Score Tests For Inverse Gaussian Mixtures,
2011
University of Guelph
Score Tests For Inverse Gaussian Mixtures, A. F. Desmond, Zhenlin Yang
Research Collection School Of Economics
The mixed inverse Gaussian given by Whitmore (Scand. J. Statist., 13, 1986, 211–220) provides a convenient way for testing the goodness-of-fit of a pure inverse Gaussian distribution. The test is a one-sided score test with the null hypothesis being the pure inverse Gaussian (i.e. the mixing parameter is zero) and the alternative a mixture. We devise a simple score test and study its finite sample properties. Monte Carlo results show that it compares favourably with the smooth test of Ducharme (Test, 10, 2001, 271-290). In practical applications, when the pure inverse Gaussian distribution is rejected, one is interested in making …
Uniform Asymptotic Normality In Stationary And Unit Root Autoregression,
2011
Korea University - Korea
Uniform Asymptotic Normality In Stationary And Unit Root Autoregression, Chirok Han, Peter C. B. Phillips, Donggyu Sul
Research Collection School Of Economics
While differencing transformations can eliminate nonstationarity, they typically reduce signal strength and correspondingly reduce rates of convergence in unit root autoregressions. The present paper shows that aggregating moment conditions that are formulated in differences provides an orderly mechanism for preserving information and signal strength in autoregressions with some very desirable properties. In first order autoregression, a partially aggregated estimator based on moment conditions in differences is shown to have a limiting normal distribution that holds uniformly in the autoregressive coefficient rho, including stationary and unit root cases. The rate of convergence is root n when vertical bar rho vertical bar < 1 and the limit distribution is the same as the Gaussian maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), but when rho = 1 the rate of convergence to the normal distribution is within a slowly varying factor of n. A fully aggregated estimator (FAE) is shown to have the same limit behavior in the stationary case and to have nonstandard limit distributions in unit root and near integrated cases, which reduce both the bias and the variance of the MLE. This result shows that it is possible to improve on the asymptotic behavior of the MLE without using an artificial shrinkage technique or otherwise accelerating convergence at unity at the cost of performance in the neighborhood of unity. Confidence intervals constructed from the FAE using local asymptotic theory around unity also lead to improvements over the MLE.
Contributions Of Financial Sector Reforms And Credit Supply To Nigerian Agricultural Sector (1978-2009),
2011
Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension University of Port Harcourt, Nigeria
Contributions Of Financial Sector Reforms And Credit Supply To Nigerian Agricultural Sector (1978-2009), Anthony O. Onoja, M. E. Onu, S. Ajodo-Ohiemi
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study analyzed the trends and pattern of institutional credit supply to agriculture during pre- and post-financial reforms along with their determinants. It then compared the effects of reform policies on access to institutional credits in Nigerian agricultural sector before and after the reforms (1978 - 1985; and 1986 -2009). Relying mainly on time series data from CBN and NBS, it used ordinary least squares method (linear, semi-log and double log) to model the determinants of banking sector lending to the agricultural sector during the review period. The models were subjected to several econometric tests before accepting one. Chow test …
Determinants Of Foreign Reserves In Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach,
2011
Department of Economics, University of Maiduguri
Determinants Of Foreign Reserves In Nigeria: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach, David Irefin, Baba N. Yaaba
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
On global scale, central banks’ holdings of foreign reserves have escalated sharply in recent years. World international reserves holdings have risen significantly from US$1.2 trillion in 1995 to nearly US$10.0 trillion in June 2011. Dominant among these reserves are concentrated in the hands of few countries. Ten major holders of foreign reserves are mostly from Asia. Oil exporting countries in Africa and the Middle East are not left out in this trend. Nigeria’s foreign reserves rose from US$5.5 billion in 1999 to US$62.40 billion in July 2008, making Nigeria the twenty-fourth largest reserves holder in the world. This pace of …
Effects Of Exchange Rate Movements On Economic Growth In Nigeria,
2011
Department of Economics, University of Ibadan
Effects Of Exchange Rate Movements On Economic Growth In Nigeria, Eme O. Akpan, Johnson A. Atan
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This study investigates the effect of exchange rate movements on real output growth in Nigeria. Based on quarterly series for the period 1986 to 2010, the paper examines the possible direct and indirect relationship between exchange rates and GDP growth. The relationship is derived in two ways using a simultaneous equations model within a fully specified (but small) macroeconomic model. A Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) technique was explored. The estimation results suggest that there is no evidence of a strong direct relationship between changes in exchange rate and output growth. Rather, Nigeria’s economic growth has been directly affected by …
Exchange Rate Volatility In Nigeria: Consistency, Persistency & Severity Analyses,
2011
Datatric Research Consulting, Nigeria
Exchange Rate Volatility In Nigeria: Consistency, Persistency & Severity Analyses, Babatunde Adeoye, Akinwande A. Atanda
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
The adoption of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Structural Adjustment Programme (SAP) in 1986 resulted in the transition from fixed exchange rate regime to floating exchange rate regime in Nigeria. Ever since, the exchange rate of naira vis-à-vis the U.S dollar has attained varying rates all through different time horizons. On this basis, this study examines the consistency, persistency, and severity (degree) of volatility in exchange rate of Nigerian currency (naira) vis-a-vis the United State dollar using monthly time series data from 1986 to 2008. The standard Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) model was used to analyze the long-run consistency of …
Foreign Private Investment And Economic Growth In Nigeria: A Cointegrated Var And Granger Causality Analysis,
2011
1Department of Statistics Collage of Science and Technology. Waziri Umaru Federal Polytechnic Birnin Kebbi, Nigeria
Foreign Private Investment And Economic Growth In Nigeria: A Cointegrated Var And Granger Causality Analysis, F. Z. Abdullahi, S. Ladan, Haruna R. Bakari
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
This research uses a cointegration VAR model to study the contemporaneous long-run dynamics of the impact of Foreign Private Investment (FPI), Interest Rate (INR) and Inflation rate (IFR) on Growth Domestic Products (GDP) in Nigeria for the period January 1970 to December 2009. The Unit Root Test suggests that all the variables are integrated of order 1. The VAR model was appropriately identified using AIC information criteria and the VECM model has exactly one cointegration relation. The study further investigates the causal relationship using the Granger causality analysis of VECM which indicates a uni-directional causality relationship between GDP and FDI …
Banking Sector Credit And Economic Growth In Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation,
2011
Department of Economics, Modibbo Adama University of Technology, Yola, Nigeria
Banking Sector Credit And Economic Growth In Nigeria: An Empirical Investigation, Aniekan O. Akpansung, Sikiru J. Babalola
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
The paper examines the relationship between banking sector credit and economic growth in Nigeria over the period 1970-2008. The causal links between the pairs of variables of interest were established using Granger causality test while a Two-Stage Least Squares (TSLS) estimation technique was used for the regression models. The results of Granger causality test show evidence of unidirectional causal relationship from GDP to private sector credit (PSC) and from industrial production index (IND) to GDP. Estimated regression models indicate that private sector credit impacts positively on economic growth over the period of coverage in this study. However, lending (interest) rate …
Neither The Washington Nor Beijing Consensus: Developmental Models To Fit African Realities And Cultures,
2011
Central Bank of Nigeria
Neither The Washington Nor Beijing Consensus: Developmental Models To Fit African Realities And Cultures, Sanusi L. Sanusi
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
No abstract provided.
Banking Reform And Its Impact On The Nigerian Economy,
2011
Central Bank of Nigeria
Banking Reform And Its Impact On The Nigerian Economy, Sanusi L. Sanusi
CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)
No abstract provided.
Power Maximization And Size Control Of Heteroscedasticity And Autocorrelation Robust Tests With Exponentiated Kernels,
2011
University of California - San Diego
Power Maximization And Size Control Of Heteroscedasticity And Autocorrelation Robust Tests With Exponentiated Kernels, Yixiao Sun, Peter C. B. Phillips, Sainan Jin
Research Collection School Of Economics
Using the power kernels of Phillips, Sun, and Jin (2006, 2007), we examine the large sample asymptotic properties of the t-test for different choices of power parameter (ρ). We show that the nonstandard fixed-ρ limit distributions of the t-statistic provide more accurate approximations to the finite sample distributions than the conventional large-ρ limit distribution. We prove that the second-order corrected critical value based on an asymptotic expansion of the nonstandard limit distribution is also second-order correct under the large-ρ asymptotics. As a further contribution, we propose a new practical procedure for selecting the test-optimal power parameter that addresses the central …
Singapore Consumer’S Inflation Expectations And Creation Of Singapore Index Of Inflation Expectations,
2011
Singapore Management University
Singapore Consumer’S Inflation Expectations And Creation Of Singapore Index Of Inflation Expectations, Aurobindo Ghosh, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
The aim of this report is to highlight a broad spectrum of issues that brings about the measurement of the disagreement and the uncertainity and the formation of inflation expectations among economic agents in Singapore.
The Science Of Public Health Delivery: Evidence, Uncertainties & Research Needs,
2011
University of Kentucky
The Science Of Public Health Delivery: Evidence, Uncertainties & Research Needs, Glen P. Mays
Health Management and Policy Presentations
Policy initiatives to reform the nation's health system increasingly recognize the need to incorporate public health and prevention strategies. The nation's delivery system for public health, however, varies widely across states and communities in its structure, authority, and capabilities. This session examines research from the growing field of public health services and systems research to identify directions for improving public health delivery.
Estimating The Value Of Public Health Services & Systems: Evidence, Uncertainties, And Research Needs,
2011
University of Kentucky
Estimating The Value Of Public Health Services & Systems: Evidence, Uncertainties, And Research Needs, Glen P. Mays
Health Management and Policy Presentations
The Affordable Care Act authorized the largest expansion in federal funding for public health services and delivery systems in decades. These provisions, designed to support programs and services that promote health and prevent disease and injury on a population-wide basis, remain controversial because of uncertainties regarding their effectiveness in improving health and constraining medical cost growth. This session examines a series of recent studies to shed light on the health and economic value of spending on public health.
Disparities Research In Public Health Pbrns,
2011
University of Kentucky
Disparities Research In Public Health Pbrns, Glen P. Mays
Health Management and Policy Presentations
Public health agencies are well positioned within the health system to play key roles in addressing oral health issues on a population-wide basis, However, current evidence reveals wide geographic variation in the delivery of public health interventions for oral health promotion. This session explores the factors contributing to this variation, and it highlights studies underway through the Public Health Practice-Based Research Networks (PBRNs) to produce more and better evidence about public health delivery and impact.
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — November 2011,
2011
University of Rhode Island
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — November 2011, Leonard Lardaro
The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index
No abstract provided.
Double Asymptotics For An Explosive Continuous Time Model,
2011
Singapore Management University
Double Asymptotics For An Explosive Continuous Time Model, Xiaohu Wang, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
This paper develops a double asymptotic limit theory for the persistent parameter (θ) in an explosive continuous time model with a large number of time span (N) and a small number of sampling interval (h). The limit theory allows for the joint limits where N → ∞ and h → 0 simultaneously, the sequential limits where N → ∞ is followed by h → 0, and the sequential limits where h → 0 is followed by N → ∞. All three asymptotic distributions are the same. The initial condition, either fixed or random, appears in the limiting distribution. The simultaneous …
Dating The Timeline Of Financial Bubbles During The Subprime Crisis,
2011
Singapore Management University
Dating The Timeline Of Financial Bubbles During The Subprime Crisis, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
A new recursive regression methodology is introduced to analyze the bubble characteristics of various financial time series during the subprime crisis. The methods modify a technique proposed in Phillips, Wu, and Yu (2011) and provide a technology for identifying bubble behavior with consistent dating of their origination and collapse. The tests serve as an early warning diagnostic of bubble activity and a new procedure is introduced for testing bubble migration across markets. Three relevant financial series are investigated, including a financial asset price (a house price index), a commodity price (the crude oil price), and one bond price (the spread …
Specification Sensitivity In Right-Tailed Unit Root Testing For Explosive Behavior,
2011
Singapore Management University
Specification Sensitivity In Right-Tailed Unit Root Testing For Explosive Behavior, Peter C. B. Phillips, Shu-Ping Shi, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
Right-tailed unit root tests have proved promising for detecting exuberance in economic and financial activities. Like left-tailed tests, the limit theory and test performance are sensitive to the null hypothesis and the model specification used in parameter estimation. This paper aims to provide some empirical guidelines for the practical implementation of right-tailed unit root tests, focusing on the sup ADF test of Phillips, Wu and Yu (2011), which implements a right-tailed ADF test repeatedly on a sequence of forward sample recursions. We analyze and compare the limit theory of the sup ADF test under deferent hypotheses and model specifications. The …
Specification Testing For Nonparametric Structural Models With Monotonicity In Unobservables,
2011
Boston College
Specification Testing For Nonparametric Structural Models With Monotonicity In Unobservables, Stefan Hoderlein, Liangjun Su, Halbert White
Research Collection School Of Economics
Monotonicity in a scalar unobservable is a now common assumption in economic theory and applications. Among other things, it allows one to recover the underlying structural function from certain conditional quantiles of observables. Nevertheless, monotonicity is a strong assumption, and its failure can have substantive adverse consequences for structural inference. So far, there are no generally applicable nonparametric specification tests designed to detect monotonicity failure. This paper provides such a test for cross-section data. We show how to exploit an exclusion restriction together with a conditional independence assumption, plausible in a variety of applications, to construct a test. Our statistic …
