Econometrics Commons^™

New York Camp Econometrics Vii Program, Center For Policy Research

Camp Econometrics-Programs

No abstract provided.

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — April 2012, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Gender Discrimination Across U.S. States: What Has Changed Over The Past Thirty Years?, Joshua Ballance

Honors Projects in Economics

This study examines changes in the gender wage gap and level of gender discrimination in the United States over the period1980-2010 at the national and state levels. Using data from the U.S. Current Population Survey, this study applies the Blinder-Oaxaca Decomposition to separate the explained and unexplained variations in the gender pay gap. The unexplained variation proxies the level of gender discrimination faced by U.S. workers. The wage equation estimated utilizes the Heckman methodology to control for sample selection bias. Results with and without sample selectivity controls are included in this paper.

This study reports the gender pay gap in …

Does Information Lead To Household Electricity Conservation?, Devon M. Kristiansen

Economics Honors Projects

This paper estimates the effect of information on residential electricity consumption. Household reading expenditure, education level of the household head, and state “green” electricity pricing program participation rate represent the probability that a household has encountered information relating the carbon emission externalities of energy consumption and human-driven climate change. Reading expenditure has a significant negative effect on household electricity consumption. Initial increases in educational attainment increase electricity consumption, but education beyond high school reduces it. The predicted social norm effect of green pricing participation is insignificant.

Semiparametric Gmm Estimation Of Spatial Autoregressive Models, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose semiparametric GMM estimation of semiparametric spatial autoregressive (SAR) models under weak moment conditions. In comparison with the quasi-maximum-likelihood-based semiparametric estimator of Su and Jin (2010), we allow for both heteroscedasticity and spatial dependence in the error terms. We derive the limiting distributions of our estimators for both the parametric and nonparametric components in the model and demonstrate the estimator of the parametric component has the usual -asymptotics. When the error term also follows an SAR process, we propose an estimator for the parameter in the SAR error process and derive the joint asymptotic distribution for both spatial parameters. …

A Semiparametric Stochastic Volatility Model, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper the correlation structure in the classical leverage stochastic volatility (SV) model is generalized based on a linear spline. In the new model the correlation between the return and volatility innovations is time varying and depends nonparametrically on the type of news arrived to the market. Theoretical properties of the proposed model are examined. The model estimation and comparison are conducted by Bayesian methods. The performance of the estimates are examined in simulations. The new model is fitted to daily and weekly US data and compared with the classical SV and GARCH models in terms of their in-sample …

The National Hockey League: An Econometric Analysis Of Attendance, Kendrick A. Hotte

Honors Theses

The National Hockey League (NHL) and professional sports as a whole are interesting to study when econometric models are applied. First, a thorough examination of current literature concerning both professional sports and econometrics will be reviewed. In addition, a full description of the data and its accompanying sources are discussed. Then, through the use of an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and hypothesis testing, the role of attendance throughout the NHL as a function of win percentage is empirically tested. Using a demand equation for the attendance of hockey games over the past 15 years, this paper will focus on …

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — March 2012, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

On The Intraday Periodicity Duration Adjustment Of High-Frequency Data, Wu Zhengxiao

Research Collection School Of Economics

In the last decade, intensive studies on modeling high frequency financial data at the transaction level have been conducted. In the analysis of high-frequency duration data, it is often the first step to remove the intraday periodicity. Currently the most popular adjustment procedure is the cubic spline procedure proposed by Engle and Russell (1998). In this article, we first carry out a simulation study and show that the performance of the cubic spline procedure is not entirely satisfactory. Then we define periodicity point processes rigorously and prove a time change theorem. A new intraday periodic adjustment procedure is then proposed …

Estimating Medical Cost Offsets Attributable To Public Health Spending, Glen P. Mays

Health Management and Policy Presentations

Uncertainty about the magnitude and timing of economic returns associated with spending on public health services has contributed to policy debates about the optimal role of the federal government in financing these services.

Public Health Spending, Preventable Outcomes, And Medical Cost Offsets: Questions For Health Reform, Glen P. Mays

Health Management and Policy Presentations

Uncertainty continues to surround the health and economic effects that can be expected from increased federal spending on public health and prevention strategies. Recent research provides some insight into the question of whether spending on public health strategies can offset the need for future spending on medical care.

Does The Economy Determine The President? A Regression Model For Predicting Us Presidential Elections, Roy K. Roth

Undergraduate Economic Review

There is a prevalent belief that the economy determines the President. If the economy is good, the President keeps his job, if it is bad, he is out. A large body of econometric literature has been published on this topic. This paper takes a new approach. I look not at how the popular vote changes with economic conditions, but how the electoral vote changes. I further examine how these changes affect the probability that the incumbent party stays in office. I find that economic conditions may not be as important as they have been purported to be.

Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — February 2012, Leonard Lardaro

The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index

No abstract provided.

Pricing For Goodwill: A Threshold Quantile Regression Approach, Heng Ju, Liangjun Su, Pai Xu

Research Collection School Of Economics

In the absence of other effective trust systems, an agent's reputation status becomes a critical factor in online transactions. A higher reputation category may give sellers an advantage in competition on online trading platforms. It is also possible that such reputation benefits provide sufficient incentives for sellers to adjust their pricing behavior. We here propose a simple economic model in which an online seller maximizes the sum of the profit from current sales and the possible future gain from a targeted higher reputation level. We show that the model can predict a jump in optimal pricing behavior. We adopt a …

The Et Interview: A Conversation With Professor Eric Ghysels, Peter C. B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Eric Ghysels is the Bernstein Distinguished Professor of Economics and Professor of Finance at University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. In 2008, Eric Ghysels and Robert Engle (2003 Nobel co-Laureate in Economic Science with Clive Granger) founded the Society for Financial Econometrics (SoFiE), establishing a global network of academics and practitioners dedicated to the fast-growing field of financial econometrics. In June 2010, Eric visited the Centre for Financial Econometrics (CoFiE) and the Sim Kee Boon Institute (SKBI) of Financial Economics at Singapore Management University. During his visit we conversed with him about SoFiE and the growing toolroom of financial …

Testing For Common Trends In Semi-Parametric Panel Data Models With Fixed Effects, Yonghui Zhang, Liangjun Su, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper proposes a non-parametric test for common trends in semi-parametric panel data models with fixed effects based on a measure of non-parametric goodness-of-fit (R2). We first estimate the model under the null hypothesis of common trends by the method of profile least squares, and obtain the augmented residual which consistently estimates the sum of the fixed effect and the disturbance under the null. Then we run a local linear regression of the augmented residuals on a time trend and calculate the non-parametric R2 for each cross-section unit. The proposed test statistic is obtained by averaging all cross-sectional non-parametric R2s, …

Bayesian Hypothesis Testing In Latent Variable Models, Yong Li, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

Hypothesis testing using Bayes factors (BFs) is known not to be well defined under the improper prior. In the context of latent variable models, an additional problem with BFs is that they are difficult to compute. In this paper, a new Bayesian method, based on the decision theory and the EM algorithm, is introduced to test a point hypothesis in latent variable models. The new statistic is a by-product of the Bayesian MCMC output and, hence, easy to compute. It is shown that the new statistic is appropriately defined under improper priors because the method employs a continuous loss function. …

The Staffing Of Presidential Assistants: Their Effect On Presidential Success In The House Of Representatives, Nicholas R. Jesteadt

Gettysburg Economic Review

This paper examines the Congressional success of United States Presidents based on the reported Congressional Quarterly Presidential Box Scores. Their individual success is examined as an effect of the senior staff member a President chooses and whether they are chosen from the campaign, personal experience, or previous administrations. It is important for a President to consider the origins of these staffers as these Assistants to the President act as the body of the President’s administration. The econometric analysis presented reveals several interesting results. First, the predominance of a President to choose staff members from his campaign shows no significant impact …

The Impact Of The American Recovery And Reinvestment Plan On The Job Market, Matthew Schur

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper will investigate the impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on the job market. The ARRA, also known as the Stimulus or the Recovery Act, is a stimulus package that was passed by the 111th United States Congress in February 2009 and signed into law on the 17th of February by President Barack Obama. The primary focus of this bill was to save and create jobs in response to the 2000’s recession that our economy faced. We will evaluate impact of the ARRA by using the latest census bureau data of each state and regression analysis. Our …

The Gettysburg Economic Review, Volume 6, Spring 2012

Gettysburg Economic Review

No abstract provided.