Economics Commons^™

Forecasting China’S Foreign Trade For 2021, Yunjie Wei, Xun Zhang, Yuying Sun, Yun Bai, Shouyang Wang

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

This study analyzes the situation of China's foreign trade from January to November in 2020, and then three forecasting scenarios are constructed based on four aspects, including China's economic growth, the international demand, Sino-US trade friction, and the development of the COVID-19. Under these scenarios, a new decomposition and composition methodology is proposed to forecast 2021 China's foreign trade, by integrating the econometric models, artificial intelligence methods, and the system analysis method. In 2021, under the baseline scenario that the COVID-19 pandemic will be under certain control, the global economy exhibits slow recovery and China's economy grows steadily, the total …

Forecast Of China’S Economic Growth Rate In 2021 And Policy Suggestions, Xikang Chen, Cuihong Yang, Kunfu Zhu, Huijuan Wang, Xinru Li, Qingyan Jiang

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

Under the joint impact of the COVID-19 epidemic and the complex international situation, the future direction of China's economic development has attracted much attention. This study systematically analyzes and forecasts the development trend and regularity of China's medium and long-term economic growth rate. It is expected that the medium and long-term economic growth rate of China will show a downward trend in a wave shape. Based on the systematic integrated prediction approach on annual GDP growth proposed by our team, this study reviews China's economic development in 2020 and forecasts China's economic growth rate in 2021. It is expected that …

Nevada's Plan For Recovery And Resilience, Sri International, Rcg Economics, Brookings Mountain West

Policy Briefs and Reports

The report that follows contains the following components:

• An economic forecast from RCG Economics on the situation expected for Nevada—GDP and employment—in the fall of 2021 (subject to all the present uncertainties faced by Nevada and the country as a whole).
• A series of immediate actions, in which GOED plays a leadership role, to shelter and prepare for recovery key components of Nevada’s economy. The particular focus is on “Main Street” and small and medium sized businesses.
• A set of visionary strategies, firmly grounded in Nevada’s underlying assets, that will accelerate the diversification of the state’s economy and the transition …

Trade And Informality In The Presence Of Labor Market Frictions And Regulations, Rafael Dix-Carneiro, Pinelopi K. Goldberg, Costas Meghir, Gabriel Ulyssea

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We build an equilibrium model of a small open economy with labor market frictions and imperfectly enforced regulations. Heterogeneous firms sort into the formal or informal sector. We estimate the model using data from Brazil, and use counterfactual simulations to understand how trade affects economic outcomes in the presence of informality. We show that: (1) Trade openness unambiguously decreases informality in the tradable sector, but has ambiguous effects on aggregate informality. (2) The productivity gains from trade are understated when the informal sector is omitted. (3) Trade openness results in large welfare gains even when informality is repressed. (4) Repressing …

Consumer Information And The Limits To Competition, Mark Armstrong, Jidong Zhou

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper studies competition between firms when consumers observe a private signal of their preferences over products. Within the class of signal structures which induce pure-strategy pricing equilibria, we derive signal structures which are optimal for firms and those which are optimal for consumers. The firm-optimal policy amplifies underlying product differentiation, thereby relaxing competition, while ensuring consumers purchase their preferred product, thereby maximizing total welfare. The consumer-optimal policy dampens differentiation, which intensifies competition, but induces some consumers to buy their less-preferred product. Our analysis sheds light on the limits to competition when the information possessed by consumers can be designed …

Mixed Bundling In Oligopoly Markets, Jidong Zhou

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper proposes a framework for studying competitive mixed bundling with an arbitrary number of firms. We examine both a firm’s incentive to introduce mixed bundling and equilibrium tariffs when all firms adopt the mixed-bundling strategy. In the duopoly case, relative to separate sales, mixed bundling has ambiguous impacts on prices, profit and consumer surplus; with many firms, however, mixed bundling typically lowers all prices, harms firms and benefits consumers.

Do Truth-Telling Oaths Improve Honesty In Crowd-Working?, Nicolas Jacquemet, Alexander G. James, Stéphane Luchini, James J. Murphy, Jason F. Shogren

ESI Publications

This study explores whether an oath to honesty can reduce both shirking and lying among crowd-sourced internet workers. Using a classic coin-flip experiment, we first confirm that a substantial majority of Mechanical Turk workers both shirk and lie when reporting the number of heads flipped. We then demonstrate that lying can be reduced by first asking each worker to swear voluntarily on his or her honor to tell the truth in subsequent economic decisions. Even in this online, purely anonymous environment, the oath significantly reduced the percent of subjects telling “big” lies (by roughly 27%), but did not affect shirking. …

Education And Life Satisfaction: A Marginal Mediation Analysis, Faiza Hassan, Hafsa Hina, Abdul Qayyum

Business Review

The current micro-level study explores the impact of education on life satisfaction of individuals in Pakistan via six mediating factors that are health, employment status, marital status, number of children, the scale of income and freedom of choice. The differences based on gender, marital status and the scale of income are also analyzed by using data from Wave 6 (2010-2014) of the World Values Survey. The marginal mediation technique by Barrett (2018) is used. It is observed that education plays a significant role in affecting life satisfaction. The channels of health, freedom and scale of income are found significant in …

Equity Liquidity, Firm Investment And Financial Performance: An Assessment Of The Role Of Financial Development, Maria Karim, Abdul Rashid

Business Review

This paper examines the impact of equity liquidity (EQLQ) on firm performance (FPER) and firm investment (FINV) decisions. It also examines whether financial sector development (FSD) decreases the importance of EQLQ for firms' financial performance and investment policy. An unbalanced panel dataset for 360 non-financial Pakistani firms covering the period 2001-2018 is used. The results suggest that increased EQLQ has significant positive impact on firms' investment decisions and financial performance. However, we find that enhanced FSD significantly reduces the investment-favoring and performance enhancing role of EQLQ. The findings on the effects of EQLQ on both FINV and FPER are consistent …

Speculation And Returns' Volatility: Evidence From Pakistan Mercantile Exchange, Falik Shear

Business Review

The debate about the role of speculators in commodity markets has been intensified after the financialization. The current study augments the empirical evidence related to speculators and their impact on volatility of commodity markets. In doing so, the study uses daily data between 12th November 2009 to 30th April 2020 for oil and gold future contracts from Pakistan Mercantile Exchange. The findings suggest that speculative activity positively and significantly affects the returns' volatility. These findings support the destabilizing hypothesis, which argues that speculators create distortions in commodity markets. The findings have important implication for market participants (e.g., absence of welfare …

Extreme Tails Behavior In Asian Currency Markets, Sumaira Zia, Arshad Hassan, Ayesha Zia

Business Review

This study examines extreme tail behavior in Asian currency markets for the period of 2005-2018. Value-at-Risk (VaR) is estimated through Extreme Value Theory (EVT) approach to forecast losses incurred in a day in Asian currencies. Initially EVT approach is used to estimate extreme losses on the left tail of the distribution. Then, the VaR estimation of this approach is back tested through traditional and advance back testing methods to ascertain the accuracy of the models used. Results indicate that the estimation of GPD static model is relevant for extreme risk forecasting in EVT approach at both 95% and 99% confidence …

Quality Minus Junk Factor: A Study On Asset Pricing Dynamics In The Equity Market Of Pakistan, Shahrbano ., Sumayya Chughtai, Tahira Awan

Business Review

This study examines the role of quality minus junk factor in explaining cross-sectional differences in stock returns for the equity market of Pakistan. A new factor quality minus junk has been added to the existing Fama & French three factor model (1993) as a fourth factor to check whether it is priced as a risk factor. The study also compares the explanatory power of the newly proposed model with the existing single-factor Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and Fama & French three factor model (1993). A high quality data set of 70 non-financial firms listed on the PSX is employed …

Lessons Learned: Ron Borzekowski, Mercedes Cardona, Rosalind Z. Wiggins

Journal of Financial Crises

Ron Borzekowski was a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Board when he was detailed to join the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC) as a senior researcher and later became deputy to research director Greg Feldberg. The 10-member bipartisan commission, charged with investigating and determining the causes of the crisis, held more than 19 hearings, and interviewed more than 700 people from September 2009 to Jan. 2011. It issued a 662-page report explaining why the crisis came about and the roles of financial institutions, government, and the public. This Lessons Learned is based on an interview with Mr.Borzekowski.

Lessons Learned: Greg Feldberg, Sandra Ward, Rosalind Z. Wiggins

Journal of Financial Crises

Greg Feldberg was a senior supervisory financial analyst at the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve experienced in regulating large banks when he was recruited to the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC) where he worked from 2010-11, becoming its Director of Research. The FCIC was a bipartisan commission charged with investigating the causes of the global financial crisis of 2007-09. Feldberg shared thoughts about some of the challenges faced by the commission and why its report is important. This "Lessons Learned" is based on an interview with Mr. Feldberg.

Lessons Learned: Christopher Seefer, Mercedes Cardona

Journal of Financial Crises

Christopher Seefer was recruited to the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC) to serve as the commission’s director of investigations. The 10-member bipartisan commission wascharged with investigating and determining the cause of the global financial crisis of 2007-09 (GFC). The commission held over 19 hearings and interviewed more than 700 people from September 2010 to January 2011 and produced a662-page report that attempted to explain why the crisis came about and the roles of government and private enterprises in the crisis.This “Lessons Learned” is based on an interview with Mr. Seefer.

Lessons Learned: Gary Cohen, Sandra Ward

Journal of Financial Crises

Gary Cohen joined the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC) in December 2009 to serve as its general counsel at the request of commission chairman Phil Angelides. The FCIC was a 10-member bipartisan group convened by Congress to investigate the causes of the global financial crisis of 2007-09. Cohen had a wide-ranging and ad hoc position that included advising commissioners and staffers on administrative matters and protocols. In addition, he assisted in document requests and compelling witnesses to testify and, on occasion, in conducting interviews and public hearings. He played an instrumental role in editing the commission’s final report. This “Lessons …

Lessons Learned: Wendy Edelberg, Sandra Ward

Journal of Financial Crises

Wendy Edelberg served initially as Director of Research at the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC) before eventually being named Executive Director. Established in the wake of the global financial crisis of 2007-09, the FCIC was a bipartisan panel of six Democrats and four Republicans charged with determining the causes of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. Edelberg built the organization from the ground up, hiring staff, instituting operating procedures, establishing guidelines, managing communications, and reporting to the commissioners. This "Lesson Learned" is based on an interview with Ms. Edelberg.

Lessons Learned: Phil Angelides, Sandra Ward

Journal of Financial Crises

Phil Angelides chaired the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission (FCIC) established by Congress in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2007-09 with the purpose of understanding what precipitated the crisis so that any future crises might be averted. The 10-member bipartisan commission, known as the “Angelides Commission” after its chair, convened in September 2010. Meeting in a span of 15 months and holding 19 public hearings and interviewing more than 700 people, the commission submitted its findings in January 2011. The commission concluded that the crisis was avoidable, the “result of human actions, inactions, and misjudgments.” The report included …

Monetization Of Fiscal Deficits And Covid-19: A Primer, Aidan Lawson, Greg Feldberg

Journal of Financial Crises

Monetization—also known as “money-financed fiscal programs” or “money-printing”—occurs when a government finances itself by issuing currency or other non-interest-bearing liabilities, such as bank reserves. It poses real risks—potentially excessive inflation and encroachment on central-bank independence—and some paint it as a relic of a bygone era. The onset of the COVID-19 crisis, however, forced governments to spend heavily to combat the considerable economic and public health impacts. As government deficits climbed, monetization re-entered the conversation as a way to avoid the massive debt burdens that some nations may face. This paper describes how monetization works, provides key historical examples, and examines …

Determinants Of Business Cycle Synchronisation In The Common Monetary Area In Southern Africa, Gustaf Dillner

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper examines the key factors that determine business cycle synchronisation in the Common Monetary Area in Southern Africa by applying the extreme bounds analysis. I investigate traditional structural indicators and policy indicators of output correlation with annual data from 1980 to 2018. A positive effect of sector homogeneity and trade intensity on business cycle synchronisation is identified. However, whereas sector homogeneity is a growing trend correlating with an increasing trend of cycle correlation, trade intensity is not. Instead, trade intensity increases significantly in periods of stagnant growth when cycle correlation is higher, but no long-term trend can be seen.

The Effect Of National Leaders’ Profiles On Gdp Per Capita, Maha Mostafa Gaber

Theses and Dissertations

A national leader is the policy maker in a country, whose economical decisions hold the power to make a nation either prosper or collapse. Therefore, it becomes crucial to understand the official who enact these decisions. A unique dataset of over 326 world leaders from 51 countries between the period 1972 to 2018 was constructed, building on leader Experience and Attribute Descriptions Database, in order to study the differences in leaders’ characteristics and determine the most important attributes which significantly affect level of GDP per capita. This paper studies the effect of government leaders’ profiles on GDP per capita by …

Take A Break!...Or More., Maria Saez Marti

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

I investigate the optimal timing and length of breaks in a model with fatigue. A break’s length determines the worker’s productivity once work is resumed. I show that all breaks should be identical, equally spaced and long enough to fully recover productivity. When taking breaks is costless, the higher the number of breaks the better. Otherwise, the optimal number is finite and those workers whose productivity falls more at the beginning of the day should take more breaks. Workaholics take their breaks too early and make them too short, from the employers’ viewpoint. The opposite is true for leisure-oriented workers.

Why Do People Follow Popular, Or Fad, Diets?, Christopher R. Gustafson

Cornhusker Economics

The tradition of goal setting at the start of a year—New Year’s resolutions—is deeply engrained in American society: estimates suggest that between 40 and 50% of adults set New Year’s Resolutions. Many of the most common goals relate to weight management—initiating exercise programs, dieting, or both—which is perhaps unsurprising since over 70% of American adults are overweight or obese.

Festigkeitsbeschreibung Des Schwerbetons Auf Alkalischlacken – Bindemittel, A Tulaganov, S Hodjaev, A Sultanov, B Tulaganov, B Otakulov, N Hodjaev, D Abdasov

The Scientific-Practice Journal of Architecture, Construction and Design

The article describes the laws of describing the strength of heavy concrete based on non-calcined alkaline binders. It is shown that strength is written as a function of the generalized argument.

Why Unsafety Has A Negative Relationship With Economic Effectiveness In The World?, Aziz Zikriyoev

The Scientific-Practice Journal of Architecture, Construction and Design

Due to regularly registered diseases and major accidents of workers in the construction industry can be explained expandable building projects and state programs for supporting population. The main purpose of the current paperwork is to explain wining unsafety at workplaces both theoretical and practical points of view generated with economic and social levels.

Let Them Tweet Cake: Estimating Public Dissent Using Twitter, Ben O. Smith, Ethan Spangler

Economics Faculty Publications

This paper establishes a new method of estimating public dissent that is both cost-effective and adaptable. Twitter allows users to post short messages that can be viewed and shared by other users, creating a network of freely and easily observable information. Drawing data directly from Twitter, we collect tweets containing specified words and phrases from citizens voicing dissatisfaction with their government. The collected tweets are processed using a regular expression based algorithm to estimate individual dissent; which is aggregated to an overall measure of public dissent. A comparative case study of Canada and Kenya during the summer of 2016 provides …

Measuring Environmental (Dis)Amenity Value During A Pandemic: Early Evidence From Maryland, Nicholas B. Irwin, Mitchell R. Livy

Molasky Family Department of Economics and Real Estate Faculty Research

© 2021 The Authors With the outbreak of COVID-19 and the implementation of stay-at-home (SAH) orders aimed to mitigate its spread, households became less mobile and sheltered in place. This behavior has potential implications for how households’ value environmental (dis)amenities, especially those that are underutilized during the pandemic. In this paper, we explore changes in the valuation of two prominent environmental (dis)amenities – major roadway and open space proximity – by households within the Baltimore metropolitan region. We find evidence that the housing price capitalization of immediate major roadway proximity changes due to the SAH order and associated policies that …

Financial Reporting Quality And Investment Efficiency: Evidence From Indonesian Stock Market, Iman Harymawan

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This study aims to analyze the impact of financial reporting quality on the investment efficiency of a company. The study uses 994 observations from companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in three periods from 2013Â to 2015. The findings suggest that higher financial reporting quality has a positive and significant relationship with investment efficiency. Furthermore, the tests were conducted on groups of companies experiencing underinvestment and overinvestment. It was found that higher financial reporting quality had a negative and significant relationship with companies experiencing overinvestment. The findings provide implications for investors in assessing investment management carried out by …

Relationships Between Community Resilience And Perceived Community Outcomes, Rebecca J. Vogt

Cornhusker Economics

The definition of resilience is the capacity to recover quickly from difficulties. Synonyms include toughness, perseverance and grit. The severe weather events of the spring of 2019 and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic are likely testing the resilience of rural Nebraskans and their communities. The 2020 Nebraska Rural Poll examined how rural Nebraskans rate their communities on dimensions that measure its resiliency. While it is important to assess how resilient rural Nebraskans believe their communities are, it is also critical to understand how these perceptions correlate to perceived community change, perceived community powerlessness and ease or difficulty of leaving the community.

Connected: Using A Novel In-House Communication System To Efficiently Deliver Imaging Results, Daniel Greentree, Brendan R. Calhoun, Steven Farraher

Journal of Maine Medical Center

Introduction: The primary objective was to investigate the effectiveness of a fully staffed electronic communication system (1Connect) in delivering timely critical imaging results and incidental findings. The secondary objective was to evaluate the financial impact of this system on a radiology practice.

Methods: From January 2014 through June 2016, the 1Connect database was retrospectively reviewed and sorted by category of submission type: Critical (1-hour communication time), STAT (2 hours), or Unexpected finding (3 business days). The percent of successful communications completed within the appropriate time frame was calculated for each priority category and used as a measure of the system’s …