Other Earth Sciences Commons^™

Greater Sage-Grouse Population Trends Across Wyoming, David R. Edmunds, Cameron L. Aldridge, Michael S. O'Donnell, Adrian P. Monroe

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The scale at which analyses are performed can have an effect on model results and often one scale does not accurately describe the ecological phenomena of interest (e.g., population trends) for wide-ranging species: yet, most ecological studies are performed at a single, arbitrary scale. To best determine local and regional trends for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Wyoming, USA, we modeled density-independent and -dependent population growth across multiple spatial scales relevant to management and conservation (Core Areas [habitat encompassing approximately 83% of the sage-grouse population on ~24% of surface area in Wyoming], local Working Groups [7 regional areas for …

Why Do Different Drought Indices Show Distinct Future Drought Risk Outcomes In The U.S. Great Plains?, Song Feng, Miroslav Trnka, Michael Hayes, Yongjun Zheng

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Vigorous discussions and disagreements about the future changes in drought intensity in the U.S. Great Plains have been taking place recently within the literature. These discussions have involved widely varying estimates based on drought indices and model-based projections of the future. To investigate and understand the causes for such a disparity between these previous estimates, the authors analyzed the soil moisture at the near-surface soil layer and the entire soil column, as well as the Palmer drought severity index, the Palmer Z index, and the standardized precipitation and evaporation index using the output from the Community Climate System Model, version …

Upper Blue Nile Basin Water Budget From A Multi-Model Perspective, Hahn Chul Jung, Augusto Getirana, Frederick Policelli, Amy Mcnally, Kristi R. Arsenault, Sujay Kumar, Tsegaye Tadesse, Christa D. Peters-Lidard

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Improved understanding of the water balance in the Blue Nile is of critical importance because of increasingly frequent hydroclimatic extremes under a changing climate. The intercomparison and evaluation of multiple land surface models (LSMs) associated with different meteorological forcing and precipitation datasets can offer a moderate range of water budget variable estimates. In this context, two LSMs, Noah version 3.3 (Noah3.3) and Catchment LSM version Fortuna 2.5 (CLSMF2.5) coupled with the Hydrological Modeling and Analysis Platform (HyMAP) river routing scheme are used to produce hydrological estimates over the region. The two LSMs were forced with different combinations of two reanalysis-based …

Climate Change And Population Growth Impacts On Surface Water Supply And Demand Of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, Bisrat Kifle Arsiso, Gizaw Mengistu Tsidu, Gerrit Hendrik Stoffberg, Tsegaye Tadesse

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Addis Ababa is expected to experience water supply stress as a result of complex interaction of urbanization and climate change. The aim of this study is to investigate water demand and supply prospects for the City of Addis Ababa by applying the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) hydrological model and using scenarios of population growth trends and climate change. The study includes analysis of water consumption, hydrological information and climate data which is statistically downscaled using approach used to generate climate data available at the Worldclim data center. Bias corrected climate model data of NIMR-HadGEM2-AO under a midrange RCP 4.5 …

Agricultural Trade Publications And The 2012 Midwestern U.S. Drought: A Missed Opportunity For Climate Risk Communication, Sarah P. Church, Tonya Haigh, Melissa Widhalm, Silvestre Garcia De Jalon, Nicholas Babin, J. Stuart Carlton, Michael Dunn, Katie Fagan, Cody L. Knutson, Linda Stalker Prokopy

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Midwestern United States experienced a devastating drought in 2012, leading to reduced corn and soybean yields and increased instances of pests and disease. Climate change induced weather variability and extremes are expected to increase in the future, and have and will continue to impact the agricultural sector. This study investigated how agricultural trade publications portrayed the 2012 U.S. Midwestern drought, whether climate change was associated with drought, and whether these publications laid out transformative adaptation measures farmers could undertake in order to increase their adaptive capacity for future climate uncertainty. We performed a content analysis of 1000 media reports …

Information Mining From Heterogeneous Data Sources: A Case Study On Drought Predictions, Getachew B. Demisse, Tsegaye Tadesse, Solomon Atnafu, Shawndra Hill, Brian D. Wardlow, Yared Bayissa, Andualem Shiferaw

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The objective of this study was to develop information mining methodology for drought modeling and predictions using historical records of climate, satellite, environmental, and oceanic data. The classification and regression tree (CART) approach was used for extracting drought episodes at different time-lag prediction intervals. Using the CART approach, a number of successful model trees were constructed, which can easily be interpreted and used by decision makers in their drought management decisions. The regression rules produced by CART were found to have correlation coefficients from 0.71–0.95 in rules-alone modeling. The accuracies of the models were found to be higher in the …

Socio-Environmental Drought Response In A Mixed Urban-Agricultural Setting: Synthesizing Biophysical And Governance Responses In The Platte River Watershed, Nebraska, Usa, Samuel C. Zipper, Kelly Helm Smith, Betsy Breyer, Jianxiao Qui, Anthony Kung, Dustin Herrmann

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

Ensuring global food and water security requires a detailed understanding of how coupled socio-environmental systems respond to drought. Using the Platte River Watershed in Nebraska (USA) as an exemplar mixed urban-agricultural watershed, we quantify biophysical response to drought in urban (Lincoln NE) and agricultural systems alongside a qualitative analysis of governance response and adaptive capacity of both sectors. Synthesis of results highlights parallels and discontinuities between urban and agricultural preparations for and response to drought. Whereas drought prompted an increase in well installations and expansion of water-intensive crops, e.g., corn, in the agricultural sector, outdoor water use restrictions rapidly curtailed …

Cocorahs Observers Contribute To “Condition Monitoring” In The Carolinas: A New Initiative Addresses Needs For Drought Impacts Information, Kirsten Lackstrom, Amanda Farris, David Eckhardt, Nolan Doesken, Henry Reges, Julian Turner, Kelly Helm Smith, Rebecca Ward

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

No abstract provided.

Taphonomic Problems In Reconstructing Sea-Level History From The Late Quaternary Marine Terraces Of Barbados, Daniel R. Muhs, Kathleen R. Simmons

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Although uranium series (U-series) ages of growth-position fossil corals are important to Quaternary sea-level history, coral clast reworking from storms can yield ages on a terrace dating to more than one high-sea stand, confounding interpretations of sea-level history. On northern Barbados, U-series ages corals from a thick storm deposit are not always younger with successively higher stratigraphic positions, but all date to the last interglacial period (~127 ka to ~112 ka), Marine Isotope Substage (MIS) 5.5. The storm deposit ages are consistent with the ages of growth-position corals found at the base of the section and at landward localities on …

Balancing Stability And Flexibility In Adaptive Governance: An Analysis Of Tools Available In U.S. Environmental Law, Robin Kundis Craig, Ahjond S. Garmestani, Craig R. Allen, Craig Anthony (Tony) Arnold, Hannah E. Birge, Hannah Birge, Daniel A. Decaro, Alexander K. Fremier, Alexander K. Fremier, Hannah Gosnell, Edella C. Schlager

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Adaptive governance must work “on the ground,” that is, it must operate through structures and procedures that the people it governs perceive to be legitimate and fair, as well as incorporating processes and substantive goals that are effective in allowing social-ecological systems (SESs) to adapt to climate change and other impacts. To address the continuing and accelerating alterations that climate change is bringing to SESs, adaptive governance generally will require more flexibility than prior governance institutions have often allowed. However, to function as good governance, adaptive governance must pay real attention to the problem of how to balance this increased …

Smartphone Technologies And Bayesian Networks To Assess Shorebird Habitat Selection, Sara L. Zeigler, E. Robert Thieler, Benjamin T. Gutierrez, Nathaniel G. Plant, Megan Hines, James D. Fraser, Daniel H. Catlin

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Understanding patterns of habitat selection across a species’ geographic distribution can be critical for adequately managing populations and planning for habitat loss and related threats. However, studies of habitat selection can be time consuming and expensive over broad spatial scales, and a lack of standardized monitoring targets or methods can impede the generalization of site-based studies. Our objective was to collaborate with natural resource managers to define available nesting habitat for piping plovers (Charadrius melodus) throughout their U.S. Atlantic coast distribution from Maine to North Carolina, with a goal of providing science that could inform habitat management in …

Camera System Considerations For Geomorphic Applications Of Sfm Photogrammetry, Adam R. Mosbrucker, Jon J. Major, Kurt R. Spicer, John Pitlick

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

The availability of high-resolution, multi-temporal, remotely sensed topographic data is revolutionizing geomorphic analysis. Three-dimensional topographic point measurements acquired from structure-from-motion (SfM) photogrammetry have been shown to be highly accurate and cost-effective compared to laser-based alternatives in some environments. Use of consumer-grade digital cameras to generate terrain models and derivatives is becoming prevalent within the geomorphic community despite the details of these instruments being largely overlooked in current SfM literature.

A practical discussion of camera system selection, configuration, and image acquisition is presented. The hypothesis that optimizing source imagery can increase digital terrain model (DTM) accuracy is tested by evaluating accuracies …

Channel-Planform Evolution In Four Rivers Of Olympic National Park, Washington, Usa: The Roles Of Physical Drivers And Trophic Cascades, Amy E. East, Kurt J. Jenkins, Patricia J. Happe, Jennifer A. Bountry, Timothy J. Beechie, Mark C. Mastin, Joel B. Sankey, Timothy J. Randle

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Identifying the relative contributions of physical and ecological processes to channel evolution remains a substantial challenge in fluvial geomorphology. We use a 74-year aerial photographic record of the Hoh, Queets, Quinault, and Elwha Rivers, Olympic National Park, Washington, USA, to investigate whether physical or trophic-cascade-driven ecological factors – excessive elk impacts after wolves were extirpated a century ago – are the dominant drivers of channel planform in these gravel-bed rivers.We find that channel width and braiding show strong relationships with recent flood history. All four rivers widened significantly after having been relatively narrow in the 1970s, consistent with increased flood …

Semi-Arid Grassland Bird Responses To Patch-Burn Grazing And Drought, Susan K. Skagen, David J. Augustine, Justin D. Derner

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

As grassland birds of central North America experience steep population declines with changes in land use, management of remaining tracts becomes increasingly important for population viability. The integrated use of fire and grazing may enhance vegetation heterogeneity and diversity in breeding birds, but the subsequent effects on reproduction are unknown. We examined the influence of patch-burn grazing management in shortgrass steppe in eastern Colorado on habitat use and reproductive success of 3 grassland bird species, horned lark (Eremophila alpestris), lark bunting (Calamospiza melanocorys), and McCown’s longspur (Rhynchophanes mccownii), at several spatial scales during 2011 …

Lack Of Observed Movement Response To Lead Exposure Of California Condors, Sharon A. Poessel, Joseph Brandt, Linda Uyeda, Molly Astell, Todd E. Katzner

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Lead poisoning is an important conservation concern for wildlife, and scavenging birds are especially at risk from consumption of carcasses of animals killed with lead ammunition. Because current methods to identify lead exposure require animal capture and blood collection, management would benefit from the development of a less costly and noninvasive behavioral test for illness in wild animals. We attempted to design such a test to identify lead exposure in California condors (Gymnogyps californianus) that we tracked with global positioning system (GPS) telemetry in southern California, USA, 2013–2016. We measured blood-lead concentrations in tracked birds and expected that …

Effects Of Industrial And Investigator Disturbance On Arctic-Nesting Geese, Brandt W. Meixell, Paul L. Flint

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Oil and gas development on the Arctic Coastal Plain (ACP) of Alaska, USA may have effects on Arctic-nesting birds. To estimate effects of industrial activity and investigator disturbance on avian productivity, we monitored nests of greater white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons) with digital cameras and periodic nest visits during 2013–2014 at 2 sites on the ACP. A disturbed site was adjacent to human-made infrastructure and industrial clean-up activities initiated at the onset of the study and a control site was >2 km from sources of industrial disturbance. We assessed variation in estimates of incubation constancy, nest survival, and predator …

Simulating The Effects Of Management Practices On Cropland Soilorganic Carbon Changes In The Temperate Prairies Ecoregion Of Theunited States From 1980 To 2012, Zhengpeng Li, Shuguang Liu, Zhengxi Tan, Terry L. Sohl, Yiping Wu

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

Understanding the effects of management practices on soil organic carbon (SOC) is important for design-ing effective policies to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture. In the Midwest United States,management practices in the croplands have been improved to increase crop production and reduce SOCloss since the 1980s. Many studies of SOC dynamics in croplands have been performed to understandthe effects of management, but the results are still not conclusive. This study quantified SOC dynam-ics in the Midwest croplands from 1980 to 2012 with the General Ensemble Biogeochemical ModellingSystem (GEMS) and available management data. Our results showed that the total SOC in …

Weathering And Erosion Of Fractured Bedrock Systems, Marina I. Lebedeva, Susan L. Brantley

United States Geological Survey: Staff Publications

We explore the contribution of fractures (joints) in controlling the rate of weathering advance for a low-porosity rock by using methods of homogenization to create averaged weathering equations. The rate of advance of the weathering front can be expressed as the same rate observed in non-fractured media (or in an individual block) divided by the volume fraction of nonfractured blocks in the fractured parent material. In the model, the parent has fractures that are filled with a more porous material that contains only inert or completely weathered material. The low-porosity rock weathers by reaction-transport processes. As observed in field systems, …

Useful To Usable: Developing Usable Climate Science For Agriculture, Linda Stalker Prokopy, J. Stuart Carlton, Tonya Haigh, Maria Carmen Lemos, Amber Saylor Mase, Melissa Widhalm

National Drought Mitigation Center: Faculty Publications

The Useful to Usable (U2U) project was a six-year research and extension project funded by the United States Department of Agriculture to provide both useful and usable climate information for the agricultural (corn) sector in the Midwestern United States. The project adopted an extensive co-production of knowledge and decision-making approach that involved intense iteration with potential end-users, including farmers and a variety of professional agricultural advisors, through focus groups and surveys, feedback at outreach events, and frequent informal interactions to develop both decision support tools and delivery mechanisms that met stakeholder needs. This overview paper for this special issue illustrates …

Droughtscape, Winter 2017, National Drought Mitigation Center

DroughtScape: Quarterly Newsletter of the National Drought Mitigation Center (2007–2023)

Contents

NDMC partners with Sioux tribes to build climate resiliency

Drought intensifies in some regions of U.S. in fall

Fire danger and sequoia deaths in third quarter

2016: Year in review

MENA region forums elicit

feedback from stakeholders

Tech pass-off in Tunisia

Midwest DEWS meetings build collaboration, relationships

Workshop links drought, socioeconomic impacts/p>

Drought center helps ranchers prepare for drought

Drought tourney in Nebraska goes low tech