Econometrics Commons^™

Bespoke Realized Volatility: Tailored Measures Of Risk For Volatility Prediction, Andrew John Patton, Haozhe Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Standard realized volatility (RV) measures estimate the latent volatility of an asset price using high frequency data with no reference to how or where the estimate will subsequently be used. This paper presents methods for “tailoring” the estimate of volatility to the application in which it will be used. For example, if the volatility measure will be used in a specific parametric forecasting model, it may be possible to exploit that knowledge to construct a better measure of volatility. We use methods from machine learning to estimate optimal “bespoke” RVs for heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) and GARCH-X forecasting applications. We apply …

National Income And Marxian Categories, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes.

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). National income accounts and Marxian categories [Unpublished manuscript].

Math Appendix, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (n.d.). Mathematical appendix outlining use-value, value, direct prices, prices of production, and the iteration procedure [Unpublished manuscript]. Anwar Shaikh, PhD.

Behavioural And Socioeconomic Drivers Underlying Solar Adoption In Egypt’S Cairo And Giza: A Micro-Level Perspective, Maha Elhini, Hoda Hassaballa, Rasha Hammam

Economics

Although Egypt falls within the solar belt, solar energy use on the household level remains very sparse. This research examines the factors driving and hindering households’ willingness to shift from fossil fuels to solar energy. The study evaluates the socioeconomic determinants of households’ willingness to adopt photovoltaic (PV) solar panels, based on a random distribution of 301 questionnaires in Cairo and Giza – two of Egypt’s most densely populated governorates. Two models were used─ a Logistic Model and a Structural Equations Model (SEM) that regresses the willingness to install PV panels on household characteristics. For a deeper analysis of how …

Evaluating The Role Of Bank Specific, Macroeconomic, And Institutional Factors In Determining Banking Sector Performance: Evidence From South Asian Economies, Samia Nasreen, Mehwish Gulzar, Xuan-Hoa Nghiem, Saira Arsh

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study investigates the bank-specific, macroeconomic, and institutional factors affecting the performance of the banking sector specifically profitability and stability in South Asian countries from 2011 to 2020. Using a two-step system GMM estimation method on a balanced panel dataset, the study identifies key determinants, including bank size, operating expenses, economic growth, exchange rates, and economic freedom. Institutional factors, particularly corruption, significantly influence banking sector profitability and stability. The findings offer several policy recommendations to enhance banking sector performance in the region.

Age Structure And Inflation Dynamics In Pacific Island Economies, August Letlet, Karan Rai, Bhavesh Garg

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study uses the panel of six Pacific Island Countries (PICs) to investigate the relationship between changing age structures and inflation. The findings suggest that both aggregated and disaggregated shares of the working-age population exert disinflationary pressure. This supports the life cycle hypothesis, which postulates that people in their productive years tend to save and produce more than they consume, fostering economic stability and managing inflation. Conversely, the findings indicate that old-age dependency contributes to inflationary pressures. These insights underscore the importance of demographic dynamics in shaping inflation trends and provide valuable guidance for policymakers aiming to maintain price stability.

Disaggregated Economic Complexity And Inflation In Oecd Countries, Raymond L. Aor, Afees A. Salisu

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study probes the intricate relationship between economic complexity and inflation dynamics, an area that has been relatively under-researched despite the potential for economic complexity to predict inflation. We focus on selected OECD countries and use panel data from 1998 to 2021. Utilizing a Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (PARDL) model, we analyze both short- and long-term dynamics across various components of inflation. Our analysis encompasses both aggregate and disaggregated indicators of complexity, including ECI-Trade, ECI-Technology, and ECI-Research. The results indicate that the impact of economic complexity on inflation differs depending on the type of inflation and the time frame considered. …

Stated Preferences For Public Provision Of Services: Experimental Evidence From Latin America, Hernán Bejarano, Matias Busso, Juan Francisco Santos

ESI Working Papers

We study how individuals in six Latin American countries value public versus private provision of education and healthcare using a survey experiment. Respondents were randomly assigned to vignettes that vary income, service quality, and provider type. Reported service quality is the main driver of choices: the probability of selecting a private provider roughly doubles when reported quality of the public option falls from 80 to 20 percent, while income has a smaller effect. Higher institutional trust lowers the likelihood of switching to private providers but does not affect willingness to pay once individuals choose private provision.

New Asymptotics Applied To Functional Coefficient Regression And Climate Sensitivity Analysis, Qiying Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Ying Wang

Research Collection School Of Economics

A general asymptotic theory is established for sample cross moments of nonstationary time series, allowing for long-range dependence and local unit roots. The theory provides a substantial extension of earlier results on nonparametric regression that include near-cointegrated nonparametric regression as well as spurious nonparametric regression. Many new models are covered by the limit theory, among which are functional coefficient regressions in which both regressors and the functional covariate are nonstationary. Simulations show finite sample performance matching well with the asymptotic theory and having broad relevance to applications, while revealing how dual nonstationarity in regressors and covariates raises sensitivity to bandwidth …

Authoritarianism And Conspiracism Around The World, Valerie Capraro, Folca Panizza, Joseph A. Vitriol, Mikey Biddlestone, Andrè Krouwel, Yordan Kutiyski, Alberto López Ortega, Ana Ebert, Max Wan, Praveen Kujal, Karen M. Douglas, Christopher M. Federico, Jolanda Jetten, Sander Van Der Linden, Flávio Azevedo

ESI Working Papers

Authoritarian leaders frequently deploy conspiracy narratives to justify power concentration and delegitimize opponents, yet the link between authoritarianism and conspiracism remains underresearched. Integrating data across six studies from multiple international surveys (N=63,403; 20 countries), expert-coded party systems (71 countries; 14 datasets), and longitudinal panel studies, we demonstrate that individuals with stronger authoritarian orientations are consistently more prone to conspiracism across diverse cultures, political contexts, and time. These results remain robust when controlling for populist attitudes and multiple political, psychological, and demographic variables. The link between authoritarianism and conspiracism appears to constitute a durable and generalizable psychological relationship. This may help …

Existence Of Equilibrium Mechanisms In Generalized Principal-Agent Problems With Interacting Teams, Brian Roberson

ESI Working Papers

We study incentive design when multiple principals simultaneously design mechanisms for their respective teams in environments with strategic spillovers. In this environment, each principal’s set of incentive-compatible mechanisms—those that satisfy their own agents’ incentive compatibility constraints— depends on the mechanisms offered by the other teams. Following a classic example by Myerson (1982), such games may lack equilibrium due to discontinuities in the correspondence of incentive-compatible mechanisms. We establish general conditions for equilibrium existence by introducing a novel approach that involves tracking both the outcome distributions along the truthful-obedient path and the sets of outcome distributions achievable through unilateral deviations, thereby …

A General Limit Theory For Nonlinear Functionals Of Nonstationary Time Series, Qiying Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

New limit theory is provided for a wide class of sample variance and covariance functionals involving both nonstationary and stationary time series. Sample functionals of this type commonly appear in regression applications and the asymptotics are particularly relevant to estimation and inference in nonlinear nonstationary regressions that involve unit root, local unit root, or fractional processes. The limit theory is unusually general in that it covers both parametric and nonparametric regressions. Self-normalized versions of these statistics are considered that are useful in inference. Numerical evidence reveals interesting strong bimodality in the finite sample distributions of conventional self-normalized statistics similar to …

Dynamic Spatial Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects: M-Estimation And Inference Under Fixed Or Relatively Small T, Liyao Li, Ke Miao, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose an M-estimation method for dynamic spatial panel data models with interactive fixed effects based on (relatively) short panels. Unbiased estimating functions are constructed by adjusting the concentrated conditional quasi scores, given the initial values and with the factor loadings being concentrated out, to account for the effects of conditioning and concentration. Solving the estimating equations gives the M-estimators of the common parameters and common factors. Under fixed T, n-consistency and joint asymptotic normality of the M-estimators are established. Under T = o(n), the M-estimators of the common parameters are shown to be nT-consistent and asymptotically normal. For inference, …

Retroactive Eligibility Waivers: Innovative Or Ineffective?, Mohamed Kacem Benyamine

Theses and Dissertations

Medicaid’s retroactive eligibility provision covers medical expenses for beneficiaries up to 90 days before the application date. Retroactive eligibility insulates uninsured, low-income households from expensive healthcare emergencies. New Hampshire, Arkansas, and Iowa recently obtained waivers to end retroactive coverage. Using a difference-in-differences design and data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, I evaluate whether changes in retroactive coverage affect enrollment rates and self-reported health. Removing retroactive eligibility has no statistically significant effects on insurance enrollment or self-reported health. However, it does increase rates of access to a doctor by 1.0% overall and by 1.6% for women. Removing retroactive eligibility …

Testing Mean Stability Of Heteroskedastic Time Series, Violetta Dalla, Liudas Giraitis, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

Time series models are often fitted to the data without preliminary checks for stability of the mean and variance, conditions that may not hold in much economic and financial data, particularly over long periods. Ignoring such shifts may result in fitting models with spurious dynamics that lead to unsupported and controversial conclusions about time dependence, causality, and the effects of unanticipated shocks. In spite of what may seem as obvious differences between a time series of independent variates with changing variance and a stationary conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) process, such processes may be hard to distinguish in applied work using basic …

Three Essays In Cpi Bias And Health Economics, Auderta Amoako-Nuamah

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

The first essay estimates bias in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for elderly individuals in the United States using Engel curve methodology and household-level data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (1999–2023). The analysis focuses on how well the CPI reflects changes in the cost of living for older Americans, with particular attention to differences by gender and marital status. Results show that from 1999–2011, the CPI overstated the increase in the cost of living for both elderly and non-elderly households. In contrast, from 1999–2023, the CPI understated cost increases, with the bias generally larger for non-elderly households. Within …

From Financial Education To Financial Decisions: Evidence On College Financing, Personal Finance Behavior, And Student Attitudes, Dongwei Shi

University of Kentucky Doctoral Dissertations

I examine how financial education shapes students’ financial knowledge, college financing decisions, and longer-term financial behavior.

The first chapter studies whether taking high school financial education in Kentucky affects students’ college financing decisions using linked administrative records on high school course-taking and postsecondary financial aid. Using school-level financial education course availability as an instrument, the chapter evaluates whether exposure to financial education is associated with differences in student loan borrowing and receipt of need-based aid.

The second chapter examines whether exposure to state high school financial education mandates improves financial literacy and longer-term personal finance behavior among U.S. adults. Using …

A Panel Quantile Model Via Correlated Random Effects Approach For Testing Pecking Order Theory, Zongwu Cai, Meng Shi, Wuqing Wu, Yue Zhao

Student Publications

This article investigates the relative importance of internal and external sources of funds in financing activities across different levels of investment activities by proposing a panel data quantile regression model with correlated random effects, accounting for heteroscedasticity in both firm-specific individuals and distribution of investment. A new estimation method, which takes the influence of disturbance into account, is proposed by using the integrated quasi-likelihood function for the conditional quantile model and Laplace approximation. The large sample theory for the proposed estimator and the corresponding asymptotic χ² test are investigated. A Monte Carlo simulation is conducted to examine the finite …

The Economics Of Accountability: Learning From German Holocaust Reparations, Grace I. Gates

Scripps Senior Theses

Drawing on microdata from the Survey of Health, Aging, and Retirement in Europe, this study compares European Holocaust survivors who received reparations with similar Europeans who did not. It finds that, decades on, recipients are not systematically better or worse off on core outcomes like life satisfaction, savings, and debt. This is consistent with the argument that reparations restore parity rather than create new advantages. Where differences emerge, they point to stabilization in more vulnerable settings (e.g., lower likelihood of high debt in parts of Eastern Europe). The main takeaway from effective reparations is applicable to the United States debate: …

From Candidates To Coalitions: How Citizens United Changed Electoral Influence, Marc J. Broadhead

SPARK Symposium Presentations

This study investigates the relationship between campaign fundraising and electoral success in the United States House of Representatives, with a specific focus on the period surrounding the Citizens United v. FEC (2010) Supreme Court decision. Using a robust dataset of 30,539 observations from 2002 to 2024, I analyze the ability of total candidate receipts and individual contributions on the probability of victory. Using a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) framework and logistic regression models, the results demonstrate that while fundraising remains a highly significant predictor of winning ($p < 0.001$), the "return on investment" for direct candidate fundraising has significantly decreased in the post-Citizens United era. Specifically, the advantage held by "High Funders" decreased by 8.1% after 2010, suggesting a financial saturation effect where direct receipts are increasingly diluted by the increase of outside expenditures. Partisan disaggregation reveals a "Partisan Efficacy Gap," where Democratic candidates experienced a statistically significant decline in the effectiveness of their fundraising post-2010, while Republican candidates' effectiveness remained relatively stable. These findings suggest that the deregulation of campaign finance has not only increased the total volume of money in politics but has fundamentally altered the marginal utility of a candidate’s campaign war chest, shifting the levers of electoral influence toward outside spending and institutional actors.