Econometrics Commons^™

Disaggregated Economic Complexity And Inflation In Oecd Countries, Raymond L. Aor, Afees A. Salisu

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study probes the intricate relationship between economic complexity and inflation dynamics, an area that has been relatively under-researched despite the potential for economic complexity to predict inflation. We focus on selected OECD countries and use panel data from 1998 to 2021. Utilizing a Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PARDL) model, we analyze both short- and long-term dynamics across various components of inflation. Our analysis encompasses both aggregate and disaggregated indicators of complexity, including ECI-Trade, ECI-Technology, and ECI-Research. The results indicate that the impact of economic complexity on inflation differs depending on the type of inflation and the time frame considered. …

Evaluating The Role Of Bank Specific, Macroeconomic, And Institutional Factors In Determining Banking Sector Performance: Evidence From South Asian Economies, Samia Nasreen, Mehwish Gulzar, Xuan-Hoa Nghiem, Saira Arsh

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study investigates the bank-specific, macroeconomic, and institutional factors affecting the performance of the banking sector specifically profitability and stability in South Asian countries from 2011 to 2020. Using a two-step system GMM estimation method on a balanced panel dataset, the study identifies key determinants, including bank size, operating expenses, economic growth, exchange rates, and economic freedom. Institutional factors, particularly corruption, significantly influence banking sector profitability and stability. The findings offer several policy recommendations to enhance banking sector performance in the region.

Stated Preferences For Public Provision Of Services: Experimental Evidence From Latin America, Hernán Bejarano, Matias Busso, Juan Francisco Santos

ESI Working Papers

We study how individuals in six Latin American countries value public versus private provision of education and healthcare using a survey experiment. Respondents were randomly assigned to vignettes that vary income, service quality, and provider type. Reported service quality is the main driver of choices: the probability of selecting a private provider roughly doubles when reported quality of the public option falls from 80 to 20 percent, while income has a smaller effect. Higher institutional trust lowers the likelihood of switching to private providers but does not affect willingness to pay once individuals choose private provision.

Dynamic Spatial Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects: M-Estimation And Inference Under Fixed Or Relatively Small T, Liyao Li, Ke Miao, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose an M-estimation method for dynamic spatial panel data models with interactive fixed effects based on (relatively) short panels. Unbiased estimating functions are constructed by adjusting the concentrated conditional quasi scores, given the initial values and with the factor loadings being concentrated out, to account for the effects of conditioning and concentration. Solving the estimating equations gives the M-estimators of the common parameters and common factors. Under fixed T, n-consistency and joint asymptotic normality of the M-estimators are established. Under T = o(n), the M-estimators of the common parameters are shown to be nT-consistent and asymptotically normal. For inference, …

Existence Of Equilibrium Mechanisms In Generalized Principal-Agent Problems With Interacting Teams, Brian Roberson

ESI Working Papers

We study incentive design when multiple principals simultaneously design mechanisms for their respective teams in environments with strategic spillovers. In this environment, each principal’s set of incentive-compatible mechanisms—those that satisfy their own agents’ incentive compatibility constraints— depends on the mechanisms offered by the other teams. Following a classic example by Myerson (1982), such games may lack equilibrium due to discontinuities in the correspondence of incentive-compatible mechanisms. We establish general conditions for equilibrium existence by introducing a novel approach that involves tracking both the outcome distributions along the truthful-obedient path and the sets of outcome distributions achievable through unilateral deviations, thereby …

Authoritarianism And Conspiracism Around The World, Valerie Capraro, Folca Panizza, Joseph A. Vitriol, Mikey Biddlestone, Andrè Krouwel, Yordan Kutiyski, Alberto López Ortega, Ana Ebert, Max Wan, Praveen Kujal, Karen M. Douglas, Christopher M. Federico, Jolanda Jetten, Sander Van Der Linden, Flávio Azevedo

ESI Working Papers

Authoritarian leaders frequently deploy conspiracy narratives to justify power concentration and delegitimize opponents, yet the link between authoritarianism and conspiracism remains underresearched. Integrating data across six studies from multiple international surveys (N=63,403; 20 countries), expert-coded party systems (71 countries; 14 datasets), and longitudinal panel studies, we demonstrate that individuals with stronger authoritarian orientations are consistently more prone to conspiracism across diverse cultures, political contexts, and time. These results remain robust when controlling for populist attitudes and multiple political, psychological, and demographic variables. The link between authoritarianism and conspiracism appears to constitute a durable and generalizable psychological relationship. This may help …

A General Limit Theory For Nonlinear Functionals Of Nonstationary Time Series, Qiying Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

New limit theory is provided for a wide class of sample variance and covariance functionals involving both nonstationary and stationary time series. Sample functionals of this type commonly appear in regression applications and the asymptotics are particularly relevant to estimation and inference in nonlinear nonstationary regressions that involve unit root, local unit root, or fractional processes. The limit theory is unusually general in that it covers both parametric and nonparametric regressions. Self-normalized versions of these statistics are considered that are useful in inference. Numerical evidence reveals interesting strong bimodality in the finite sample distributions of conventional self-normalized statistics similar to …

New Asymptotics Applied To Functional Coefficient Regression And Climate Sensitivity Analysis, Qiying Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Ying Wang

Research Collection School Of Economics

A general asymptotic theory is established for sample cross moments of nonstationary time series, allowing for long-range dependence and local unit roots. The theory provides a substantial extension of earlier results on nonparametric regression that include near-cointegrated nonparametric regression as well as spurious nonparametric regression. Many new models are covered by the limit theory, among which are functional coefficient regressions in which both regressors and the functional covariate are nonstationary. Simulations show finite sample performance matching well with the asymptotic theory and having broad relevance to applications, while revealing how dual nonstationarity in regressors and covariates raises sensitivity to bandwidth …

Retroactive Eligibility Waivers: Innovative Or Ineffective?, Mohamed Kacem Benyamine

Theses and Dissertations

Medicaid’s retroactive eligibility provision covers medical expenses for beneficiaries up to 90 days before the application date. Retroactive eligibility insulates uninsured, low-income households from expensive healthcare emergencies. New Hampshire, Arkansas, and Iowa recently obtained waivers to end retroactive coverage. Using a difference-in-differences design and data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, I evaluate whether changes in retroactive coverage affect enrollment rates and self-reported health. Removing retroactive eligibility has no statistically significant effects on insurance enrollment or self-reported health. However, it does increase rates of access to a doctor by 1.0% overall and by 1.6% for women. Removing retroactive eligibility …

A Panel Quantile Model Via Correlated Random Effects Approach For Testing Pecking Order Theory, Zongwu Cai, Meng Shi, Wuqing Wu, Yue Zhao

Student Publications

This article investigates the relative importance of internal and external sources of funds in financing activities across different levels of investment activities by proposing a panel data quantile regression model with correlated random effects, accounting for heteroscedasticity in both firm-specific individuals and distribution of investment. A new estimation method, which takes the influence of disturbance into account, is proposed by using the integrated quasi-likelihood function for the conditional quantile model and Laplace approximation. The large sample theory for the proposed estimator and the corresponding asymptotic χ² test are investigated. A Monte Carlo simulation is conducted to examine the finite …

High-Resolution, Fast-Response Optical Fiber Temperature Sensor With A Large Measurement Range Based On Fiber-Tip Alumina Fabry-Pérot Interferometer, Ruimin Jie, Chen Zhu, Robert Abbott, Michael Davis, Xiong Zhang, Jie Huang

Electrical and Computer Engineering Faculty Research & Creative Works

We present an alumina-tip optical fiber Fabry-Pérot interferometric temperature sensor exhibiting high-temperature performance, rapid response, and high resolution. Fabricated by fusion splicing an alumina micro disk directly to a single-mode fiber, the sensor achieves robust, stable operation without complex fabrication processes or adhesives. Experimental evaluation confirms a measurement range extending to 1000°C, with sensitivity of 28.66 pm/°C, a resolution of 0.042°C, and a rapid response time of approximately 13 ms. Compared to state-of-the-art optical fiber FPI sensors, our alumina-tip sensor offers superior overall performance, effectively addressing critical demands for high-resolution, fast-response temperature measurement in extreme environments including aerospace, structural monitoring, …

The Economics Of Accountability: Learning From German Holocaust Reparations, Grace I. Gates

Scripps Senior Theses

Drawing on microdata from the Survey of Health, Aging, and Retirement in Europe, this study compares European Holocaust survivors who received reparations with similar Europeans who did not. It finds that, decades on, recipients are not systematically better or worse off on core outcomes like life satisfaction, savings, and debt. This is consistent with the argument that reparations restore parity rather than create new advantages. Where differences emerge, they point to stabilization in more vulnerable settings (e.g., lower likelihood of high debt in parts of Eastern Europe). The main takeaway from effective reparations is applicable to the United States debate: …

The Impact Of Student Achievement On Economic Growth: A Pisa-Based Analysis Of Gdp Per Capita, Emma Rose Nasr

Undergraduate Theses and Capstone Projects

This study investigates the extent to which international student achievement, measured through PISA assessments in mathematics, reading, and science, explains cross-country differences in economic development. Using an unbalanced panel data set combining PISA results from 2015, 2018, and 2022 with macroeconomic indicators from the World Development Indicators, I estimate multiple regression models, including pooled OLS, country and time fixed effects, and subsample analyses for developed and developing countries. Results from the pooled model indicate strong positive associations between PISA scores and GDP per capita, consistent with human capital theory. However, these relationships diminish under fixed effects specifications, suggesting that cross-country …

From Candidates To Coalitions: How Citizens United Changed Electoral Influence, Marc J. Broadhead

SPARK Symposium Presentations

This study investigates the relationship between campaign fundraising and electoral success in the United States House of Representatives, with a specific focus on the period surrounding the Citizens United v. FEC (2010) Supreme Court decision. Using a robust dataset of 30,539 observations from 2002 to 2024, I analyze the ability of total candidate receipts and individual contributions on the probability of victory. Using a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) framework and logistic regression models, the results demonstrate that while fundraising remains a highly significant predictor of winning ($p < 0.001$), the "return on investment" for direct candidate fundraising has significantly decreased in the post-Citizens United era. Specifically, the advantage held by "High Funders" decreased by 8.1% after 2010, suggesting a financial saturation effect where direct receipts are increasingly diluted by the increase of outside expenditures. Partisan disaggregation reveals a "Partisan Efficacy Gap," where Democratic candidates experienced a statistically significant decline in the effectiveness of their fundraising post-2010, while Republican candidates' effectiveness remained relatively stable. These findings suggest that the deregulation of campaign finance has not only increased the total volume of money in politics but has fundamentally altered the marginal utility of a candidate’s campaign war chest, shifting the levers of electoral influence toward outside spending and institutional actors.

Forecasting The Unpredictable: The Bullwhip Effect In The Toy Industry, Mannat Sethi

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis investigates the bullwhip effect, the amplification of demand variability as it moves upstream in a supply chain, with a focus on the toy industry, and comparative analysis with the technology and consumer goods sectors. Using annual data from 1993 to 2024, the study analyzes production and retail growth for Mattel, Hasbro, Intel, and Procter & Gamble to assess how variance between consumer demand and firm output has changed over time. Bullwhip ratios are calculated as the variance of production growth divided by the variance of retail growth across two periods: 1993–2008 and 2009–2024.

The findings show that toy …

From Touchbacks To Touchdowns: Analyzing The Impact Of The Nfl's New Kickoff Rule Changes, Joshua A. Klatt

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

My proposal analyzes the impact of the NFL's new dynamic kickoff rule changes that were implemented in the Fall of 2024. I use a two-way fixed effects differences-in-differences model using FBS collegiate Division 1 football teams as the control group, and NFL teams as the treatment group. Three of the most important outcome variables I analyze are touchdowns per kickoff return, average yards per kickoff return, and the number of kickoff returns per game.

Women's Work And Wealth: Measuring The Impact Of Incremental Liberations, 1850-1870, Hannah Kelly

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

Using a two-way fixed effects difference-in-difference model, this project analyzes data from the IPUMS Full Count census for 1850, 1860, and 1870 at a state level for 48 states. Four models assess the impact of property laws on women's real property holdings, labor force participation, household types, and real property values.

By quantifying the impact of various legal reforms on women's economic empowerment, this project fills a gap in the understanding of the intersection between law, society, and women's economic agency during a transformative period in pre-industrial American history. These impacts can implicate the effectiveness of legislative measures in advancing …

Dampak Kebijakan Hilirisasi Nikel: Kuasi-Eksperimen Di Sulawesi, Siddiq Robbani, Uka Wikarya

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

Studi ini menganalisis dampak kebijakan larangan ekspor bijih nikel (2014–2016) dan pembangunan smelter (2009–2021) terhadap PDRB per kapita dan konsumsi rumah tangga per kapita menggunakan data panel seimbang dari 81 kabupaten/kota di Sulawesi periode 2006–2021. Dampak kausal dan efek spillover dianalisis menggunakan metode Difference-in-Difference (DiD) dan Spatial Durbin Model (SDM). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan kebijakan larangan ekspor tidak berdampak pada kedua variabel. Pembangunan smelter justru berdampak negatif terhadap PDRB per kapita, tetapi menghasilkan efek spillover positif pada PDRBperkapita daerah tetangga dan efek spillover negatif terhadap konsumsi rumah tangga per kapita di daerah non-smelter.

Macroeconomic Resilience And Sentiment Dynamics In The Global Luxury Fashion Industry, Mehr Gupta

CMC Senior Theses

The global luxury fashion industry is often viewed as a sector where broad economic conditions intersect with individual spending behavior. Yet despite this common assumption, it remains unclear whether macroeconomic fluctuations meaningfully shape luxury firms’ financial performance. This thesis examines the relationship between four key macroeconomic indicators - consumer sentiment, disposable income, unemployment, and exchange rates - and firm-level quarterly revenue for twelve publicly listed luxury companies from the early 2000s through 2024. Firm financial data from S&P Capital IQ are matched with macroeconomic measures from the Federal Reserve (FRED), and the analysis employs a two-way fixed-effects framework with firm …

Factors Correlated With State-Level Variation In Grocery Consumption Changes During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Sun Young Byun

CMC Senior Theses

In this paper, I employ a two-part empirical strategy to explore the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on grocery consumption across U.S. states. First, I use the United States Department of Agriculture's Weekly Retail Food Sales data from 2018-2023 to estimate a time-series panel model. I use the results to test three hypotheses regarding state-level variation in consumption changes and impacts in the initial pandemic period, the remaining pandemic period, and the post-pandemic period. Second, I use the estimated state-level effects as dependent variables in cross-sectional regressions to test three hypotheses linking variation in state-level consumption patterns to economic, demographic, …