The Economic Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On Emerging Markets,
2011
Claremont McKenna College
The Economic Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On Emerging Markets, Aanchal Kapoor
CMC Senior Theses
Recent spikes in oil prices have thrown light on how economic activity in emerging markets may be impacted by oil price shocks. This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the effect of oil price shocks on emerging markets. It tests for the existence of an asymmetrical relationship between oil prices and economic activity using a model developed by James Hamilton. It also assesses the impact of structural shocks to the real price of oil on output as proposed by Lutz Kilian. While our models find no consistent pattern within emerging markets, they do suggest that oil price shocks have a …
The Impact Of Oil Prices On The U.S. Economy,
2011
Claremont McKenna College
The Impact Of Oil Prices On The U.S. Economy, Jacob H. Bauch
CMC Senior Theses
Nine of the ten recessions since WWII have been preceded by relatively large and sudden increases in the price of oil. In this paper, I use time series analysis to forecast GDP growth using oil prices. I use the methodology from Hamilton (2009), and extend the dataset through 2010. Impulse response functions are used to analyze the historical performance of the model’s one-year-ahead forecasts. In April, 2011, the International Monetary Fund changed its forecast of 2011 GDP growth in the U.S. from 3.0% to 2.8% largely due to persistently high oil prices. My model suggests that the price increase in …
Strategic Behavior In Schelling Dynamics: A New Result And Experimental Evidence,
2011
Chapman University
Strategic Behavior In Schelling Dynamics: A New Result And Experimental Evidence, Juan Miguel Benito, Pablo Brañas-Garza, Penélope Hern´Andez, Juan A. Sanchis
ESI Working Papers
In this paper we experimentally test Schelling’s (1971) segregation model and confirm the striking result of segregation. In addition, we extend Schelling’s model theoretically by adding strategic behavior and moving costs. We obtain a unique subgame perfect equilibrium in which rational agents facing moving costs may find it optimal not to move (anticipating other participants’ movements). This equilibrium is far for full segregation. We run experiments for this extended Schelling model. We find that the percentage of strategic players dramatically increases with the cost of moving and that the degree of segregation depends on the distribution of rational subjects.
Double Bubbles In Assets Markets With Multiple Generations,
2011
Chapman University
Double Bubbles In Assets Markets With Multiple Generations, Cary Deck, David Porter, Vernon Smith
ESI Working Papers
We construct an asset market in a finite horizon overlapping-generations environment. Subjects are tested for comprehension of their fundamental value exchange environment, and then reminded during each of 25 periods of its declining new value. We observe price bubbles forming when new generations enter the market with additional liquidity and bursting as old generations exit the market and withdrawing cash. The entry and exit of traders in the market creates an M shaped double bubble price path over the life of the traded asset. This finding is significant in documenting that bubbles can reoccur within one extended trading horizon and, …
Cognitive Effort In The Beauty Contest Game,
2011
Chapman University
Cognitive Effort In The Beauty Contest Game, Pablo Brañas-Garza, Teresa García-Muñoz
ESI Working Papers
This paper analyzes cognitive effort in 6 different one-shot p-beauty games. We use both Raven and Cognitive Reáection tests to identify subjects' abilities. We find that the Raven test does not provide any insight on beauty contest game playing but CRT does: subjects with higher scores on this test are more prone to play dominant strategies.
Don’T Ask Me If You Will Not Listen: The Dilemma Of Participative Decision Making,
2011
Chapman University
Don’T Ask Me If You Will Not Listen: The Dilemma Of Participative Decision Making, Brice Corgnet, Roberto Hérnan-Gonzalez
ESI Working Papers
We study the effect of participative decision making in an experimental principalagent game, where the principal can consult the agent’s preferred option regarding the task to be undertaken in the final stage of the game. We show that consulting the agent was beneficial to principals as long as they followed the agent’s choice. Ignoring the agent’s choice was detrimental to the principal as it engendered negative emotions and low levels of transfers. Nevertheless, the majority of principals were reluctant to change their mind and adopt the agent’s proposal. Our results suggest that the ability to change one’s own mind is …
Transparency, Efficiency And The Distribution Of Economic Welfare In Pass-Through Investment Trust Games,
2011
Chapman University
Transparency, Efficiency And The Distribution Of Economic Welfare In Pass-Through Investment Trust Games, Thomas A. Rietz, Roman M. Sheremeta, Timothy W. Shields, Vernon Smith
ESI Working Papers
We design an experiment to examine welfare and behavior in a multi-level trust game representing a pass through investment in an intermediated market. In a repeated game, an Investor invests via an Intermediary who lends to a Borrower. A pre-experiment one-shot version of the game serves as a baseline and to type each subject. We alter the transparency of exchanges between non-adjacent parties. We find transparency of the exchanges between the investor and intermediary does not significantly affect welfare. However, transparency regarding exchanges between the intermediary and borrower promotes trust on the part of the investor, increasing welfare. Further, this …
Estimation And Forecasting Of Dynamic Conditional Covariance: A Semiparametric Multivariate Model,
2011
University of Cambridge
Estimation And Forecasting Of Dynamic Conditional Covariance: A Semiparametric Multivariate Model, Xiangdong Long, Liangjun Su, Aman Ullah
Research Collection School Of Economics
We propose a semiparametric conditional covariance (SCC) estimator that combines the first-stage parametric conditional covariance (PCC) estimator with the second-stage nonparametric correction estimator in a multiplicative way. We prove the asymptotic normality of our SCC estimator, propose a nonparametric test for the correct specification of PCC models, and study its asymptotic properties. We evaluate the finite sample performance of our test and SCC estimator and compare the latter with that of PCC estimator, purely nonparametric estimator, and Hafner, Dijk, and Franses’s (2006) estimator in terms of mean squared error and Value-at-Risk losses via simulations and real data analyses.
Model Selection In Validation Sampling Data: An Asymptotic Likelihood-Based Lasso Approach,
2011
National University of Singapore
Model Selection In Validation Sampling Data: An Asymptotic Likelihood-Based Lasso Approach, Chenlei Leng, Denis H. Y. Leung
Research Collection School Of Economics
We propose an asymptotic likelihood-based LASSO approach for model selection in regression analysis when data are subject to validation sampling. The method makes use of an initial estimator of the regression coefficients and their asymptotic covariance matrix to form an asymptotic likelihood. This ``working'' objective function facilitates the formulation of the LASSO and the implementation of a fast algorithm. Our method circumvents the need to use a likelihood set-up that requires full distributional assumptions about the data. We show that the resulting estimator is consistent in model selection and that the method has lower prediction errors than a model that …
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — December 2010,
2010
University of Rhode Island
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — December 2010, Leonard Lardaro
The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index
No abstract provided.
Estimating A Small-Scale Macroeconometric Model (Ssmm) For Nigeria: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (Dsge) Approach,
2010
Central Bank of Nigeria
Estimating A Small-Scale Macroeconometric Model (Ssmm) For Nigeria: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (Dsge) Approach, Charlse N.O Mordi, Michael A. Adebiyi
CBN Occasional Papers
This paper attempts to develop a small scale macroeconometric model for the Nigerian economy using dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) methodology. Particular attention is paid to using impulse responses to explain the dynamic properties of the model. This model incorporates expectation as an anchor in the forward-looking monetary policy objective of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). It captures most of the channels through which policymakers believe monetary policy can influence a small open economy with a managed floating exchange rate. The model was taken to the data by means of Bayesian estimation with the following major findings. First, although …
Testing Structural Change In Partially Linear Models,
2010
Singapore Management University
Testing Structural Change In Partially Linear Models, Liangjun Su, Halbert White
Research Collection School Of Economics
We consider two tests of structural change for partially linear time-series models. The first tests for structural change in the parametric component, based on the cumulative sums of gradients from a single semiparametric regression. The second tests for structural change in the parametric and nonparametric components simultaneously, based on the cumulative sums of weighted residuals from the same semiparametric regression. We derive the limiting distributions of both tests under the null hypothesis of no structural change and for sequences of local alternatives. We show that the tests are generally not asymptotically pivotal under the null but may be free of …
Need Singapore Fear Floating? A Dsge-Var Approach,
2010
Singapore Management University
Need Singapore Fear Floating? A Dsge-Var Approach, Hwee Kwan Chow, Paul D. Mcnelis
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper uses a DSGE-VAR model to examine the managed exchange-rate system at work in Singapore and asks if the country has any reason to fear floating the exchange rate with a Taylor rule inflation-targeting mechanism that uses the short term interest rate instead of the exchange rate as the benchmark monetary policy instrument. Our simulation results show that the use of a more flexible exchange rate system will reduce volatility in inflation and investment but consumption volatility will increase. Overall, there are neither signi cant welfare gains or losses in the regime shift. Given the highly open and trade …
Energy And Economic Growth: A State-Level Analysis,
2010
George Fox University
Energy And Economic Growth: A State-Level Analysis, Nathanael D. Peach
Faculty Publications - College of Business
No abstract provided.
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — November 2010,
2010
University of Rhode Island
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — November 2010, Leonard Lardaro
The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index
No abstract provided.
Bayesian Analysis Of Structural Credit Risk Models With Microstructure Noises,
2010
Singapore Management University
Bayesian Analysis Of Structural Credit Risk Models With Microstructure Noises, Shirley J. Huang, Jun Yu
Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business
In this paper a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique is developed for the Bayesian analysis of structural credit risk models with microstructure noises. The technique is based on the general Bayesian approach with posterior computations performed by Gibbs sampling. Simulations from the Markov chain, whose stationary distribution converges to the posterior distribution, enable exact finite sample inferences of model parameters. The exact inferences can easily be extended to latent state variables and any nonlinear transformation of state variables and parameters, facilitating practical credit risk applications. In addition, the comparison of alternative models can be based on devian information criterion …
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — October 2010,
2010
University of Rhode Island
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — October 2010, Leonard Lardaro
The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index
No abstract provided.
New York Camp Econometrics V Program,
2010
Syracuse University
New York Camp Econometrics V Program, Center For Policy Research
Camp Econometrics-Programs
No abstract provided.
Corporate Transparency, Private Information And Stock Price Synchronicity.,
2010
Universiti Malaya
Corporate Transparency, Private Information And Stock Price Synchronicity., Mohammed Sharaf Mohsen Shaiban
Student Works (2010-2019)
The issue of stock price synchronicity as a measure of stock price informativeness has recently attracted much research attention. Using cross-country data from 40 countries, this study investigates the relationship between corporate transparency (measured by reporting timeliness, financial analyst following and credibility of disclosures) and stock price synchronicity. In addition, this study investigates the moderating effects of reporting timeliness on the relationship between financial analyst and credibility of disclosures and stock price synchronicity. Specifically, it examines whether the relationship between financial analysts and disclosure credibility and stock price synchronicity is stronger or weaker given the range of timeliness of financial …
Smoothing Local-To-Moderate Unit Root Theory,
2010
Singapore Management University
Smoothing Local-To-Moderate Unit Root Theory, Peter C. B. Phillips, Tassos Magdalinos, Liudas Giraitis
Research Collection School Of Economics
A limit theory is established for autoregressive time series that smooths the transition between local and moderate deviations from unity and provides a transitional form that links conventional unit root distributions and the standard normal. Edgeworth expansions of the limit theory are given. These expansions show that the limit theory that holds for values of the autoregressive coefficient that are closer to stationarity than local (i.e. deviations of the form rho = 1 + c/n, where n is the sample size and c < 0) holds up to the second order. Similar expansions around the limiting Cauchy density are provided for the mildly explosive case. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
