Economics Commons^™

Search Costs, Intermediation, And Trade: Experimental Evidence From Ugandan Agricultural Markets, Lauren Falcao Bergquist, Craig Mcintosh, Meredith Startz

Discussion Papers

We study the large-scale experimental rollout of a platform that reduced search and matching frictions in Ugandan agricultural markets by connecting buyers and sellers. Market integration improved substantially: trade increased and price gaps fell. Interpreting the experiment through a trade model, we estimate treatment effects accounting for equilibrium changes that impact control markets. The intervention reduced fixed trade costs by 20% and increased trade flows between treated markets by 7% and across all markets by 1%. Scale economies shaped engagement:few farmers used the platform, but equilibrium price convergence from improved arbitrage by larger traders passed through to farm revenue.

The Impact Of Legalized Sports Betting On Divorce, Alvaro Muniz-Fernandez, Brad Humphreys, Jane E. Ruseski

Economics Faculty Working Papers Series

This paper estimates the causal effect of legalization of sports betting on marital dissolution. We exploit the staggered legalization of sports betting in states following the Murphy v. NCAA (2018) Supreme Court as a source of exogenous variation, using a U.S. state-year panel from 2012 to 2023. Implementing a difference-in-differences design, we find that legalization increases both the flow and stock of divorces: the annual divorce rate and the share of divorced men rise by 0.107 and 0.276 percentage points, respectively. These effects accumulate gradually over the post-treatment period, consistent with a mechanism operating through the slow deterioration of household …

Wage Gap Disclosure In The Tropics, Pablo Castro, Mayara Felix, Ieda Matavelli, Bobak Pakzad-Hurson

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We evaluate the effects of mandatory disclosures of firm-specific gender wage gaps in Brazil—the first developing country to enact a large-scale pay transparency law. The mandate took effect in 2023, automatically releasing to the public government-curated reports showing firm-specific gender wage gaps, separately by major occupational groups, for formal sector firms with 100 employees or more. Regression discontinuity estimates on outcomes one year after the release show that the mandated disclosures had no effects on the gender wage ratio, average wages for men or women, or the number of occupations within firms. We document that gender wage gaps persist in …

How Wasteful Is Signaling?, Alex Frankel, Navin Kartik

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Signaling is wasteful. But how wasteful? We study the fraction of surplus dissipated in a separating equilibrium. For isoelastic environments, this waste ratio has a simple formula: β/(β + σ), where β is the benefit elasticity (reward to higher perception) and σ is the elasticity of higher types’ relative cost advantage. The ratio is constant across types and is independent of other parameters, including convexity of cost in the signal. We show that the directional effects of β and σ on waste extend to non-isoelastic environments.

From Conversations To Mechanisms: Aligning Advertiser Incentives In Ai-Powered Product Recommendations, Dirk Bergemann, Marek Bojko, Paul Dütting, Renato Paes Leme, Haifeng Xu, Song Zuo

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We study the design of efficient dynamic recommendation systems, such as AI shopping assistants, in which a platform interacts with a user over multiple rounds to identify the most suitable product among those offered by advertisers. Advertisers have multi-dimensional private information: their private value from a purchase and private information about the user’s preferences. In each round, the platform displays recommendations; the user learns product characteristics of the shown items and then chooses whether to purchase, exit without purchasing, or submit a new query. These actions generate a stream of feedback—purchase, exit, and follow-up queries—that is informative about the user’s …

Cross-Border Product Adoption: Individual Imports, Migrant Networks, And Domestic Retailers, David Argente, Esteban Méndez, Diana Van Patten

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper studies how new varieties enter markets and become locally available. We provide causal evidence of demand externalities that operate in two steps. First, information about new varieties diffuses directly through real-world social ties among consumers. Second, early purchases generate an indirect spillover to firms: local retailers learn from 'pioneer' consumers which new varieties are most likely to succeed and adjust their product offerings accordingly. We study this process in the context of direct-to-consumer imports. Using customs records on individuals' purchases matched to population-wide social networks, international migrant links, and retailer catchment areas, we document economically meaningful demand externalities. …

Financial Literacy And Fraud Vulnerability In Digital Finance: Evidence From The 2024 Nfcs, Mercedes Palacios Diaz

Posters - 2026

Digital finance has expanded rapidly through fintech platforms and cryptocurrency markets, increasing access to financial services while also exposing individuals to higher levels of financial fraud. Most research treats fraud vulnerability as a single outcome, without distinguishing between financial loss and the ability to recognize scams. This study examines how financial literacy shapes fraud vulnerability through its effects on fraud victimization and scam awareness, highlighting its dual role in reducing financial losses and improving scam recognition. Fraud vulnerability is therefore analyzed across two distinct dimensions: realized financial loss and scam awareness.

Essays On Family Economics, Culture, Inequality, And Growth, Rouzhi Liang

Economics Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation consists of essays on how family resource allocation and cultural values shape innovation, inequality, and long-run economic development. Across the chapters, I combine quantitative modeling and empirical analysis to understand the determinants of inequality and long-run growth.

Chapter 1 studies how parental fertility and bequest decisions affect children’s potential to become entrepreneurs when financial barriers exist. Motivated by evidence that high-income parents tend to have fewer children and leave larger bequests and allocate more resources per child, I develop an overlapping-generations model with endogenous fertility, bequests, and occupational choice, calibrated to U.S. data. The model shows that, when …

Essays Of Culture Economics: The Economic Consequences Of Cultural Change, Javier Gonzalez

Economics Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation contributes to the field of Cultural Economics by exploring the relationship between cultural transmission and economic outcomes. Across three distinct essays, this research investigates how mass media narratives shape economic preferences and labor decisions, and conversely, how economic fundamentals drive the evolution of cultural markers like language.   The first two chapters focus on the cultural and economic impact of television in Latin America, utilizing a novel dataset of telenovelas aired between 1960 and 2024. Chapter 1 extends the analysis of media influence to labor economics, studying the effect of televised female empowerment on female labor market outcomes. By …

Wildfires, Smoke Pollution, And Household Purchasing Behaviors, Tamara Sheldon, Crystal Zhan

Faculty Publications

In this paper, we investigate households’ behavioral responses to wildfires in California to understand their mitigation and adaptation strategies. We combine daily household-level consumer purchase data from the NielsenIQ Consumer Panel with detailed wildfire incident and smoke exposure data from various sources. Our analysis reveals that wildfires reduce retail trips and overall spending, both in-store and online, likely due to evacuations. However, wildfire-driven smoke increases purchases of essential goods, indicating adaptive behavior. More experienced households tend to respond more cautiously, and we observe heterogeneity in responses based on income, age, and pre-existing health conditions. These findings highlight the complexity and …

A Labor Market Unleashed: College Football Labor Substitution In The Transfer Portal Era, Adrian M. Simion, Jeremy M. Losak, Catalina Bush

Sport Management - All Scholarship

College football's labor market has been transformed by litigation-driven regulatory change eliminating long-standing mobility restrictions. Central to this transformation is a new roster construction dilemma — whether to acquire experienced collegiate talent through the transfer portal or invest in traditional high school recruiting. Using a fixed effects panel of 127 Football Bowl Subdivision programs across six recruiting cycles (2019–2024), we examine whether schools substitute transfers for high school recruits. Three findings emerge. First, portal activity is associated with reduced three-star recruiting but no relationship with four-star or five-star prospects, with substitution driven by quantity rather than quality. Second, substitution is …

Hitler Must Be Killed: A Wwii Case Study, Jeffrey Byford, Presley Shilling, Alisha Milam

The Councilor: A National Journal of the Social Studies

Social studies education during the 1960s experienced an educational renaissance known as the new social studies movement. Over 50 projects were funded by the National Science Foundation or private corporations to interject a student-centered curriculum into K-12 classrooms during this period. Nearly 60 years later, can student-centered decision-making activities be used in an era of high-stakes testing and planned curriculum? This article attempts to rekindle students' interest in decision-making and discussion by exploring elements in Moral Reasoning: The Value of Life from the Harvard Social Studies Project (HSSP). The activity called "Hitler Must Be Killed" helped students bring the content …

From Ruins To Rival: How The Japanese Economic Miracle Forged A Global Power, Elizabeth Rips

The Dialogue

The Japanese Economic Miracle (1950-1975) represents one of the most sustained periods of rapid economic growth in modern history. This paper examines the extent to which political policies contributed to Japan’s transformation into a leading global industrial power during the postwar era. While some historians emphasize the decisive role of U.S. occupation reforms and American economic support, this paper argues that Japan’s rise resulted from the interaction of multiple factors. Focusing on political institutions such as the Yoshida Doctrine, the dissolution of zaibatsu’s, and the Ministry of International Trade and Industry (MITI), the paper analyzes how state-led industrial policy fostered …

A National Security Strategy For The Middle East, Vanessa Rice, Rudy Torres, Addy Horgan, Joy Omosa, Mark Westfall

School of Public Policy Capstones

This National Security Strategy addresses the persistent national security challenges the United States faces in the Middle East, a region vital for global energy supply, economic connectivity, and a source of anti-American extremism. Recognizing the failures of past "haphazard experimentation," the strategy proposes a thoughtful, pragmatic plan prioritizing five distinct and congruent interest areas: Maintaining Regional Access, Supporting Regional Stability, Ensuring Energy Security, Defending American Citizens and Personnel, and Preserving and Protecting Western Ideals. The strategy outlines actions such as: countering Chinese and Russian influence through intelligence sharing and defense incentives; containing Iran via a new, permanent nuclear deal and …

From Index To Impact: How Vietnam’S Provincial Competitiveness Index Shapes Governance, Investment And Reform, Edmund J. Malesky

Asian Management Insights

Why business leaders should watch Vietnam’s subnational reform experiment closely.

What Does It Take To Make Housing Affordable?, Sock Yong Phang

Asian Management Insights

Professor Phang Sock Yong’s body of work has shaped conversations around housing affordability both in Singapore and abroad—helping policymakers manage land, supply, finance and market rules as one integrated system.

Social Media Microtrends And The Economic Realities Of Young Consumers, Camila Berumen

Posters - 2026

This study expects to reveal how social media microtrends act as indicators of the economic realities' young consumers experience, including financial pressure, shifting spending habits, and changing values around consumption. By analyzing how these realities are expressed through digital trends, the research will provide a deeper understanding of how economic conditions are communicated in everyday online behavior. This research addresses the issue that traditional economic measures often overlook lived experience, especially among younger generations. By focusing on microtrends, the study offers a more nuanced and accessible way to understand how economic realities are felt and expressed, rather than just measured. …

From Ideas To Impact: Evaluating How Financial Technology Expands Financial Inclusion Across Countries, Shravani Atakari

Posters - 2026

Financial inclusion refers to access and use of financial services (World Bank, 2022). Traditional finance excludes users due to:

• High costs • Geographic distance • Limited credit History . Fintech expands access through digital tools Purpose: Analyze how fintech improves inclusion and what drives adoption

Research Questions How does financial technology reduce barriers to financial inclusion, and what factors influence its adoption among underserved populations? Objectives Identify key barriers to financial inclusion Analyze how fintech reduces these barriers Examine adoption factors (TAM + UTAUT) Propose solutions to improve adoption

Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast Volume 29, Number 1, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

An Austrian Approach To Accounting Regulation: How Policy Intervention Distorts The Market For Assurance Services, Kyan Howe

Student Scholarship

This thesis applies the causal-realist method of the Austrian School of Economics to the market for assurance services in the United States. The central argument is that post-crisis accounting regulation has systematically distorted the incentive structures of independent public accounting firms in ways regulators do not predict and cannot fully control. Financial crises, properly understood through Austrian Business Cycle Theory, originate in monetary distortions rather than market failure. Post-crisis regulatory responses nonetheless target the profession rather than the underlying distortion, introducing rules that alter the institutional constraints within which auditors exercise professional judgment.

The thesis develops a judgment-based equation of …

Delenda Est Norfolk: The Tidewater Revolts!, Kiera Dillman, Alise Dunham, Kristen Gary, Olivia M. Haris, Nelliel A. Herrera, Logan Holzgrefe, R. J. Lynch, Adam M. Manis, David Mogan, Luke Pickard, Shayla M. Shaw, Landon Swain, Kenny Wilcox, Bailey M. Wimberly, Tracy L. Barnett

Student Projects

Introduction to the Exhibit:

Today—exactly 250 years after the signing of the Declaration of Independence—many Americans trace the origins of the nation’s revolutionary sentiment to Boston, Massachusetts or Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. We remember the violence of March 1770, when red-coated British soldiers fired into a crowded Boston street, massacring innocent colonists and igniting outrage. We recall the patriotic defiance of the Sons of Liberty, who boarded three East India Company ships and dumped chests of imported British tea into the Boston Harbor in December 1773. We can still hear, too, the reverberations of the “shot heard ’round the world,” when British …

Mica Productions: The Sad Truth Behind Cosmetic Corporations' Impact On Children's Well-Being In India, Nyleen Benavides

Posters - 2026

Mica is a shiny silicate mineral found in granite, crystals, or rocks. This mineral has attracted the eyes of many cosmetic corporations. Due to high rates of unemployment and poverty in Asian countries, particularly in India’s Jharkhand region, corporations have taken over to profit the exportations of mica. India relies on illegal child labor in mica mining sites that are not only hazardous to children, but the economy and ecosystem. Previous research has shown how cosmetic corporations use mica as one of their main ingredients for shiny pigmentations within their products. However, there is limited research that has indicated the …

Macroprudential Easing Measures In The Context Of Contractionary Monetary Policy: The Case Of Brazil In 2014, Marcos Antonio Paliari, Marcos Roberto Vasconcelos

Journal of Banking and Financial Economics

This paper evaluates the effects of a macroprudential policy of regulatory easing implemented amidst a contractionary monetary policy in Brazil. The intervention, carried out by the Central Bank in the third quarter of 2014, relaxed reserve requirements on time deposits to stimulate bank credit for vehicle financing. Using a Difference-in-Differences approach with fixed effects by credit modality and month, the analysis is based on monthly disbursement data for consumer loans from 2011 to 2018. Twelve rolling monthly windows are used to capture the dynamic evolution of the policy’s effects. Results based on a synthetic control group indicate statistically significant and …

Pay-Per-Crawl Pricing For Ai: The Lm-Tree Agent, Richard Archer, Soheil Ghili, Nima Haghpanah

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

No abstract provided.

Growth With New And Old Technologies, Bernardo Ribeiro

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper proposes a semi-endogenous growth theory that incorporates technology vintages and the endogenous evolution of multiple technological paradigms through innovation. It provides a characterization of both balanced growth equilibrium and transitional dynamics in an environment where new technologies continuously emerge. From a positive perspective, the model rationalizes two distinct empirical patterns. Using two centuries of US patent data, I first document that the age profile of patents has a pronounced hump shape: most contemporary patents build upon technologies that are between 50 and 100 years old. Second, this age profile has remained stable throughout the past century. From a …

Soft-Floor Auctions: Harnessing Regret To Improve Efficiency And Revenue, Dirk Bergemann, Kevin Breuer, Peter Crampton, Jack Hirsch, Yero S. Ndiaye, Axel Ockenfels

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

A soft-floor auction asks bidders to accept an opening price to participate in a second-price auction. If no bidder accepts, lower bids are considered using first-price rules. Soft floors are common despite being irrelevant with standard assumptions. When bidders regret losing, soft-floor auctions are more efficient and profitable than standard optimal auctions. Revenue increases as bidders are inclined to accept the opening price to compete in a regret-free second-price auction. Efficiency improves because a soft floor allows for a lower hard reserve, reducing the frequency of no sale. Theory and experiment confirm these motivations from practice.

Early Childcare Attendance And Cognitive Skills In Adolescence, Ingvild Almas, Nina Drange, Costas Meghir, Henrik Daae Zachrisson

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper examines the impact of early childcare on academic achievement for children in grade 5 and grade 9, based on a 2003 policy expansion that created quasi-random variation in slot availability for children aged 1–2. Starting childcare one year earlier increases math scores by 9.7% of a standard deviation (SD) in grade 9. Children whose mothers do not hold a high school diploma benefit by a significant 0.28% of a SD at grade 9, reducing the math achievement gap from children of higher-educated mothers by about one third. We also present evidence of strong improvements for children of immigrants.

Capital Flows And The Global Collateral Cycle, Ana Fostel, John Geanakoplos, Gregory Phelan

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Cross-country disparities in collateral technologies alone can account for large capital flows among mature economies, and allow the most advanced country to run a permanent trade deficit. When the collateral technology advantage is in creating negative beta (super safe) financial assets backed by positive beta assets, a Global Collateral Cycle emerges, with pro-cyclical gross and net flows and increased global asset price volatility. The supply of super safe assets is necessarily curtailed in downturns, providing a complementary (supply) channel to the flight to safety (demand) channel for explaining why US safe asset prices rise during crises.

Organizational Targets In General Equilibrium, Joel P. Flynn, George Nikolakoudis, Karthik Sastry

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We build a general equilibrium model in which firms endogenously choose whether to target prices or quantities. We characterize how these choices of organizational targets depend on firms' uncertainty about microeconomic and macroeconomic factors. In equilibrium, the transmission of both nominal and real shocks hinges on firms' organizational targets. For example, under otherwise identical microfoundations, money is neutral under quantity targets and non-neutral under price targets. We further characterize how targets shape firms' strategic interactions and prove that the macroeconomic uncertainty that arises from each choice of targets reinforces incentives to choose that target. That is, choices of organizational targets …

Training Language Models For Bilateral Trade With Private Information, Dirk Bergemann, Soheil Ghili, Xinyang Hu, Chuanhao Li, Zhuoran Yang

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Bilateral bargaining under incomplete information provides a controlled testbed for evaluating large language model (LLM) agent capabilities. Bilateral trade demands individual rationality, strategic surplus maximization, and cooperation to realize gains from trade. We develop a structured bargaining environment in which LLMs negotiate via tool calls within an event-driven simulator, separating binding offers from natural-language messages to enable automated evaluation. The environment serves two purposes: as a benchmark for frontier models and as a training environment for open-weight models via reinforcement learning. In benchmark experiments, a round-robin tournament among five frontier models (15,000 negotiations) reveals that effective strategies implement price discrimination …