Econometrics Commons^™

Linear Programming-Based Estimators In Simple Linear Regression, Daniel P. A. Preve, Marcelo C. Medeiros

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper we introduce a linear programming estimator (LPE) for the slope parameter in a constrained linear regression model with a single regressor. The LPE is interesting because it can be superconsistent in the presence of an endogenous regressor and, hence, preferable to the ordinary least squares estimator (LSE). Two different cases are considered as we investigate the statistical properties of the LPE. In the first case, the regressor is assumed to be fixed in repeated samples. In the second, the regressor is stochastic and potentially endogenous. For both cases the strong consistency and exact finite-sample distribution of the …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — October 2011, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Optimal Jackknife For Discrete Time And Continuous Time Unit Root Models, Ye Chen, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Maximum likelihood estimation of the persistence parameter in the discrete time unit root model is known for su§ering from a downward bias. The bias is more pronounced in the continuous time unit root model. Recently Chambers and Kyriacou (2010) introduced a new jackknife method to remove the Örst order bias in the estimator of the persistence parameter in a discrete time unit root model. This paper proposes an improved jackknife estimator of the persistence parameter that works for both the discrete time unit root model and the continuous time unit root model. The proposed jackknife estimator is optimal in the …

Non-Parametric Regression Under Location Shifts, Peter C. B. Phillips, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

Recent work by Wang and Phillips (2009b, 2011) has shown that ill-posed inverse problems do not arise in non-stationary non-parametric regression and there is no need for non-parametric instrumental variable estimation. Instead, simple Nadaraya–Watson non-parametric estimation of a cointegrating regression equation is consistent irrespective of the endogeneity in the regressor. The present paper shows that some closely related results apply in the case of structural non-parametric regression with independent data when there are continuous location shifts in the regressor. Some interesting cases are discovered where non-parametric regression is consistent, whereas parametric regression is inconsistent even when the true regression functional …

Tilted Nonparametric Estimation Of Volatility Functions With Empirical Applications, Ke-Li Xu, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article proposes a novel positive nonparametric estimator of the conditional variance function without reliance on logarithmic or other transformations. The estimator is based on an empirical likelihood modification of conventional local-level nonparametric regression applied to squared residuals of the mean regression. The estimator is shown to be asymptotically equivalent to the local linear estimator in the case of unbounded support but, unlike that estimator, is restricted to be nonnegative in finite samples. It is fully adaptive to the unknown conditional mean function. Simulations are conducted to evaluate the finite-sample performance of the estimator. Two empirical applications are reported. One …

Improved Estimates Of St. Louis Metro Employment, Howard Wall

Center for Applied Economics

Official employment data for the St. Louis metro area produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) are often unreliable and usually misleading. A major reason for this problem is that the BLS does not make full use of the data at its disposal. To address this, the Institute for the Study of Economics and the Environment (ISEE) at Lindenwood University has developed an alternative employment measure that makes better use of available data. More specifically, the ISEE employment series for the St. Louis MSA undergo rolling benchmark revisions four times a year as data become available. This is in …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — September 2011, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — August 2011, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Bayesian Hypothesis Testing In Latent Variable Models, Yong Li, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Hypothesis testing using Bayes factors (BFs) is known not to be well defined under the improper prior. In the context of latent variable models, an additional problem with BFs is that they are difficult to compute. In this paper, a new Bayesian method, based on decision theory and the EM algorithm, is introduced to test a point hypothesis in latent variable models. The new statistic is a by-product of the Bayesian MCMC output and, hence, easy to compute. It is shown that the new statistic is easy to interpret and appropriately defined under improper priors because the method employs a …

Simulated Maximum Likelihood Estimation For Latent Diffusion Models, Tore Selland Kleppe, Jun Yu, Hans J. Skaug

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper a method is developed and implemented to provide the simulated maximum likelihood estimation of latent diffusions based on discrete data. The method is applicable to diffusions that either have latent elements in the state vector or are only observed at discrete time with a noise. Latent diffusions are very important in practical applications in financial economics. The proposed approach synthesizes the closed form method of Ait-Sahalia (2008) and the efficient importance sampler of Richard and Zhang (2007). It does not require any infill observations to be introduced and hence is computationally tractable. The Monte Carlo study shows …

Testing For Multiple Bubbles, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shu-Ping Shi, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Identifying explosive bubbles that are characterized by periodically collapsing behavior over time has been a major concern in the literature and is of great importance for practitioners. The complexity of the nonlinear structure in multiple bubble phenomena diminishes the discriminatory power of existing tests, as evidenced in early simulations conducted by Evans (1991). Multiple collapsing bubble episodes within the same sample period make bubble diagnosis particularly difficult and complicate attempts at econometric dating. The present paper systematically investigates these issues and develops new procedures for practical implementation and surveillance strategies by central banks. We show how the testing procedure and …

Specification Sensitivities In Right-Tailed Unit Root Testing, Shu-Ping Shi, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Right-tailed unit root tests have proved promising for detecting exuberance in economic and financial activities. Like left-tailed tests, the limit theory and test performance are sensitive to the null hypothesis and the model specification used in parameter estimation. This paper aims to provide some empirical guidelines for the practical implementation of right-tailed unit root tests, focusing on the sup ADF test of Phillips, Wu and Yu (2011), which implements a right-tailed ADF test repeatedly on a sequence of forward sample recursions. We analyze and compare the limit theory of the sup ADF test under different hypotheses and model specifications. The …

The Impact Of Honor Codes And Perceptions Of Cheating On Academic Cheating Behaviors, Especially For Mba Bound Undergraduates, Heather M. O'Neill, Christian A. Pfeiffer

Business and Economics Faculty Publications

Researchers studying academic dishonesty in college often focus on demographic characteristics of cheaters and discuss changes in cheating trends over time. To predict cheating behavior, some researchers examine the costs and benefits of academic cheating, while others view campus culture and the role which honor codes play in affecting behavior. This paper develops a model of academic cheating based on three sets of incentives - moral, social and economic—and how they affect cheating behaviors. An on-line survey comprising 61 questions was administered to students from three liberal arts colleges in the USA in spring 2008, yielding 700 responses, with half …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — July 2011, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimation Of Discretely Observed Diffusions, Xiao Huang

Faculty Articles

This paper introduces a quasi-maximum likelihood estimator for discretely observed diffusions when a closed-form transition density is unavailable. Higher-order Wagner-Platen strong approximation is used to derive the first two conditional moments and a normal density function is used in estimation. Simulation study shows that the proposed estimator has high numerical precision and good numerical robustness. This method is applicable to a large class of diffusions.

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — June 2011, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Empirical Methods For Predicting Student Retention- A Summary From The Literature, Matt Bogard

Economics Faculty Publications

The vast majority of the literature related to the empirical estimation of retention models includes a discussion of the theoretical retention framework established by Bean, Braxton, Tinto, Pascarella, Terenzini and others (see Bean, 1980; Bean, 2000; Braxton, 2000; Braxton et al, 2004; Chapman and Pascarella, 1983; Pascarell and Ternzini, 1978; St. John and Cabrera, 2000; Tinto, 1975) This body of research provides a starting point for the consideration of which explanatory variables to include in any model specification, as well as identifying possible data sources. The literature separates itself into two major camps including research related to the hypothesis testing …

Empirical Methods-A Review: With An Introduction To Data Mining And Machine Learning, Matt Bogard

Economics Faculty Publications

This presentation was part of a staff workshop focused on empirical methods and applied research. This includes a basic overview of regression with matrix algebra, maximum likelihood, inference, and model assumptions. Distinctions are made between paradigms related to classical statistical methods and algorithmic approaches. The presentation concludes with a brief discussion of generalization error, data partitioning, decision trees, and neural networks.

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — May 2011, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Industrial Diversity And Economic Performance: A Spatial Analysis, Hoa Phu Duy Tran

College of Business: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

This study examines the linkage between industrial diversity and economic growth in the 48 contiguous states of the United States.  The period of analysis is 1992 through 2009.  Five diversity indices are considered and economic growth is measured as the growth rate of nonfarm earnings.  Other variables thought to influence economic growth are included in the analysis.  They are the growth rate of nonfarm employment, capital, and farm earnings.  Tests for the endogeneity of variables are conducted and the need for instrumental variable estimation methods is demonstrated.

First, I consider multivariate model that relates nonfarm earnings growth to the diversity …