Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Statistical Learning With Artificial Neural Network Applied To Health And Environmental Data, Taysseer Sharaf

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The current study illustrates the utilization of artificial neural network in statistical methodology. More specifically in survival analysis and time series analysis, where both holds an important and wide use in many applications in our real life. We start our discussion by utilizing artificial neural network in survival analysis. In literature there exist two important methodology of utilizing artificial neural network in survival analysis based on discrete survival time method. We illustrate the idea of discrete survival time method and show how one can estimate the discrete model using artificial neural network. We present a comparison between the two methodology …

Taming The Hurricane Of Acquisition Cost Growth – Or At Least Predicting It, Allen J. Deneve, Erin T. Ryan, Jonathan D. Ritschel, Christine M. Schubert Kabban

Faculty Publications

Cost growth is a persistent adversary to efficient budgeting in the Department of Defense. Despite myriad studies to uncover causes of this cost growth, few of the proposed remedies have made a meaningful impact. A key reason may be that DoD cost estimates are formulated using the highly unrealistic assumption that a program’s current baseline characteristics will not change in the future. Using a weather forecasting analogy, the authors demonstrate how a statistical approach may be used to account for these inevitable baseline changes and identify related cost growth trends. These trends are then used to reduce the error in …

Comparing Group Means When Nonresponse Rates Differ, Gabriela M. Stegmann

UNF Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Missing data bias results if adjustments are not made accordingly. This thesis addresses this issue by exploring a scenario where data is missing at random depending on a covariate x. Four methods for comparing groups while adjusting for missingness are explored by conducting simulations: independent samples t-test with predicted mean stratification, independent samples t-test with response propensity stratification, independent samples t-test with response propensity weighting, and an analysis of covariance. Results show that independent samples t-test with response propensity weighting and analysis of covariance can appropriately adjust for bias. ANCOVA is the stronger method when …

The Simulation & Evaluation Of Surge Hazard Using A Response Surface Method In The New York Bight, Michael H. Bredesen

UNF Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Atmospheric features, such as tropical cyclones, act as a driving mechanism for many of the major hazards affecting coastal areas around the world. Accurate and efficient quantification of tropical cyclone surge hazard is essential to the development of resilient coastal communities, particularly given continued sea level trend concerns. Recent major tropical cyclones that have impacted the northeastern portion of the United States have resulted in devastating flooding in New York City, the most densely populated city in the US. As a part of national effort to re-evaluate coastal inundation hazards, the Federal Emergency Management Agency used the Joint Probability Method …

The Bootstrap Estimation In Time Series, Yun Liu

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

Time series, a special case in dependent data sequence, is widely used in many fields. In time series, linear process models are quite popularly used. General form of linear process indicates the time dependence property of time series, AR(p), MA(q) and ARMA(p;,q) models are all linear process models. In this report, simulations are based on the simplest models of these linear process models, such as AR(1), MA(1) and ARMA(1,1) models. AR(1)-SEASON, which is developed based on AR(1) model by changing the weight of residuals, is also considered in this report. To deal with dependent data sequence, common methods which aim …

Evaluating The Long-Term Effects Of Logging Residue Removals In Great Lakes Aspen Forests, Michael I. Premer

Dissertations, Master's Theses and Master's Reports

Commercial aspen (Populus spp.) forests of the Great Lakes region are primarily managed for timber products such as pulp fiber and panel board, but logging residues (topwood and non-merchantable bolewood) are potentially important for utilization in the bioenergy market. In some regions, pulp and paper mills already utilize residues as fuel in combustion for heat and electricity, and progressive energy policies will likely cause an increase in biomass feedstock demand. The effects of removing residues, which have a comparatively high concentration of macronutrients, is poorly understood when evaluating long-term site productivity, future timber yields, plant diversity, stand dynamics, and …

Robust Estimates For Hp-Adaptive Approximations Of Non-Self-Adjoint Eigenvalue Problems, Stefano Giani, Luka Grubišić, Agnieszka Międlar, Jeffrey S. Ovall

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Publications and Presentations

We present new residual estimates based on Kato’s square root theorem for spectral approximations of non-self-adjoint differential operators of convection–diffusion–reaction type. These estimates are incorporated as part of an hp-adaptive finite element algorithm for practical spectral computations, where it is shown that the resulting a posteriori error estimates are reliable. Provided experiments demonstrate the efficiency and reliability of our approach.

Using Time Series Models For Defect Prediction In Software Release Planning, James W. Tunnell

All Master's Theses

To produce a high-quality software release, sufficient time should be allowed for testing and fixing defects. Otherwise, there is a risk of slip in the development schedule and/or software quality. A time series model is used to predict the number of bugs created during development. The model depends on the previous numbers of bugs created. The model also depends, in an exogenous manner, on the previous numbers of new features resolved and improvements resolved. This model structure would allow hypothetical release plans to be compared by assessing their predicted impact on testing and defect- fixing time. The VARX time series …

The Sensitivity Of A Test Based On Spearman's Rho In Cross-Correlation Change Point Problems, Congjian Liu

College of Graduate Studies: Theses & Dissertations

In change point problems, there are three main questions that researchers are interested in. First of all, is there a change point or not? Second, when does the change point occur in a time series? Third, how quickly can we detect the change point? In this thesis, we first explain what a change point is, and what a cross-correlation is. We then discuss prior research in this area. Then we discuss and examine a test based on Spearman's rho, introduced by Wied and Dehling (2011), which tests the null hypothesis of no change point, and compare the change point we …

Realistic Spiking Neuron Statistics In A Population Are Described By A Single Parametric Distribution, Lauren Crow 9370373

UROP Posters

The spiking of activity of neurons throughout the cortex is random and complicated. This complicated activity requires theoretical formulations in order to understand the underlying principles of neural processing. A key aspect of theoretical investigations is characterizing the probability distribution of spiking activity. This study aims to better understand the statistics of the time between spikes, or interspike interval, in both real data and a spiking model with many time scales. Exploration of the interspike intervals of neural network activity can provide a better understanding of neural responses to different stimuli. We consider different parametric distribution fitting techniques to characterize …

Compositions, Logratios And Geostatistics: An Application To Iron Ore, Clint Ward

Theses: Doctorates and Masters

Common implementations of geostatistical methods, kriging and simulation, ignore the fact that geochemical data are usually reported in weight percent, sum to a constant, and are thus compositional in nature. The constant sum implies that rescaling has occurred and this can be shown to produce spurious correlations. Compositional geostatistics is an approach developed to ensure that the constant sum constraint is respected in estimation while removing dependencies on the spurious correlations. This study tests the applicability of this method against the commonly implemented ordinary cokriging method. The sample data are production blast cuttings analyses drawn from a producing iron ore …

Characteristics Associated With Willingness To Participate In A Randomized Controlled Behavioral Clinical Trial Using Home-Based Personal Computers And A Webcam, Hiroko H. Dodge, Yuriko Katsumata, Jian Zhu, Nora Mattek, Molly Bowman, Mattie Gregor, Katherine Wild, Jeffrey A Kaye

Biostatistics Faculty Publications

BACKGROUND: Trials aimed at preventing cognitive decline through cognitive stimulation among those with normal cognition or mild cognitive impairment are of significant importance in delaying the onset of dementia and reducing dementia prevalence. One challenge in these prevention trials is sample recruitment bias. Those willing to volunteer for these trials could be socially active, in relatively good health, and have high educational levels and cognitive function. These participants' characteristics could reduce the generalizability of study results and, more importantly, mask trial effects. We developed a randomized controlled trial to examine whether conversation-based cognitive stimulation delivered through personal computers, a webcam …

Statistical Inference For The Mean Outcome Under A Possibly Non-Unique Optimal Treatment Strategy, Alexander R. Luedtke, Mark J. Van Der Laan

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

We consider challenges that arise in the estimation of the value of an optimal individualized treatment strategy defined as the treatment rule that maximizes the population mean outcome, where the candidate treatment rules are restricted to depend on baseline covariates. We prove a necessary and sufficient condition for the pathwise differentiability of the optimal value, a key condition needed to develop a regular asymptotically linear (RAL) estimator of this parameter. The stated condition is slightly more general than the previous condition implied in the literature. We then describe an approach to obtain root-n rate confidence intervals for the optimal value …

Statistical Partition Problem For Exponential Populations And Statistical Surveillance Of Cancers In Louisiana, Jin Gu

LSU New Orleans Theses and Dissertations

In this dissertation, we consider the problem of partitioning a set of

k population with respect

to a control population. For this problem some multistage methodologies are proposed and their

properties are derived. Using the Monte Carlo simulation techniques, the small and moderate

sample size performance of the proposed procedure are studied.

We have also considered at statistical surveillance of various cancers in Louisiana.

Mediation Analysis Of Gestational Age, Congenital Heart Defects, And Infant Birth-Weight, Adane F. Wogu, Christopher A. Loffredo, Ionut Bebu, George Luta

GW Biostatistics Center

Background

In this study we assessed the mediation role of the gestational age on the effect of the infant’s congenital heart defects (CHD) on birth-weight.

Methods

We used secondary data from the Baltimore-Washington Infant Study (1981–1989). Mediation analysis was employed to investigate whether gestational age acted as a mediator of the association between CHD and reduced birth-weight. We estimated the mediated effect, the mediation proportion, and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) using several methods.

Results

There were 3362 CHD cases and 3564 controls in the dataset with mean birth-weight of 3071 (SD = 729) and 3353 (SD = 603) …

A More Efficient Nonparametric Test Of Symmetry Based On Overlapping Coefficient, Hani M. Samawi, Robert L. Vogel

Biostatistics: Faculty Publications

In this paper we provide a more efficient nonparametric test of symmetry based on the empirical overlap coefficient using kernel density estimation applied to an extreme order statistics, namely extreme ranked set sampling. Our simulation investigation reveals that our proposed test of symmetry is at least as powerful as currently available tests of symmetry. Intensive simulation is conducted to examine the power of the proposed test. An illustration is provided using cardiac output and body weight of neonates in a neonatal intensive care unit.

Methods For Identifying Regions Of Brain Activation Using Fmri Meta-Data, Meredith A. Ray

Theses and Dissertations

Functional neuroimaging is a relatively young discipline within the neurosciences that has led to significant advances in our understanding of the human brain and progress in neuroscientific research related to public health. Accurately identifying activated regions in the brain showing a strong association with an outcome of interest is crucial in terms of disease prediction and prevention. Functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) is the most widely used method for this type of study as it has the ability to measure and identify the location of changes in tissue perfusion, blood oxygenation, and blood volume. In practice, the three-dimensional brain locations …

Semiparametric Regression Analysis Of Bivariate Interval-Censored Data, Naichen Wang

Theses and Dissertations

Survival analysis is a long-lasting and popular research area and has numerous applications in all fields such as social science, engineering, economics, industry, and public health. Interval-censored data are a special type of survival data, in which the survival time of interest is never exactly observed but is known to fall within some observed interval. Interval-censored data arise commonly in real-life studies, in which subjects are examined at periodical or irregular follow-up visits. In this dissertation, we develop efficient statistical approaches for regression analysis of bivariate intervalcensored data, in which the two survival times of interest are correlated and both …

Simulation Based Evaluation Of Multiscale Small Area Health Models, Purbasha Dasgupta

Theses and Dissertations

The effects of scale on the analysis of spatial data, often referred to as the modifiable areal unit problem in spatial studies, is one of the issues often encountered in small area health models. These spatial effects of scale are also seen in the areas of disease mapping where data are usually available in counts. Often there is a need to consider the different scales of aggregation that exist within count data, since inferences based on analyses can vary if we change the definition of the unit of analysis. This thesis provides a framework that describes the distribution of relative …

Higher-Order Targeted Minimum Loss-Based Estimation, Marco Carone, Iván Díaz, Mark J. Van Der Laan

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Common approaches to parametric statistical inference often encounter difficulties in the context of infinite-dimensional models. The framework of targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE), introduced in van der Laan & Rubin (2006), is a principled approach for constructing asymptotically linear and efficient substitution estimators in rich infinite-dimensional models. The mechanics of TMLE hinge upon first-order approximations of the parameter of interest as a mapping on the space of probability distributions. For such approximations to hold, a second-order remainder term must tend to zero sufficiently fast. In practice, this means an initial estimator of the underlying data-generating distribution with a sufficiently large …