Statistics and Probability Commons^™

A Leslie System For A Demographic Simulation: From An Actuarial Point Of View, David Kings

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This thesis develops a discrete stochastic linear systems interpretation of age–stage demographic evolution grounded in Leslie operators and realized in a discrete-event simulation implemented with salabim. The central claim is that one annual cycle of the simulation constitutes a cone-preserving, stochastic affine transformation on a high- dimensional population state vector indexed by age, sex, marital status, household type, employment, and education, and that the composition of yearly operators yields a random matrix product whose top Lyapunov exponent is the stochastic counterpart of the Perron–Frobenius growth rate (Caswell, 2001; Tuljapurkar, 1997)[1, 2]. The actuarial bridge is constructed by mapping simulated survival …

A Persistent Homology Framework For Scrna-Seq: Assessing Clustering Robustness And Quantifying Preprocessing And Integration Effects On Topological Features., Jonah Daneshmand

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

As single-cell RNA sequencing (scRNA-seq) data expands, robust methods for integrating diverse datasets are critical. This dissertation applies Persistent Homology (PH), a technique from Topological Data Analysis (TDA), to a collection of scRNA-seq datasets spanning eight tissue types to quantify how data integration affects topological features and biological interpretability. We assessed global topological structure using Betti curves, Euler characteristics, and persistence landscapes across raw, normalized, and integrated data representations. Our analysis revealed a performance inversion: while conventional methods excelled on unintegrated data, high-granularity topological methods, particularly those sensitive to global data structure, became superior after integration. This suggests a synergy …

Contributions To Statistical Modeling And Estimation Of Rainfall Intensity–Duration–Frequency Curves, Jiyun Huang

All Dissertations

Extreme rainfall can cause flooding, damage infrastructure, and create serious risks for communities. Engineers use Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves to estimate precipitation extremes over different lengths of time, such as one hour or one day, and the average time one would expect wait for one of these events to occur. Several approaches exist for estimating IDF curves, but no single approach is known to be best in all cases. In this dissertation, I study statistical methods that aim to improve IDF curve estimation. I use the Canadian Regional Climate Model (CanRCM4) Large Ensemble, which contains 35 independent climate simulations. These simulations …

Error Reduction Methodology And Data Simulation For Interval Data, Ranik Christopher Jelinek

Undergraduate Honors Capstone Projects

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a progressive condition affecting hundreds of millions of individuals worldwide. However, clinical datasets often record continuous laboratory measurements as categorical intervals rather than precise numerical values. This interval-censored structure presents methodological challenges for standard regression-based classifiers. This study compares three strategies for handling interval-valued predictors prior to fitting a logistic LASSO model: (1) midpoint imputation, which replaces each interval with its arithmetic center; (2) ordinal encoding, which maps intervals to integer ranks; and (3) a Monte Carlo simulation approach, which repeatedly samples uniformly from each observed interval and averages predictions across replications. Using a 10-fold …

Taxonomy Of Endophytic Fungi Associated With Vallisneria Neotropicalis, Md. Arafat Rashid

Graduate Theses and Dissertations (2019 - present)

This study presents the first comprehensive taxonomic and ecological investigation of endophytic fungi (EF) associated with the submerged aquatic macrophyte Vallisneria neotropicalis in the southern United States. Over a 12 month period, from April 2023 to March 2024, leaf samples were collected from two distinct sites in Mobile Bay, Alabama a disturbed, brackish Causeway location and a cleaner, less impacted site at Meaher State Park. Using culture dependent methods, a total of 257 fungal endophytes were isolated from 1,200 leaf segments. All isolates belonged to the phylum Ascomycota, distributed across 3 classes, 6 orders, 10 families, and 19 taxa. The …

Human Capital, Immigration, And Growth: A State-Level Dynamic Panel Study, William R. Cooper

Graduate Theses and Dissertations (2019 - present)

This study examines whether who immigrates, rather than how many, matters for state economic growth in the United States. It integrates a policy-relevant proxy for skill (H-1B approvals) into an augmented Solow framework that separates immigration's quantity channel from its human capital channel and estimates dynamic effects in a balanced quarterly panel of 50 states (2010 to 2023 ). The empirical strategy estimates a two-step difference GMM Arellano-Bond model that reinforces identification using a double/debiased machine learning (DML) variant that orthogonalizes high-dimensional nuisance components via cross-fitting. This design targets the distinct roles of immigrant headcount versus skill in per capita …

Short-Term Preeclampsia Prediction: Cutoff Variations For Sflt-1/Plgf In U.S. Patients With Or Without Hypertensive Disorders, Yaxin Li, Kristen Cagino, Jim Yee, Caroline Andy, Dajana Borova, Ayush Shah, Isla Racine, Tracy Grossman, Zhen Zhao

Student Papers, Posters & Projects

BACKGROUND: Preeclampsia (PE) is a complex disorder with significant maternal and fetal risks. The soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase-1 (sFlt-1) and placental growth factor (PlGF) ratio shows promise as a diagnostic tool, but its adoption in the U.S. remains limited due to the lack of accessible testing platforms, U.S.-based studies, and evidence-based implementation guidelines.

PATIENTS/MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a cohort study to evaluate the sFlt-1/PlGF ratio for predicting PE within two weeks among pregnant individuals ≥18 years, ≥20 weeks gestation. Serum samples were obtained from routine prenatal visits or triage evaluations. sFlt-1/PlGF ratios were measured using Roche Elecsys assays, and …

Component Model Development Of Heat Exchangers, Expanders, And Control Valves For Autonomous Cryogenics Plant Cool-Down, William Harris Buhrig Iv

Mechanical & Aerospace Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The traditional method of cryogenic plant cool-down involves having continuous on-call staff to head into the office at any time to modify the existing multi-layered PID control systems if the on-call staff member detects a significant deviation from the cool-down plan. This thesis aims to outline an effective method for modeling the structure of systems with performance characteristics that deviate from design requirements and from ideal inlet-outlet correspondence, enabling the adjustment and modification of existing control structures across all Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (JLab) cryogenic refrigeration plants. Analytical Modeling and Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) are applied to model the …

The Impact Of Transmission Thresholds Across Multiple Scales On The Spread Of Chronic Wasting Disease In Wisconsin, Jen Mcclure

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Fall 2023 to Present

Wildlife diseases can be difficult to control once they are established. This is especially true when they spread through contact with infectious material left in the environment. One such disease is chronic wasting disease (CWD), a fatal illness affecting deer and related species in North America and other regions. CWD is caused by prions, misfolded proteins that can remain infectious for years after shedding by infected hosts.

Recent research shows that CWD infection does not always follow from the gradual accumulation of prions through small contact events. Rather, an individual may need to encounter a certain prion dose all at …

Implications Of The Attenuated Allee Effect On Population Dynamics, Dana Strong

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Fall 2023 to Present

The Allee effect is an ecological phenomenon characterized by a per capita growth rate that increases as the population size increases in the context of low population density. The Allee effect can lead to rapid extinction events. Consequently, ecologists can attempt to control the strength of the Allee effect to help increase the population (in the case of endangered species) or decrease the population (in the case of parasites or pests).

This research aimed to study not the strength of the Allee effect, but the intensity of the Allee effect, or how rapidly cooperation between individuals causes the per capita …

Machine Learning Applications: Cell Tracking And Nonparametric Estimation Of Non-Smooth Divergences, Mina Mahbub Hossain

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Fall 2023 to Present

This thesis brings together two important research directions: how to compare different sets of data more accurately, and how to better understand how brain cancer cells move and change shape.

In the first part, we look at a problem in statistics: measuring how different two data sources are from each other. Traditional methods often make strong assumptions, which may not always hold in real situations. Our approach avoids those assumptions by using an ensemble method, a way of combining many weak estimators into one stronger result. This makes the method more flexible and reliable, especially when dealing with complex or …

Is Complexity Virtuous?, Ryan Elmore, Jack Strauss

Business Information and Analytics: Faculty Scholarship

(Kelly et al., 2024) show that increasing complexity in linear models, with potentially thousands of predictors, is "virtuous". Their work contradicts the dogma of model selection, including the Principles of Parsimony and Occam's Razor. They find that when the number of predictors far exceeds the number of observations, the bias-variance trade-off breaks down, the variance declines, and the Sharpe ratio increases. In the context of ridge regression, we find that very high complexity coupled with large penalty terms (excessive shrinkage) generate forecasts that converge to a rolling window of past returns. For example, we show the past twelve-month moving average …

Improving Glycemic Control Among Indonesian Urban Adults: A Digital And Behavioral Extension Of The Information–Motivation–Behavioral Skills Model, Imelda Appulembang

Kesmas

Management of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Indonesia continues to face challenges due to behavioral, informational, and technological gaps among patients. This study analyzed the influence of self-regulatory competence and information, motivation, family support, and digital health literacy on glycemic control behavior. A cross-sectional survey was conducted from February to April 2025 among 587 adults aged >30 years with T2DM enrolled in the Chronic Disease Management Program at primary health care in six major cities: Jakarta, Surabaya, Yogyakarta, Medan, Makassar, and Banjarmasin. Data were collected through structured questionnaires and analyzed using partial least squares structural equation modeling. The findings …

Benchmarking Dna Foundation Models For Genomic And Genetic Tasks, Haonan Feng, Lang Wu, Bingxin Zhao, Chad Huff, Jianjun Zhang, Jia Wu, Lifeng Lin, Peng Wei, Chong Wu

School of Medicine Faculty Publications

The rapid evolution of DNA foundation models promises to revolutionize genomics, yet comprehensive evaluations are lacking. Here, we present a comprehensive, unbiased benchmark of five models (DNABERT-2, Nucleotide Transformer V2, HyenaDNA, Caduceus-Ph, and GROVER) across diverse genomic and genetic tasks including sequence classification, gene expression prediction, variant effect quantification, and topologically associating domain (TAD) region recognition, using zero-shot embeddings. Our analysis reveals that mean token embedding consistently and significantly improves sequence classification performance, outperforming other pooling strategies. Model performance varies among tasks and datasets; while general purpose DNA foundation models showed competitive performance in pathogenic variant identification, they were less …

Tannin Supplementation Alters Foraging Behavior And Spatial Distribution In Beef Cattle, Bashiri Iddy Muzzo, R. Douglas Ramsey, Kelvyn Bladen, Juan J. Villalba

Wildland Resources Student Research

Beef production on chemically uniform grass monocultures can limit nutrient synchrony and contribute to uneven pasture use. We evaluated whether supplementing tannins with bioactive plant secondary compounds improves foraging dynamics and landscape use by beef cattle grazing a meadow bromegrass monoculture in ways aligned with rangeland sustainability. Twenty-four Angus cow–calf pairs were allocated to six 3.6-ha paddocks (four pairs/paddock), randomly assigned to Control (Ctrl; n = 3) or Tannin treatment (TT; n = 3). Animals received 1 kg/cow/day of DDGs, with TT receiving an added 0.4% tannins (2:1 condensed:hydrolyzable). Grazing occurred during four 15-day periods (July– September) across two years. …

Field Validation Of Multiple Species Distribution Models Shows Variation In Performance For Predicting Aedes Albopictus Distributions At The Invasion Edge, Anna V. Shattuck, Brandon D. Hollingsworth Ph.D., Jared Skrotzki, Scott R. Campbell, Christopher L. Romano, Courtney C. Murdock

Faculty Publications

Background

Climate and land use changes have resulted in range expansion of many species. In this shifting disease landscape, it is important to leverage tools that can predict the distributions of invading vectors to target surveillance and control efforts and identify at-risk populations. Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to predict ranges of invasive species; however, invasive species often violate assumptions of equilibrium and niche conservatism. Moreover, these studies are rarely validated using independent data.

Methods 

We use long-term surveillance data for Aedes albopictus, a highly invasive mosquito capable of transmitting several arboviruses, at its range edge to evaluate a …

Exploring The Impact Of Statistics Course Modality On Student Learning: A Mixed Methods Approach, Becky Kelleman

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The importance of statistical literacy has become increasingly evident, as individuals grapple with interpreting statistics to inform critical decisions. Despite the recognized significance of statistical literacy, challenges persist in both educators’ and students’ efforts to navigate the complexities of statistics education. The purpose of this study is to explore the impact of different course modalities on undergraduate students’ academic performance in introductory statistics courses. Using Social Cognitive Theory (SCT) as a theoretical framework, this research aims to shed light on the complex dynamics influencing statistical literacy attainment. By addressing gaps and inconsistencies in the current literature, this study seeks to …

On Some Algebraic And Dynamical Aspects Of Families Of Polynomials, Prabhakar Ratipal Yadav

Doctoral Theses

This thesis investigates several arithmetic and algebraic properties of polynomials, with a particular emphasis on irreducibility, monogenity, and the behaviour of iterated polynomial sequences. We first study truncated binomial polynomials over the rationals and establish new affirmative results concerning their irreducibility. A substantial part of the work develops a detailed analysis of Newton polygons under polynomial composition. These structural insights yield broad applications, including criteria for stability and eventual stability of large families of polynomials, as well as precise information about the degrees and number of irreducible factors appearing in their iterates. These ideas further connect to questions about ramification …

The Odds Don’T Lie: Mathematical Reasoning And Societal Ignorance In Don’T Look Up, Nysa Vedwan, Shane Carey

LASER Journal

In Adam McKay’s 2021 satirical sci-fi movie Don’t Look Up, two astronomers discover a comet heading directly toward Earth. Despite overwhelming evidence and near-certainty of global extinction, their warnings are ignored and ridiculed. This paper discusses the mathematical and scientific foundations of the movie’s social and political reception, and specifically focuses on orbital prediction and probabilistic modeling as they relate to public understanding of risk. This paper shows how data is often undermined by political and social dynamics, by connecting the fictional events of the movie with real-world crises like the COVID-19 pandemic and the climate emergency. In Don’t Look …

Spatially Mapped Statewide Estimated Potential Evapotranspiration Using An Efficient Surface Interpolation Method: A Case Study Of South Carolina, Sudhanshu S. Panda, Devendra M. Amatya, Ka Kit Liu, Augustine Muwamba, Timothy J. Callahan

Journal of South Carolina Water Resources

Potential evapotranspiration (PET) exhibits substantial spatial and temporal variability across large landscapes, necessitating site-specific estimation for accurate environmental and water resource assessments. However, obtaining PET or ET data for specific locations across an entire state remains challenging due to the limited number of weather stations and associated environmental datasets. This study aimed to develop an automated geospatial modeling framework to map PET distribution across South Carolina, USA, using PET estimated by the temperature-based Hargreaves–Samani (H–S) method with daily weather data from 59 NOAA stations. Because the accuracy of spatial interpolation depends on both the target variable and the desired spatial …