Statistics and Probability Commons^™

A Study Of End-Cut Preference In Tree-Based Modeling, Xiangya Wang

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

Decision trees, particularly those built using the Classification and Regression Trees (CART) algorithm, are widely used for their interpretability and flexibility. However, the greedy nature of the CART splitting procedure gives rise to the end-cut preference (ECP) phenomenon, wherein split points near the extremes of predictor ranges are favored. This study offers a comprehensive investigation of ECP, exploring its theoretical underpinnings, practical manifestations, and implications for both single decision trees and ensemble methods such as Random Forests. Through theoretical analysis and simulation studies, we examine how ECP affects tree structure, variable selection, and predictive accuracy across tree-structured, linear, and nonlinear …

Car Price Prediction Using Machine Learning: Analyzing The Dvm-Car Dataset, Yaman Abu Ghareebaih

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The objective of this study is to predict car prices using machine learning models and the DVM-CAR dataset, which includes over 1.4 million images and car specifi- cations from 899 car models. Key factors such as mileage, engine power, and year of registration were analyzed for their correlation with car prices. Extensive data cleaning was performed, including filling missing values, identifying outliers, and normalizing numerical variables. Discrete variables like car make and body type were encoded using one-hot encoding. Linear relationships were analyzed with Multiple Logistic Regression, and Random Forest models were used for nonlinear patterns. Model performance was evaluated …

Community Voices, Climate Action Choices: Working Towards A Resilient Monterey County, Lesley A. Solano Alonso

Capstone Projects and Master's Theses

Vulnerable communities in Monterey County face disproportionate environmental and health impacts due to climate change, yet many residents remain unaware of the tools and resources available to support local action. This capstone project was implemented in partnership with Ecology Action (EA) and the Resilient Central Coast (RCC) campaign to increase awareness and engagement with the RCC platform. Serving diverse communities across Monterey County, the project included bilingual outreach efforts, community tabling, educational presentations, and a climate action survey. Over 650 residents were engaged directly, resulting in 99 new household sign-ups on the RCC website, a major milestone for the agency. …

Application Of Deep Learning On Gage R&R For Anomaly Detection, Oluwatope Richard Ojo

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This thesis explores the application of deep learning techniques, specifically autoencoder based models, to enhance anomaly detection within Gage Repeatability and Reproducibility (Gage R&R) studies—an essential component of Measurement System Analysis (MSA) in quality engineering. Traditional Gage R&R methodologies, while effective for linear and low-dimensional data, exhibit limitations in detecting subtle, nonlinear variations in complex measurement systems. To address this challenge, an unsupervised autoencoder was developed and trained on a synthetically generated dataset comprising 2,500 voltage measurements (5V and 33V) derived using Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) based on real-world manufacturing data measurements.

The proposed autoencoder model achieved a 95th percentile-based …

Exploring Latent Mediation Through Bayesian Regularization Methods Of Lasso, Ridge, Horseshoe, Spike-And-Slab, Ethan Harris

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Regularization is a powerful tool to combat overfitting and drive sparsity in complex models. Regularization was initially applied in regression modeling but has been increasingly utilized in structural equation modeling where its utility in identifying the essential components has helped improve modeling. As structural equation models have increased in complexity both in the number of indicators but also the number of latent factors, researchers have begun to investigate how applying Bayesian regularization to these systems can further push the limits on modeling complex models with limited sample sizes. One area where research is limited is the application of Bayesian regularizations …

New Bayesian Methods For Longitudinal Data Analysis With Complex Dependence Structures., Anish Mukherjee

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Longitudinal data in real-world settings are frequently found to be heterogeneous and exhibit intricate spatio-temporal dependence structures. Analyzing such complex data to obtain reliable estimation while quantifying uncertainty necessitates using sophisticated Bayesian methodology. In this work, we present novel Bayesian methods developed to address these challenges. We often observe heterogeneity in longitudinal data, where the mean and variance for certain profiles meaningfully differs from the rest. Some profiles may also exhibit outliers at a limited number of measurements. Using a standard mixed effects model, which assumes homogeneity, can lead to overestimating the residual variance and inefficient estimation. In this work, …

Innovative Methods For The Design And Analysis Of Phase Ii Clinical Trials, Feng Tian

Dissertations and Theses (Open Access)

Drug development has become increasingly time-consuming, costly, and risky in recent years. There is significant potential for improving clinical trial designs, particularly for phase II trials, which play a critical role in the drug development process. Innovative methods are especially necessary for addressing key challenges in phase II trials in terms of dose-ranging study, patient population selection, and decentralized clinical trials (DCTs). This dissertation presents a comprehensive set of methodologies that address these critical issues with three projects. The first project introduces a Bayesian adaptive dose-ranging design that integrates both efficacy and toxicity data to evaluate each dose comprehensively. The …

Dual-Criterion Dose Finding Designs For Phase I Clinical Trials, Yunlong Yang

Dissertations and Theses (Open Access)

The primary objective of Phase I oncology trials is to assess the safety and tolerability of novel therapeutics. Conventional dose escalation methods identify the maximum tolerated dose (MTD) based on dose-limiting toxicity (DLT). However, as cancer therapies have evolved from chemotherapy to targeted therapies, these traditional methods have become problematic. Many targeted therapies rarely produce DLT and are administered over multiple cycles, potentially resulting in the accumulation of lower-grade toxicities, which can lead to intolerance, such as dose reduction or interruption. To address this issue, we proposed dual-criterion designs that find the MTD based on both DLT and non-DLT-caused intolerance. …

Novel Statistical Methods For Mediation Analysis With High-Dimensional Omics Mediators, Zhichao Xu

Dissertations and Theses (Open Access)

Mediation analysis is a widely used statistical method for examining how molecular traits, such as gene or protein expression, act as intermediaries linking an exposure to a health outcome. For example, it can help explain how smoking affects disease risk through molecular changes. The rapid progress in high-throughput omics profiling technologies and large-scale epidemiology consortia, such as the Trans-Omics for Precision Medicine (TOPMed) program from the National Heart, Lung and Blood Institute (NHLBI) and UK Biobank, now has resulted in an extensive accumulation of genomic data for biomedical research and analysis. At the same time, it poses significant methodological challenges, …

Identifying And Characterizing Transition Cells In Developmental Processes From Scrna-Seq Data, Yuanxin Wang

Dissertations and Theses (Open Access)

During the development of multicellular organisms, individual cells make distinct decisions about their cell types and states. Understanding the molecular mechanisms underlying cellular state transitions at different developmental stages provides deep insights into physiology, morphology and the etiology of diseases. Single-cell RNA-sequencing (scRNA-seq), which is widely used to study complex cell states and dynamic gene expression patterns, enables us to investigate molecular mechanisms of cellular state transitions. Currently, however, computational tools available for identifying cellular states and state transitions remain limited.

Although trajectory-based methods such as Monocle and Slingshot assume that state transitions generate continuous expression profiles, they cannot distinguish …

Application Of Ordinal Regression Models To Acquired Stress Resistance In Wild Strains Of Saccharomyces Cerevisiae, Carson Stacy

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This thesis explores the application of ordinal regression to the analysis of semi-quantitative growth assays often used when comparing fitness for different strains of the model yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae. For stress survival assays, yeast stress resistance is measured using an ordered survival score that ranges from 0 (no growth) to 4 (confluent growth). Traditional approaches to analyze this type of data either treats data as a nominal categorical variable or as a continuous numerical variable. These approaches risk loss of information or violation of testing assumptions. In contrast, cumulative logit ordinal regression uses the information contained in the order …

Toward The Application Of Natural Language Processing In Electronic Health Record Analysis For Taxonomy Development, Latoya Mcdonald

All Dissertations

Electronic health records (EHRs) are pivotal resources for nurse practice because they increase the timeliness and reliability of patient information at the point of care and support access by multiple healthcare providers and the individual patients themselves. However, it is widely recognized that data extraction from EHRs is challenging due to the variability in the language used in clinical care notes and the lack of standardized terminology across healthcare systems. The broad objective of this dissertation is to develop taxonomy-based classification models for nursing care by applying feature engineering approaches to EHRs that include nursing care of ostomy patients following …

A System And Method For Measuring Spatially Varying Surface Appearances With A Study Of Feathers, Jessica Baron-Lis

All Dissertations

Real-world materials, particularly biological structures such as feathers exhibit complex appearances that vary spatially across their surfaces. The field of computer graphics provides a means of understanding such surfaces through material modeling which uses both analytical models and data acquired from light-surface interactions. There are many efforts within the past decade in measuring materials for graphics, but common limitations in these works include not accounting for spatially varying properties and reliance on neural networks and synthetic datasets.

Feathers from modern birds present diverse appearances due to how light interacts with their unique hierarchical microstructures. Variations in those structures lead to …

Nonparametric Methods For Bayesian Community Detection In Complex Networks, Kedran Young

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Network analysis is becoming an increasingly popular interdisciplinary area of study, with emerging interest in fields like sociology, biology, economics, and ecology. Within the niche of network analysis, capturing the community structure of a network is one important achievement that many statisticians have been working toward over recent decades. The most popular modeling technique for latent community detection is the Stochastic Block Model (SBM), which falls into the category of latent variable models and will serve as the baseline model throughout this thesis. SBM is widely regarded as the most effective community detection method as it detects latent community membership …

Development Of Saddlepoint Methodologies For Sparse Sample Multiple Parameter Generalized Linear Models And Correlated Data Scenarios, Christopher Johnson

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Fall 2023 to Present

Parameter estimation using maximum likelihood techniques may be biased when sample sizes are small, event rates are low, or otherwise sparse counts exist in a parametric model. This in turn may lead researchers to draw invalid statistical conclusions when conventional methods are utilized. The saddlepoint approximation has potential to lessen the degree of bias in sparse data conditions through its use of moments beyond the mean and variance, which allows for more accurate approximations using a smaller number of observations. We propose two novel saddlepoint methods for use in practical analysis scenarios, as an alternative to maximum likelihood estimation. First, …

Designing Accessible And Dependable Tools For Vocational Rehabilitation Data Analysis, Ruth E. Taylor

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Fall 2023 to Present

Since 1973, the U.S. Rehabilitation Services Administration (RSA) has partnered with state vocational rehabilitation (VR) agencies to help individuals with disabilities achieve meaningful employment and independence. RSA-911 datasets play a crucial role in this effort by capturing detailed participant data, but their complexity can hinder effective analysis.

To simplify this process, we present an R software package to streamline the cleaning and analysis of RSA-911 and Transition Readiness Toolkit (TRT) data, a new measure of program effectiveness. We also deliver a user-friendly dashboard, empowering both VR researchers and counselors with the opportunity to conduct analyses. Using our developed tools, we …

Efficient Fully Bayesian Approach To Brain Activity Mapping With Complex-Valued Fmri Data, Zhengxin Wang, Daniel B. Rowe, Xinyi Li, D. Andrew Brown

Mathematical and Statistical Science Faculty Research and Publications

Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) enables indirect detection of brain activity changes via the blood-oxygen-level-dependent (BOLD) signal. Conventional analysis methods mainly rely on the real-valued magnitude of these signals. In contrast, research suggests that analyzing both real and imaginary components of the complex-valued fMRI (cv-fMRI) signal provides a more holistic approach that can increase power to detect neuronal activation. We propose a fully Bayesian model for brain activity mapping with cv-fMRI data. Our model accommodates temporal and spatial dynamics. Additionally, we propose a computationally efficient sampling algorithm, which enhances processing speed through image partitioning. Our approach is shown to be …

Latent Variable Dyadic Regression Models For Predicting Over/Under Bets In Sports Betting, Alexcia Trejo

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This thesis explores the use of latent factor models to uncover hidden structures in pair wise outcomes derived from Over/Under betting markets in sports betting. Specifically, we implement and evaluate the Eigen model, a latent space model that represents dyadic data using node-specific vectors whose inner product govern edge probabilities. By modeling relationships between teams as adjacency matrices of binary outcomes, we investigate the extent to which the Eigen model captures both homophily, the tendency of similar teams to yield consistent betting results, and stochastic equivalence, where different teams exhibit indistinguishable patterns of Over/Under outcomes. A Bayesian formulation of the …

Sabrina Vs Steph: The Battle Between The Wnba And Nba, Naysha Mcgriff

Symposium of Student Scholars

The average salary of a Women’s National Basketball Association (WNBA) player is 110 times less than a National Basketball Association (NBA) player’s. Despite growing WNBA viewership, gender inequality in sports remains high, with critics claiming female athletes are less skilled. Gender bias in sports is severely understudied, making direct comparisons to men’s leagues unfair due to long-term lack of investment in women’s sports. This study investigates whether the perceived disparity in skill levels between WNBA and NBA players' is genuine or influenced more by external factors by developing an unbiased measure of player efficiency to compare athletic performance. This dataset …

Opioid Epidemic In Maine: An Analysis Of Increasing Overdose-Related Deaths Following The Coronavirus, Aysel S. Hamlin

Thinking Matters Symposium

The rate of drug overdose resulting in death doubled in Maine following the COVID-19 pandemic from the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in late 2019 through 2022. The correlation between increased isolation during the pandemic and overdose death rates sheds a concerning light on the insufficient resources for people struggling with Opioid Use Disorder (OUD) throughout Maine. The increasing trade and access to fentanyl following the pandemic accounted for the majority of drug-related deaths in Maine in 2021 and 2022. This study examines the need for long-term access to drug treatment in rural and urban Maine, both environments with varying …