Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Monte Carlo Simulations Of Three-Dimensional Electromagnetic Gaussian Schell-Model Sources, Milo W. Hyde Iv, Santasri Bose-Pillai, Olga Korotkova

Faculty Publications

This article presents a method to simulate a three-dimensional (3D) electromagnetic Gaussian-Schell model (EGSM) source with desired characteristics. Using the complex screen method, originally developed for the synthesis of two-dimensional stochastic electromagnetic fields, a set of equations is derived which relate the desired 3D source characteristics to those of the statistics of the random complex screen. From these equations and the 3D EGSM source realizability conditions, a single criterion is derived, which when satisfied guarantees both the realizability and simulatability of the desired 3D EGSM source. Lastly, a 3D EGSM source, with specified properties, is simulated; the Monte Carlo simulation …

Supporting Accurate Interpretation Of Self-Administered Medical Test Results For Mobile Health: Assessment Of Design, Demographics, And Health Condition, Jess C. Hohenstein, Eric P.S. Baumer, Lindsay Reynolds, Elizabeth L. Murnane, Dakota O'Dell, Seoho Lee, Shion Guha, Yu Qi, Erin Rieger, Geri K. Gay

Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science Faculty Research and Publications

Background: Technological advances in personal informatics allow people to track their own health in a variety of ways, representing a dramatic change in individuals’ control of their own wellness. However, research regarding patient interpretation of traditional medical tests highlights the risks in making complex medical data available to a general audience.

Objective: This study aimed to explore how people interpret medical test results, examined in the context of a mobile blood testing system developed to enable self-care and health management.

Methods: In a preliminary investigation and main study, we presented 27 and 303 adults, respectively, with hypothetical results from several …

Motivators For Alzheimer's Disease Clinical Trial Participation, Shoshana H. Bardach, Sarah D. Holmes, Gregory A. Jicha

Graduate Center for Gerontology Faculty Publications

Background

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) research progress is impeded due to participant recruitment challenges. This study seeks to better understand, from the perspective of individuals engaged in clinical trials (CTs), research motivations.

Methods

Participants, or their caregivers, from AD treatment and prevention CTs were surveyed about research motivators.

Results

The 87 respondents had a mean age of 72.2, were predominantly Caucasian, 55.2% were male, and 56.3% had cognitive impairment. An overwhelming majority rated the potential to help themselves or a loved one and the potential to help others in the future as important motivators. Relatively few respondents were motivated by free …

Approximation Degree Of Durrmeyer-Bézier Type Operators, Purshottam N. Agrawal, Serkan Araci, Martin Bohner, Kumari Lipi

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Research & Creative Works

Recently, a mixed hybrid operator, generalizing the well-known Phillips operators and Baskakov-Szász type operators, was introduced. In this paper, we study Bézier variant of these new operators. We investigate the degree of approximation of these operators by means of the Lipschitz class function, the modulus of continuity, and a weighted space. We study a direct approximation theorem by means of the unified Ditzian-Totik modulus of smoothness. Furthermore, the rate of convergence for functions having derivatives of bounded variation is discussed.

New Approaches To Model Simulated Spatio-Temporal Moran's Index, Nhan Bu, Jennifer Lorio, Norou Diawara, Kumar Das, Lance Waller

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

The Moran's index is a statistic that measures spatial autocorrelation; it quantifies the degree of dispersion (or clustering) of objects in space. However, when investigating data over a general area, a single global Moran statistic may not give a sufficient summary of the spread, behavior, features or latent surfaces shared by neighboring areas; rather, by partitioning the area and taking the Moran statistic of each divided subareas, we can discover patterns of the local neighbors not otherwise apparent. In this paper, we present a simulation experiment where the local Moran values are computed and a time variable is added to …

Phytoforensics: Trees As Bioindicators Of Potential Indoor Exposure Via Vapor Intrusion, Jordan L. Wilson, V. A. Samaranayake, Matt A. Limmer, Joel Gerard Burken

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Research & Creative Works

Human exposure to volatile organic compounds (VOCs) via vapor intrusion (VI) is an emerging public health concern with notable detrimental impacts on public health. Phytoforensics, plant sampling to semi-quantitatively delineate subsurface contamination, provides a potential non-invasive screening approach to detect VI potential, and plant sampling is effective and also time- and cost-efficient. Existing VI assessment methods are time- and resource-intensive, invasive, and require access into residential and commercial buildings to drill holes through basement slabs to install sampling ports or require substantial equipment to install groundwater or soil vapor sampling outside the home. Tree-core samples collected in 2 days at …

Neurotensin Receptor 3/Sortilin Contributes To Tumorigenesis Of Neuroendocrine Tumors Through Augmentation Of Cell Adhesion And Migration, Ji Tae Kim, Dana L. Napier, Heidi L. Weiss, Eun Y. Lee, Courtney M. Townsend, B. Mark Evers

Markey Cancer Center Faculty Publications

Neurotensin (NTS), a 13–amino acid peptide which is distributed predominantly along gastrointestinal tract, has multiple physiologic and pathologic functions, and its effects are mediated by three distinct NTS receptors (NTSRs). Overexpression and activation of NTS signaling components, especially NTS and/or NTSR1, are closely linked with cancer progression and metastasis in various types of cancers including neuroendocrine tumors (NETs). Although deregulation of NTSR3/sortilin has been implicated in a variety of human diseases, the expression and role of NTSR3/sortilin in NETs have not been elucidated. In this study, we investigated the expression and oncogenic effect of NTSR3/sortilin in NETs. Increased protein levels …

Predicting The Next Us President By Simulating The Electoral College, Boyan Kostadinov

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

We develop a simulation model for predicting the outcome of the US Presidential election based on simulating the distribution of the Electoral College. The simulation model has two parts: (a) estimating the probabilities for a given candidate to win each state and DC, based on state polls, and (b) estimating the probability that a given candidate will win at least 270 electoral votes, and thus win the White House. All simulations are coded using the high-level, open-source programming language R. One of the goals of this paper is to promote computational thinking in any STEM field by illustrating how probabilistic …

Predicting The Next Us President By Simulating The Electoral College, Boyan Kostadinov

Publications and Research

We develop a simulation model for predicting the outcome of the US Presidential election based on simulating the distribution of the Electoral College. The simulation model has two parts: (a) estimating the probabilities for a given candidate to win each state and DC, based on state polls, and (b) estimating the probability that a given candidate will win at least 270 electoral votes, and thus win the White House. All simulations are coded using the high-level, open-source programming language R. One of the goals of this paper is to promote computational thinking in any STEM field by illustrating how probabilistic …

Optimized Adaptive Enrichment Designs For Multi-Arm Trials: Learning Which Subpopulations Benefit From Different Treatments, Jon Arni Steingrimsson, Joshua Betz, Tiachen Qian, Michael Rosenblum

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

We consider the problem of designing a randomized trial for comparing two treatments versus a common control in two disjoint subpopulations. The subpopulations could be defined in terms of a biomarker or disease severity measured at baseline. The goal is to determine which treatments benefit which subpopulations. We develop a new class of adaptive enrichment designs tailored to solving this problem. Adaptive enrichment designs involve a preplanned rule for modifying enrollment based on accruing data in an ongoing trial. The proposed designs have preplanned rules for stopping accrual of treatment by subpopulation combinations, either for efficacy or futility. The motivation …

Phase Ii Adaptive Enrichment Design To Determine The Population To Enroll In Phase Iii Trials, By Selecting Thresholds For Baseline Disease Severity, Yu Du, Gary L. Rosner, Michael Rosenblum

Johns Hopkins University, Dept. of Biostatistics Working Papers

We propose and evaluate a two-stage, phase 2, adaptive clinical trial design. Its goal is to determine whether future phase 3 (confirmatory) trials should be conducted, and if so, which population should be enrolled. The population selected for phase 3 enrollment is defined in terms of a disease severity score measured at baseline. We optimize the phase 2 trial design and analysis in a decision theory framework. Our utility function represents a combination of the cost of conducting phase 3 trials and, if the phase 3 trials are successful, the improved health of the future population minus the cost of …

Application Of Transformations In Parametric Inference, Naomi Brownstein

The Pegasus Review: UCF Undergraduate Research Journal

One can apply transformations of random variables to conduct inference for multiple distributions in a few simple steps. These methods are used routinely in maximum likelihood estimation but are rarely applied in other statistical procedures. In this project, transformations of variables were explored and applied to derivations of the best unbiased estimators, Bayesian estimators, construction of various kinds of priors, estimation and inference in the stress-strength problem. First, general results were obtained on the application of transformations of random variables to the derivation of numerous statistical procedures. Second, common distributions and the relationships between them were listed in a table. …

Treatment And Outcomes Of Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Patients With High Comorbidity, Jorge Rios, Rahul Gosain, Bernardo H. L. Goulart, Bin Huang, Margaret N. Oechsli, Jaclyn K. Mcdowell, Quan Chen, Thomas Tucker, Goetz H. Kloecker

Biostatistics Faculty Publications

Background: The life expectancy of untreated non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is dismal, while treatment for NSCLC improves survival. The presence of comorbidities is thought to play a significant role in the decision to treat or not treat a given patient. We aim to evaluate the association of comorbidities with the survival of patients treated for NSCLC.

Methods: We performed a retrospective study of patients aged ≥66 years with invasive NSCLC between the years 2007 and 2011 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Kentucky Cancer Registry. Comorbidity was measured using the Klabunde Comorbidity Index (KCI), and univariate and multivariate logistic …

Burden Of Rheumatoid Arthritis Among Us Medicare Population: Co-Morbidities, Health-Care Resource Utilization And Costs, Chieh-I Chen, Li Wang, Wenhui Wei, Huseyin Yuce, Kristine Phillips

Publications and Research

Objectives. The study aimed to assess the burden of RA among the US Medicare population (aged 65 years) by comparing co-morbidities, health-care resource utilization (HCRU) and costs against matched non-RA Medicare patients.

Methods. Data were obtained from the Medicare fee-for-service claims database from 2010 to 2013. RA Medicare patients were identically matched with Medicare patients without RA (controls) based on demographics. Bivariate analyses were conducted to examine differences between cohorts for comorbidities, HCRU and costs. A generalized linear model was used to test relationships between patient-level characteristics, HCRU and costs.

Results. The study population included 115 867 RA patients and …

The Accuracy, Fairness, And Limits Of Predicting Recidivism, Julie Dressel, Hany Farid

Dartmouth Scholarship

Algorithms for predicting recidivism are commonly used to assess a criminal defendant’s likelihood of committing a crime. These predictions are used in pretrial, parole, and sentencing decisions. Proponents of these systems argue that big data and advanced machine learning make these analyses more accurate and less biased than humans. We show, however, that the widely used commercial risk assessment software COMPAS is no more accurate or fair than predictions made by people with little or no criminal justice expertise. We further show that a simple linear predictor provided with only two features is nearly equivalent to COMPAS with its 137 …

Modeling Mayfly Nymph Length Distribution And Population Dynamics Across A Gradient Of Stream Temperatures And Stream Types, Jeremy Anthony, Jennifer Baccam, Imanuel Bier, Emily Gregg, Leif Halverson, Ryan Mulcahy, Emmanuel Okanla, Samira A. Osman, Adam R. Pancoast, Kevin C. Schultz, Alex Sushko, Jennifer Vorarath, Yia Vue, Austin Wagner, Emily Gaenzle Schilling, John M. Zobitz

Spora: A Journal of Biomathematics

We analyze a process-based temperature model for the length distribution and population over time of mayfly nymphs. Model parameters are estimated using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo parameter estimation method utilizing length distribution data at five different stream sites. Two different models (a standard exponential model and a modified Weibull model) of mayfly mortality are evaluated, where in both cases mayfly length growth is a function of stream temperature. Based on model-data comparisons to the modeled length distribution and the Bayesian Information Criterion, we found that approaches that length distribution data can reliably estimate 2–3 model parameters. Future model development …

A Patient-Specific Treatment Model For Graves’ Hyperthyroidism, Balamurugan Pandiyan, Stephen J. Merrill, Flavia Di Bari, Alessandro Antonelli, Salvatore Benvenga

Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science Faculty Research and Publications

Background: Graves’ is disease an autoimmune disorder of the thyroid gland caused by circulating anti-thyroid receptor antibodies (TRAb) in the serum. TRAb mimics the action of thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) and stimulates the thyroid hormone receptor (TSHR), which results in hyperthyroidism (overactive thyroid gland) and goiter. Methimazole (MMI) is used for hyperthyroidism treatment for patients with Graves’ disease.

Methods: We have developed a model using a system of ordinary differential equations for hyperthyroidism treatment with MMI. The model has four state variables, namely concentration of MMI (in mg/L), concentration of free thyroxine - FT4 (in pg/mL), and concentration of TRAb …

Regrets, I'Ve Had A Few: When Regretful Experiences Do (And Don't) Compel Users To Leave Facebook, Shion Guha, Eric P.S. Baumer, Geri K. Gay

Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science Faculty Research and Publications

Previous work has explored regretful experiences on social media. In parallel, scholars have examined how people do not use social media. This paper aims to synthesize these two research areas and asks: Do regretful experiences on social media influence people to (consider) not using social media? How might this influence differ for different sorts of regretful experiences? We adopted a mixed methods approach, combining topic modeling, logistic regressions, and contingency analysis to analyze data from a web survey with a demographically representative sample of US internet users (n=515) focusing on their Facebook use. We found that experiences that arise because …

Models As Weapons: Review Of Weapons Of Math Destruction: How Big Data Increases Inequality And Threatens Democracy By Cathy O’Neil (2016), Samuel L. Tunstall

Numeracy

Cathy O’Neil. 2016. Weapons of Math Destruction: How Big Data Increases Inequality and Threatens Democracy (New York, NY: Crown) 272 pp. ISBN 978-0553418811.

Accessible to a wide readership, Cathy O’Neil’s Weapons of Math Destruction: How Big Data Increases Inequality and Threatens Democracy provides a lucid yet alarming account of the extensive reach of mathematical models in influencing all of our lives. With a particular eye towards social justice, O’Neil not only warns modelers to be cognizant of the effects of their work on real people—especially vulnerable groups who have less power to fight back—but also encourages laypersons to take initiative …

Modeling Mayfly Nymph Length Distribution And Population Dynamics Across A Gradient Of Stream Temperatures And Stream Types, Jeremy Anthony, Jennifer Baccam, Imanuel Bier, Emily Gregg, Leif Halverson, Ryan Mulcahy, Emmanuel Okanla, Samira A. Osman, Adam R. Pancoast, Kevin C. Schultz, Alex Sushko, Jennifer Vorarath, Yia Vue, Austin Wagner, Emily Gaenzle Schilling, John Zobitz

Faculty Authored Articles

We analyze a process-based temperature model for the length distribution and population over time of mayfly nymphs. Model parameters are estimated using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo parameter estimation method utilizing length distribution data at five different stream sites. Two different models (a standard exponential model and a modified Weibull model) of mayfly mortality are evaluated, where in both cases mayfly length growth is a function of stream temperature. Based on model-data comparisons to the modeled length distribution and the Bayesian Information Criterion, we found that approaches that length distribution data can reliably estimate 2–3 model parameters. Future model development …