Statistics and Probability Commons^™

Defining Characteristics That Lead To Cost-Efficient Veteran Nba Free Agent Signings, David Mccain

Honors Projects in Mathematics

Throughout the history of the NBA, decisions regarding the signing of free agents have been riddled with complexity. Franchises are tasked with finding out what players will serve as optimal free agent signings prior to seeing them perform within the framework of their team. This study hypothesizes that the adequacy of an NBA free agent signing can be modeled and predicted through the implementation of a machine learning model. The model will learn the necessary information using training and testing data sets that include various player biometrics, game statistics, and financial information. The application of this machine learning model will …

Reducing Restaurant Inventory Costs Through Sales Forecasting, Tyler Mason, Chris Schoen, Trevor Gilbert, Jonathan Enriquez

Senior Design Project For Engineers

Family Restaurant is a local restaurant in the greater Atlanta area that serves a variety of dishes that include an assortment of 19 different proteins. Currently, Family Restaurant places protein orders based on business intuition, and tends to over-stock and sometimes under-stock. To minimize inventory costs by reducing over-stocking and preventing under-stocking of proteins, we applied Facebook Prophet (FB Prophet), ARIMA, and XG Boost machine learning models to predict protein demand and then fed these results into a Fixed Time Period inventory model to make an overall order suggestion based on the specified time period. We trained our models on …

Two Sample Statistical Test For Location Parameters, Narinder Kumar, Arun Kumar

Journal of Modern Applied Statistical Methods

A class of distribution-free tests for the homogeneity of location parameters is proposed and compared with different competitors in terms of Pitman asymptotic relative efficiency. A numerical example is provided and a simulation study is made to check the performance of the tests.

Using A Distributive Approach To Model Insurance Loss, Kayla Kippes

Departmental Honors & Graduate Capstone Projects

Insurance loss is an unpredicted event that stands at the forefront of the insurance industry. Loss in insurance represents the costs or expenses incurred due to a claim. An insurance claim is a request for the insurance company to pay for damage caused to an individual’s property. Loss can be measured by how much money (the dollar amount) has been paid out by the insurance company to repair the damage or it can be measured by the number of claims (claim count) made to the insurance company. Insured events include property damage due to fire, theft, flood, a car accident, …

Teaching About The Global Refugee Crisis, Melissa Kafer

Honors Projects

Around the world, there are more than 30 million refugees (UNHCR, 2023) facing language barriers, cultural differences, prejudice, racism, and xenophobia. The number of admitted refugees in 2022 has more than doubled since 2021 (Duffin, 2022), and yet, many Americans do not know or understand the global refugee crisis. There are misconceptions in America that cause lack of empathy, bias, and prejudice towards refugees. Through the creation of four lesson plans, this research project aims to discover Americans’ misunderstandings regarding refugees and teach them about the crisis to remedy the misconceptions. This study includes a literature review detailing appropriate teaching …

A Pharmacoepidemiological Study Of Myocarditis And Pericarditis Following The First Dose Of Mrna Covid-19 Vaccine In Europe, Joana Tome, Logan Cowan, Isaac Fung

Biostatistics, Epidemiology & Environmental Health Sciences: Faculty Publications

This study assessed the myocarditis and pericarditis reporting rate of the first dose of mRNA COVID-19 vaccines in Europe. Myocarditis and pericarditis data pertinent to mRNA COVID19 vaccines (1 January 2021–11 February 2022) from EudraVigilance database were combined with European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC)’s vaccination tracker data. The reporting rate was expressed as events (occurring within 28 days of the first dose) per 1 million individuals vaccinated. An observed-to-expected (OE) analysis quantified excess risk for myocarditis or pericarditis following the first mRNA COVID-19 vaccination. The reporting rate of myocarditis per 1 million individuals vaccinated was 17.27 (95% …

Electric Vehicle Uptake: What Factors Are Motivating The Shift For College-Aged And Older Groups?, Jake Cardines

Honors Projects in Mathematics

Electric vehicles (EVs) arguably are the most quickly expanding form of transportation as the world races toward a greener future with advanced technology and reduced reliance on fossil fuels. This study analyzes various expected inputs to motivating consumers of particular age groups to purchase EVs, including examination of how the idea of EV ownership is currently perceived and testing which factors influence it positively and negatively. Data collected from 113 survey respondents serves as the basis for determining the responsiveness of potential future EV owners to variables such as vehicle brand and charging availability, electric range, costs associated with purchase …

The Bellarmine Bee Bed: Organizing A Native Plant Garden Using Feedback From The Local Community, Kate Moran

Undergraduate Theses

Animal pollinators are the cornerstone of healthy ecosystems. Their survival is essential for the persistence of entire food chains: from the flowers they cross-pollinate directly, to the animals who depend on those plants for nutrition. The establishment of pollinator gardens—particularly ones that consist of native plants—is an effective way to enhance their biodiversity, abundance, and well-being.

The main goal of this thesis is to construct a pollinator garden that maximizes the benefits for animal pollinators using feedback from local gardeners. A survey was used to gather information about the popularity and preferences of 40 flowering plants, and after analyzing the …

From Big Farm To Big Pharma: A Differential Equations Model Of Antibiotic-Resistant Salmonella In Industrial Poultry Populations, Rilyn Mckallip

Honors Theses

Antibiotics are used in poultry production as prophylaxis, curative treatment, and growth promotion. The first use is as prophylaxis, or prevention of common bacterial diseases. The crowded conditions in concentrated animal feeding operations necessitate management of infectious disease to ensure overall animal health and the profitability of such operations. In these farms, between 20,000 and 125,000 birds are raised in shed-like enclosures [3], with an average of less than one square foot of space per chicken [34]. Antibiotics are currently used in chicken farms to manage and prevent common bacterial diseases such as respiratory and digestive tract infections, as well …

Open Data Indicates That Collegedale Could Be A Bluezone, Tristan Deschamps, Alva Johnson

Campus Research Month

A blue zone is an indicator of exceptional health in a community. Adventists have a blue zone community in Loma Linda, but there has been little research into other Adventist populated areas that could be blue zones. Therefore, our goal is to show that open data suggests that a blue zone may exist near Southern Adventist University, specifically in Collegedale. This data has been gathered from different federal sources, including, the CDC, the US Census Bureau, the Tennessee Department of Health, official state records, and federal documents that are available to the public.

National Residency Matching Program: Looking At The Data Through Linear Regressions, Jacklyn Tellez

Undergraduate Theses

The National Residency Matching Program (NRMP) oversees the process of medical school graduates being matched to a residency program. The NRMP determines both the hospital and residency program for medical students. Prior to matching, both hospital programs and students rank each other. The NRMP uses these lists to determine the matches. Four distinct models using data from hospitals and applicants were used to determine what characteristics lead to a chance of being matched. Each model went through multiple rounds of testing to determine the importance of the different independent variables. In each data set, the dependent variable is either the …

Gpu Utilization: Predictive Sarimax Time Series Analysis, Dorothy Dorie Parry

Modeling, Simulation and Visualization Student Capstone Conference

This work explores collecting performance metrics and leveraging the output for prediction on a memory-intensive parallel image classification algorithm - Inception v3 (or "Inception3"). Experimental results were collected by nvidia-smi on a computational node DGX-1, equipped with eight Tesla V100 Graphic Processing Units (GPUs). Time series analysis was performed on the GPU utilization data taken, for multiple runs, of Inception3’s image classification algorithm (see Figure 1). The time series model applied was Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Exogenous (SARIMAX).

The Effectiveness Of Visualization Techniques For Supporting Decision-Making, Cansu Yalim, Holly A. H. Handley

Modeling, Simulation and Visualization Student Capstone Conference

Although visualization is beneficial for evaluating and communicating data, the efficiency of various visualization approaches for different data types is not always evident. This research aims to address this issue by investigating the usefulness of several visualization techniques for various data kinds, including continuous, categorical, and time-series data. The qualitative appraisal of each technique's strengths, weaknesses, and interpretation of the dataset is investigated. The research questions include: which visualization approaches perform best for different data types, and what factors impact their usefulness? The absence of clear directions for both researchers and practitioners on how to identify the most effective visualization …

Statistical Approach To Quantifying Interceptability Of Interaction Scenarios For Testing Autonomous Surface Vessels, Benjamin E. Hargis, Yiannis E. Papelis

Modeling, Simulation and Visualization Student Capstone Conference

This paper presents a probabilistic approach to quantifying interceptability of an interaction scenario designed to test collision avoidance of autonomous navigation algorithms. Interceptability is one of many measures to determine the complexity or difficulty of an interaction scenario. This approach uses a combined probability model of capability and intent to create a predicted position probability map for the system under test. Then, intercept-ability is quantified by determining the overlap between the system under test probability map and the intruder’s capability model. The approach is general; however, a demonstration is provided using kinematic capability models and an odometry-based intent model.

Length Bias Estimation Of Small Businesses Lifetime, Simeng Li

Honors Theses

Small businesses, particularly restaurants, play a crucial role in the economy by generating employment opportunities, boosting tourism, and contributing to the local economy. However, accurately estimating their lifetimes can be challenging due to the presence of length bias, which occurs when the likelihood of sampling any particular restaurant's closure is influenced by its duration in operation. To address the issue, this study conducts goodness-of-fit tests on exponential/gamma family distributions and employs the Kaplan-Meier method to more accurately estimate the average lifetime of restaurants in Carytown. By providing insights into the challenges of estimating the lifetimes of small businesses, this study …

Bridging The Chasm Between Fundamental, Momentum, And Quantitative Investing, Allen Hoskins, Jeff Reed, Robert Slater

SMU Data Science Review

A chasm exists between the active public equity investment management industry's fundamental, momentum, and quantitative styles. In this study, the researchers explore ways to bridge this gap by leveraging domain knowledge, fundamental analysis, momentum, crowdsourcing, and data science methods. This research also seeks to test the developed tools and strategies during the volatile time period of 2020 and 2021.

Comparison Of Sampling Methods For Predicting Wine Quality Based On Physicochemical Properties, Robert Burigo, Scott Frazier, Eli Kravez, Nibhrat Lohia

SMU Data Science Review

Using the physicochemical properties of wine to predict quality has been done in numerous studies. Given the nature of these properties, the data is inherently skewed. Previous works have focused on handful of sampling techniques to balance the data. This research compares multiple sampling techniques in predicting the target with limited data. For this purpose, an ensemble model is used to evaluate the different techniques. There was no evidence found in this research to conclude that there are specific oversampling methods that improve random forest classifier for a multi-class problem.

Extending The M3-Competition: Category And Interval-Specific Time Series Forecasting, Will Sherman, Kati Schuerger, Randy Kim, Bivin Sadler

SMU Data Science Review

The M3-Competition found that simple models outperform more complex ones for time series forecasting. As part of these competitions, several claims were made that statistical models exceeded machine learning (ML) techniques, such as recurrent neural networks (RNN), in prediction performance. These findings may over-generalize the capabilities of statistical models since the analysis measured the total forecasting accuracy across a wide range of industries and fields and with different interval lengths. This investigation aimed to assess how statistical and ML methods compared when individuating series by category and time interval. Utilizing the M3 data and building individual models using Facebook© Prophet …

Interpretable Learning In Multivariate Big Data Analysis For Network Monitoring, José Camacho, Rasmus Bro, David Kotz

Dartmouth Scholarship

There is an increasing interest in the development of new data-driven models useful to assess the performance of communication networks. For many applications, like network monitoring and troubleshooting, a data model is of little use if it cannot be interpreted by a human operator. In this paper, we present an extension of the Multivariate Big Data Analysis (MBDA) methodology, a recently proposed interpretable data analysis tool. In this extension, we propose a solution to the automatic derivation of features, a cornerstone step for the application of MBDA when the amount of data is massive. The resulting network monitoring approach allows …

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A New Generalized Gamma-Weibull Distribution And Its Applications, Nihimat Iyebuhola Aleshinloye, Samuel Adewale Aderoju, Alfred Adewole Abiodun, Bako Lukmon Taiwo

Al-Bahir

In this paper, a New Generalized Gamma-Weibull (NGGW) distribution is developed by compounding Weibull and generalized gamma distribution. Some mathematical properties such as moments, Rényi entropy and order statistics are derived and discussed. The maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method is used to estimate the model parameters. The proposed model is applied to two real-life datasets to illustrate its performance and flexibility as compared to some other competing distributions. The results obtained show that the new distribution fits each of the data better than the other competing distributions.