Statistics and Probability Commons^™

A Hybrid Ensemble Of Learning Models, Bivin Sadler, Dhruba Dey, Duy Nguyen, Tavin Weeda

SMU Data Science Review

Statistical models in time series forecasting have long been challenged to be superseded by the advent of deep learning models. This research proposes a new hybrid ensemble of forecasting models that combines the strengths of several strong candidates from these two model types. The proposed ensemble aims to improve the accuracy of forecasts and reduce computational complexity by leveraging the strengths of each candidate model.

Indirect Aggression And Victimization: Investigating Instrument Psychometrics, Gender Differences, And Its Relationship To Social Information Processing, Taylor Steeves

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

The study of indirect bullying behaviors, relational aggression and social aggression, has been of theoretical importance and interest to researchers and psychologists within the last few decades. In this investigation, using a convenience sample of 451 late adolescents attending a private university in the mid-Atlantic U.S., I examined the factor structure of two measures of indirect bullying, the Young Adult Social Behavior Scale – Victim (YASB-V) and the Young Adult Social Behavior Scale – Perpetrator (YASB-P). Using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), I found that the YASB-V comprised a four-factor model, differing from the model that had been identified in the …

The "Benfordness" Of Bach Music, Chadrack Bantange, Darby Burgett, Luke Haws, Sybil Prince Nelson

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

In this paper we analyze the distribution of musical note frequencies in Hertz to see whether they follow the logarithmic Benford distribution. Our results show that the music of Johann Sebastian Bach and Johann Christian Bach is Benford distributed while the computer-generated music is not. We also find that computer-generated music is statistically less Benford distributed than human- composed music.

Math And Democracy, Kimberly A. Roth, Erika L. Ward

Journal of Humanistic Mathematics

Math and Democracy is a math class containing topics such as voting theory, weighted voting, apportionment, and gerrymandering. It was first designed by Erika Ward for math master’s students, mostly educators, but then adapted separately by both Erika Ward and Kim Roth for a general audience of undergraduates. The course contains materials that can be explored in mathematics classes from those for non-majors through graduate students. As such, it serves students from all majors and allows for discussion of fairness, racial justice, and politics while exploring mathematics that non-major students might not otherwise encounter. This article serves as a guide …

The Importance Of Contrast Sensitivity, Color Vision, And Electrophysiological Testing In Clinical And Occupational Settings, Frances Silva

Theses & Dissertations

Visual acuity (VA) is universally accepted as the gold standard metric for ocular vision and function. Contrast sensitivity (CS), color vision, and electrophysiological testing for clinical and occupational settings are warranted despite being deemed ancillary and minimally utilized by clinicians. These assessments provide essential information to subjectively and objectively quantify and obtain optimal functional vision. They are useful for baseline data and monitoring hereditary and progressive ocular conditions and cognitive function. The studies in this dissertation highlight the value of contrast sensitivity, color vision, and cone specific electrophysiological testing, as well as the novel metrics obtained with potential practical clinical …

Causal Inference Methods For Estimation Of Survival And General Health Status Measures Of Alzheimer’S Disease Patients, Ehsan Yaghmaei

Computational and Data Sciences (PhD) Dissertations

Identifying optimal treatment options with respect to survival of Alzheimer's disease patients is crucially important and previously uninvestigated research question. Our objective was to estimate the causal effects of the most prevalent classes of Alzheimer’s disease drugs, Donepezil and Memantine, and their combined use on Survival and General Health Status Measures of Alzheimer's disease patients for the first five years after initial diagnosis. We carried out a thorough causal inference study using doubly robust estimators, nonparametric bootstrap confidence intervals, Bonferroni corrections for multiple comparisons and analyzing one of the largest high-quality medical databases containing millions of de-identified electronic health records …

Stochastic Processes And Multi-Resolution Analysis: A Trigonometric Moment Problem Approach And An Analysis Of The Expenditure Trends For Diabetic Patients, Isaac Nwi-Mozu

Computational and Data Sciences (PhD) Dissertations

This dissertation is divided into two distinct parts. The main theme of the first part is to study stochastic processes (and related signal processing questions) using tools in wavelet analysis, functional analysis (we use in particular the trigonometric moment problem), the theory of realization of rational functions, and reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. A novel form of multiresolution analysis is formulated in the discrete case that is used to study some stochastic processes. Using the trigonometric moment problem, we associate with a vector-valued wide-sense stationary process a multiresolution of a new kind. The notion of realization of rational functions was used …

Modeling Biphasic, Non-Sigmoidal Dose-Response Relationships: Comparison Of Brain- Cousens And Cedergreen Models For A Biochemical Dataset, Venkat D. Abbaraju, Tamaraty L. Robinson, Brian P. Weiser

Rowan-Virtua School of Osteopathic Medicine Departmental Research

Biphasic, non-sigmoidal dose-response relationships are frequently observed in biochemistry and pharmacology, but they are not always analyzed with appropriate statistical methods. Here, we examine curve fitting methods for “hormetic” dose-response relationships where low and high doses of an effector produce opposite responses. We provide the full dataset used for modeling, and we provide the code for analyzing the dataset in SAS using two established mathematical models of hormesis, the Brain-Cousens model and the Cedergreen model. We show how to obtain and interpret curve parameters such as the ED50 that arise from modeling, and we discuss how curve parameters might change …

Statistical Inference On Lung Cancer Screening Using The National Lung Screening Trial Data., Farhin Rahman

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation consists of three research projects on cancer screening probability modeling. In these projects, the three key modeling parameters (sensitivity, sojourn time, transition density) for cancer screening were estimated, along with the long-term outcomes (including overdiagnosis as one outcome), the optimal screening time/age, the lead time distribution, and the probability of overdiagnosis at the future screening time were simulated to provide a statistical perspective on the effectiveness of cancer screening programs. In the first part of this dissertation, a statistical inference was conducted for male and female smokers using the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) chest X-ray data. A …

Penalized Bayesian Exponential Random Graph Models., Vicki Modisette

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Networks have the critical ability to represent the complex interconnectedness of social relationships, biological processes, and the spread of diseases and information. Exponential random graph models (ERGM) are one of the popular statistical methods for analyzing network data. ERGM, however, struggle with computational challenges and degeneracy issues, further exacerbated by their inability to handle high-dimensional network data. Bayesian techniques provide a promising avenue to overcome these two problems. This paper considers penalized Bayesian exponential random graph models with adaptive lasso and adaptive ridge penalties to perform variable selection and reduce multicollinearity on a variety of networks. The experimental results demonstrate …

Probabilistic Modeling Of Social Media Networks, Distinguishing Phylogenetic Networks From Trees, And Fairness In Service Queues, Md Rashidul Hasan

Mathematics & Statistics ETDs

In this dissertation, three primary issues are explored. The first subject exposes who-saw-from-whom pathways in post-specific dissemination networks in social media platforms. We describe a network-based approach for temporal, textual, and post-diffusion network inference. The conditional point process method discovers the most probable diffusion network. The tool is capable of meaningful analysis of hundreds of post shares. Inferred diffusion networks demonstrate disparities in information distribution between user groups (confirmed versus unverified, conservative versus liberal) and local communities (political, entrepreneurial, etc.). A promising approach for quantifying post-impact, we observe discrepancies in inferred networks that indicate the disproportionate amount of automated bots. …

Comparing Predictive Performance Of Garch And Stochastic Volatility Models, Swapnaneel Nath

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

This paper compares the predictive performance of two commonly used financial models, the Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model, and the Stochastic Volatility model. Both techniques are used in the finance literature to model returns on an asset; the main difference between the two is that the former holds volatility as deterministic, whereas the latter treats it as a stochastic component. Three 10-year periods (2006-15, 2008-17, and 2010-19) of returns of the S&P-500 Index are used to train the two models. The parameter estimation is done using Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. Then, using Sequential Monte Carlo updates, returns for 2016, 2018, …

A Framework For Statistical Modeling Of Wind Speed And Wind Direction, Eva Murphy

All Dissertations

Atmospheric near surface wind speed and wind direction play an important role in many applications, ranging from air quality modeling, building design, wind turbine placement to climate change research. It is therefore crucial to accurately estimate the joint probability distribution of wind speed and direction. This dissertation aims to provide a modeling framework for studying the variation of wind speed and wind direction. To this end, three projects are conducted to address some of the key issues for modeling wind vectors.\\

First, a conditional decomposition approach is developed to model the joint distribution of wind speed and direction. Specifically, the …

A Data-Driven Multi-Regime Approach For Predicting Real-Time Energy Consumption Of Industrial Machines., Abdulgani Kahraman

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This thesis focuses on methods for improving energy consumption prediction performance in complex industrial machines. Working with real-world industrial machines brings several challenges, including data access, algorithmic bias, data privacy, and the interpretation of machine learning algorithms. To effectively manage energy consumption in the industrial sector, it is essential to develop a framework that enhances prediction performance, reduces energy costs, and mitigates air pollution in heavy industrial machine operations. This study aims to assist managers in making informed decisions and driving the transition towards green manufacturing. The energy consumption of industrial machinery is substantial, and the recent increase in CO2 …

Cannabidiol Tweet Miner: A Framework For Identifying Misinformation In Cbd Tweets., Jason Turner

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

As regulations surrounding cannabis continue to develop, the demand for cannabis-based products is on the rise. Despite not producing the psychoactive effects commonly associated with THC, products containing cannabidiol (CBD) have gained immense popularity in recent years as a potential treatment option for a range of conditions, particularly those associated with pain or sleep disorders. However, due to current federal policies, these products have yet to undergo comprehensive safety and efficacy testing. Fortunately, utilizing advanced natural language processing (NLP) techniques, data harvested from social networks have been employed to investigate various social trends within healthcare, such as disease tracking and …

Exploring Experimental Design And Multivariate Analysis Techniques For Evaluating Community Structure Of Bacteria In Microbiome Data, Kelsey Karnik

Department of Statistics: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The gut microbiome plays a crucial role in human health, and by working collaboratively with microbiologists, we aim to further our understanding of the human gut and its impact on human health. Promoting a diverse microbiome is emphasized throughout microbiology literature, and involving a statistician in designing experiments to relate gut bacteria and some measured health outcome is crucial for ensuring valid and accurate results. By adopting new experimental design and analysis methods, researchers can begin to gain a deeper understanding of how the genetics of our food affect the composition of taxa within the gut microbiome. This dissertation is …

Single-Index Multinomial Model For Analyzing Crime Data, Kwabena Gyamfi Duodu

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

We develop a flexible single-index multinomial model for analyzing crime data. In additionto the number of crimes reported, the data also includes covariates such as location, time of day, weather, and other demographic factors. We provide an estimation algorithm and develop R code for the single-index multinomial model. Using simulations, we evaluate the performance of the proposed estimation algorithm. When applied to crime data, the single-index multinomial model provides important insights into crime trends and risk variables, assisting in the development of tailored crime prevention programs. Policymakers and law enforcement organizations can use the model's projections to more efficiently allocate …

Robust Penalized Density Power Divergence Regression With Scad Penalty For High Dimensional Data Analysis, Maxwell Kwesi Mac-Ocloo

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

Amidst the exponential surge in big data, managing high-dimensional datasets across diverse fields and industries has emerged as a significant challenge. Conventional statistical methods struggle to handle their complexity, making analysis intricate. In response, we've formulated a robust estimator tailored to counter outliers and heavy-tailed errors. Our approach integrates the SCAD penalty into the Density Power Divergence method, effectively reducing insignificant coefficients to zero. This enhances analysis precision and result reliability.We benchmark our robust and penalized model against existing techniques like Huber, Tukey, LASSO, LAD, and LAD-LASSO. Employing both simulated and UCI machine learning repository datasets, we assess method performance …

Comparative Study Of Supervised Classification Techniques With A Modified Knn Algorithm, Noah Owusu

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

The goal of classification is to develop a model that can be used to accurately assign new observations to labeled classes based on the patterns learned from the training data. K-nearest Neighbors algorithm (KNN) is a popular and widely used algorithm for classification, however, its performance can be adversely affected by the presence of outliers in a dataset. In this study we have modified this existing KNN algorithm that can alleviate the effect of outliers in a dataset, thereby improving the performance of the KNN algorithm. We compared the performances of the Modified KNN method and the Existing KNN algorithm …

Robust Mahalanobis K-Means Algorithm In Comparison With Other Existing Clustering Methods., Eleazer Tabi Serebour

Open Access Theses & Dissertations

This study enhances K-means Mahalanobis clustering using Density Power Divergence (DPD) for outlier handling and detection. Through the utilization of simulations and the analysis of real-world data, our approach consistently outperforms standard K-means, Mahalanobis K-means, Fuzzy C-means, and others in clustering datasets with outliers. While our method performs similarly to others on spherical datasets, it ranks second to DBSCAN for arbitrary shapes. We showcase its superiority on real-life datasets (Iris flower and wheat seed), demonstrating resilient outlier identification. By navigating various structures and cluster characteristics, our Modified Mahalanobis K-means method proves adaptable and robust, offering insights into diverse clustering scenarios. …