Econometrics Commons^™

The Great Indian Growth Puzzle: What Caused A Spike In 2003?, Aditya Bindal

CMC Senior Theses

This paper will employ unit root tests for finding structural breaks endogenously among India’s key macroeconomic aggregate series, as well as their components and subcomponents. The same analysis will be repeated, wherever data are available, for states. The results from these unit root tests will then be used in regression models for national and state level data to understand the causes behind structural breaks. We find that breakpoints cluster around 1982 and 2003 for most series at the national and state level. The services component appears to be a promising candidate for explaining the 2003 structural break in some of …

Running Backs In The Nfl Draft And Nfl Combine: Can Performance Be Predicted?, Chris Blees

CMC Senior Theses

Berri and Simmons (2009) investigate the relationship between the NFL Combine and the NFL Draft. They find that a quarterback’s performance in the Combine can have a significant impact on that player’s draft position. However, they find that no known aspect of a quarterback before they are drafted is an indicator of success in the NFL. I examine if these relationships exist for the Running Back position. I find similar results to Berri and Simmons: that performance in the Combine does have an effect on that player’s draft position, but that no aspect of a running back’s pre-draft characteristics can …

The Economic Impact Of Oil Price Shocks On Emerging Markets, Aanchal Kapoor

CMC Senior Theses

Recent spikes in oil prices have thrown light on how economic activity in emerging markets may be impacted by oil price shocks. This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the effect of oil price shocks on emerging markets. It tests for the existence of an asymmetrical relationship between oil prices and economic activity using a model developed by James Hamilton. It also assesses the impact of structural shocks to the real price of oil on output as proposed by Lutz Kilian. While our models find no consistent pattern within emerging markets, they do suggest that oil price shocks have a …

The Impact Of Oil Prices On The U.S. Economy, Jacob H. Bauch

CMC Senior Theses

Nine of the ten recessions since WWII have been preceded by relatively large and sudden increases in the price of oil. In this paper, I use time series analysis to forecast GDP growth using oil prices. I use the methodology from Hamilton (2009), and extend the dataset through 2010. Impulse response functions are used to analyze the historical performance of the model’s one-year-ahead forecasts. In April, 2011, the International Monetary Fund changed its forecast of 2011 GDP growth in the U.S. from 3.0% to 2.8% largely due to persistently high oil prices. My model suggests that the price increase in …

An Analysis Of Remittance Tendencies Of Philippine Migrant Workers, Maryan S. Samson

CMC Senior Theses

In developing countries, remittances play a key role as a source of external finance. Remittances are a form of aid that migrant workers send back to their families, located in their home countries, in order to support the needs of the household. In about 25% of developing countries, remittances are larger than public and private capital flows combined (International Monetary Fund, 2009). In 2008, the Philippines economy was the 47^th largest economy in the world with a GDP of $322 billion dollars (Asian Development Bank, Fact Sheet). Remittances accounted for over 10% of the Philippine economy, making the Philippines …

Take Me Out Of The Ball Game: The Efficacy Of Public Subsidies In The Success Of Professional Sports Stadiums, Jonah Chodosh

CMC Senior Theses

This paper weights the relative advantages of multiple factors that lead to the success of professional sports stadiums in major markets, though a discussion of the arguments for and against public subsidies towards these projects. Using a logit statistical model, the paper determines that the two factors determining the highest likelihood of venue success include multiple tenants and access to mass transit. The analysis demonstrates that public subsidies towards stadiums don’t generate sufficient economic returns, and that successful stadiums can be created without using taxpayer funds.

Strategic Significance: A Model Of G-20 Membership, Patrick Eagan-Van Meter

CMC Senior Theses

The membership of the Group of 20 was selected without any official criteria. This paper investigates whether group membership can be explained through the consideration of several different factors that coincide with the mission of the organization. I found strong evidence that membership in the Group of 20 was based on some combination of land mass and economic output. The results demonstrate that these factors are highly predictive of group membership.

General Solution To Difference Equation, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• General solution difference equation, written by Anwar Shaikh, PhD, on April 22, 2011.
• General solution to differences equation, a manuscript file folder label inscribed with the identification code NA-23-63, prepared by Anwar Shaikh, PhD, on June 5, 2026.

Rulc/Rxr Update, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Notes on cointegration testing procedures for exchange rate models — Shaikh, A., PhD. Unpublished manuscript notes, dated December 2, 2011.
• Notes on OECD aggregate weighting and lag-selection criteria — Shaikh, A., PhD. Unpublished manuscript notes, undated.
• Explaining long term exchange rate behavior in the United States and Japan — Shaikh, A., and Antonopoulos, R. Levy Economics Institute of Bard College Working Paper No. 250, published 1998. This copy is a later revised version with data updated through 2008; the revision itself is undated.
• My XR theory: short run adjustments — Shaikh, A., PhD. Unpublished manuscript notes, dated …

Compustate Crisp Database, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Compustat/CRISP database contact notes by Anwar Shaikh
• Notes on CRISP/Compustat merged database and Wharton Research Data Services (WRDS) by Anwar Shaikh
• Notes on Capital-IQ service and university data subscriptions by Anwar Shaikh

Sexual Orientation Wage Differentials, Gian Spicuzza

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

Most early works find that homosexual and bisexual men suffer from a wage disadvantage and that lesbian and bisexual women earn a substantial wage premium compared to their heterosexual counterparts. Almost all earlier works use 1980-1990 General Social Survey data and Census 1990 data. This economic analysis uses more recent 2010 GSS data and finds statistically insignificant results that that both homosexual and bisexual men and women earn a wage differential. This is most likely attributed to the new terminology included in the 2010 GSS. For the first time, the GSS records the sexual orientation of the respondent whereas past …

Determinants Of A Country's Happiness, Timothy Caradonio

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper examines the relationship between several macroeconomic factors and the relative happiness of a country’s citizens. Inflation, GDP growth, real interest rate, and unemployment rate were selected as independent variables. Data on the dependent variable, the degree of happiness, was not available from other studies. Therefore, life satisfaction was used as the dependent variable which was obtained from the Happy Planet Index. This study was conducted using cross sectional data and the least squared method to determine if any of the independent variables are statistically significant to the happiness of a country.

Analysis Of Employer Of Last Resort In The United States: Implications Of Educational Attainments And Wage Rates, Benjamin Dionne

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper examines the feasibility and impact of an Employer of Last Resort (ELR) program in the United States. ELR could provide the US with a new policy direction in curbing poverty and creating growth. An ELR growth program would be run by the government to employ millions of unemployed and underemployed people in skilled and unskilled positions. This study aims to show that a well developed and administered ELR program could address the important issues facing the American economy and could lead to a significant economic impact. Using an ordinary least squared model the study establishes factors affecting the …

Cps, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Wage Equivalents (WEQ) and Sectoral Account Inquiries, by A. Shaikh (2010, August 24). Personal communication.
• Income and Outlays of Households and of Nonprofit Institutions Serving Households, by C. I. Mead, C. P. McCully, and M. B. Reinsdorf (2003, April). Survey of Current Business, 83(4), 13–17. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
• Housing Services in the National Economic Accounts, by N. Mayerhauser and M. Reinsdorf (2007, September 11). Bureau of Economic Analysis.
• Measurement of Gross Operating Surplus (GOS), by A. Shaikh (2009). Unpublished manuscript.
• Gross Operating Surplus, Imputed Interest, and Measures of Profitability, by …

Testing Heterogeneity In Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects, Qihui Chen

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This paper proposes a test for the slope homogeneity in large dimensional panel data models with interactive fixed effects based on a measure of goodness-of-fit (R²). We first obtain, for each cross-sectional unit, the R² from the time series regression of residuals on the constant and observable regressors and then construct the test statistic R² as an equally weighted average of the cross-sectional R²'s. R̄² is close to 0 under the null hypothesis of homogenous slopes and deviates away from 0 otherwise. We show that after being appropriately centered and scaled, R^{2 …}

Film Review Aggregators And Their Effect On Sustained Box Office Performance, Nicholas Krishnamurthy

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis will discuss the emerging influence of film review aggregators and their effect on the changing landscape for reviews in the film industry. Specifically, this study will look at the top 150 domestic grossing films of 2010 to empirically study the effects of two specific review aggregators. A time-delayed approach to regression analysis is used to measure the influencing effects of these aggregators in the long run. Subsequently, other factors crucial to predicting film success are also analyzed in the context of sustained earnings.

Using Ordinary Least Squares Regression And Quantile Regression To Test The Capital Asset Pricing Model And The Fama And French Model In The Australian Equity Market, Yixaun Rui

Theses : Honours

Many studies have tested the CAPM and the Fama and French model in the Australian security market using the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) method. However, this regression method just focuses on the relationship between means in the dataset, and equity market usually has some extreme situations in the tails. In this study, quantile regression will be used as well as OLS to provide a more comprehensive picture. This research will also compare the domestic and overseas indices in testing the CAPM and the Fama and French model. A twenty-year data sample composed of the 50 largest companies' equity returns will …

Strategic Behavior In Schelling Dynamics: A New Result And Experimental Evidence, Juan Miguel Benito, Pablo Brañas-Garza, Penélope Hern´Andez, Juan A. Sanchis

ESI Working Papers

In this paper we experimentally test Schelling’s (1971) segregation model and confirm the striking result of segregation. In addition, we extend Schelling’s model theoretically by adding strategic behavior and moving costs. We obtain a unique subgame perfect equilibrium in which rational agents facing moving costs may find it optimal not to move (anticipating other participants’ movements). This equilibrium is far for full segregation. We run experiments for this extended Schelling model. We find that the percentage of strategic players dramatically increases with the cost of moving and that the degree of segregation depends on the distribution of rational subjects.

Double Bubbles In Assets Markets With Multiple Generations, Cary Deck, David Porter, Vernon Smith

ESI Working Papers

We construct an asset market in a finite horizon overlapping-generations environment. Subjects are tested for comprehension of their fundamental value exchange environment, and then reminded during each of 25 periods of its declining new value. We observe price bubbles forming when new generations enter the market with additional liquidity and bursting as old generations exit the market and withdrawing cash. The entry and exit of traders in the market creates an M shaped double bubble price path over the life of the traded asset. This finding is significant in documenting that bubbles can reoccur within one extended trading horizon and, …

Transparency, Efficiency And The Distribution Of Economic Welfare In Pass-Through Investment Trust Games, Thomas A. Rietz, Roman M. Sheremeta, Timothy W. Shields, Vernon Smith

ESI Working Papers

We design an experiment to examine welfare and behavior in a multi-level trust game representing a pass through investment in an intermediated market. In a repeated game, an Investor invests via an Intermediary who lends to a Borrower. A pre-experiment one-shot version of the game serves as a baseline and to type each subject. We alter the transparency of exchanges between non-adjacent parties. We find transparency of the exchanges between the investor and intermediary does not significantly affect welfare. However, transparency regarding exchanges between the intermediary and borrower promotes trust on the part of the investor, increasing welfare. Further, this …