Economics Commons^™

Are Stock Returns And Output Growth Higher Under Democrats?, Ray C. Fair

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Recent literature suggests that both stock returns and economic growth are significantly higher under Democratic presidential administrations. This is a puzzle in that persistent differences in stock returns seem unlikely in efficient markets, and it is not obvious why Democrats should do better. Often these kinds of results go away upon further analysis or more data, and this appears to be true in the present case. In this paper the sample is extended to 27 administrations, from Wilson-1 through Trump. While the mean stock return under the Democrats is generally higher, none of the differences in means are significant at …

Labor Market Monopsony And Wage Inequality: Evidence From Online Labor Market Vacancies, Samuel I. Thorpe

Undergraduate Economic Review

This paper estimates the effects of employer labor market power on wage inequality in the United States. I find that inequality as measured by interdecile range is 23.7% higher in perfectly monopsonistic labor markets than in perfectly competitive markets, even when controlling for commuting zone and occupation fixed effects. I also decompose these results into 50/10 and 90/50 ratios, finding much larger impacts on inequality among low earners. These results suggest that monopsony power has significant and policy-relevant impacts on wage inequality, and particularly harms the lowest earning subsets of the labor force.

Survival Pessimism And The Demand For Annuities, Cormac O'Dea, David Sturrock

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The “annuity puzzle” refers to the fact that annuities are rarely purchased despite the longevity insurance they provide. Most explanations for this puzzle assume that individuals have accurate expectations about their future survival. We provide evidence that individuals misperceive their mortality risk, and study the demand for annuities in a setting where annuities are priced by insurers on the basis of objectively-measured survival probabilities but in which individuals make purchasing decisions based on their own subjective survival probabilities. Subjective expectations have the capacity to explain significant rates of non-annuitization, yielding a quantitatively important explanation for the annuity puzzle.

Cost Countries Pay For High Homicide Rates, Brittany Lowe

Grawemeyer Colloquium Papers

This research finds the economic cost, in terms of GDP per capita, to countries for increased violence using typical econometric models, and then makes recommendations to decision makers about funding allocation of violence prevention programs based off its findings.

The Economic Impact Of Natural Gas Unitization In West Virginia, Eric Bowen

Bureau of Business & Economic Research

In this study, we examine the potential economic impact of instituting a unitization law in West Virginia. The economic impact of natural gas unitization will depend largely on the increase in drilling and production that will come as a result of resource unitization. We define two scenarios whereby drilling activity in West Virginia is assumed to increase by either 5 percent or 10 percent above current levels. We then estimate the additional economic activity from three major sources: well construction, spending due to ongoing production, and royalties paid to rights-holders within the state.

Is Habit A Powerful Policy Instrument To Induce Prosocial Behavioral Change?, Johann Caro-Burnett, Judith A. Chevalier, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Recent literature suggests the power of interventions to change habits. In a dense slum in Nairobi, we adopt best practices from the habit literature to encourage toilet use instead of alternatives that damage community health. Offering subsidies increased toilet usage, effects continue for one month after discounts end, but erode thereafter. Treatments designed to induce habit formation (marketing, time-limited discounts encouraging repetition, discounts for longer periods, targeting `habitual types’) generated no greater persistence. We see some persistent behavior change due to learning about the new toilet option. It appears difficult to induce pro-social behavior without private benefits through habit change.

Strategically Making Your Farm Or Ranch Profitable, Matthew Stockton

Cornhusker Economics

The word ‘strategically’ sounds sophisticated and is often used to imply the presence of some secret idea that will always work to increase profit. The word seems to suggest that to be strategic requires special knowledge or an almost magical method of accomplishing something. In truth, however, strategy is simply a plan of action or policy designed to achieve something desired, and it can be complex or basic, as each occasion requires. Strategy can be good or bad, a successful endeavor or a disaster. The key to good strategy is to have clear understanding of desired out-come, as well as …

Information Perception And Climate Change Adaptation, Ji Won Sung

Undergraduate Economic Review

Despite 97% of scientists believing that climate change is occurring, a far smaller proportion of ordinary citizens agree with this statement and the proportion of those who do greatly diverge by political affiliation. This paper lays out a dynamic information updating model with adaptation choice as the final outcome, linking information perception, belief perception, and behavioral implementation. Furthermore, this paper examines how various behavioral and environmental factors affect the agent’s adaptation choices by means of such cognitive processes. This research has implications for further research on climate change preference formation and effective communication strategies, such as informative or normative nudges.

An Economic Impact Study Prepared For Michigan State University, Christian Glupker, Paul Isely, Grand Valley State University

Other Faculty Publications

Michigan State University’s investment and growth in Grand Rapids brings economic opportunity, scientific innovation, and business synergy to the Medical Mile in downtown Grand Rapids, Michigan.

Launched through the vision of Grand Action more than ten years ago and authorized through the MSU Board of Trustees, the economic impact of the presence of the initial Michigan State University College of Human Medicine is now amplified by subsequent buildings. The MSU presence along the Medical Mile in Grand Rapids expands medical education, scientific research and innovation. It supports pioneering innovators and researchers and strengthens the operations of regional partners including Van …

Very Low Prevalence And Incidence Of Atrial Fibrillation Among Bolivian Forager-Farmers, Christopher J. Rowan, Michael A. Eskander, Edmond Seabright, Daniel Eid Rodriguez, Edhitt Cortez Linares, Raul Quispe Gutierrez, Juan Copajira Adrian, Daniel Cummings, Bret Beheim, Kirsten Tolstrup, Abinash Achrekar, Thomas Kraft, David E. Michalik, Michael I. Miyamoto, Adel H. Allam, L. Samuel Wann, Jagat Narula, Benjamin C. Trumble, Jonathan Stieglitz, Randall C. Thompson, Gregory S. Thomas, Hillard S. Kaplan, Michael D. Gurven

ESI Publications

Background: Atrial fibrillation is the most common arrhythmia in post-industrialized populations. Older age, hypertension, obesity, chronic inflammation, and diabetes are significant atrial fibrillation risk factors, suggesting that modern urban environments may promote atrial fibrillation.

Objective: Here we assess atrial fibrillation prevalence and incidence among tropical horticulturalists of the Bolivian Amazon with high levels of physical activity, a lean diet, and minimal coronary atherosclerosis, but also high infectious disease burden and associated inflammation.

Methods: Between 2005–2019, 1314 Tsimane aged 40–94 years (52% female) and 534 Moseten Amerindians aged 40–89 years (50% female) underwent resting 12-lead electrocardiograms to assess atrial fibrillation prevalence. …

Welfare Comparisons For Biased Learning, Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yuhta Ishii

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We study robust welfare comparisons of learning biases, i.e., deviations from correct Bayesian updating. Given a true signal distribution, we deem one bias more harmful than another if it yields lower objective expected payoffs in all decision problems. We characterize this ranking in static (one signal) and dynamic (many signals) settings. While the static characterization compares posteriors signal-by-signal, the dynamic characterization employs an “efficiency index” quantifying the speed of belief convergence. Our results yield welfare-founded quantifications of the severity of well-documented biases. Moreover, the static and dynamic rankings can conflict, and “smaller” biases can be worse in dynamic settings.

Welfare Comparisons For Biased Learning, Mira Frick, Ryota Iijima, Yuhta Ishii

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We study robust welfare comparisons of learning biases, i.e., deviations from correct Bayesian updating. Given a true signal distribution, we deem one bias more harmful than another if it yields lower objective expected payoffs in all decision problems. We characterize this ranking in static (one signal) and dynamic (many signals) settings. While the static characterization compares posteriors signal-by-signal, the dynamic characterization employs an “efficiency index” quantifying the speed of belief convergence. Our results yield welfare-founded quantifications of the severity of well-documented biases. Moreover, the static and dynamic rankings can disagree, and “smaller” biases can be worse in dynamic settings.

Financial Contagion During Stock Market Bubbles, Diego Escobari, Shahil Sharma

Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

We investigate the role of bubbles on financial contagion using a set of developed economies. First, using the recursive flexible window right-tailed ADF-based procedure, we date stamp bubble periods in stock index series. Second, we capture contagion with a DCC multivariate GARCH framework. In a third step, we construct a panel by pooling across the time-series dynamic conditional correlations and bubbles to estimate various dynamic panel specifications that consider the endogenous nature of bubbles. We find statistically significant decreases in the dynamic correlations during periods of bubbles, which shows that the financial contagion between pair of countries diminishes when any …

Child Care Costs In The Mountain West, Saha Salahi, Kristian Thymianos, William E. Brown Jr., Caitlin J. Saladino

Economic Development & Workforce

This fact sheet examines the cost of child care using data from the Care Index, a collaboration between New America, Care.com, and other organizations. Data for the Mountain West states of Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah are included in this document.

Covid-19'S Impacts On The Labor Market In 2020, Brad J. Hershbein, Harry J. Holzer

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

Negative Shocks Predict Change In Cognitive Function And Preferences: Assessing The Negative Affect And Stress Hypothesis, Francesco Bogliacino, Cristiano Codagnone, Felipe Montealegre, Frans Folkvord, Camilo Gómez, Rafael Charris, Giovanni Liva, Francisco Lupiáñez-Villanueva, Giuseppe A. Veltri

ESI Publications

In the context of the current COVID-19 pandemic, households throughout the world have to cope with negative shocks. Previous research has shown that negative shocks impair cognitive function and change risk, time and social preferences. In this study, we analyze the results of a longitudinal multi-country survey conducted in Italy (N = 1652), Spain (N = 1660) and the United Kingdom (N = 1578). We measure cognitive function using the Cognitive Reflection Test and preferences traits (risk, time and social preferences) using an experimentally validated set of questions to assess the differences between people exposed to a shock compared to …

The Covid-19 Pandemic's Evolving Impacts On The Labor Market: Who's Been Hurt And What We Should Do, Brad J. Hershbein, Harry J. Holzer

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

In this paper, we shed light on the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the labor market, and how they have evolved over most of the year 2020. Relying primarily on microdata from the CPS and state-level data on virus caseloads, mortality, and policy restrictions, we consider a range of employment outcomes—including permanent layoffs, which generate large and lasting costs—and how these outcomes vary across demographic groups, occupations, and industries over time. We also examine how these employment patterns vary across different states, according to the timing and severity of virus caseloads, deaths, and closure measures. We find that the …

Measuring Heterogeneous Preferences For Residential Amenities, Arthur J. Caplan, Sherzod B. Akhundjanov, Kristopher Toll

Applied Economics Faculty Publications

This study reports on estimates of heterogeneous preferences for residential amenities among households in the Mountain West region of the US. The estimates are derived from a choice experiment funded by the Utah Department of Transportation and Utah Transit Authority—an experiment based upon large samples of both homeowners and renters who participated in a larger, statewide transportation study. The choice experiment and transportation study allow us to control for a rich set of household-level demographic and lifestyle characteristics, which in turn permits identification of a host of factors contributing to heterogeneity in residential preferences. We leverage a percentage-change housing cost …

The Impact Of Covid-19 On The Standard & Poor 500 Index Sectors: A Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity Model, Maha Elhini, Rasha Hammam

Economics

Purpose – This paper aims to examine the impact of the daily growth rate of COVID-19 cases in the USA (COVID), the Federal Fund Rate (FFR) and the trade-weighted US dollar index (USDX) on S&P500 index daily returns and its 11 constituent sectors’ indices for the time period between January 22, 2020, until June 30, 2020. Design/methodology/approach – The study uses the multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) model to gauge the impacts over the whole period of study, as well as over two sub-periods; first, January 22, 2020, until March 30, 2020, reflecting uncertainty in the US markets and …

Payroll Protection Program Increases Eligibility, Marilyn R. Schlake, Austin Duerfeldt

Cornhusker Economics

As the COVID-19 pandemic continues to impact business-es across the country, the Small Business Administration (SBA) has issued new guidelines for the Payroll Protection Program (PPP) in 2021. These guidelines increase the eligibility rules for self-employed, sole proprietors and 1099 workers, including agricultural producers, that allow them to apply and access the PPP Loan funds.

Credit Limit Of Unsecured Consumer Lending: Evidence From Micro Data, Suwinto Johan, Calista Endrina Dewi

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

As credit card debts have increased in Indonesia over the past ten years, concerns over the impulsive buying behavior of Indonesian credit card holders have emerged. Therefore, more attention must be paid to credit risk management of banks as it plays an important role in analyzing the possibility of losses due to the inability of prospective borrowers to repay debts. This study provides empirical evidence about the prudence of commercial banks in Greater Jakarta in offering credit card limits. Using primary micro-data collected from credit card applications submitted to the largest foreign private bank providing retail credit in the Greater …

Indonesian Provinces Sdgs Composite Index: Lampung Province Analysis, Reny Andriati, Mohamad Fahmi

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Publications of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) have mainly been conducted at a national level and separately for each goal. No prior research has been done on SDGs composite index at a provincial level in Indonesia. It is necessary to create a composite index that presents a single value at the provincial level to enable regional evaluation. The Indonesia Province SDGs composite index is developed from indicators based on Statistics Indonesia gathered from several publications. The data sources are the National Socio-Economic Survey (Susenas) and the Basic Health Research (Riskesdas) which were linked surveys held in 2018. Principal Component Analysis and …

Enslaved Financing Of Southern Industry: The Nesbitt Manufacturing Company Of South Carolina, 1836–1850, Sharon Ann Murphy

Economics Faculty Publications

Incorporated on the eve of the Panic of 1837, the Nesbitt Manufacturing Company of South Carolina owned and hired enslaved individuals to labor in their ironworks, but they also leveraged the market value of this enslaved property by exchanging them for shares of company stock and offering them as collateral in loan contracts. These slaveholders actively experimented with increasingly sophisticated financial tools and institutions in order to facilitate investment, market exchange, and profit maximization within the system of enslavement. Although historians have examined the role of enslaved labor in industrial concerns, they have largely ignored their role in the financing …

Job Creation Policies Can Raise Local Employment Rates, Especially For Distressed Communities, Timothy J. Bartik

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

Income In The Off-Season: Household Adaptation To Yearly Work Interruptions, John Coglianese, Brendan M. Price

Employment Research Newsletter

No abstract provided.

Gender Differences In Ncaa Non-Revenue Sports: An Examination Of Men’S And Women’S Soccer Coaching Salaries, David Eaton, Martin Milkman

Faculty & Staff Research and Creative Activity

This paper examines the determinants of head coaching salaries in men’s and women’s collegiate soccer. Both of these sports are considered non-revenue sports, and thus differences in sports revenues should not impact coaching salaries. We analyze salaries of head coaches in these sports to determine if i) coaches in women’s soccer earn systematically less than coaches of men’s soccer, and ii) whether there is a difference in salaries between male and female coaches of women’s soccer. We find that salaries for coaches of women’s soccer are lower than those for men’s soccer. We also find that there is no statistically …

Nebraska Land Link, Jessica Groskopf, Allan Vyhnalek

Cornhusker Economics

Nebraska Extension is pleased to announce that the Nebraska Land Link is open for applications. Nebraska Land Link connects new or beginning farmers and ranchers seeking land with landowners who wish to lease, sell or gift their land to a new or beginning farmer or rancher. The web-based enrollment and information for the program can be found at https://farm.unl.edu/landlink

The Feasibility Of Renewable Natural Gas In New Jersey, Anneliese Dyer, Amelia Christine Miller, Brianna Chandra, Juan Galindo Maza, Carley Tran, Justin Bates, Vicky Olivier, Amy Tuininga

PSEG Institute for Sustainability Studies Publications

With traditional natural gas being one of the top options for heating in the United States and the present threat of climate change, there is a demand for an alternative clean fuel source. A Renewable Natural Gas Implementation Decision-Making Conceptual Model was created to provide a framework for considering the feasibility of renewable natural gas (RNG) projects and applied to New Jersey, specifically investigating landfills and wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). Data from the US EPA’s Landfill Methane Outreach Program and New Jersey’s Department of Environmental Protection Sewage Sludge databases were used to identify seven landfills and 22 WWTPs as possible …

Examining Future Expansion Opportunities At The Morgantown Industrial Park, Brian Lego, Christiadi

Bureau of Business & Economic Research

The Morgantown Industrial Park (MIP) encompasses a wide area between the Monongahela River and Interstate-79, and currently houses approximately 20 companies. A new interchange on Interstate 79 at River Road (approximately mile marker 151) is expected to improve access to the industrial park in a substantial manner, allowing expanded access into the MIP and creating the opportunity to house a variety of new businesses from several sectors. In this study, we provide a brief look at the North Central West Virginia region’s economic and demographic characteristics as a means of assessing the area’s viability and attractiveness to potential businesses. Measures …

Skbi Big 5 Survey 2021 February, Singapore Management University

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

The latest survey results suggest that the five largest economies collectively is projected to snapback to almost 6% in 2021, a modest upgrade from the August median, following an unprecedented preliminary contraction of roughly 4% last year (in real GDP terms). The 2022 median growth forecast of slightly above 4.5%, while slower, is still respectable, outstripping its pre-COVID 10-year average pace by more than half a percentage point. The aggregate upgrade in 2021, however, obscures the lopsided nature and highly uneven contour of the ongoing recovery. The bulk of the upward revision to growth was mainly due to IN (to …