Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Nonparametric Methods For Bayesian Community Detection In Complex Networks, Kedran Young

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Network analysis is becoming an increasingly popular interdisciplinary area of study, with emerging interest in fields like sociology, biology, economics, and ecology. Within the niche of network analysis, capturing the community structure of a network is one important achievement that many statisticians have been working toward over recent decades. The most popular modeling technique for latent community detection is the Stochastic Block Model (SBM), which falls into the category of latent variable models and will serve as the baseline model throughout this thesis. SBM is widely regarded as the most effective community detection method as it detects latent community membership …

Analyzing Sleep Staging And Cognitive Transitions Using Fmrl Time Series Analysis, Qingwen Zeng

Arts & Sciences Graduate Student Theses and Dissertations

Understanding sleep stages and their underlying cognitive transitions is essential for advancing our knowledge of brain function. While sleep staging has traditionally relied on electroencephalogram (EEG), this study explores the feasibility of classifying sleep stages using only functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) data. We investigate the use of Hidden Markov Models (HMM) and Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Models (HDP-HMM) to capture temporal brain-state dynamics from task-free fMRI recordings. A series of pipelines—including sliding window, two-stage majority filtering, and prototype-based mapping via the Hungarian algorithm—were implemented to align model-inferred states with EEG-defined sleep stages. Among the twelve tested pipelines, the …

Decoding The Algorithm: The Mathematics Behind Tiktok’S Short-Form Content Success, Ashley N. Lynch

Honors Scholar Theses

Within the realm of social networks, TikTok has become the central hub for short-form video content. The network’s unique ability to capture individual preferences using predictive analytics has greatly contributed to its massive success, allowing the company to optimize its performance and content personalization. In an age where digital media have such a significant influence on society, it is essential that users develop an understanding of how social network algorithms function to make more informed online decisions. Although TikTok’s technological system is primarily undisclosed, the platform certifiably leverages several key mathematical principles within its algorithm to achieve its core goals …

Investigating Students’ Proficiency Across Statistical Software And Preferences Of Statistical Software Design, Sabrina White

Honors College Theses

This paper investigated students’ perceptions of their proficiency with statistical software applications and their preferences regarding software features. Results indicated that students’ statistical and coding experience, as well as the specific application used, did not significantly influence their self-perceived proficiency. This suggests that it may be more effective to focus on building student skills within a chosen application, rather than tailoring the application to match existing student capabilities. While students showed clear preferences for certain features, favoring clarity over depth, flexibility over safeguards, and built-in checks over unrestricted freedom, these preferences generally leaned toward balanced design rather than extremes. This …

Innovative Methods For The Design And Analysis Of Phase Ii Clinical Trials, Feng Tian

Dissertations and Theses (Open Access)

Drug development has become increasingly time-consuming, costly, and risky in recent years. There is significant potential for improving clinical trial designs, particularly for phase II trials, which play a critical role in the drug development process. Innovative methods are especially necessary for addressing key challenges in phase II trials in terms of dose-ranging study, patient population selection, and decentralized clinical trials (DCTs). This dissertation presents a comprehensive set of methodologies that address these critical issues with three projects. The first project introduces a Bayesian adaptive dose-ranging design that integrates both efficacy and toxicity data to evaluate each dose comprehensively. The …

Dual-Criterion Dose Finding Designs For Phase I Clinical Trials, Yunlong Yang

Dissertations and Theses (Open Access)

The primary objective of Phase I oncology trials is to assess the safety and tolerability of novel therapeutics. Conventional dose escalation methods identify the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) based on dose-limiting toxicity (DLT). However, as cancer therapies have evolved from chemotherapy to targeted therapies, these traditional methods have become problematic. Many targeted therapies rarely produce DLT and are administered over multiple cycles, potentially resulting in the accumulation of lower-grade toxicities, which can lead to intolerance, such as dose reduction or interruption. To address this issue, we proposed dual-criterion designs that find the MTD based on both DLT and non-DLT-caused intolerance. …

Novel Statistical Methods For Mediation Analysis With High-Dimensional Omics Mediators, Zhichao Xu

Dissertations and Theses (Open Access)

Mediation analysis is a widely used statistical method for examining how molecular traits, such as gene or protein expression, act as intermediaries linking an exposure to a health outcome. For example, it can help explain how smoking affects disease risk through molecular changes. The rapid progress in high-throughput omics profiling technologies and large-scale epidemiology consortia, such as the Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) program from the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (NHLBI) and UK Biobank, now has resulted in an extensive accumulation of genomic data for biomedical research and analysis. At the same time, it poses significant methodological challenges, …

Identifying And Characterizing Transition Cells In Developmental Processes From Scrna-Seq Data, Yuanxin Wang

Dissertations and Theses (Open Access)

During the development of multicellular organisms, individual cells make distinct decisions about their cell types and states. Understanding the molecular mechanisms underlying cellular state transitions at different developmental stages provides deep insights into physiology, morphology and the etiology of diseases. Single-cell RNA-sequencing (scRNA-seq), which is widely used to study complex cell states and dynamic gene expression patterns, enables us to investigate molecular mechanisms of cellular state transitions. Currently, however, computational tools available for identifying cellular states and state transitions remain limited.

Although trajectory-based methods such as Monocle and Slingshot assume that state transitions generate continuous expression profiles, they cannot distinguish …

Efficient Fully Bayesian Approach To Brain Activity Mapping With Complex-Valued Fmri Data, Zhengxin Wang, Daniel B. Rowe, Xinyi Li, D. Andrew Brown

Mathematical and Statistical Science Faculty Research and Publications

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) enables indirect detection of brain activity changes via the blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) signal. Conventional analysis methods mainly rely on the real-valued magnitude of these signals. In contrast, research suggests that analyzing both real and imaginary components of the complex-valued fMRI (cv-fMRI) signal provides a more holistic approach that can increase power to detect neuronal activation. We propose a fully Bayesian model for brain activity mapping with cv-fMRI data. Our model accommodates temporal and spatial dynamics. Additionally, we propose a computationally efficient sampling algorithm, which enhances processing speed through image partitioning. Our approach is shown to be …

Using Gaussian Process Regression To Learn Thermodynamic Equations Of State With Uncertainty Quantification, Austen T. Lee

Chemical Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

This study investigates the use of derivative-informed Gaussian Process (GP) models to estimate thermodynamic behavior across temperature and density by building a Helmholtz-based equation of state. Argon, a stable monatomic gas, was chosen as a case study within the vapor region. The GP model was trained using values of experimentally measurable properties found by taking first and second derivatives of the original potential function. Results show that while the GP model offered uncertainty quantification and informed thermodynamic behavior, it predicted values that deviated from the ground truth depending on the property. The model exhibited high confidence in regions with substantial …

Kernel Density Estimation And Convolution, Nicholas Tenkorang

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) is a widely used technique for estimating the probability density function of a random variable. In this study, we revisit KDE through the lens of convolution and extend this perspective to special cases such as positive, bounded and heavy tailed random variables. Building on this foundation, we propose a novel simulation-based density estimation method that generates new data by adding noise to observed values and then smoothing the resulting histogram using splines. A minor adjustment to natural cubic splines is required to ensure nonnegative estimates. The noise is drawn from a class of bounded polynomial kernel …

A Profile Wald Test In M-Estimation, Reagan Kesseku

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

Despite the growing popularity of machine learning-based inference, classical statistical inference remains highly relevant in modern data science due to its interpretability and theoretical rigor. Among its core tools, the likelihood ratio test, Wald test, and score test are foundational methods for hypothesis testing within the maximum likelihood framework. Although these tests are asymptotically equivalent under regularity conditions, each offers distinct advantages depending on the context, computational demands, and the availability of parameter estimates. In this dissertation, we introduce a fourth method, the Profile Wald Test (PWT), within the broader M-estimation framework. The PWT is based on profile estimators of …

Application Of Ordinal Regression Models To Acquired Stress Resistance In Wild Strains Of Saccharomyces Cerevisiae, Carson Stacy

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This thesis explores the application of ordinal regression to the analysis of semi-quantitative growth assays often used when comparing fitness for different strains of the model yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. For stress survival assays, yeast stress resistance is measured using an ordered survival score that ranges from 0 (no growth) to 4 (confluent growth). Traditional approaches to analyze this type of data either treats data as a nominal categorical variable or as a continuous numerical variable. These approaches risk loss of information or violation of testing assumptions. In contrast, cumulative logit ordinal regression uses the information contained in the order …

The Little Diagram That Could: Geometric Properties And Statistical Applications Of Persistence Diagrams In Topological Data Analysis, Eugene Kler

McKelvey School of Engineering Graduate Student Theses & Dissertations

Topological Data Analysis (TDA) is a collection of techniques for data analysis that leverages topological invariants of spaces formed from data points. These methods excel at extracting useful information from noisy or sparse data, making them attractive to many mathematicians, statisticians, and scientists. In this thesis, we explore TDA on three fronts: algebraic foundations, statistical applications, and metric properties. Throughout, the central object of study is the Persistence Diagram (PD), a summary of the changes in homology that occur as one builds simplicial complexes from the data by increasing a parameter.

Expressive And Interpretable User Engagement Prediction Using Multivariate Survival Processes, Akshay Aravamudan

Theses and Dissertations

The ability to characterize how information diffuses online is of paramount importance to stakeholders that are interested in tasks such as proposing solutions for mitigating and countering dis/misinformation, predicting user engagement of content in social media, planning marketing campaigns to roll-out products and planning dissemination of political campaign messaging among others. One such facet of learning the dynamics of information diffusion is the ability to predict user engagement or the popularity of a single piece of information as it spreads through an online medium. Existing works in this regard mainly either obfuscate user level information or utilize frameworks that are …

Nonlinear Power Function Model Changepoint Detection., Jacob Steven Townson

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Most work surrounding changepoint analysis focuses on linear models. This dissertation explores changepoint detection in nonlinear power function models, specifically focusing on models where the constant multiplier and power are the parameters to be estimated in addition to the changepoint parameter. The study assumes an asymptotic framework as the number of observations approaches infinity. The study explores various model fitting algorithms, and decides to employ the Newton-Raphson method for parameter estimation, with a custom implementation developed to optimize the process. The research first establishes the strong consistency of estimators for the model without a changepoint. Building on this result, consistency …

New Bayesian Methods For Longitudinal Data Analysis With Complex Dependence Structures., Anish Mukherjee

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Longitudinal data in real-world settings are frequently found to be heterogeneous and exhibit intricate spatio-temporal dependence structures. Analyzing such complex data to obtain reliable estimation while quantifying uncertainty necessitates using sophisticated Bayesian methodology. In this work, we present novel Bayesian methods developed to address these challenges. We often observe heterogeneity in longitudinal data, where the mean and variance for certain profiles meaningfully differs from the rest. Some profiles may also exhibit outliers at a limited number of measurements. Using a standard mixed effects model, which assumes homogeneity, can lead to overestimating the residual variance and inefficient estimation. In this work, …

Designing Accessible And Dependable Tools For Vocational Rehabilitation Data Analysis, Ruth E. Taylor

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Fall 2023 to Present

Since 1973, the U.S. Rehabilitation Services Administration (RSA) has partnered with state vocational rehabilitation (VR) agencies to help individuals with disabilities achieve meaningful employment and independence. RSA-911 datasets play a crucial role in this effort by capturing detailed participant data, but their complexity can hinder effective analysis.

To simplify this process, we present an R software package to streamline the cleaning and analysis of RSA-911 and Transition Readiness Toolkit (TRT) data, a new measure of program effectiveness. We also deliver a user-friendly dashboard, empowering both VR researchers and counselors with the opportunity to conduct analyses. Using our developed tools, we …

Development Of Saddlepoint Methodologies For Sparse Sample Multiple Parameter Generalized Linear Models And Correlated Data Scenarios, Christopher Johnson

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Fall 2023 to Present

Parameter estimation using maximum likelihood techniques may be biased when sample sizes are small, event rates are low, or otherwise sparse counts exist in a parametric model. This in turn may lead researchers to draw invalid statistical conclusions when conventional methods are utilized. The saddlepoint approximation has potential to lessen the degree of bias in sparse data conditions through its use of moments beyond the mean and variance, which allows for more accurate approximations using a smaller number of observations. We propose two novel saddlepoint methods for use in practical analysis scenarios, as an alternative to maximum likelihood estimation. First, …

Exploring Latent Mediation Through Bayesian Regularization Methods Of Lasso, Ridge, Horseshoe, Spike-And-Slab, Ethan Harris

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Regularization is a powerful tool to combat overfitting and drive sparsity in complex models. Regularization was initially applied in regression modeling but has been increasingly utilized in structural equation modeling where its utility in identifying the essential components has helped improve modeling. As structural equation models have increased in complexity both in the number of indicators but also the number of latent factors, researchers have begun to investigate how applying Bayesian regularization to these systems can further push the limits on modeling complex models with limited sample sizes. One area where research is limited is the application of Bayesian regularizations …