = o(n), the M-estimators of the common parameters are shown to be nT-consistent and asymptotically normal. For inference, …

Retroactive Eligibility Waivers: Innovative Or Ineffective?, Mohamed Kacem Benyamine

Theses and Dissertations

Medicaid’s retroactive eligibility provision covers medical expenses for beneficiaries up to 90 days before the application date. Retroactive eligibility insulates uninsured, low-income households from expensive healthcare emergencies. New Hampshire, Arkansas, and Iowa recently obtained waivers to end retroactive coverage. Using a difference-in-differences design and data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, I evaluate whether changes in retroactive coverage affect enrollment rates and self-reported health. Removing retroactive eligibility has no statistically significant effects on insurance enrollment or self-reported health. However, it does increase rates of access to a doctor by 1.0% overall and by 1.6% for women. Removing retroactive eligibility …

Testing Mean Stability Of Heteroskedastic Time Series, Violetta Dalla, Liudas Giraitis, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

Time series models are often fitted to the data without preliminary checks for stability of the mean and variance, conditions that may not hold in much economic and financial data, particularly over long periods. Ignoring such shifts may result in fitting models with spurious dynamics that lead to unsupported and controversial conclusions about time dependence, causality, and the effects of unanticipated shocks. In spite of what may seem as obvious differences between a time series of independent variates with changing variance and a stationary conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) process, such processes may be hard to distinguish in applied work using basic …

A Panel Quantile Model Via Correlated Random Effects Approach For Testing Pecking Order Theory, Zongwu Cai, Meng Shi, Wuqing Wu, Yue Zhao

Student Publications

This article investigates the relative importance of internal and external sources of funds in financing activities across different levels of investment activities by proposing a panel data quantile regression model with correlated random effects, accounting for heteroscedasticity in both firm-specific individuals and distribution of investment. A new estimation method, which takes the influence of disturbance into account, is proposed by using the integrated quasi-likelihood function for the conditional quantile model and Laplace approximation. The large sample theory for the proposed estimator and the corresponding asymptotic χ² test are investigated. A Monte Carlo simulation is conducted to examine the finite …

From Candidates To Coalitions: How Citizens United Changed Electoral Influence, Marc J. Broadhead

SPARK Symposium Presentations

This study investigates the relationship between campaign fundraising and electoral success in the United States House of Representatives, with a specific focus on the period surrounding the Citizens United v. FEC (2010) Supreme Court decision. Using a robust dataset of 30,539 observations from 2002 to 2024, I analyze the ability of total candidate receipts and individual contributions on the probability of victory. Using a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) framework and logistic regression models, the results demonstrate that while fundraising remains a highly significant predictor of winning ($p < 0.001$), the "return on investment" for direct candidate fundraising has significantly decreased in the post-Citizens United era. Specifically, the advantage held by "High Funders" decreased by 8.1% after 2010, suggesting a financial saturation effect where direct receipts are increasingly diluted by the increase of outside expenditures. Partisan disaggregation reveals a "Partisan Efficacy Gap," where Democratic candidates experienced a statistically significant decline in the effectiveness of their fundraising post-2010, while Republican candidates' effectiveness remained relatively stable. These findings suggest that the deregulation of campaign finance has not only increased the total volume of money in politics but has fundamentally altered the marginal utility of a candidate’s campaign war chest, shifting the levers of electoral influence toward outside spending and institutional actors.

Algorithmic Trading In Idiosyncratic-Payoff Markets: A Multi-Agent System For On-Chain Prediction Contracts, Saif Aldeen A.K. Agha

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis documents the design, deployment, and forward-test evaluation of an evolutionary multi-agent algorithmic trading system on Polymarket, the largest decentralized prediction market. The system pairs a locally-hosted 72-billion-parameter language model with a gradient-boosted statistical filter and an evolutionary selection mechanism that maintains a population of approximately 500 autonomous trading agents. Each agent generates a probability estimate for an event, compares it to the prevailing market price, and trades the resulting disagreement.

The central empirical exercise estimates a panel regression of trade-level profit on the absolute disagreement between the agent's probability estimate and the market price, controlling for agent identity, …

Volatility Modeling With An Application To Risk Parity Portfolios, Kenneth Hou

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis studies volatility modeling in the context of risk parity portfolio construction. I compare three risk parity portfolios that differ only in their underlying volatility model: a historical covariance baseline, a Bayesian stochastic volatility model, and a GRU–GARCH hybrid neural network. Using daily returns on Kenneth French’s five industry portfolios from January 2016 through December 2025, I construct monthly rebalanced portfolios under each model, with the SV and GRU forecasts embedded in hybrid covariance matrices that combine forecasted volatilities with rolling historical correlations. The results document a divergence between forecast accuracy and portfolio performance: the SV model is the …

The Zoom Town Effect Of Remote Work On Rural Housing Markets, Luc R. Fabing

CMC Senior Theses

I study the impact of remote work on rural housing markets, highlighting the moderating role of outdoor recreation amenities. Using panel data from the American Community Survey and Zillow (2010–2024), I employ a Two-Way Fixed Effects model and a shift-share instrumental variable strategy to estimate the effect of work-from-home (WFH) rates on home prices. I find that higher WFH rates are strongly associated with higher home prices in high-recreation counties, but that the association is weak or negative in counties lacking significant recreation amenities. These findings point to amenity migration as a key mechanism through which remote work impacts rural …

From Collective Punishment To Collective Action, Samuel N. Johnson-Saeger

CMC Senior Theses

Regime change may be sought in two primary ways, absent a turn to internal or external violence: through nonviolent resistance, from within, and sanctions, from abroad. This paper is about how those two pathways are intertwined. I challenge two different strands of the existing literature. First, I show that Liou et al. (2022)'s finding that sanctions increase the predicted probability of nonviolent resistance movement progress is subject to substantial upward bias from country heterogeneity. Incorporating country fixed effects, I show that sanctions, on average, have no statistically significant effect on resistance outcomes. Second, I challenge Chenoweth and Stephan (2008)'s argument …

Trading Volume And Forecast Accuracy In Kalshi Prediction Markets, Nicholas Smole

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines the accuracy of Kalshi prediction markets and how different measures of trading volume shape their calibration and predictive power. Expanding upon previous models, use nonparametric calibration curves, pseudo-likelihood regressions, and Brier-score regressions on a large panel of Kalshi contracts to compare the effects of ex-post total volume and cumulative trading volume on market accuracy. Markets are typically well-calibrated near expiration; however, at longer horizons, low-volume markets exhibit substantially more miscalibration. Holding time to expiration fixed, greater cumulative volume is associated with higher accuracy. In comparison, higher ex-post total volume is associated with lower accuracy, highlighting the importance …

Macroeconomic Resilience And Sentiment Dynamics In The Global Luxury Fashion Industry, Mehr Gupta

CMC Senior Theses

The global luxury fashion industry is often viewed as a sector where broad economic conditions intersect with individual spending behavior. Yet despite this common assumption, it remains unclear whether macroeconomic fluctuations meaningfully shape luxury firms’ financial performance. This thesis examines the relationship between four key macroeconomic indicators - consumer sentiment, disposable income, unemployment, and exchange rates - and firm-level quarterly revenue for twelve publicly listed luxury companies from the early 2000s through 2024. Firm financial data from S&P Capital IQ are matched with macroeconomic measures from the Federal Reserve (FRED), and the analysis employs a two-way fixed-effects framework with firm …

Factors Correlated With State-Level Variation In Grocery Consumption Changes During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Sun Young Byun

CMC Senior Theses

In this paper, I employ a two-part empirical strategy to explore the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on grocery consumption across U.S. states. First, I use the United States Department of Agriculture's Weekly Retail Food Sales data from 2018-2023 to estimate a time-series panel model. I use the results to test three hypotheses regarding state-level variation in consumption changes and impacts in the initial pandemic period, the remaining pandemic period, and the post-pandemic period. Second, I use the estimated state-level effects as dependent variables in cross-sectional regressions to test three hypotheses linking variation in state-level consumption patterns to economic, demographic, …

From Static Λ To Moving Penalties: Dynamic Regularization In Mean-Variance Portfolio Choice, Ariel Santiago

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis evaluates whether dynamically tuned weight penalties can improve high-dimensional mean-variance portfolio choice. Classical Markowitz portfolios perform poorly when the number of assets is large relative to the data, because small estimation errors in means and covariances can generate extreme, fragile allocations. A common remedy is to regularize the weights using L1 (lasso), L2 (ridge), or elastic-net penalties, but these are typically chosen once and held fixed. Using monthly excess returns on the 48 Fama-French industry portfolios from January 2010 to June 2025, this thesis compares penalized mean-variance and minimum-variance strategies under long-only and long-short constraints, with and without …

High-Resolution, Fast-Response Optical Fiber Temperature Sensor With A Large Measurement Range Based On Fiber-Tip Alumina Fabry-Pérot Interferometer, Ruimin Jie, Chen Zhu, Robert Abbott, Michael Davis, Xiong Zhang, Jie Huang

Electrical and Computer Engineering Faculty Research & Creative Works

We present an alumina-tip optical fiber Fabry-Pérot interferometric temperature sensor exhibiting high-temperature performance, rapid response, and high resolution. Fabricated by fusion splicing an alumina micro disk directly to a single-mode fiber, the sensor achieves robust, stable operation without complex fabrication processes or adhesives. Experimental evaluation confirms a measurement range extending to 1000°C, with sensitivity of 28.66 pm/°C, a resolution of 0.042°C, and a rapid response time of approximately 13 ms. Compared to state-of-the-art optical fiber FPI sensors, our alumina-tip sensor offers superior overall performance, effectively addressing critical demands for high-resolution, fast-response temperature measurement in extreme environments including aerospace, structural monitoring, …

The Economics Of Accountability: Learning From German Holocaust Reparations, Grace I. Gates

Scripps Senior Theses

Drawing on microdata from the Survey of Health, Aging, and Retirement in Europe, this study compares European Holocaust survivors who received reparations with similar Europeans who did not. It finds that, decades on, recipients are not systematically better or worse off on core outcomes like life satisfaction, savings, and debt. This is consistent with the argument that reparations restore parity rather than create new advantages. Where differences emerge, they point to stabilization in more vulnerable settings (e.g., lower likelihood of high debt in parts of Eastern Europe). The main takeaway from effective reparations is applicable to the United States debate: …

Forecasting The Unpredictable: The Bullwhip Effect In The Toy Industry, Mannat Sethi

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis investigates the bullwhip effect, the amplification of demand variability as it moves upstream in a supply chain, with a focus on the toy industry, and comparative analysis with the technology and consumer goods sectors. Using annual data from 1993 to 2024, the study analyzes production and retail growth for Mattel, Hasbro, Intel, and Procter & Gamble to assess how variance between consumer demand and firm output has changed over time. Bullwhip ratios are calculated as the variance of production growth divided by the variance of retail growth across two periods: 1993–2008 and 2009–2024.

The findings show that toy …

Three Essays On Urban Transportation, Daniel Amorim Souza Centuriao

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

Urban environments are shaped by dynamic interactions between infrastructure development, policy interventions, and episodic demand shocks, all of which can generate unintended externalities in the form of motor vehicle collisions, injuries, and fatalities. This dissertation investigates the determinants of traffic safety in dense urban settings, with a particular focus on how different sources of urban activity affect collision risk and severity. Using New York City as a case study and leveraging high-resolution spatial and temporal data, I examine three distinct but interconnected mechanisms: construction activity, traffic safety policies, and large-scale events.

The first chapter analyzes the impact of urban development, …

Women's Work And Wealth: Measuring The Impact Of Incremental Liberations, 1850-1870, Hannah Kelly

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

Using a two-way fixed effects difference-in-difference model, this project analyzes data from the IPUMS Full Count census for 1850, 1860, and 1870 at a state level for 48 states. Four models assess the impact of property laws on women's real property holdings, labor force participation, household types, and real property values.

By quantifying the impact of various legal reforms on women's economic empowerment, this project fills a gap in the understanding of the intersection between law, society, and women's economic agency during a transformative period in pre-industrial American history. These impacts can implicate the effectiveness of legislative measures in advancing …

Three Essays In Cpi Bias And Health Economics, Auderta Amoako-Nuamah

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

The first essay estimates bias in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for elderly individuals in the United States using Engel curve methodology and household-level data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (1999–2023). The analysis focuses on how well the CPI reflects changes in the cost of living for older Americans, with particular attention to differences by gender and marital status. Results show that from 1999–2011, the CPI overstated the increase in the cost of living for both elderly and non-elderly households. In contrast, from 1999–2023, the CPI understated cost increases, with the bias generally larger for non-elderly households. Within …

Dampak Kebijakan Hilirisasi Nikel: Kuasi-Eksperimen Di Sulawesi, Siddiq Robbani, Uka Wikarya

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

Studi ini menganalisis dampak kebijakan larangan ekspor bijih nikel (2014–2016) dan pembangunan smelter (2009–2021) terhadap PDRB per kapita dan konsumsi rumah tangga per kapita menggunakan data panel seimbang dari 81 kabupaten/kota di Sulawesi periode 2006–2021. Dampak kausal dan efek spillover dianalisis menggunakan metode Difference-in-Difference (DiD) dan Spatial Durbin Model (SDM). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan kebijakan larangan ekspor tidak berdampak pada kedua variabel. Pembangunan smelter justru berdampak negatif terhadap PDRB per kapita, tetapi menghasilkan efek spillover positif pada PDRBperkapita daerah tetangga dan efek spillover negatif terhadap konsumsi rumah tangga per kapita di daerah non-smelter.