Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Online Social Capital: Social Networking Sites' Influence On Civic And Political Engagement, Charles L. Bush

Sociology & Criminal Justice Theses & Dissertations

This thesis examines how using social networking sites (SNS) is correlated with levels of civic and political engagement of college students at Old Dominion University. Past research has yielded mixed results on the link between online social capital and civic and political engagement. Major limitations of past research include grouping together social networking sites that are substantially different and not considering these sites’ impact on the different forms of social capital. This thesis first examines how social networking site preference, intensity of use, and motives for use factor into an individual’s online social capital. Secondly, this thesis looks at how …

Influences Of Tenure Among Church Of God Of Prophecy Pastors, Florida District, Romeika Ferguson-Adderley

Doctor of Education (Ed.D)

The factors that influence pastoral tenure are varied and complex, especially as men and women serve congregations with growing diversities and needs. However, in the past 30 years, the research on pastoral tenure typically examined congregations that were Protestant in organizational belief and structure. Little research on pastoral tenure among Pentecostal churches could be found in the current body of literature. The purpose of this quantitative, non-experimental study was to investigate the factors that influence pastoral tenure within three regional/subcultural areas of the state of Florida for the Pentecostal denomination of the Church of God of Prophecy (COGOP). All lead …

Fishery Interaction Modeling Of Cetacean Bycatch In The California Drift Gillnet Fishery To Inform A Dynamic Ocean Management Tool, Nicholas B. Sisson

Biological Sciences Theses & Dissertations

Understanding the drivers that lead to interaction between target species in a fishery and marine mammals is a critical aspect in efforts to reduce bycatch. In the California drift gillnet fishery static management approaches and gear changes have reduced bycatch but neither measure ascertains the underlying dynamics causing bycatch events. To avoid further potentially drastic measures such as hard caps, dynamic management approaches that consider the scales relevant to physical dynamics, animal movement and human use could be implemented. A key component to this approach is determining the factors that lead to fisheries interactions. Using 25 years (1990-2014) of National …

Self-Reported Risk And Delinquent Behavior And Problem Behavioral Intention In Hong Kong Adolescents: The Role Of Moral Competence And Spirituality, Daniel T. L. Shek, Xiaoqin Zhu

Pediatrics Faculty Publications

Based on the six-wave data collected from Grade 7 to Grade 12 students (N = 3,328 at Wave 1), this pioneer study examined the development of problem behaviors (risk and delinquent behavior and problem behavioral intention) and the predictors (moral competence and spirituality) among adolescents in Hong Kong. Individual growth curve models revealed that while risk and delinquent behavior accelerated and then slowed down in the high school years, adolescent problem behavioral intention slightly accelerated over time. After controlling the background socio-demographic factors, moral competence and spirituality were negatively associated with risk and delinquent behavior as well as problem …

Signal Detection Of Adverse Drug Reaction Using The Adverse Event Reporting System: Literature Review And Novel Methods, Minh H. Pham

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

One of the objectives of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration is to protect the public health through post-marketing drug safety surveillance, also known as Pharmacovigilance. An inexpensive and efficient method to inspect post-marketing drug safety is to use data mining algorithms on electronic health records to discover associations between drugs and adverse events.

The purpose of this study is two-fold. First, we review the methods and algorithms proposed in the literature for identifying association drug interactions to an adverse event and discuss their advantages and drawbacks. Second, we attempt to adapt some novel methods that have been used in …

Pricing Asian Options: Volatility Forecasting As A Source Of Downside Risk, Adam T. Diehl

Undergraduate Economic Review

Asian options are a class of derivative securities whose payoffs average movements in the underlying asset as a means of hedging exposure to unexpected market behavior. We find that despite their volatility smoothing properties, the price of an Asian option is sensitive to the choice of volatility model employed to price them from market data. We estimate the errors induced by two common schemes of forecasting volatility and their potential impact upon trading.

A Visual Tool For Interdisciplinary Investigations, James J. O'Keefe

Lesley University Community of Scholars Day

Interdisciplinary investigations using the Gapminder dynamic interactive software will be the focus of this seminar.

Robust Estimation Of The Average Treatment Effect In Alzheimer's Disease Clinical Trials, Michael Rosenblum, Aidan Mcdermont, Elizabeth Colantuoni

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

The primary analysis of Alzheimer's disease clinical trials often involves a mixed-model repeated measure (MMRM) approach. We consider another estimator of the average treatment effect, called targeted minimum loss based estimation (TMLE). This estimator is more robust to violations of assumptions about missing data than MMRM.

We compare TMLE versus MMRM by analyzing data from a completed Alzheimer's disease trial data set and by simulation studies. The simulations involved different missing data distributions, where loss to followup at a given visit could depend on baseline variables, treatment assignment, and the outcome measured at previous visits. The TMLE generally has improved …

Apolipoprotein-Defined Lipoprotein Subclasses, Serum Apolipoproteins, And Carotid Intima-Media Thickness In T1d, Arpita Basu, Alicia J. Jenkins, Julie A. Stoner, Ying Zhang, Richrd L. Klein

Kinesiology and Nutrition Sciences Faculty Research

Circulating apolipoprotein-defined lipoprotein subclasses (ADLS) and apolipoproteins predict vascular events in the general and type 2 diabetes populations, but data in T1D are limited. We examined associations of ADLS, serum apolipoproteins, and conventional lipids with carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) measured contemporaneously and 6 years later in 417 T1D participants [men: n = 269, age 42 +/- 6 y (mean +/- SD); women: n = 148, age 39 +/- 8 y] in the Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications study, the follow-up of the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial (DCCT). Date were analyzed by multiple linear regression stratified by sex, and …

General Stochastic Integral And Itô Formula With Application To Stochastic Differential Equations And Mathematical Finance, Jiayu Zhai

LSU Doctoral Dissertations

A general stochastic integration theory for adapted and instantly independent stochastic processes arises when we consider anticipative stochastic differential equations. In Part I of this thesis, we conduct a deeper research on the general stochastic integral introduced by W. Ayed and H.-H. Kuo in 2008. We provide a rigorous mathematical framework for the integral in Chapter 2, and prove that the integral is well-defined. Then a general Itô formula is given. In Chapter 3, we present an intrinsic property, near-martingale property, of the general stochastic integral, and Doob-Meyer's decomposition for near-submartigales. We apply the new stochastic integration theory to several …

The Impact Of Changing Requirements, James C. Ellis

Theses and Dissertations

The fundamental purpose of an Engineering Change Proposal (ECP) is to change the requirements of a contract. To build in flexibility, the acquisition practice is to estimate a dollar value to hold in reserve after the contract is awarded. There appears to be no empirical-based method for estimating this ECP withhold in the literature. Using the Cost Assessment Data Enterprise (CADE) database, 533 contracts were randomly selected to build two regression models: one to predict the likelihood of a contract experiencing an ECP, and the other to determine the expected median percent increase in baseline contract cost if an ECP …

Satellite Communications In The V And W Band: Tropospheric Effects, Bertus A. Shelters

Theses and Dissertations

An investigation into the use of Weather Cubes compiled by the atmospheric characterization package, Laser Environmental Effects Definition and Reference (LEEDR), to develop accurate, long-term attenuation statistics for link-budget analysis is presented. A Weather Cube is a three-dimensional mesh of numerical weather prediction (NWP) data plus LEEDR calculations that allows for the quantification of rain, cloud, aerosol, and molecular effects at any UV to RF wavelength on any path contained within the cube. The development of this methodology is motivated by the potential use of V (40-75 GHz) and W (75-110 GHz) band frequencies for the satellite communication application, as …

Analysis Of A Voting Method For Ranking Network Centrality Measures On A Node-Aligned Multiplex Network, Kyle S. Wilkinson

Theses and Dissertations

Identifying relevant actors using information gleaned from multiple networks is a key goal within the context of human aspects of military operations. The application of a voting theory methodology for determining nodes of critical importance—in ranked order of importance—for a node-aligned multiplex network is demonstrated. Both statistical and qualitative analyses on the differences of ranking outcomes under this methodology is provided. As a corollary, a multilayer network reduction algorithm is investigated within the context of the proposed ranking methodology. The application of the methodology detailed in this thesis will allow meaningful rankings of relevant actors to be produced on a …

Optimal Latin Hypercube Designs For Computer Experiments Based On Multiple Objectives, Ruizhe Hou

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Latin hypercube designs (LHDs) have broad applications in constructing computer experiments and sampling for Monte-Carlo integration due to its nice property of having projections evenly distributed on the univariate distribution of each input variable. The LHDs have been combined with some commonly used computer experimental design criteria to achieve enhanced design performance. For example, the Maximin-LHDs were developed to improve its space-filling property in the full dimension of all input variables. The MaxPro-LHDs were proposed in recent years to obtain nicer projections in any subspace of input variables. This thesis integrates both space-filling and projection characteristics for LHDs and develops …

Looking Past The Spark To Find The Fuel Of The Arab Spring Fire, Luke M. Brantley

Theses and Dissertations

The field of statistical conflict prediction addresses region-wide analysis in eras of stable conflict and peace. This study improves upon those prediction rates in times of volatile conflict and peace seen during the Arab Spring of 2011 to 2015. During this time, higher rates of conflict transition in certain Middle Eastern and North African countries occurred than normally observed in previous studies. Due to the fact that previous prediction models decrease in accuracy during times of volatile conflict transition and since the proper strategy for handling the Arab Spring has been highly debated, this study considers alterations to previous studies …

Characterization Of Ambient Noise, Rachel C. Ramirez

Theses and Dissertations

An Air Force sponsor is interested in improving an acoustic detection model by providing better estimates on how to characterize the background noise of various environments. This would inform decision makers on the probability of acoustic detection of different systems of interest given different levels of noise. Data mining and statistical learning techniques are applied to a National Park Service acoustic summary data set to find overall trends over varying environments. Linear regression, conditional inference trees, and random forest techniques are discussed. Findings indicate only sixteen geospatial variables at different resolutions are necessary to characterize the first ten ⅓ octave …

Modeling Multimodal Failure Effects Of Complex Systems Using Polyweibull Distribution, Daniel A. Timme

Theses and Dissertations

The Department of Defense (DoD) enlists multiple complex systems across each of their departments. Between the aging systems going through an overhaul and emerging new systems, quality assurance to complete the mission and secure the nation‘s objectives is an absolute necessity. The U.S. Air Force‘s increased interest in Remotely Piloted Aircraft (RPA) and the Space Warfighting domain are current examples of complex systems that must maintain high reliability and sustainability in order to complete missions moving forward. DoD systems continue to grow in complexity with an increasing number of components and parts in more complex arrangements. Bathtub-shaped hazard functions arise …

Dietary Inflammatory Index And Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus In Adults: The Diabetes Mellitus Survey Of Mexico City, Edgar Denova-Gutiérrez, Paloma Muñoz-Aguirre, Nitin Shivappa, James R. Hébert, Lizbeth Tolentino-Mayo, Carolina Batis, Simón Barquera

Faculty Publications

Diet and inflammation are both associated with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). In the present study, we aimed to assess the relation between the dietary inflammatory index (DII) and the presence of T2DM in Mexican adults participating in the Diabetes Mellitus Survey administered in Mexico City (DMS-MC). The study involved 1174 subjects (48.5% men) between 20–69 years of age. A validated semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire was employed to evaluate dietary intake and to compute DII. The DII is based on scientific evidence about the association between dietary compounds and six established inflammatory biomarkers. Multivariate logistic regression models were used to …

Default Priors For The Intercept Parameter In Logistic Regressions, Philip S. Boonstra, Ryan P. Barbaro, Ananda Sen

The University of Michigan Department of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

In logistic regression, separation refers to the situation in which a linear combination of predictors perfectly discriminates the binary outcome. Because finite-valued maximum likelihood parameter estimates do not exist under separation, Bayesian regressions with informative shrinkage of the regression coefficients offer a suitable alternative. Little focus has been given on whether and how to shrink the intercept parameter. Based upon classical studies of separation, we argue that efficiency in estimating regression coefficients may vary with the intercept prior. We adapt alternative prior distributions for the intercept that downweight implausibly extreme regions of the parameter space rendering less sensitivity to separation. …

Perceived Access And Barriers To Care Among Illicit Drug Users And Hazardous Drinkers: Findings From The Seek, Test, Treat, And Retain Data Harmonization Initiative (Sttr)., Mika Matsuzaki, Quan M Vu, Marya Gwadz, Joseph A C Delaney, Irene Kuo, Maria Esther Perez Trejo, William E Cunningham, Chinazo O Cunningham, Katerina Christopoulos

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

BACKGROUND: Illicit drug use (DU) and hazardous drinking (HD) among marginalized populations may be associated with greater barriers to care.

METHODS: We used baseline data on the participants of the Seek, Test, Treat, and Retain data harmonization initiative. DU includes use of any illicit drugs within the past 6 months. HD was defined as scores ≥8 for men and ≥ 7 for women on Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test within the past 12 months. Social support scores were assigned by summing scores from individual questions related to social support. Two outcomes for multivariable regression models and mediation analysis were perceived …