Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Inter-Rater Reliability Of Statistics Based On Reconstructed Individual Patient Data From Published Kaplan-Meier Curves, Megan E. Smith

Theses & Dissertations

Introduction: Time-to-event outcomes include two elements: an indicator variable for whether the event has taken place, and the length of time from some origin point to the occurrence of the event of interest. Due to the complexity of these data, secondary analysis methods, such as indirect comparisons and meta-analysis, are easier to perform when individual-level patient data (IPD) is available.

Objectives: In 2021, an R package IPDfromKM was published, which contains an algorithm for reconstructing IPD from a Kaplan-Meier graph. The current research aimed to investigate the reproducibility of the IPDfromKM algorithm.

Methods: Three statisticians (MS, LS, …

Comparing Hierarchical Data Structures And Hierarchical Data Analysis, Halley Jeanne Dante, Robert Rovetti

Honors Thesis

Real world data is inherently noisy and data analysis can be especially complex when noise is compounded in hierarchical and multilevel data structures. Since such data structures can be described using multiple approaches, the way data is collapsed and grouped within these structures can influence its resulting interpretation and analyses. To avoid discrepancies in data collapsing and grouping, multiple statistical approaches have been developed specifically to analyze multilevel data structures. Examples of multilevel statistical models are the two-factor ANOVA and the general linear model with repeated-measures (GLM-RR) which is typically used in the context of looking at change over time. …

Trends In Resources For Neonatal Intensive Care At Delivery Hospitals For Infants Born Younger Than 30 Weeks' Gestation, 2009-2020, Nansi S. Boghossian, Marco Geraci, Ciaran S. Phibbs, Scott A. Lorch, Erika M. Edwards, Jeffrey D. Horbar

Faculty Publications

Importance: In an ideal regionalized system, all infants born very preterm would be delivered at a large tertiary hospital capable of providing all necessary care. Objective: To examine whether the distribution of extremely preterm births changed between 2009 and 2020 based on neonatal intensive care resources at the delivery hospital. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study was conducted at 822 Vermont Oxford Network (VON) centers in the US between 2009 and 2020. Participants included infants born at 22 to 29 weeks' gestation, delivered at or transferred to centers participating in the VON. Data were analyzed from February to …

Brief Review: Low Frequency Event Charts (G-Charts) In Healthcare, James Espinosa, David Ho, Alan Lucerna, Henry Schuitema

Rowan-Virtua Research Day

The ability to determine if a change in a system is actually an improvement—or worsening in function—is one of the essential desiderata of quality improvement efforts. There are many ways to look at the issue. A special problem occurs when the event being studied is low frequency by nature. By way of example, patient falls in a given hospital or division of a hospital may occur in a way that is low frequency—yet each event is important. Process engineering has developed an approach to low frequency events. Part of this approach may involve specialized charts that look at the “time-between-events”—as …

Formula 101 Using 2022 Formula One Season Data To Understand The Race Results, Christopher Garcia, Oliver Lopez

Student Scholar Symposium Abstracts and Posters

The reason why I am interested in Formula One is that my friend showed me what Formula One was all about. It became interesting to see the action of the sport, including the battles the drivers have during the race and how fast they go through a corner. Also, when qualifying comes around, they push their car to the absolute limit to gain a few seconds off their opponents. The drivers only in the top 10 receive points from the winner getting 25 points, the last driver in the top 10 getting 1 point, and those below the top ten …

A Probabilistic Exploration Of Food Supplementation And Assistance, Logan Mattingly

Honors College Theses

Food insecurity is a stark threat that grips our country and affects households throughout our country. Dietary insufficiency manifests itself in ways that affect health and public safety. According to researchers, individuals who suffer from food insecurity have a higher risk of aggression, anxiety, suicide ideation and depression. These problems tend to occur unequally distributed among those households with lower income. In this work, an exploratory analysis within these data sets will be performed to examine the socio-economic, biographical, nutritional, and geographical principal components of food insecurity among survey participants and how the US Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) effects …

Fractal Newton Methods, Ali Akgül, David E. Grow

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Research & Creative Works

We introduce fractal Newton methods for solving (Formula presented.) that generalize and improve the classical Newton method. We compare the theoretical efficacy of the classical and fractal Newton methods and illustrate the theory with examples.

Fully Decoupled Energy-Stable Numerical Schemes For Two-Phase Coupled Porous Media And Free Flow With Different Densities And Viscosities, Yali Gao, Xiaoming He, Tao Lin, Yanping Lin

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Research & Creative Works

In this article, we consider a phase field model with different densities and viscosities for the coupled two-phase porous media flow and two-phase free flow, as well as the corresponding numerical simulation. This model consists of three parts: a Cahn-Hilliard-Darcy system with different densities/viscosities describing the porous media flow in matrix, a Cahn-illiard-Navier-Stokes system with different densities/viscosities describing the free fluid in conduit, and seven interface conditions coupling the flows in the matrix and the conduit. Based on the separate Cahn-Hilliard equations in the porous media region and the free flow region, a weak formulation is proposed to incorporate the …

An Integer Garch Model For A Poisson Process With Time-Varying Zero-Inflation, Isuru Panduka Ratnayake, V. A. Samaranayake

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Research & Creative Works

A serially dependent Poisson process with time-varying zero-inflation is proposed. Such formulations have the potential to model count data time series arising from phenomena such as infectious diseases that ebb and flow over time. The model assumes that the intensity of the Poisson process evolves according to a generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH) formulation and allows the zero-inflation parameter to vary over time and be governed by a deterministic function or by an exogenous variable. Both the expectation maximization (EM) and the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) approaches are presented as possible estimation methods. A simulation study shows that both parameter …

Quantifying The Effect Of Socio-Economic Predictors And The Built Environment On Mental Health Events In Little Rock, Ar, Alfieri Ek, Grant Drawve, Samantha Robinson, Jyotishka Datta

Sociology and Criminology Faculty Publications and Presentations

Law enforcement agencies continue to grow in the use of spatial analysis to assist in identifying patterns of outcomes. Despite the critical nature of proper resource allocation for mental health incidents, there has been little progress in statistical modeling of the geo-spatial nature of mental health events in Little Rock, Arkansas. In this article, we provide insights into the spatial nature of mental health data from Little Rock, Arkansas between 2015 and 2018, under a supervised spatial modeling framework. We provide evidence of spatial clustering and identify the important features influencing such heterogeneity via a spatially informed hierarchy of generalized …

Effects Of Land Use On Soil Microbial Communities In Tropical Montane Forests Of Malaysian Borneo, Yang Kai Tang

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Land use, such as logging and forest conversion to agriculture, can modify soil physicochemical and biological properties, and affect soil health. To understand how land use change can impact soil properties and canopy structure, we used a land use gradient in Malaysian Borneo consisting of six sites, including old growth forests, mixed forests, and agriculture fields. Specifically, we aimed to answer the following questions: (1) How do soil physicochemical properties vary across land use types? (2) Does bacterial diversity and composition vary across different land use types? (3) Does fungal diversity and composition vary across different land use types? We …

A Monte Carlo Analysis Of Nonprobability Sampling & Post Hoc Corrections, Julia Hong

Masters Theses & Specialist Projects

Nonprobability samples are often used in place of probability samples because the former are less trouble and less expensive. Unfortunately, it is difficult to determine how well a sample represents population parameters when using nonprobability samples. Researchers attempt to mitigate the disadvantages of nonprobability sampling by performing post hoc corrections, but this adjustment may not successfully undo the effects of nonprobability sampling. To examine these effects, a Monte Carlo simulation was conducted to create a pseudo-population from which samples were drawn. Forty-one conditions were replicated 10,000 times each, with each sample consisting of 100 observations. A post-stratification adjustment was made …

Nonparametric Estimation Of Elliptical Copulas, Panfeng Liang

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

Elliptical copulas provide flexibility in modeling the dependence structure of a random vector. They are often parameterized with a correlation matrix and a scalar function, called generator. The estimation of the generator can be challenging, because it is a functional parameter. In this dissertation, we provide a rigorous approach to estimating the generator in a Bayesian framework, which is simpler, more robust, and outperforms existing estimation methods in the literature. Based on the proposed framework in this dissertation, other researchers may modify the model for other types of generators in their own research.

Developing A Risk Assessment Instrument For Immigration Cases Under Federal Supervision, Mayra Eydie Pacheco

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Small But Mighty: Examing The Utility Of Microstatistics In Modeling Ice Hockey, Matt Palmer

Senior Honors Theses

As research into hockey analytics continues, an increasing number of metrics are being introduced into the knowledge base of the field, creating a need to determine whether various stats are useful or simply add noise to the discussion. This paper examines microstatistics – manually tracked metrics which go beyond the NHL’s publicly released stats – both through the lens of meta-analytics (which attempt to objectively assess how useful a metric is) and modeling game probabilities. Results show that while there is certainly room for improvement in understanding and use of microstats in modeling, the metrics overall represent an area of …

Dynamics Of Inertial And Non-Inertial Particles In Geophysical Flows, Nishanta Baral

Theses, Dissertations and Culminating Projects

We consider the dynamics of inertial and non-inertial particles in various flows. We investigate the underlying structures of the flow field by examining their Lagrangian coherent structures (LCS), which are found by computing finitetime Lyapunov exponents (FTLE). We compare the behavior of massless noninertial particles using the velocity fields from four models, the Duffing oscillator, the Bickley jet, the double-gyre flow, and a quasi-geostrophic geophysical flow model, with that of inertial particles. For inertial particles with finite size and mass, we use the Maxey-Riley equation to describe the particle’s motion. We explore the preferential aggregation of inertial particles and demonstrate …

Predicting High-Cap Tech Stock Polarity: A Combined Approach Using Support Vector Machines And Bidirectional Encoders From Transformers, Ian L. Grisham

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The abundance, accessibility, and scale of data have engendered an era where machine learning can quickly and accurately solve complex problems, identify complicated patterns, and uncover intricate trends. One research area where many have applied these techniques is the stock market. Yet, financial domains are influenced by many factors and are notoriously difficult to predict due to their volatile and multivariate behavior. However, the literature indicates that public sentiment data may exhibit significant predictive qualities and improve a model’s ability to predict intricate trends. In this study, momentum SVM classification accuracy was compared between datasets that did and did not …

Do Firms Respond To Peer Disclosures? Evidence From Disclosures Of Clinical Trial Results, Vedran Capkun, Yun Lou, Clemens A. Otto, Yin Wang

Research Collection School Of Accountancy

Using data on the registration of clinical trials and the disclosure of trial results, we examine how firms respond to peer disclosures. We find that firms are less likely to disclose their own trial results if the results of a larger number of closely related trials are disclosed by their peers. This relation is stronger if the firms face higher competition (as measured by the number of competing trials). It is weaker if the firms are further along in their research than the peers (as measured by the trials’ phase) and if the peers’ disclosures convey more negative news (as …

Characterization Of Public Opinion On Severity Of Mental Illness And Hiv Based On Individual Traits Using Hierarchical Multi-Category Probit Models, Md Moinul Ahsan

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

In this thesis, we focus on modeling categorical response variables from public opinion datasets. A hierarchical probit model was used to analyze these different variables. Particularly for multinomial data, we tried different covariate settings to see the model’s performance. For that purpose, we tried two different estimation techniques. The first algorithm uses identified parameters by fixing the first diagonal element of the covariance matrix at 1. The second algorithm uses one unidentifiable parameter and subsequently identifies the parameters by fixing the trace of the covariance matrix. The results from the simulation study confirm that the trace-restricted algorithm performs better with …

Uconn Baseball Batting Order Optimization, Gavin Rublewski, Gavin Rublewski

Honors Scholar Theses

Challenging conventional wisdom is at the very core of baseball analytics. Using data and statistical analysis, the sets of rules by which coaches make decisions can be justified, or possibly refuted. One of those sets of rules relates to the construction of a batting order. Through data collection, data adjustment, the construction of a baseball simulator, and the use of a Monte Carlo Simulation, I have assessed thousands of possible batting orders to determine the roster-specific strategies that lead to optimal run production for the 2023 UConn baseball team. This paper details a repeatable process in which basic player statistics …