Econometrics Commons^™

Estimating The Impacts Of Utah's Down Payment Assistance Program (Sb240): A Framework For Analyzing State And Regional Dpa Policies, Dylan Fallentine

All Graduate Reports and Creative Projects, Fall 2023 to Present

I examine the impact of Utah's Senate Bill 240, a targeted down payment assistance program for new homes priced under $450,000, on housing affordability and developer behavior. Using Synthetic Difference-in-Differences, Bayesian Structural Time-Series, Fixed Effects Difference-in-Differences, and Event Study Analysis, I assess whether SB240 influenced the construction of more affordable homes and led to reduced lot sizes, thereby fueling affordability.

My empirical analysis reveals that SB240 significantly reduced the transaction price of entry-level new homes in Utah, with an estimated average reduction of approximately $23,000. This effect is robust across various econometric models and data pools, indicating that the policy …

Financial Risk In A Changing Climate, Mashuk S. Rahman

LSU New Orleans Theses and Dissertations

Essay 1:

Given the missing-not-at-random (MNAR) nature of carbon emissions figures under the voluntary disclosure regulator environment, this research imputes synthetic emissions figures for both disclosing and non-disclosing publicly traded US firms, using an IV approach adapted for sample bias correction. The forward-observing implied cost of equity capital measure is consistently higher for carbon-intensive firms regardless of disclosure decision. This higher cost found in the large swath of high-emitting firms reduces the net present value of green transition investments, thus fueling existing research on the counterproductive natures of capital allocation in efforts to reduce corporate pollution. Contrary to emerging research, …

How To Discipline Financial Markets: Reputation Is Not Enough, Maria Bigoni, Gabriele Camera, Marco Casari

ESI Working Papers

Historically, shocks originating in the financial sector often spilled over into the real sector with dramatic consequences. We study in the lab how interventions targeting disclosure and capital requirements of financial intermediaries can reduce insolvencies or prevent their negative effects from propagating to the broader economy. In our two-sector economy, consumers and producers can fund financial intermediaries, who, in turn, provide them with liquidity to settle trades. However, intermediaries may undertake risky investments and become insolvent, which depresses real economic activity. In the experiment, insolvencies were frequent. As a consequence, consumers and producers often refused to fund intermediaries, which lowered …

How Can Monetary Policy And Digitalization Enhance Economic Productivity Among Oic Members?, Basri Basri, Muhammad Akbar Ramadhani

Journal Of Middle East and Islamic Studies

Studi ini bertujuan untuk menentukan dampak suku bunga, jumlah uang beredar, dan pengembangan TIK terhadap PDB per kapita dengan menggunakan pendekatan panel heterogen dinamis (panel ARDL) pooled mean group (PMG). Temuan kami menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan moneter memainkan peran penting bagi pendapatan per kapita di seluruh negara OKI pada tingkat pendapatan yang berbeda. Bagi OKI secara keseluruhan, suku bunga memiliki dampak positif dalam jangka panjang tetapi tidak berpengaruh dalam jangka pendek. Bagi sebagian besar LMIC dan UMIC, kenaikan suku bunga cenderung meningkatkan pendapatan per kapita, sedangkan bagi sebagian besar negara LIC, hubungannya negatif. Jumlah uang beredar memiliki dampak negatif terhadap pendapatan …

Optimal Har Inference, Liyu Dou

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper addresses the problem of deriving heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation robust (HAR) inference for a scalar parameter of interest, under the assumption of a known upper bound on data persistence. Finite-sample optimal tests are derived within the Gaussian location model, revealing that robustness-efficiency tradeoffs are primarily determined by the maximal persistence. With a suitable adjustment to the critical value, the equal-weighted cosine (EWC) test emerges as nearly optimal, wherein the long-run variance is estimated through projections onto q type II cosines. This approach establishes a direct link between the choice of q and persistence assumptions, accompanied by adjustments to the …

Pengaruh Larangan Ekspor Karang Hias Terhadap Kondisi Terumbu Karang Di Indonesia, Fitrian Dwi Cahyo, Muhammad Halley Yudhistira

Jurnal Kebijakan Ekonomi

Indonesia has the largest coral population in the world, contributed as the world’s second largest ornamental corals exporter after Japan. Coral trade sparked the issues of habitat destruction, illegal trade, and coral health problems has prompted the government to banning of ornamental coral export. This study aims to find an empirical evidence does the policies mentioned above affect the condition of coral reefs in Indonesia. The author uses the Fixed-Effect Model on the Difference in Difference regression equation whose result show that export banning of ornamental corals does not significantly affect the condition of coral reefs in Indonesia.

Estimating Firm-Level Production Functions With Spatial Dependence, Pao-Li Chang, Ryo Makioka, Bo Lin Ng, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper proposes a three-stage efficient GMM estimation algorithm for estimating firm-level production functions given spatial dependence across firms due to supplier-customer relationships, sharing of input markets, or knowledge spillover. The procedure builds on Ackerberg, Caves and Frazer (2015) and Wooldridge (2009), but in addition, allows the productivity process to depend on the lagged output levels and lagged input usages of related firms, and spatially correlated productivity shocks across firms, where the set of related firms can differ across the three dimensions of spatial dependence. We establish the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimator, and conduct Monte Carlo simulations to …

Granulocyte Colony Stimulating Factor Promotes Scarless Tissue Regeneration, Jianhe Huang, Satish: Murphy Sati, Casey A. Spencer, Emmanuel Rapp, Stephen M. Prouty, Scott Korte, Olivia Ahart, Emily Sheng, Anna E. Kersh, Denis Leung, Thomas H. Leung, Leung, Denis H. Y.

Research Collection School Of Economics

Mammals typically heal with fibrotic scars, and treatments to regenerate human skin and hair without a scar remain elusive. We discovered that mice lacking C-X-C motif chemokine receptor 2 (CXCR2 knockout [KO]) displayed robust and complete tissue regeneration across three different injury models: skin, hair follicle, and cartilage. Remarkably, wild-type mice receiving plasma from CXCR2 KO mice through parabiosis or injections healed wounds scarlessly. A comparison of circulating proteins using multiplex ELISA revealed a 24-fold higher plasma level of granulocyte colony stimulating factor (G-CSF) in CXCR2 KO blood. Local injections of G-CSF into wild-type (WT) mouse wound beds reduced scar …

A Granular Investigation On The Stability Of Money Demand, Zhengyang Chen, Victor J. Valcarcel

Faculty Publications

A large literature has shown money demand functions constructed from simple-sum aggregates are unstable. We revisit the controversy surrounding the instability of money demand by examining cointegrating income-money relationships with the Divisia monetary aggregates for the U.S., and compare them with their simple-sum counterparts. We innovate by conducting a more granular analysis of various monetary assets and their associated user costs. We find characterizing money demand with simple-sum measures only works well in a period preceding 1980. Divisia aggregates, their components, and their user costs provide a more reliable interpretation of money demand. Subsample analysis across 1980 and 2008 suggests …

Assessing The Recreational Charter Fishing Market In Florida: A Hedonic Price Analysis, Mehrnoosh Asadi, Pallab Mozumder, Mahadev G. Bhat

Journal of Ocean and Coastal Economics

In this study we analyze the effect of a wide range of factors on the variation of recreational fishing trip prices in Florida. We collected extensive data from recreational fishing websites maintained by guides and outfitters and used different empirical methods for quantifying the relationship between trip price and various trip characteristics. The Hedonic Price model was used to estimate the implicit prices of freshwater and saltwater fishing trip characteristics. The results suggest that freshwater and saltwater anglers significantly value the lodging feature included in the fishing trip package. Moreover, saltwater anglers had a higher willingness to pay to catch …

Axiomatic Characterization Of Generalized Neo-Eu Preferences And The Falsifiability Of Ambiguity Theories, Manuel Nunez, Mark Schneider

ESI Working Papers

We introduce a new weakening of the independence axiom, co-extreme independence, which we show characterizes a class that encompasses popular ambiguity models including Hurwicz preferences, ϵ-contamination preferences, and NEOEU preferences. Importantly, our representation unifies these as forms of simple ambiguity models as we show that the Vapnik-Chervonenkis (VC) dimension of these models is either unity or increases linearly with the number of states. In contrast, standard ambiguity models characterized in the Anscombe-Aumann framework are complex ambiguity models that have a VC dimension that is either infinite or increases exponentially in the number of states. We show that simple ambiguity preferences …

A Critical Evaluation Of Loss Aversion As The Determinate Of Effort In Compensation Framing, Timothy W. Shields, James Wilhelm

ESI Working Papers

A robust finding in managerial accounting research is that participants prefer contracts framed as bonuses to economically equivalent contracts framed as penalties. Another finding is that participants put forth more effort when facing penalty contracts than equivalent bonus contracts. Both results are commonly described as due to loss aversion, an integral portion of prospect theory. We test whether loss aversion is correlated with higher effort in an experiment with two parts. In the first part, we elicit individual participants' loss aversion using two measures. In the second part of the experiment, participants choose costly effort to increase the likelihood of …

On Explaining Why The (Human) World Is Rich, Bart J. Wilson

ESI Working Papers

The wealth of the modern world is a natural historical marvel. Explaining it has traditionally been the purview of economic historians, as exemplified by the recent book How the World Became Rich by Mark Koyama and Jared Rubin. Economic historians, though, tend to only ask process-oriented “how” questions and “by what means” questions of the Great Enrichment. The eight co-authors of Explaining Technology, who are not economic historians, engage the debate asking a different question. Their goal is to explain the exponential shape of our enrichment with a model of the combinatorial evolution of technology. With an eye toward how …

Essays In Health Economics And Applied Econometrics: Assessing Recreational Marijuana Laws, Dragos Ailoae

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation explores the diffusion and impacts of state recreational marijuana laws (RML). Chapter 1 examines factors driving state adoption and spread of RML, finding that states with citizen ballot initiatives, expansive legislative capacities, and higher fiscal stress are more likely to enact RML. Ideological proximity, rather than geography, drives policy diffusion, with learning from early adopters likely serving as a key mechanism in the process. Chapter 2 assesses first-order effects of RML on marijuana consumption and drug policing using various econometric methods. Results suggest amplification bias in difference-in-differences point estimates due to an endogenous policy variable. This has economic …

Quantifying Delay Propagation In Airline Networks, Liyu Dou, Jakub Kastl, John Lazarev

Research Collection School Of Economics

We develop a framework for quantifying delay propagation in airline networks by integrating structural modeling and machine learning methods to estimate causal effects. Using a comprehensive dataset on actual delays and a model-selection algorithm (elastic net), we estimate a weighted directed graph of delay propagation for each major airline in the United States and establish conditions under which the propagation coefficients are causal. These estimates enable a decomposition of airline performance into "luck" and "ability." Our findings indicate that luck accounts for approximately 38% of the performance difference between Delta and American Airlines in our data. Additionally, we leverage these …

Recruitment Of Cxcr4+Type 1 Innate Lymphoid Cells Distinguishes Sarcoidosis From Other Skin Granulomatous Diseases, S. Sati, J. Huang, A.E. Kersh, P. Jones, O. Ahart, C. Murphy, S.M. Prouty, M.L. Hedberg, V. Jain, S.G. Gregory, Leung, Denis H. Y., J.T. Seykora, M. Rosenbach, T.H. Leung

Research Collection School Of Economics

Sarcoidosis is a multiorgan granulomatous disease that lacks diagnostic biomarkers and targeted treatments. Using blood and skin from patients with sarcoid and non-sarcoid skin granulomas, we discovered that skin granulomas from different diseases exhibit unique immune cell recruitment and molecular signatures. Sarcoid skin granulomas were specifically enriched for type 1 innate lymphoid cells (ILC1s) and B cells and exhibited molecular programs associated with formation of mature tertiary lymphoid structures (TLSs), including increased CXCL12/CXCR4 signaling. Lung sarcoidosis granulomas also displayed similar immune cell recruitment. Thus, granuloma formation was not a generic molecular response. In addition to tissue-specific effects, patients with sarcoidosis …

Recruitment Of Cxcr4+ Type 1 Innate Lymphoid Cells Distinguishes Sarcoidosis From Other Skin Granulomatous Diseases, Satish Sati, Jianhe Huang, Anna E. Kersh, Parker Jones, Olivia Ahart, Christina Murphy, Stephen M. Prouty, Matthew L. Hedberg, Vaibhav Jain, Simon G. Gregory, Leung, Denis H. Y., John T. Seykora, Misha Rosenbach, Thomas H. Leung

Research Collection School Of Economics

Sarcoidosis is a multiorgan granulomatous disease that lacks diagnostic biomarkers and targeted treatments. Using blood and skin from patients with sarcoid and non-sarcoid skin granulomas, we discovered that skin granulomas from different diseases exhibit unique immune cell recruitment and molecular signatures. Sarcoid skin granulomas were specifically enriched for type 1 innate lymphoid cells (ILC1s) and B cells and exhibited molecular programs associated with formation of mature tertiary lymphoid structures (TLSs), including increased CXCL12/CXCR4 signaling. Lung sarcoidosis granulomas also displayed similar immune cell recruitment. Thus, granuloma formation was not a generic molecular response. In addition to tissue-specific effects, patients with sarcoidosis …

Essays In Machine Learning, Econometrics, And Computational Economics, Lulu Wang

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Chapter 1 Data-Driven Graph Neural Networks And Realized Volatility Prediction through Graph Discovery: Financial markets’ interconnectedness plays a crucial role in financial predictions. However, existing network structures often fall short in aligning with specific prediction tasks. This paper presents a novel model that integrates graph discovery techniques with Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to address this challenge, focusing on short-term intraday realized volatility prediction. Our investigation from a graph theory perspective reveals that precision-based graph discovery methods substantially enhance GNNs accuracy by generating meaningful graphs and node embeddings. In contrast, conventional covariance-based approaches exhibit limited effectiveness due to their consideration of …

Utilizing Machine Learning To Forecast Sector-Level Equity Returns From Sector-Level Financial Ratios, Greg Kuppenheimer

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Academics and equity analysts often utilize fundamental financial ratios to evaluate an industry's financial and operational performance. However, sophisticated econometric methods could be improved for estimating these ratios' importance in predicting sector-level stock return performance. To address this gap, gradient-boosted decision tree methods were applied to the WRDS sector-level financial ratio database to identify if financial ratios effectively forecast sector-level stock returns in future periods. The findings show that these ratios are predictive and economically material, both stand alone and in combination with other macroeconomic factors. Using these predictions, long and long-short sector-level portfolios were created, and most of these …

Do Participation Rates Vary With Participation Payments In Laboratory Experiments?, Huizhen Zhong, Cary Deck, Daniel J. Henderson

ESI Working Papers

This paper reports a series of experiments designed to evaluate how the advertised participation payment impacts participation rates in laboratory experiments. Our initial goal was to generate variation in the participation rate as a means to control for selection bias when evaluating treatment effects in common laboratory experiments. Initially, we varied the advertised participation payment to 1734 people from $5 to $15 using standard email recruitment procedures, but found no statistical evidence this impacted the participation rate. A second study increased the advertised payment up to $100. Here, we find marginally significant statistical evidence that the advertised participation payment affects …