Statistics and Probability Commons^™

The Public Health Impact Of Paxlovid Covid-19 Treatment In The United States, Yuan Bai, Zhanwei Du, Lin Wang, Eric H. Y. Lau, Isaac Fung, Petter Holme, Ben Cowling, Alison Galvani, Robert Krug, Lauren Ancel Meyers

Biostatistics, Epidemiology & Environmental Health Sciences: Faculty Publications

The antiviral drug Paxlovid has been shown to rapidly reduce viral load. Coupled with vaccination, timely administration of safe and effective antivirals could provide a path towards managing COVID-19 without restrictive non-pharmaceutical measures. Here, we estimate the population-level impacts of expanding treatment with Paxlovid in the US using a multi-scale mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission that incorporates the within-host viral load dynamics of the Omicron variant. We find that, under a low transmission scenario (Re∼1.2) treating 20% of symptomatic cases would be life and cost saving, leading to an estimated 0.26 (95% CrI: 0.03, 0.59) million hospitalizations averted, 30.61 (95% …

Design, Analysis, And Interpretation Of Treatment Response Heterogeneity In Personalized Nutrition And Obesity Treatment Research, Roger S. Zoh, Bridget H. Esteves, Xiaoxin Yu, Amanda J. Fairchild, Ana I. Vazquez, Andrew G. Chapple, Andrew W. Brown, Brandon George, Derek Gordon, Douglas Landsittel, Gary L. Gadbury, Greg Pavela, Gustavo De Los Campos, Luis M. Mestre, David B. Allison

School of Public Health Faculty Publications

It is increasingly assumed that there is no one-size-fits-all approach to dietary recommendations for the management and treatment of chronic diseases such as obesity. This phenomenon that not all individuals respond uniformly to a given treatment has become an area of research interest given the rise of personalized and precision medicine. To conduct, interpret, and disseminate this research rigorously and with scientific accuracy, however, requires an understanding of treatment response heterogeneity. Here, we define treatment response heterogeneity as it relates to clinical trials, provide statistical guidance for measuring treatment response heterogeneity, and highlight study designs that can quantify treatment response …

Dynamic Influence Diagram-Based Deep Reinforcement Learning Framework And Application For Decision Support For Operators In Control Rooms, Joseph Mietkiewicz, Ammar N. Abbas, Chidera W. Amazu, Anders L. Madsen, Gabriele Baldissone

Articles

In today’s complex industrial environment, operators are often faced with challenging situations that require quick and accurate decision-making. The human-machine interface (HMI) can display too much information, leading to information overload and potentially compromising the operator’s ability to respond effectively. To address this challenge, decision support models are needed to assist operators in identifying and responding to potential safety incidents. In this paper, we present an experiment to evaluate the effectiveness of a recommendation system in addressing the challenge of information overload. The case study focuses on a formaldehyde production simulator and examines the performance of an improved Human-Machine Interface …

Differences In Clinical Presentation At First Hospitalization And The Impact On Involuntary Admissions Among First-Generation Migrant Groups With Non-Affective Psychotic Disorders., Kelly K Anderson, Rebecca Rodrigues

Epidemiology and Biostatistics Publications

BACKGROUND: Some migrant and ethnic minority groups have a higher risk of coercive pathways to care; however, it is unclear whether differences in clinical presentation contribute to this risk. We sought to assess: (i) whether there were differences in clinician-rated symptoms and behaviours across first-generation immigrant and refugee groups at the first psychiatric hospitalization after psychosis diagnosis, and (ii) whether these differences accounted for disparities in involuntary admission.

METHODS: Using population-based health administrative data from Ontario, Canada, we constructed a sample (2009-2013) of incident cases of non-affective psychotic disorder followed for two years to identify first psychiatric hospitalization. We compared …

Osher Map Library And Smith Center For Cartographic Education: A Five-Year Retrospective Impact Report, Elora Way, Emma Schwartz, Madison Burke, Becky Wurwarg

Publications

Since 1994, the Osher Map Library and Smith Center for Cartographic Education (OML) has been located within the Glickman Family Library on the Portland campus of the University of Southern Maine (USM). From its inception, the OML has been charged with not only expanding and preserving its collections, but with operating in the spirit of lifelong learning and a deep commitment to engaging scholars, students (Kindergarten through higher education), educators, community partners, and the public. OML meets this charge through various strategies and activities that include: educational outreach with Kindergarten (K) through 12th grade students and university students; professional development …

Approximate Confidence Distribution Computing, Suzanne Thornton, W. Li, M. Xie

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Works

Approximate confidence distribution computing (ACDC) offers a new take on the rapidly developing field of likelihood-free inference from within a frequentist framework. The appeal of this computational method for statistical inference hinges upon the concept of a confidence distribution, a special type of estimator which is defined with respect to the repeated sampling principle. An ACDC method provides frequentist validation for computational inference in problems with unknown or intractable likelihoods. The main theoretical contribution of this work is the identification of a matching condition necessary for frequentist validity of inference from this method. In addition to providing an example of …

Steady State Thermal Blooming With Convection: Modeling, Simulation And Analysis, Jeremiah S. Lane

Theses and Dissertations

The modeling, simulation, and analysis of high energy laser propagation is a research topic of significant interest to the defense community. A detailed understanding of the phenomenon of thermal blooming is crucial as it is detrimental to the propagation of lasers over long distances and in the presence of aerosols. The simulation of thermal blooming has historically relied on wave optics models and scaling laws for the fluid response to the laser. Since thermal blooming occurs in the presence of natural convection, however, there is a need for simulating this coupled fluid-beam effect using a first principles approach. In this …

Advanced Statistical Methodology For The Modern Probability Of Detection, Christine E. Knott

Theses and Dissertations

Probability of detection (POD) is an invaluable part of the calculations used by the USAF to validate the capabilities of nondestructive inspection systems for detecting defects in critical structural components on aircraft. A POD study consists of a designed experiment, linear modeling, and a probability of detection verses defect size curve. This curve is useful for determining how often an aircraft should be re-inspected. Some POD studies are unsuccessful in creating realistic POD curves because the statistical modeling used has two common limitations: (1) a lack of convergence leading to no solution and, (2) violated assumptions leading to incorrect solutions. …

Improving Deep Reinforcement Learning Methodology For Autonomous Defense And Escort Of Military High-Value Assets, Joseph Liles Iv

Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation explores the application of machine learning to the control of autonomous unmanned combat aerial vehicles (AUCAVs). In particular, this research applies deep reinforcement learning methodologies to a defensive air combat scenario wherein a fleet of AUCAVs protects a military high-value asset (HVA). A collection of air battle management scenarios along with an original simulation environment and a set of designed computational experiments support the approximation of high-quality decision policies by employing Markov decision processes, approximate dynamic programming algorithms, and deep neural networks for value function approximation.

Thermodynamics Of Learning With Parametric Probabilistic Models, Shervin Sadat Parsi

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This study delves into the learning process within the Probabilistic Parametric Models (PPMs) framework from a unique thermodynamic perspective. By exploring the core concepts of thermodynamics and its innate connection with information theory, we showcase how this interdisciplinary approach can effectively contribute to the domain of machine learning. In the initial chapter, we establish the link between the learning problem in PPMs and a thermodynamic process by reframing various elements of the learning process within the context of thermodynamics. We introduce novel information-theoretic measurements that provide insights into the information learned in both the parameter space and the overall performance …

Applying Structural Equation Modeling To Better Understand The Relationship Between Stressors, Social Support And Wellbeing In The Lives Of Spouse Dementia Caregivers, Craig Holden

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

Applying Structural Equation Modeling to Better Understand the Relationship Between Stressors, Social Support and Wellbeing in the Lives of Spouse Dementia Caregivers considers the utility of Pearlin et al.’s (1990) stress process model in understanding the needs of spouse caregivers. Data were drawn from eight biennial waves of the University of Michigan Health and Retirement Study (HRS) and analyzed using structural equation modeling. The final study sample comprised 774 spouses, average age 73, who were categorized based on Alzheimer’s Disease and Related Dementia (ADRD) and non-ADRD caregiver status. Results showed that for the study sample as a whole, social support …

Construction And Performance Optimization Of Bioconjugated Nanosensors For Early Detection Of Breast Cancer And Pro-Inflammatory Diseases, Pooja Gaikwad

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

In recent years, nanosensors have emerged as a tool with strong potential in medical diagnostics. Single-walled carbon nanotube (SWCNT) based optical nanosensors have notably garnered interest due to the unique characteristics of their near-infrared fluorescence emission, including tissue transparency, photostability, and various chiralities with discrete absorption and fluorescence emission bands. Additionally, the optoelectronic properties of SWCNT are sensitive to the surrounding environment, which makes them suitable for in vitro and in vivo biosensing. Single-stranded (ss) DNA-wrapped SWCNTs have been reported as optical nanosensors for cancers and metabolic diseases. Breast cancer and cardiovascular diseases are the most common causes of death …

Prediction Of Factors For Patients With Hypertension And Dyslipidemia Using Multilayer Feedforward Neural Networks And Ordered Logistic Regression Analysis: A Robust Hybrid Methodology, Wan Muhamad Amir W Ahmad, Mohamad Nasarudin Bin Adnan, Norhayati Yusop, Hazik Bin Shahzad, Farah Muna Mohamad Ghazali, Nor Azlida Aleng, Nor Farid Mohd Noor

Makara Journal of Health Research

Background: Hypertension is characterized by abnormally high arterial blood pressure and is a public health problem with a high prevalence of 20%–30% worldwide. This research combined multiple logistic regression (MLR) and multilayer feedforward neural networks to construct and validate a model for evaluating the factors linked with hypertension in patients with dyslipidemia.

Methods: A total of 1000 data entries from Hospital Universiti Sains Malaysia and advanced computational statistical modeling methodologies were used to evaluate seven traits associated with hypertension. R-Studio software was utilized. Each sample's statistics were calculated using a hybrid model that included bootstrapping.

Results: Variable …

Healthy Lifestyle Behaviors And Sociodemographic Characteristics Among Medical Students In Indonesia During The New Normal Era: A Cross-Sectional Study, Sharren Shera Vionnetta, Tommy Nugroho Tanumihardja, Kevin Kristian

Kesmas

This study aimed to identify medical students’ healthy lifestyle behaviors during the new normal era and to determine its relationship with sociodemographic factors, bearing in mind that, as future physicians and health role models, medical students play an important role in adopting and promoting healthy lifestyle behaviors to reduce the risk of future health problems as well as optimize communities’ health status. This cross-sectional study was conducted at the School of Medicine and Health Sciences of Universitas Katolik Indonesia Atma Jaya, with 111 medical students selected through stratified random sampling. Data were collected using sociodemographic characteristics (sex, residence, year of …

Forecasting Stock Indices With The Covid-19 Infection Rate As An Exogenous Variable, Mohammad Saha A. Patwary

School of Computing and Informatics

Forecasting stock market indices is challenging because stock prices are usually nonlinear and non- stationary. COVID-19 has had a significant impact on stock market volatility, which makes forecasting more challenging. Since the number of confirmed cases significantly impacted the stock price index; hence, it has been considered a covariate in this analysis. The primary focus of this study is to address the challenge of forecasting volatile stock indices during Covid-19 by employing time series analysis. In particular, the goal is to find the best method to predict future stock price indices in relation to the number of COVID-19 infection rates. …

Characteristics And Source-Specific Health Risks Of Ambient Pm2.5-Bound Pahs In An Urban City Of Northern Taiwan, Yu-Chieh Ting, Chun-Hung Ku, Yu-Xuan Zou, Kai-Hsien Chi, Jhy-Charm Soo, Chin-Yu Hsu, Yu-Cheng Chen

Biostatistics, Epidemiology & Environmental Health Sciences: Faculty Publications

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) with highly toxic compounds mainly exist in small-sized particles and can induce considerable human health risks. Studies on PM2.5-bound PAHs and their source-specific human health risks still remain scarce. Daily PM2.5 samples (n = 119) were collected every three days from 2016 to 2017 in Taipei city, Taiwan. Fifteen PAHs in PM2.5 were analyzed via gas chromatography tandem mass spectrometry (GC/MS-MS). We utilized a positive matrix factorization (PMF) model, diagnostic ratios, and potential source contribution function (PSCF) to identify the origins of PM2.5-bound PAHs. The annual concentration of total PAHs (TPAH) was 0.79 ± 0.67 ng …

Making The Error Bar Overlap Myth A Reality: Comparative Confidence Intervals, Frank S. Corotto

Georgia Journal of Science

Many interpret error bars to mean that if they do not overlap the difference is statistically “significant”. This overlap rule is really an overlap myth; the rule does not hold true for any conventional type of error bar. There are rules of thumb for estimating P values, but it would be better to show error bars for which the overlap rule holds true. Here I explain how to calculate comparative confidence intervals which, when plotted as error bars, let us judge significance based on overlap or separation. Others have published on these intervals (the mathematical basis goes back to John …

Sickle Cell Disease Treatment With Arginine Therapy (Start): Study Protocol For A Phase 3 Randomized Controlled Trial., Chris A Rees, David C. Brousseau, Daniel M Cohen, Anthony Villella, Carlton Dampier, Kathleen Brown, Andrew Campbell, Corrie E Chumpitazi, Gladstone Airewele, Todd Chang, Christopher Denton, Angela Ellison, Alexis Thompson, Fahd Ahmad, Nitya Bakshi, Keli D Coleman, Sara Leibovich, Deborah Leake, Dunia Hatabah, Hagar Wilkinson, Michelle Robinson, T Charles Casper, Elliott Vichinsky, Claudia R Morris

Department of Pediatrics Faculty Papers

BACKGROUND: Despite substantial illness burden and healthcare utilization conferred by pain from vaso-occlusive episodes (VOE) in children with sickle cell disease (SCD), disease-modifying therapies to effectively treat SCD-VOE are lacking. The aim of the Sickle Cell Disease Treatment with Arginine Therapy (STArT) Trial is to provide definitive evidence regarding the efficacy of intravenous arginine as a treatment for acute SCD-VOE among children, adolescents, and young adults.

METHODS: STArT is a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized, phase 3, multicenter trial of intravenous arginine therapy in 360 children, adolescents, and young adults who present with SCD-VOE. The STArT Trial is being conducted at 10 …

Atrial Fibrillation Management In Hispanic Adults, Tania Borja

Dissertations

Background: Research has found atrial fibrillation (AF) to be the primary or a contributing cause of death on 183,321 death certificates, and an underlying cause of death for 26,535 Americans in 2019. Findings indicate an increased AF diagnosis in White people compared to racial and ethnic minorities, contrasting widespread findings of increased prevalence of cardiovascular disease and ischemic strokes in minorities. Significant disparities—by race and socioeconomic status in disease distribution and access to testing and lifesaving treatments—have been documented, specifically associated with social determinants of health (SDOH); i.e., the conditions in which people are born, grow, live, work, and age. …

Using Geographic Information To Explore Player-Specific Movement And Its Effects On Play Success In The Nfl, Hayley Horn, Eric Laigaie, Alexander Lopez, Shravan Reddy

SMU Data Science Review

American Football is a billion-dollar industry in the United States. The analytical aspect of the sport is an ever-growing domain, with open-source competitions like the NFL Big Data Bowl accelerating this growth. With the amount of player movement during each play, tracking data can prove valuable in many areas of football analytics. While concussion detection, catch recognition, and completion percentage prediction are all existing use cases for this data, player-specific movement attributes, such as speed and agility, may be helpful in predicting play success. This research calculates player-specific speed and agility attributes from tracking data and supplements them with descriptive …