Econometrics Commons^™

Bias In Estimating Multivariate And Univariate Diffusions, Xiaohu Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Multivariate continuous time models are now widely used in economics and finance. Empirical applications typically rely on some process of discretization so that the system may be estimated with discrete data. This paper introduces a framework for discretizing linear multivariate continuous time systems that includes the commonly used Euler and trapezoidal approximations as special cases and leads to a general class of estimators for the mean reversion matrix. Asymptotic distributions and bias formulae are obtained for estimates of the mean reversion parameter. Explicit expressions are given for the discretization bias and its relationship to estimation bias in both multivariate and …

Impact Of The Economic Downturn On Local Governments In South Carolina, William Tomes

Georgia Journal of Public Policy

Across the country local government revenues have decreased while operating costs such as fuel, materials, equipment, and health insurance costs have significantly increased. In addition to reduced revenues, interest earnings for city and county government investments are low. These factors combined have created a difficult financial arena in which local governments must operate. While economists are reporting signs of economic recovery, many city and county budgets are just now feeling the full brunt of the economic downturn that began in 2008. On a daily basis, news media nationwide report local governments addressing budget deficits by cutting services, eliminating positions, or …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — March 2011, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

A Note On The Interpretation Of Scale Values In Multidimensional Scaling Growth Analysis, Cody Ding

Education Sciences and Professional Programs Faculty Works

No abstract provided.

Building Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Models For Monetary Policy Analysis, Charles N. O. Mordi, Michael A. Adebiyi

Economic and Financial Review

Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) models are powerful tools that provide a coherent framework for policy discussion and analysis. In principle, they can help to identify sources of fluctuations, answer questions about structural changes, help to forecast and predict the effect of policy changes, and perform counterfactual experiments. Against this background, this paper aims at providing an insightful discussion on DSGE models by developing a simplified version of the models to explain the behavior of key macroeconomic variables in Nigeria namely: the growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP), headline inflation, exchange rate and the monetary policy rate. The estimated …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — February 2011, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Explosive Behavior In The 1990s Nasdaq: When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?, Peter C. B. Phillips, Yangru Wu, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

A recursive test procedure is suggested that provides a mechanism for testing explosive behavior, date stamping the origination and collapse of economic exuberance, and providing valid confidence intervals for explosive growth rates. The method involves the recursive implementation of a right-side unit root test and a sup test, both of which are easy to use in practical applications, and some new limit theory for mildly explosive processes. The test procedure is shown to have discriminatory power in detecting periodically collapsing bubbles, thereby overcoming a weakness in earlier applications of unit root tests for economic bubbles. An empirical application to the …

Corrigendum To "A Gaussian Approach For Continuous Time Models Of The Short Term Interest Rate", Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

An error is corrected in Yu and Phillips (2001) (Econometrics Journal, 4, 210-224) where a time transformation was used to induce Gaussian disturbances in the discrete time equivalent model. It is shown that the error process in this model is not a martingale and the Dambis, Dubins-Schwarz (DDS) theorem is not directly applicable. However, a detrended error process is a martingale, the DDS theorem is applicable, and the corresponding stopping time correctly induces Gaussianity. We show that the two stopping time sequences differ by O(a2), where a is the pre-specified normalized timing constant.

Monetary And Fiscal Policies: Ordinary Recessions And Financial Crises, Svetoslav I. Semov

Gettysburg Economic Review

This paper uses two different samples to study the effects of monetary and fiscal policies on the profiles of recessions and recoveries. Several results emerge from the econometric analysis presented. First, monetary policy during ordinary recessions and banking crises is a powerful tool with lasting effects that extend to recovery growth rates. However, the effect of monetary policy during financial crises is strongly diminished in the case of forbearance – banks left to function despite being technically insolvent. Second, the effectiveness of fiscal policy is reversed – it is a powerful tool during banking crises, but it does not seem …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — January 2011, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Metropolitan Growth Policies And New Housing Supply: Evidence From Australia's Capital Cities, Ralph B. Mclaughlin

Faculty Publications, Urban and Regional Planning

This paper empirically examines the relationship between house price change, metropolitan growth policies, and new housing supply in Australia's five major capital cities. Our hypothesis suggests capital cities with tighter regulations on new development will have fewer housing starts and price elasticities than those in less- regulated markets. The empirical procedure used in this paper utilises the Urban Growth Model of Housing Supply developed in Mayer and Somerville (2000a and 2000b) and employed in Zabel and Patterson (2006) by using quarterly data on housing approvals and house prices from 1996-2010. Data on metropolitan growth policies in Australia is borrowed from …

The Relationship Between Poverty And Crime: A Cross Section Analysis, Luke Fleming

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper compares the crime rates, poverty rates, and other economic statistics to determine if there is a relationship amongst the variables. The highest crime rates per capita in the world exist in developing countries; these countries also have very high rates of poverty. Is it a coincidence, or is there actually some substance to these facts? Crime is a complicated issue, and other variables like education, healthcare, and housing have to be taken into consideration. The results indicate that there is a relationship between certain types of crime and poverty, and that income inequality is significant to all types …

The Importance Of Good Governance In Achieving Economic Growth For Developing Nations: An Analysis Of Sub-Saharan Africa, Karl Turner

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper aims to expand on the idea that good governance is essential in sustaining growth in developing countries. I have chosen variables that are specific to determining the effect of good governance on sustained growth in several Sub-Saharan African nations. These variables will take into account the increased levels of corruption and manipulation that takes place in many of these regions. By analyzing different countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, I will be able to account for different economic and political conditions. My results show that although these countries differ in various aspects of macroeconomic policy, stable governance has been the …

A Comparative Analysis Of Development: Foreign Direct Investment And Remittances In Latin America, Jeffrey Denault

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

Economic growth in developing countries has long been thought to come from a variety of different economic factors. One of the most prevalent theories has been providing a country with high levels of foreign direct investment, encouraging the country to industrialize. Whilst there are obviously many other factors either inhibiting or encouraging a developing country’s growth, foreign direct investment has long been seen as the prime inflow of capital. However, in recent years, there has been a rapid increase in the transfer of funds to developing countries from migrant workers through remittances. This study explores the aggregate impact remittances have …

Foreign Aid And Growth In Select African Countries, Thomas Strong

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper analyzes the effects of foreign aid on economic growth in a set of African countries. This paper differs from previous literature in several ways; this paper analyzes a small sample set of aid-receiving African countries of varying distances from the equator. This paper also uses the most up-to-date data available, which will provide an insight into the 21st century conditions. Previewing the empirical results, this paper determines that aid, in the form of technical cooperation grants, has a significant, positive impact on growth.

Model Selection In Validation Sampling Data: An Asymptotic Likelihood-Based Lasso Approach, Chenlei Leng, Denis H. Y. Leung

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose an asymptotic likelihood-based LASSO approach for model selection in regression analysis when data are subject to validation sampling. The method makes use of an initial estimator of the regression coefficients and their asymptotic covariance matrix to form an asymptotic likelihood. This ``working'' objective function facilitates the formulation of the LASSO and the implementation of a fast algorithm. Our method circumvents the need to use a likelihood set-up that requires full distributional assumptions about the data. We show that the resulting estimator is consistent in model selection and that the method has lower prediction errors than a model that …

Assessing Post-Ada Employment: Some Econometric Evidence And Policy Considerations, Christopher L. Griffin Jr., John J. Donohue Iii, Michael Ashley Stein, Sascha Becker

Faculty Scholarship

This article explores the relationship between the Americans with Disabilities Act (“ADA”) and the relative labor market outcomes for people with disabilities. Using individual-level longitudinal data from 1981 to 1996 derived from the previously unexploited Panel Study of Income Dynamics (“PSID”), we examine the possible effect of the ADA on (1) annual weeks worked; (2) annual earnings; and (3) hourly wages for a sample of 7120 unique male household heads between the ages of 21 and 65 as well as a subset of 1437 individuals appearing every year from 1981 to 1996. Our analysis of the larger sample suggests the …

Nonparametric And Semiparametric Panel Econometric Models: Estimation And Testing, Liangjun Su, Aman Ullah

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper gives a selective review on the recent developments of nonparametric and semiparametric panel data models. We focus on the conventional panel data models with one-way error component structure, partially linear panel data models, varying coefficient panel data models, nonparametric panel data models with multi-factor error structure, and nonseparable nonparametric panel data models. For each area, we discuss the basic models and ideas of estimation, and comment on the asymptotic properties of different estimators and specification tests. Much theoretical and empirical research is needed in this emerging area

Estimation And Forecasting Of Dynamic Conditional Covariance: A Semiparametric Multivariate Model, Xiangdong Long, Liangjun Su, Aman Ullah

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose a semiparametric conditional covariance (SCC) estimator that combines the first-stage parametric conditional covariance (PCC) estimator with the second-stage nonparametric correction estimator in a multiplicative way. We prove the asymptotic normality of our SCC estimator, propose a nonparametric test for the correct specification of PCC models, and study its asymptotic properties. We evaluate the finite sample performance of our test and SCC estimator and compare the latter with that of PCC estimator, purely nonparametric estimator, and Hafner, Dijk, and Franses’s (2006) estimator in terms of mean squared error and Value-at-Risk losses via simulations and real data analyses.

Us Japan Trade Paper, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Notes on cointegration testing procedures for exchange rate models — Shaikh, A., PhD. Unpublished manuscript notes, dated December 2, 2011.
• Notes on OECD aggregate weighting and lag-selection criteria — Shaikh, A., PhD. Unpublished manuscript notes, undated.
• Explaining long term exchange rate behavior in the United States and Japan — Shaikh, A., and Antonopoulos, R. Levy Economics Institute of Bard College Working Paper No. 250, published 1998. This copy is a later revised version with data updated through 2008; the revision itself is undated.
• My XR theory: short run adjustments — Shaikh, A., PhD. Unpublished manuscript notes, dated …