Econometrics Commons^™

Redefining The Relevant Market: Abandonment Or Return To Brown Shoe, Daniel A. Hanley

Dickinson Law Review (2017-Present)

Defining a relevant market is arguably the most important requirement in antitrust litigation. Between the 1890s and the 1940s, defining a relevant market was a simple and generalized process, typically undertaken by courts as a cursory matter. However, in the 1960s, defining relevant markets became a centerpiece of antitrust litigation. The modern method originates from the Supreme Court’s landmark 1962 decision in Brown Shoe v. United States. The method commonly known as the Brown Shoe test requires judges to construct relevant markets by carefully analyzing accessible and understandable qualitative data, such as internal corporate documents and consumer surveys. Since the …

Determinants Of Remote Suitability Of Jobs And Residential Distance From The Workplace After The Covid-19 Pandemic, Abizer Mamnoon

CMC Senior Theses

Immediately before the COVID-19 pandemic, workers performed 14% of their paid hours from home, but this figure increased to 38% after the pandemic (Chen et al. 2023). This thesis contributes to our understanding of the determinants of remote work and the factors affecting how far an individual lives from the workplace in the post-pandemic period.

I use 1.95 million observations of worker-specific LinkedIn data from August 2023. I construct a measure of remote suitability using Dingel and Neiman’s (2020) method to assign each job title a remote suitability score based on the associated occupation. I use a Tobit regression to …

The Solar Power Of Pricing: Does Electricity Pricing Policy Drive Residential Solar Demand?, Talia De Beer

CMC Senior Theses

Solar energy has emerged as a pivotal renewable energy source, experiencing significant growth in the United States over the past two decades. As policymakers continue to develop and refine the best methods to incentivize solar adoption while reflecting true costs and potential equity concerns, this paper seeks to evaluate the impact of changes in solar pricing policies on residential solar installations. Employing a difference-in-differences regression model, this study examines the effects of policy changes on both the system capacity and number of installations of adoption in three Western states that have transitioned away from traditional Net Energy Metering (NEM) policies–Arizona, …

China’S Economic Slowdown: How Does It Affect New Zealand’S Economy?, Haven Qin

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines the impact of China’s economic slowdown on New Zealand’s economy, focusing on sector-specific linkages across real estate, the stock market, exports, and import prices. As a small open economy, New Zealand’s deep integration with global markets makes it particularly vulnerable to external shocks from its largest trading partner. Employing OLS regression models and monthly economic data, this study reveals the nuanced pathways through which China’s economic conditions influence New Zealand. Key findings include the sensitivity of New Zealand’s housing market to Chinese property investments and Chinese stock market performance, the influence of Chinese financial market performance on …

When Consumers See It Coming: How Anticipation Affects The Domestic Cost Of Tariffs, Pierce D. Sanderson

CMC Senior Theses

Tariffs implemented by President Trump in 2018 were unexpected and significant, incurring large costs to U.S. consumers. This study examines the effect of tariff anticipation on price, quantity, and value effect on imports in the United States. Specifically, it focuses on tariffs implemented during Obama’s second term in office from 2012 to 2016 on the automotive, technology, and manufacturing industries. The findings present a significant divergence from the literature on the effects of 2018 tariffs, finding a near full pass-through of tariffs to foreign exporter prices rather than U.S. consumers. Specifically, a one percent increase in tariffs resulted in a …

Batteries For Grid Stability: The Impact Of Utility-Scale Battery Installation On Electricity Price Volatility In California, Hannah Vestring

CMC Senior Theses

As renewable energy penetration increases, driven largely by solar, electricity prices have become increasingly volatile due to the intermittency of supply, increasing the need for price stabilizing interventions. This study examines the impact of cumulative additions of utility-scale battery energy storage systems (BESS) capacity on real-time market (RTM) electricity price volatility within the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) between 2020 and 2024, taking a long-term, system-wide perspective on storage deployment. Using an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression framework, the analysis finds that cumulative BESS capacity is significantly associated with reduced price volatility in the benchmark model, with results remaining robust …

Clutch Or Comfortable? How Franchise Tags Influence Qb Performance In The Nfl, Justin Edwards

CMC Senior Theses

Abstract

The National Football League (NFL) has a type of contract known as the Franchise Tag. The Franchise Tag is a one-year contractual extension often used when a player and a team cannot come to terms regarding the details of a contract extension. Usually, the player expects to be paid more than the organization can afford that year due to restrictions imposed by the salary cap. Because of this, Franchise-Tagged players tend to have a greater incentive to perform well in hopes of being signed into a long-term contract. My findings show that the incentive of future earnings and job …

Total Factor Productivity Industri Mikro Dan Kecil Di Kawasan Timur Indonesia, Marella Dea Manganti, Budyanra Budyanra

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

The Micro and Small Industries (MSIs) sector, part of non-oil and gas processing industry, is a key driver of the Indonesia’s economy. However, in Eastern Indonesia (EI), the number of industries and workers in the MSIs sector does not match the level of output, unlike in Western Indonesia, where the industry is more stable and aligned. This difference is mainly due to variations in technological progress, known as Total Factor Productivity (TFP). This study analyzes TFP in the MSIs sector across provinces in EI from 2013 to 2022 using panel data regression. Results show that South Sulawesi has the highest …

The Effect Of Regime Type On Development Outcomes In Bangladesh, Simar Malhotra

Scripps Senior Theses

Bangladesh has been characterized by a turbulent political state since gaining its independence in 1971, moving back and forth between a democracy and autocracy. With this, they have also experienced immense gains in development over the last thirty years, especially within health, education, and female empowerment. This thesis exploits Bangladesh’s unique regime-switching setting to measure the impact of a shift from autocracy to democracy on child health, maternal health, and women’s autonomy within a single-country context. Using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) Program, the analysis finds that a shift from an autocracy to a democracy increases the …

Reporting And Underreporting Of Sex Harassment In United States Public Schools: A Mixed Methods Analysis, Erica S. Matthisen

Scripps Senior Theses

Using mixed methods, I assess the factors that contribute to the underreporting of sex harassment in elementary and secondary educational environments. I first use regional Title IX data to assess the impacts of Title IX resource access on several indicator variables, finding a positive impact on allegations and discipline cases when a harassment/bullying policy was made available online. Next, I seek to identify other factors that contribute to reporting or underreporting. To that end, I conduct organizational analysis and informational interviews. From the organizational analysis, I identify factors that contribute to the normalization and underreporting of sex harassment and strategies …

Electric Commuter Rail Access In Residential Communities: A Hedonic Analysis Case Study Of Nonmarket Value Creation, Catherine A. Sunding

Scripps Senior Theses

This study quantifies the price impact on houses of a new electric commuter rail line outside of Denver, Colorado. I find a negative price impact corresponding to increased accessibility and proximity of homes to the rail stations due to the negative externalities associated with the track. I also discover an even larger negative price impact of the rail stations in the years before the stations opened to the public, indicating possible endogeneity in the location of the rail line. I attempt to account for this endogeneity using instrumental variable analysis due to a limitation of house pricing data before 2016.

Assessing High-Speed Rail (Hsr) Policy And Politics In Washington State: Avoiding The Mistakes Of The Past, Landen K. Hashimura

All Master's Theses

While international standard high-speed rail (HSR) has yet to be successfully completed in the US, there is a national interest in the topic, as evidenced by recent federal initiatives to research HSR across various corridors. The Cascadia Corridor has been identified as a region with high potential for HSR, leading to an ongoing study in the State of Washington. Given the tumultuous history of American HSR development, the Cascadia HSR initiative needs to avoid the mistakes of the past. Two major contributing factors to this failure to build HSR are uneven political support for HSR and poor policy frameworks. Despite …

Three Essays On Sustainability Economics, Hélène Flore Nguemgaing

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

As global economies face increasing resource dependencies and supply chain challenges, it becomes essential to understand the vulnerabilities that threaten economic stability. This dissertation investigates three empirical issues in agribusiness and critical minerals using econometric models to estimate the following: 1) the impact of supply chain disruptions on stock market returns during COVID-19; 2) the extraction of rare earth elements from acid mine drainage treatment by investigating the impacts of ownership and legislation in West Virginia and Pennsylvania; 3) China-to�FOBb (Free-on-Board) price transmission in rare earth elements markets: a copula-based dynamic tail dependence analysis.

The first essay evaluates how events …

Maximum Trimmed Likelihood Estimation For Discrete Multivariate Vasicek Processes, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Michael Pokojovy, Andrews T. Anum, Ebenezer Nkum

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

The multivariate Vasicek model is commonly used to capture mean-reverting dynamics typical for short rates, asset price stochastic log-volatilities, etc. Reparametrizing the discretized problem as a VAR(1) model, the parameters are oftentimes estimated using the multivariate least squares (MLS) method, which can be susceptible to outliers. To account for potential model violations, a maximum trimmed likelihood estimation (MTLE) approach is utilized to derive a system of nonlinear estimating equations, and an iterative procedure is developed to solve the latter. In addition to robustness, our new technique allows for reliable recovery of the long-term mean, unlike existing methodologies. A set of …

Analyzing Real-Time Behavioral Shifts In Response To Tourism Policy Using Google Trends Data And Advanced Difference-In-Differences (Did) Methods, Aaron Bradley Scott

Doctor of Business Administration Dissertations

Google Trends is a publicly available aggregate search data portal that allows researchers to capture and review search interests. This dissertation analyzes real-time behavioral shifts resulting from tourism policy changes in Venice, Italy using Google Trends data. This work contributes to the current literature in DiD modeling, by using information-seeking behavior that is ahead of observable, lagged, outcomes. Through the integration of recent DiD advancements, this work further extends DiD applications in tourism econometrics, and a case-example of real-world tourism policy assessment. This dissertation highlights changes in search behavior immediately following policy implementation. Additionally, this work highlights Google Trends as …

Essays On Robust Inference Under Multiway Clustering, Jiahao Lin

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

The first chapter studies wild bootstrap-based inference for regression models with multiway clustering. Our proposed methods are multiway counterparts to the (one-way) wild cluster bootstrap approach introduced by Cameron et al. (2008). We establish the validity of our methods for studentized statistics. Theoretical results are provided, accommodating arbitrary serial dependence in the common time effects – an aspect excluded by existing two-way bootstrap-based approaches. Simulation experiments document the potential for enhanced inference with our novel approaches. We illustrate the effectiveness of the methods by revisiting an empirical study involving multiway clustered and serially correlated data.

The second chapter studies jackknife …

Essays On Health Economics, Yiran Han

Electronic Theses & Dissertations (2024 - present)

The first chapter examines relationships between physicians exposed to new drugs’ clinical trials and prescribing. Clinical trials benefit patients directly by providing novel treatments, but little is known about the indirect effects of clinical trials on physician prescribing through localized knowledge spillover. This study examines whether exposure to a clinical trial of a new drug in a physician’s local geographic area affects the physician’s propensity to prescribe the drug, i.e. a localized knowledge spillover from clinical trial sites to physician. Utilizing the Medicare Part D prescribing patterns of more than 10,000 physicians across 29 new cancer drugs approved by the …

Redesigning Home Reversion Products To Empower Retirement For Singapore's Public Flat Owners, Koon Shing Kwong, Jing Rong Goh, Jordan Jie Xin Lee, Ting Lin Collin Chua

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper introduces an innovative sell-type home reversion product aimed at monetizing Singapore’s public flats, serving as a new alternative to the existing Singapore Lease Buyback Scheme (LBS). This new product not only retains the LBS’s guaranteed period of residence in the property along with life annuity incomes but also enhances the product features to meet specific homeowner needs, including the ability to age in place, flexibility in retaining part of the property, options for bequests, and guaranteed principal return. By incorporating these additional features, the new product seeks to stimulate greater demand for monetizing public flats among asset-rich but …

Gauging Growth Risk In An International Financial Centre: Some Evidence From Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper applies the growth-at-risk framework proposed by Adrian et al. (2019) to Singapore, an international financial centre whereby financial shocks are intermediated away quickly. We gauge near-term risks around growth projections taken from the survey of professional forecasters by accounting for financial stress in both local and global financial markets, as well as worldwide economic uncertainty. The conditioning variables are first linked to future growth through quantile regressions, and the estimated quantiles are fitted with skew t-distributions to produce full predictive distributions. Scenario analysis reveals that greater local financial strain tends to widen the uncertainty of growth outlook, higher …

Modeling Inflation Expectations In Forward-Looking Interest Rate And Money Growth Rules, Zhengyang Chen, Victor J. Valcarcel

Faculty Publications

We propose a novel approach that directly embeds rational expectations (RE) into a low-dimensional structural vector autoregression (SVAR) without the need for any mapping to a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Beginning from a fully specified “consensus” structural model, we establish an instrumental variable procedure internal to the SVAR to obtain RE-consistent structural responses to identified monetary policy shocks. Our RE-SVAR framework facilitates a comparison across two alternative monetary policy indicators that accommodate long horizons in the formation of inflation expectations in the policy rule. We construct clouds of responses of inflation and economic activity to monetary …