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Full-Text Articles in Economics

Agency Mbs As Safe Assets, Zhiguo He, Zhaogang Song Feb 2026

Agency Mbs As Safe Assets, Zhiguo He, Zhaogang Song

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

Measured as yield spreads against Treasury securities and AAA corporate bonds, the convenience premium of newly issued agency MBS averages more than half of the long-term Treasury convenience premium. The agency MBS convenience premium and issuance amount vary negatively with mortgage rate, consistent with a prepayment-driven channel. Placing agencies into conservatorship in 2008 and introducing liquidity regulations in 2013 significantly affected MBS convenience premium, consistent with government guarantee and regulatory treatment channels. Analyses of dispersion of dealers’ prepayment forecasts, seasoned MBS, and investors’ MBS holdings deliver further economic implications for agency MBS as safe assets.

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Existence Of Equilibrium Mechanisms In Generalized Principal-Agent Problems With Interacting Teams, Brian Roberson Feb 2026

Existence Of Equilibrium Mechanisms In Generalized Principal-Agent Problems With Interacting Teams, Brian Roberson

ESI Working Papers

We study incentive design when multiple principals simultaneously design mechanisms for their respective teams in environments with strategic spillovers. In this environment, each principal’s set of incentive-compatible mechanisms—those that satisfy their own agents’ incentive compatibility constraints— depends on the mechanisms offered by the other teams. Following a classic example by Myerson (1982), such games may lack equilibrium due to discontinuities in the correspondence of incentive-compatible mechanisms. We establish general conditions for equilibrium existence by introducing a novel approach that involves tracking both the outcome distributions along the truthful-obedient path and the sets of outcome distributions achievable through unilateral deviations, thereby …

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Authoritarianism And Conspiracism Around The World, Valerie Capraro, Folca Panizza, Joseph A. Vitriol, Mikey Biddlestone, Andrè Krouwel, Yordan Kutiyski, Alberto López Ortega, Ana Ebert, Max Wan, Praveen Kujal, Karen M. Douglas, Christopher M. Federico, Jolanda Jetten, Sander Van Der Linden, Flávio Azevedo Feb 2026

Authoritarianism And Conspiracism Around The World, Valerie Capraro, Folca Panizza, Joseph A. Vitriol, Mikey Biddlestone, Andrè Krouwel, Yordan Kutiyski, Alberto López Ortega, Ana Ebert, Max Wan, Praveen Kujal, Karen M. Douglas, Christopher M. Federico, Jolanda Jetten, Sander Van Der Linden, Flávio Azevedo

ESI Working Papers

Authoritarian leaders frequently deploy conspiracy narratives to justify power concentration and delegitimize opponents, yet the link between authoritarianism and conspiracism remains underresearched. Integrating data across six studies from multiple international surveys (N=63,403; 20 countries), expert-coded party systems (71 countries; 14 datasets), and longitudinal panel studies, we demonstrate that individuals with stronger authoritarian orientations are consistently more prone to conspiracism across diverse cultures, political contexts, and time. These results remain robust when controlling for populist attitudes and multiple political, psychological, and demographic variables. The link between authoritarianism and conspiracism appears to constitute a durable and generalizable psychological relationship. This may help …

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Interest Rate And Inflation Control In Egypt: Evaluating Policy Efficiency (1976-2023), Fatma Abouzeid Feb 2026

Interest Rate And Inflation Control In Egypt: Evaluating Policy Efficiency (1976-2023), Fatma Abouzeid

Theses and Dissertations

Inflation has been a persistent problem in Egypt peaking with unprecedented levels throughout the past decades affecting economic stability and living standards in the country. Controlling inflation through interest rate has been a major tool adopted by the monetary authorities in Egypt with no real satisfactory outcome with respect to inflation levels. This links to a theoretical debate in economic literate on the relationship between interest rate and inflation which represents a major controversy in the field. The study examines this controversy in the case of Egypt to reach a conclusion on the actual relationship between these two central economic …

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A General Limit Theory For Nonlinear Functionals Of Nonstationary Time Series, Qiying Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips Feb 2026

A General Limit Theory For Nonlinear Functionals Of Nonstationary Time Series, Qiying Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

New limit theory is provided for a wide class of sample variance and covariance functionals involving both nonstationary and stationary time series. Sample functionals of this type commonly appear in regression applications and the asymptotics are particularly relevant to estimation and inference in nonlinear nonstationary regressions that involve unit root, local unit root, or fractional processes. The limit theory is unusually general in that it covers both parametric and nonparametric regressions. Self-normalized versions of these statistics are considered that are useful in inference. Numerical evidence reveals interesting strong bimodality in the finite sample distributions of conventional self-normalized statistics similar to …

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Efficient Bilateral Trade With Interdependent Values: The Use Of Two-Stage Mechanisms, Takashi Kunimoto, Cuiling Zhang Feb 2026

Efficient Bilateral Trade With Interdependent Values: The Use Of Two-Stage Mechanisms, Takashi Kunimoto, Cuiling Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Efficient, voluntary bilateral trades are generally not implementable in an interdependent values environment with two-sided asymmetric information. To obtain more positive results, we consider two-stage mechanisms in which (i) the outcome (e.g., allocation of the goods) is determined first; (ii) the agents partially learn the state via their own outcome-decision payoffs; and (iii) transfers are finally made. We propose the approximate shoot-the-liar (AS) mechanism and identify Assumption 1, under which “approximately” efficient, voluntary trades are implementable. We further illustrate the permissiveness of the assumption, and characterize it in terms of the nature of interdependence in valuation functions – delineating the …

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Dynamic Spatial Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects: M-Estimation And Inference Under Fixed Or Relatively Small T, Liyao Li, Ke Miao, Zhenlin Yang Feb 2026

Dynamic Spatial Panel Data Models With Interactive Fixed Effects: M-Estimation And Inference Under Fixed Or Relatively Small T, Liyao Li, Ke Miao, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose an M-estimation method for dynamic spatial panel data models with interactive fixed effects based on (relatively) short panels. Unbiased estimating functions are constructed by adjusting the concentrated conditional quasi scores, given the initial values and with the factor loadings being concentrated out, to account for the effects of conditioning and concentration. Solving the estimating equations gives the M-estimators of the common parameters and common factors. Under fixed T, n-consistency and joint asymptotic normality of the M-estimators are established. Under T = o(n), the M-estimators of the common parameters are shown to be nT-consistent and asymptotically normal. For inference, …

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Corrigendum To “Interim Rationalizable Implementation Of Functions” (Kunimoto T, Saran R, Serrano R (2024) Mathematics Of Operations Research 49(3):1791–1824), Takashi Kunimoto, Rene Saran, Roberto Serrano Feb 2026

Corrigendum To “Interim Rationalizable Implementation Of Functions” (Kunimoto T, Saran R, Serrano R (2024) Mathematics Of Operations Research 49(3):1791–1824), Takashi Kunimoto, Rene Saran, Roberto Serrano

Research Collection School Of Economics

This is the brief corrigendum to “Interim rationalizable implementation of functions” [Kunimoto T, Saran R, Serrano R (2024) Interim rationalizable implementation of functions. Math. Oper Res. 49(3):1791–1824].

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The Uncomfortable Truths About Inclusive Growth In Singapore, Kong Weng Ho Feb 2026

The Uncomfortable Truths About Inclusive Growth In Singapore, Kong Weng Ho

Research Collection School Of Economics

In a commentary, SMU Associate Professor of Economics (Education) Ho Kong Weng said that the Ministry of Finance’s Occasional Paper provides food for thought on the way forward on social mobility, growth and redistribution. Assoc Prof Ho stated that these macro statistics suggest Singapore’s socioeconomic compact has performed well, and suggests that sustaining inclusive growth is a multifaceted effort that cannot be boiled down to one single metric, whether income, wealth, inequality or mobility. He noted that pursuing ever-lower Gini coefficients through heavy regulation risks deadweight losses without guaranteeing better mobility outcomes. He added that Singapore’s approach of tempering market-driven …

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Brand Switching Or Behavior Change: The 2023 Bud Light Boycott's Impact On Alcohol Purchases, Aljoscha Janssen Feb 2026

Brand Switching Or Behavior Change: The 2023 Bud Light Boycott's Impact On Alcohol Purchases, Aljoscha Janssen

Research Collection School Of Economics

I study how the 2023 Bud Light boycott affected overall alcohol demand using household-level panel data and a set of difference-in-differences designs. Focusing on households that, before April 2023, regularly purchased Bud Light, I find a large drop in Bud Light volume (34%–37%), partial switching into other beer (＋70 to ＋90 ounces per month), and a net decline in total ethanol purchases of about 3–4 fl-oz per month, or roughly 5.5%–7.5% of pre-boycott intake. I detect no compensatory increase in wine or spirits. Scaled nationally, the quantity response is equivalent to roughly 150 million standard drinks per year; using CDC …

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Are Cities Losing Innovation Advantages? Online Versus Face-To-Face Interactions, Ruben Gaetani, Naqun Huang, Jing Li, Yanmin Yang Feb 2026

Are Cities Losing Innovation Advantages? Online Versus Face-To-Face Interactions, Ruben Gaetani, Naqun Huang, Jing Li, Yanmin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

How did COVID-19 affect the innovation advantages of dense locations? Using data on the universe of U.S. patent applications, we find that the density premium in the production of novel inventions declined by 18.5%-22.9% in 2020-2021 relative to its pre-pandemic level. Smartphone data on local mobility suggest that the drop in the frequency of local interactions can explain a significant portion of this effect. While COVID-19 resulted in a temporary setback in the innovation advantages of dense locations, the role of urban density in facilitating the exchange and recombination of ideas is unlikely to be persistently replaced by online communication.

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Removed: When Taxi Drivers Meet Dynamic Pricing: A Lesson From Singapore's Justgrab Program, Shih-Fen Cheng, Wen-Tai Hsu, Jing Li Feb 2026

Removed: When Taxi Drivers Meet Dynamic Pricing: A Lesson From Singapore's Justgrab Program, Shih-Fen Cheng, Wen-Tai Hsu, Jing Li

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies how dynamic pricing influences taxi drivers’ behaviors using a unique event, the inception of the JustGrab program in Singapore in 2017, which introduces dynamic pricing to some, but not all, taxi drivers. This is the first time in history that traditional taxi drivers have access to dynamic pricing. Using data covering the universe of taxi trips before and after the inception of JustGrab, we find that there is spatial reallocation that directs more taxi drivers to the previously less-served areas, that there is also a temporal reallocation that directs more taxi drivers to rush hours, as well …

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Projecting Inflation Tail Risks In A Small Open Economy: Some Evidence From Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan, Jordan Lee Feb 2026

Projecting Inflation Tail Risks In A Small Open Economy: Some Evidence From Singapore, Hwee Kwan Chow-Tan, Jordan Lee

Research Collection School Of Economics

This study empirically assesses the drivers of risks to the inflation outlook for a small open economy like Singapore. We apply the inflation-at-risk framework of López-Salido and Loria (2020) and incorporate projections from the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) as point forecasts of inflation. Our findings show that macro-financial risk factors—shaped by Singapore’s openness, role as a financial hub, and exchange rate–centered monetary policy framework—enter nonlinearly into inflation risk models and exert differentiated effects. Foreign price pressures heighten upside risks, and exchange rate policy has proven effective at mitigating them. Tighter global financial conditions amplify inflation risks through cost-push channels, …

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New Asymptotics Applied To Functional Coefficient Regression And Climate Sensitivity Analysis, Qiying Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Ying Wang Feb 2026

New Asymptotics Applied To Functional Coefficient Regression And Climate Sensitivity Analysis, Qiying Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Ying Wang

Research Collection School Of Economics

A general asymptotic theory is established for sample cross moments of nonstationary time series, allowing for long-range dependence and local unit roots. The theory provides a substantial extension of earlier results on nonparametric regression that include near-cointegrated nonparametric regression as well as spurious nonparametric regression. Many new models are covered by the limit theory, among which are functional coefficient regressions in which both regressors and the functional covariate are nonstationary. Simulations show finite sample performance matching well with the asymptotic theory and having broad relevance to applications, while revealing how dual nonstationarity in regressors and covariates raises sensitivity to bandwidth …

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Teaching Principles Of Macroeconomics In One Equation Jan 2026

Teaching Principles Of Macroeconomics In One Equation

Journal of Economics and Finance Education

We leverage the quantity theory of money in teaching because it represents well the big picture of macroeconomics and the relationships between key macroeconomic variables, providing a simple intuition and unified framework. To spark interest, we design authentic learning activities that begin with the opening minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) press conference. Then, we illustrate in a simple classroom experiment how quantity theory works and why it relates to the FOMC decisions. To further equip students with macro data interpretation skills, we assign group presentations on economic outlook for non-US countries.

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Ai Teaching Assistants In Higher Education: A Case Study In Pedagogical Integration And Support Jan 2026

Ai Teaching Assistants In Higher Education: A Case Study In Pedagogical Integration And Support

Journal of Economics and Finance Education

This case study examines the implementation of three customized AI teaching assistants in a graduate quantitative methods course for adult learners. Designed to provide timely, course-specific support, the AI tools enhanced student engagement, upheld academic integrity, and aligned with pedagogical principles such as constructivist learning and formative assessment. The assistants were evaluated on the accuracy of their responses and compliance with behavioral requirements. Student feedback indicated improved learning and reduced frustration. This study offers a replicable model for responsibly integrating AI in higher education to support diverse learner needs and promote academic success.

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Understanding The Option Greeks And Option Strategies: An Example Using Apple Earnings Jan 2026

Understanding The Option Greeks And Option Strategies: An Example Using Apple Earnings

Journal of Economics and Finance Education

Students often struggle with understanding option price movements involving the interaction of option “Greeks” and option values. This case study examines the option price movements driven by delta, time decay, and implied volatility following an Apple earnings announcement. The exercise involves students strategically selecting options across multiple strategies and reveals the impact of changes in implied volatility which leads to counterintuitive option price reactions. The goal of the exercise is to bring awareness to the intricacies of option pricing in an empirical setting. We find that comprehension and retention increase significantly when a case study is performed using actual data.

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Student Recognition Of Learning Gains: Evidence From Pre- And Post-Instruction Quizzes Jan 2026

Student Recognition Of Learning Gains: Evidence From Pre- And Post-Instruction Quizzes

Journal of Economics and Finance Education

This study investigates whether students in upper-division economics courses can meaningfully recognize their learning gains over time, independent of instructor-assigned grades. Using a repeated quiz design grounded in authentic assessment, students engaged with real-world economic articles before formal instruction and again after substantial course content had been delivered. Students evaluated their responses from both rounds, while instructors independently assessed the same work. Results show that students not only perceived significant learning gains but also became more accurate in assessing their own performance over time. Additionally, early self-perceptions appear to modestly predict later outcomes, while the largest learning gains occurred among …

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The Abcs Of Modified Bond Duration And Wxyzs Of Bond Convexity Jan 2026

The Abcs Of Modified Bond Duration And Wxyzs Of Bond Convexity

Journal of Economics and Finance Education

By breaking the mathematical derivation of Macaulay Duration, Modified Duration, and Bond Convexity into smaller easily calculated component parts, a more manageable means of calculation for these bond measures emerges for the student. Further, an Excel spreadsheet or an algorithm within a programming language can also be implemented using these smaller component calculations. The Excel template provided can be made into an assignment or used as a resource for the student.

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Introducing The Risk Parity Portfolio Optimization Approach To Students: A Note Jan 2026

Introducing The Risk Parity Portfolio Optimization Approach To Students: A Note

Journal of Economics and Finance Education

Students have been well exposed to Markowitz’s (1952) Mean-Variance Optimization (Modern Portfolio Theory). Nevertheless, its subpar performance during the 2008 global financial crisis exposed it to significant criticism. As a result, a different strategy known as Risk Parity has attracted significant attention. Over the years, Risk Parity methods have gained popularity as investment solutions. As discussed in Fabozzi, Simonian, and Fabozzi (2021), estimates from Neuberger Berman, the total value of assets being managed using Risk Parity strategies is approximately $120 billion. However, with leverage, that number swells considerably, to $400 billion-$500 billion. The popularity of this methodology has spurred the …

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An Empirical Implementation Of A Two-Standard-Deviation Investment Signaling Framework Across Multiple Asset Classes Jan 2026

An Empirical Implementation Of A Two-Standard-Deviation Investment Signaling Framework Across Multiple Asset Classes

Journal of Economics and Finance Education

This paper presents a pedagogically driven application of a quantitative investment signaling model based on two standard deviation bands. Deviations beyond the two standard deviation range are interpreted as potential mean reversion signals, triggering tactical shifts in asset allocation or trading actions. Students construct the models in Excel using live market data, overlaying asset returns against calculated deviation bands to inform decisions. The firsthand approach emphasizes applied learning and critical thinking, with students analyzing model results and presenting empirical findings. Evidence suggests this experiential method significantly enhances student engagement, comprehension, and retention of investment strategy concepts across diverse financial settings

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Coase, Thaler, And Behavioral Economics: Methodological Considerations Jan 2026

Coase, Thaler, And Behavioral Economics: Methodological Considerations

Journal of Economics and Finance Education

In their experiments to measure the endowment effect in market settings, Kahneman, Knetsch, and Thaler (1990; hereafter KKT) assessed the assumption of zero transaction costs associated with the Coase theorem. Their study recruited a sample of advanced undergraduate economics students who were placed in a market setting using coffee mugs as real-world goods, under conditions in which there were zero transaction costs. Their results suggested that an endowment effect lowered trading volume, which should not have occurred if Coase theorem worked in practice. We reexamine the research design employed by KKT, as well as their study’s statistical analysis and results.

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Literature Review: Crowdfunding And Political Fundraising, Saiful Ahmad, Palupi Lindiasari Samputra Jan 2026

Literature Review: Crowdfunding And Political Fundraising, Saiful Ahmad, Palupi Lindiasari Samputra

Journal of Strategic and Global Studies

Crowdfunding is an effort to raise relatively small amounts of money involving many individuals to support a specific project. Typically, crowdfunding is conducted online through fundraising platforms. The aim of this paper is to identify and analyse the utilisation of crowdfunding in fundraising activities that are related to or have political goals carried out by certain organisations or political groups. The method used in this paper is qualitative in the form of narrative analysis carried out through in-depth reading of several scientific literatures that discuss political fundraising through crowdfunding. The sources of scientific literature collection were obtained through the Google …

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Implementation Of Zero Trust Architecture On Local Server Management In Educational Institutions, Joko Purwanto, Safar Dwi Kurniawan Jan 2026

Implementation Of Zero Trust Architecture On Local Server Management In Educational Institutions, Joko Purwanto, Safar Dwi Kurniawan

Journal of Strategic and Global Studies

Educational institutions are facing increasingly complex cyber threats, particularly as they continue to rely on on-premises servers with limited cybersecurity resources. Zero Trust Architecture (ZTA) offers a security model that rejects implicit trust and requires strict verification of each access request. This study aims to examine the applicability of ZTA in managing local servers within educational institutions through a qualitative literature review approach. Relevant literature from 2014 to 2025 was analyzed using thematic synthesis to identify recurring concepts, strategies, and gaps. The results show that ZTA, when integrated with Identity and Access Management (IAM), Security Information and Event Management (SIEM), …

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The Satu Wakaf Indonesia Application Development Strategy, Nurul Huda, Nova Rini, Rahma Aini Nur, Ariel Nian Gani, Muhammad Rofi'i, Nur Syamsudin Buchori Jan 2026

The Satu Wakaf Indonesia Application Development Strategy, Nurul Huda, Nova Rini, Rahma Aini Nur, Ariel Nian Gani, Muhammad Rofi'i, Nur Syamsudin Buchori

Journal of Strategic and Global Studies

The Satu Wakaf Indonesia application is a new platform for digital waqf, which necessitates a strategic policy for its development. The needs of strategic policy stand from the current problems that occur in the implementation of the application. The objectives of this study are: (1) the key sub-elements of the Satu Wakaf Indonesia development strategy, and (2) The Satu Wakaf Indonesia development strategy using the ISM approach. The research method used is a qualitative method with the Interpretive Structural Modelling (ISM) approach. The data source for this study is the results of filling out questionnaires by expert informants. The results …

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Pengaruh Real Mismatch Terhadap Upah Pekerja Di Indonesia, Jawani Eka Pyansahcilia, Dwini Handayani Jan 2026

Pengaruh Real Mismatch Terhadap Upah Pekerja Di Indonesia, Jawani Eka Pyansahcilia, Dwini Handayani

Jurnal Ekonomi Kependudukan dan Keluarga

This study aims to analyze the effect of real mismatch on the wages of workers with medium and higher education levels in Indonesia using the ordinary least squares (OLS) method. The data used in this study are derived from the National Labor Force Survey (Sakernas) conducted in August 2023 to identify instances of mismatch and analyze its impact on workers' wages. In 2023, the incidence of vertical mismatch only was recorded at 14.58 percent, horizontal mismatch only at 31.73 percent, and real mismatch reached 25.24 percent. The estimation results indicate that workers experiencing vertical mismatch only receive a wage premium, …

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Kerentanan Kemiskinan Di Sulawesi Selatan: Analisis Vulnerability As Expected Poverty Dan Klaster Spasial, Nur Hilda Triany Jan 2026

Kerentanan Kemiskinan Di Sulawesi Selatan: Analisis Vulnerability As Expected Poverty Dan Klaster Spasial, Nur Hilda Triany

Jurnal Ekonomi Kependudukan dan Keluarga

This study aims to analyze the determinants of poverty vulnerability in South Sulawesi by integrating spatial dimensions into risk estimation models. Using micro-data from the March 2024 National Socio-Economic Survey (Susenas) with individuals as the unit of analysis, this study applies the Vulnerability as Expected Poverty (VEP) and Local Indicator of Spatial Association (LISA) methods, estimated through an integrated logistic regression model. Empirical results indicate that while the average vulnerability is relatively low, risk distribution is highly concentrated in specific regional clusters. Key findings reveal that health insurance ownership and household assets are the dominant protective factors that drastically reduce …

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Statute Meets Custom: Explaining Provincial Variation In Child Marriage After Indonesia’S 2019 Reform, I Made Yudisthira, Diahhadi Setyonaluri Jan 2026

Statute Meets Custom: Explaining Provincial Variation In Child Marriage After Indonesia’S 2019 Reform, I Made Yudisthira, Diahhadi Setyonaluri

Jurnal Ekonomi Kependudukan dan Keluarga

This study investigates whether Indonesia’s 2019 Marriage Law reform, which raised the minimum legal age of marriage to 19, has been associated with lower child marriage prevalence. Using province-level aggregates from the 2022 Indonesian National Socio-Economic Survey (SUSENAS, N = 1,237,946), we distinguish documented and undocumented unions and estimate Ordinary Least Squares models with controls for poverty, education, assets, rural residence, religious composition, and marriage dispensations. Descriptive maps show prevalence is highest in South Kalimantan (18%), East Java (17%), and West Java (17%), with undocumented unions concentrated in West Nusa Tenggara (7%), Banten (5%), Papua (5%), and West Sulawesi (5%). …

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Bibliometric Analysis Of Research On Women’S Labor Force Participation And Household Economics, Muhamad Dupi, Inayat Ullah Baloch Jan 2026

Bibliometric Analysis Of Research On Women’S Labor Force Participation And Household Economics, Muhamad Dupi, Inayat Ullah Baloch

Jurnal Ekonomi Kependudukan dan Keluarga

Studies of women labor participation (WLFP) and household economics have grown in size in the last two decades and more research and policy focus are given to gender equality, labor markets and household welfare. Nevertheless, the available literature is still in pieces by region, theme, and institutional settings and a complete bibliometric review of this area of study is yet to be done. The objective of the proposed study is to trace the world-wide literature on the topic of women participation in the labor force and household economics through the analysis of the patterns of publications, networks of cooperations, and …

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Estimasi Proporsi Pekerja Anak Pulau Maluku & Papua: Pendekatan Small Area Estimation Hierarchical Bayes Distribusi Beta, Apriani Sofiana, Fauzana Afininnas, Fachrol Mochti, Angga Prayoga, Shafira Husna, Nofita Istiana Jan 2026

Estimasi Proporsi Pekerja Anak Pulau Maluku & Papua: Pendekatan Small Area Estimation Hierarchical Bayes Distribusi Beta, Apriani Sofiana, Fauzana Afininnas, Fachrol Mochti, Angga Prayoga, Shafira Husna, Nofita Istiana

Jurnal Ekonomi Kependudukan dan Keluarga

Pekerja anak merupakan isu krusial yang memerlukan penanganan segera untuk mendukung pencapaian target pembangunan global. Pengentasan isu ini menuntut ketersediaan data yang akurat hingga wilayah kecil guna mendukung perumusan kebijakan yang tepat sasaran. Penelitian ini bertujuan menduga proporsi pekerja anak usia 5–17 tahun di kabupaten/kota Pulau Maluku dan Papua tahun 2024 menggunakan metode Small Area Estimation (SAE) Hierarchical Bayes (HB) distribusi Beta. Lima variabel penyerta dari PODES dan regsosek dipilih melalui stepwise regression dan dieksplorasi secara spasial. Hasil pemodelan HB Beta Pulau Maluku dan Papua menunjukkan sebagian besar wilayah masih memiliki RSE tinggi. Untuk meningkatkan presisi, dilakukan klasterisasi wilayah sebelum …

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