Economics Commons^™

Supermajority Politics: Equilibrium Range, Policy Diversity, Utilitarian Welfare, And Political Compromise, Aseem Mahajan, Roland Pongou, Jean-Baptiste Tondji

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

Highlights

• We study static and dynamic supermajoritarian economies with totally ordered policy spaces.

• We count equilibria in the core and the largest consistent set under single-peaked preferences.

• We assess the depth of policy diversity across similar supermajoritarian political economies.

• We analyze how supermajority rules affect utilitarian welfare and political compromise.

• We find that majority rule maximizes both utilitarian welfare and political compromise under uncertainty.

Abstract

The standard Bowen model of political competition with single-peaked preferences (Bowen, 1943) predicts party convergence to the median voter’s ideal policy, with the number of equilibrium policies not exceeding two. This result assumes majority rule …

Organizational Structure And Pricing: Evidence From A Large U.S. Airline, Ali Hortaçsu, Olivia R. Natan, Hayden Parsley, Timothy Schwieg, Kevin R. Williams

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Firms facing complex objectives often decompose the problems they face, delegating different parts of the decision to distinct sub-units. Using comprehen-sive data and internal models from a large U.S. airline, we establish that airline pricing is not well approximated by a model of the firm as a unitary decision-maker. We show that observed prices, however, can be rationalized by account-ing for organizational structure and the decisions by departments that are tasked with supplying inputs to the observed pricing heuristic. Simulating the prices the firm would charge if it were a rational unitary decision-maker results in lower welfare than we estimate …

Demand Estimation With Infrequent Purchases And Small Market Sizes, Ali Hortaçsu, Olivia R. Natan, Hayden Parsley, Timothy Schwieg, Kevin R. Williams

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We propose a demand estimation method that allows for a large number of zero sale observations, rich unobserved heterogeneity, and endogenous prices. We do so by modeling small market sizes through Poisson arrivals. Each of these arriving consumers solves a standard discrete choice problem. We present a Bayesian IV estimation approach that addresses sampling error in product shares and scales well to rich data environments. The data requirements are traditional market-level data as well as a measure of market sizes or consumer arrivals. After presenting simulation studies, we demonstrate the method in an empirical application of air travel demand.

Borderplex Business Barometer, Volume 7, Number 6, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Steven L. Fullerton

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

The Urgency And Strategic Role Of Maqasid Shari'ah And Maslahah In Responding To The Legal And Economic Challenges Of Muslim Business, Fadhli Suko Wiryanto

Journal Of Middle East and Islamic Studies

The study of maqashid shari'ah began to receive intensive attention after the Prophet's death, especially when the Companions were faced with new problems and social changes that had never occurred when the Prophet Muhammad was still alive. With the existence of social changes as a result of the demands of the times and the dynamics of society, thus demanding the creativity of the friends seriously to conduct a study of the maqashid shari'ah as an effort to make legal breakthroughs to anticipate social changes that occur. Maqashid shari'ah and maslahat have a very urgent and strategic role to be used …

Philanthropic Traditions In Religions; A Comparative Study Of Jews, Islam, And Christianity, Ahmad Sobiyanto, Nurwahidin Nurwahidin

Journal Of Middle East and Islamic Studies

The philanthropic tradition is one of the recommended acts of worship in Islam which is part of the pillar of Islam, zakat. However, it turns out that this tradition also developed in other religions and became interesting to learn. The purpose of this study is to describe qualitatively about philanthropic traditions in the teachings of major religions in the middle east, namely Judaism, Islam, and Christianity. Descriptive qualitative method (using content analysis techniques) is a type of literature research through books, journals and other relevant sources used in this research. That the religions of Judaism, Islam, and Christianity each have …

Essays On Stakeholder Economy, Hanyu Zhang

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

The dissertation consists of two chapters on stakeholder economy. It looks at how firms interact with the stakeholders, including not only investors, employees, customers, governments, but also the broader community and society at large, and examines how such interactions affect corporate behavior in China and the global setting. The first chapter studies how societal culture shapes firm behavior and growth by analyzing the trade-off of relying on trust in acquiring stakeholder resources, and testing with data on the number of historic Confucian schools surrounding a current firm’s location in China. Companies more exposed to Confucianism have greater social contributions and …

Essays On Culture, Institutions, And Development, Meng Liu

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation consists of three chapters that study culture, institutions, and economic development. In the first chapter, we study the impact of Confucianism on long-run development in northern Vietnam. Using the variation in Confucian literati across 217 historical districts between the Primitive Le and Nguyen dynasties (1426 CE - 1919 CE), we find that districts with greater exposure to Confucianism have experienced better economic outcomes over the past century. The result is robust to using the distance to exogenously located hermit Confucian as an instrument and accounting for a battery of confounders. We show that the positive effects of Confucianism …

The Livingston Survey 2023, S. Anderson, B. Bovino, M. Brown, Thomas Lam, Et Al

Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics

The 15 participants in the June Livingston Survey predict higher output growth for the first half of 2023 than they predicted in the December 2022 survey. The forecasters, who are surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia twice a year, now project that the economy’s output (real GDP) will grow at an annual rate of 1.1 percent during the first half of 2023. They expect weaker conditions in the second half of 2023, when growth is expected to be at an annual rate of -0.7 percent. Both projections represent upward revisions from those of the December 2022 survey. Growth …

Digital Economy, Institutional Quality And Economic Growth In Selected Countries, Olabode P. Olofin Mr.

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the role of digital economy and institutional quality on economic growth of Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Kenya, and Nigeria. The study adopts the feasible generalized least square method with annual panel data from 1985 to 2017. Results show that digital economy, human capital and knowledge worker, and democratic accountability promote economic growth, while corruption, socioeconomic conditions, and bureaucratic quality retard economic growth. Furthermore, interaction of digital economy with corruption promotes growth. However, the interaction of digital economy with institutional quality retards economic growth, which could be due to the deteriorating institutional quality and low level of economic digitalization in …

Food Price And Inflation Adjustments In Nigeria: Evidence From Threshold Cointegration, Usman A. Bello, Aliyu R. Sanusi

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper investigates two stages of transmission through which inflation stabilization policy affects headline inflation by estimating a threshold cointegration model. The paper finds that asymmetric monetary shocks passing-through food prices exerts inflationary pressure on consumer prices, and is characterized by deep asymmetric movement, large degree of stickiness in adjusting downward, while exhibiting upward momentum in correcting food price fall. In addition, asymmetries were found in consumer price adjustment as food price shock transmits substantial inflationary pressure to consumer prices, while disinflationary effect originating from a fall in food price is inconsequential. The coefficients of adjustment were found to be …

Dynamic Effect Of Exchange Rate Gap Shocks On Stock Market Deepening: Evidence From Nigeria, Kareem Abidemi Arikewuyo

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

The study examines the exchange rate gap shock–stock market deepening nexus in Nigeria using the structural VAR-X (SVAR-X) technique for the period 1986Q1 to 2018Q4. Findings reveal that exchange rate gap shock has a negative but statistically not significant effect on stock market deepening in Nigeria. It was also found that exchange rate passed–through interest rate from second to thirteen quarter, and further through financial openness whose effect, like exchange rate gap, was negative. This implies that exchange rate gap is significantly and negatively related to interest rate and financial openness in Nigeria. It is therefore recommended that the monetary …

Modelling The Impact Of Government Expenditure On Economic Growth In Nigeria: The Moderating Effects Of Oil And Non-Oil Revenue, Victor U. Ijirshar, Gaius M. Asombo, Florence D. Bundepuun, Ashifa Tersugh, Ayila Ngutsav

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This study examines the relationship between government expenditure and economic growth and assesses the moderating effects of oil revenue and non-oil revenue in Nigeria from 1981 to 2021. The study uncovered short-term asymmetry in the government expenditure-economic growth nexus while the long-term relationship was symmetric. The study found that government expenditure is a significant determinant of economic growth in Nigeria and that oil and non-oil revenue influences the nexus between government expenditure and economic growth in Nigeria positively. The study recommends efficient management of oil revenue, directing investments during high revenue periods and ensuring fiscal sustainability. Government should also establish …

Improving The Efficiency Of Exponential Ratio-Type Estimator For Population Median: A Calibration Weight Adjustment Approach, Mathew J. Iseh, Kufre J. Bassey

CBN Journal of Applied Statistics (JAS)

This paper modifies the Bahl and Tuteja exponential ratio-type estimator for population median under simple random and stratified sampling schemes using calibration weight adjustment technique with supplementary information to vary the stratum weights. The bias and mean square error of the modified estimator were obtained up to the second-order approximation, which satisfies the necessary conditions for efficiency. The findings show that the new estimator surpasses existing estimators in efficiency gain. This suggests the appropriateness of calibration weight modification in boosting the efficiency of a population parameter estimator under stratified random sampling especially where the population parameter of the auxiliary variable …

Does Joining The European Monetary Union Improve Labor Productivity? A Synthetic Control Approach, Hong Zhuang, Miao Grace Wang, Imre Ersoy, Mesut Eren

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

We adopt the innovative synthetic control method (SCM) to study the causal effect of joining the European Monetary Union (EMU) on member countries’ labor productivity. Comparing labor productivity between members and their synthetic counterparts, we find that Belgium, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, and the Netherlands experienced significant labor productivity gains from the eurozone membership. Our results are robust to a series of sensitivity checks. We also observe similar effects of EMU on members’ total factor productivity (TFP). Furthermore, we explore potential channels through which a monetary union can influence members’ labor productivity. Our results show that business cycle synchronization with …

An Empirical Evaluation Of Neural Process Meta-Learners For Financial Forecasting, Kevin G. Patel

Master's Theses

Challenges of financial forecasting, such as a dearth of independent samples and non- stationary underlying process, limit the relevance of conventional machine learning towards financial forecasting. Meta-learning approaches alleviate some of these is- sues by allowing the model to generalize across unrelated or loosely related tasks with few observations per task. The neural process family achieves this by con- ditioning forecasts based on a supplied context set at test time. Despite promise, meta-learning approaches remain underutilized in finance. To our knowledge, ours is the first application of neural processes to realized volatility (RV) forecasting and financial forecasting in general.

We …

The Economic Surplus, The Baran Ratio, And Long Wave Cycles, Thomas E. Lambert

Faculty and Staff Scholarship

This paper briefly outlines the idea and development of the economic surplus concept at the macroeconomic level as opposed to the one in microeconomics often labeled as a Marshallian surplus. Of special interest and focus is the concept as developed and used by heterodox economists. The notion of a residual amount of output or income over and above what is necessary for a society’s consumption (education, housing, food, clothing, health care, transportation, and other necessities of life) that can be used either for further consumption by an elite class, used for reinvestment in productive activities, and/or wasted on unproductive efforts …

(Wp 2023-02) What Are Reflexive Economic Agents? Position-Adjustment, Slam, And Self-Organization, John B. Davis

Economics Working Papers

If mainstream economics and its view of economic agents is designed for a world in which reflexivity and feedback processes in the economy are ‘tamed’ and predictable, how are we to understand economic agents in a world in which reflexivity is ‘untamed’ and economies regularly exhibit unexpected fluctuations and significant nonlinearities? In a nonlinear world, economies evolve and undergo critical phase transitions from one form of organization to another. It seems, then, that we should also expect economic agents to evolve and undergo critical phase transitions from being one type of agent to another just as we observe that economies …

Montana Travel Region & Counties - Economic Contribution Of 2021/2022 Averaged Nonresident Travel Spending, Kara Grau

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

Nonresidents now spend over $5 billion in Montana each year. This report looks at the distribution of spending across Montana's six travel regions, as well as 18 of the 56 counties with the highest spending based on an average of 2021 and 2022 spending data.

Snowmobile Recreation In Western Montana, Liam Harry, Melissa Weddell

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

This report is a summary of recreation snowmobilers in Western Montana regarding their visitor characteristics and demographics. The Institute forTourism and Recreation Research (ITRR) conducted surveys of snowmobilers to understand the profile and general characteristics of this user group.

2022 Resident Visitation: Yellowstone National Park & Glacier National Park, Carter Bermingham, Megan Schultz, Matthew Pettigrew, Glenna Brown

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

This particular study was conducted to better understand resident visitation to the national parks in the state, and to also understand some of the obstacles that may have prevented residents from visiting the parks in 2022. This report includes information on monthly visitation to both Glacier and Yellowstone national parks, as well as the number of respondents who were deterred by the flooding in Yellowstone and the ticketed-entry system in Glacier.

Endogenous Political Legitimacy: The Tudor Roots Of England’S Constitutional Governance, Avner Greif, Jared Rubin

ESI Working Papers

This paper highlights the importance of endogenous changes in the foundations of legitimacy for political regimes. It focuses on the central role of legitimacy changes in the rise of constitutional monarchy in England. It first defines legitimacy and briefly elaborates a theoretical framework enabling a historical study of this unobservable variable. It proceeds to substantiate that the low-legitimacy, post-Reformation Tudor monarchs of the 16th century promoted Parliament to enhance their legitimacy, thereby changing the legislative process from the “Crown and Parliament” to the “Crown in Parliament” that still prevails in England.

Is Democracy Good For Growth? Development At Political Transition Time Matters, Di Sima, Fali Huang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Is democracy a better political regime for economic prosperity than autocracy? This paper shows that the answer depends on the initial economic development level during the democratic transition when the foundation of institutions was laid. Democracy facilitates growth only in countries that already have adequate development at transition time. These countries are more likely to create and sustain growth-enhancing institutions than others. Without appropriate development, democracy does not improve growth; this applies to about 40% of the third-wave democratized countries. These results are based on a sample of 153 countries in 1960–2010 and robust to various specifications and endogeneity issues.

Brothers, Sisters, And Support To Older Parents: Separate Spheres Across And Within Support Types?, Christine Ho, Kathleen Mcgarry

Research Collection School Of Economics

Parents in many countries exhibit a strong preference for sons over daughters; a preference that is often observed regarding transfers to children. Here, we ask whether son preference also drives differences in behavior regarding transfers from sons and daughters. We use data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) to examine the patterns of giving to parents and find strong evidence of such differentiation. Coresidential support comes almost exclusively from sons as do large transfers, while daughters are more likely to make small transfers. Moreover, crowding-out of financial transfers by siblings occurs primarily within gender: sons give less …

Disagreement In Market Index Options, Guilherme Salome, George Tauchen, Jia Li

Research Collection School Of Economics

We generate new evidence on disagreement among traders in the S&P 500 options market from high-frequency intraday price and volume data. Inference on disagreement is based on a model where investors observe public information but agree to disagree on its interpretation; disagreement among investors is captured by the volume–volatility elasticity. For options, there are two natural variables related to disagreement: moneyness and tenor, which we relate to disagreement about the distribution of the market index at different quantiles and times. The estimated volume–volatility elasticity equals unity for options near the money and close to expiration, which is consistent with the …

Regression-Adjusted Estimation Of Quantile Treatment Effects Under Covariate-Adaptive Randomizations, Liang Jiang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Yubo Tao, Yichong Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Datasets from field experiments with covariate-adaptive randomizations (CARs) usually contain extra covariates in addition to the strata indicators. We propose to incorporate these additional covariates via auxiliary regressions in the estimation and inference of unconditional quantile treatment effects (QTEs) under CARs. We establish the consistency and limit distribution of the regression-adjusted QTE estimator and prove that the use of multiplier bootstrap inference is non-conservative under CARs. The auxiliary regression may be estimated parametrically, nonparametrically, or via regularization when the data are high-dimensional. Even when the auxiliary regression is misspecified, the proposed bootstrap inferential procedure still achieves the nominal rejection probability …

Protecting Youth From Mexican Drug Cartel Recruitment: The Prospects Of Educational Interventions, Lisa Hochstetler

Lux et Fides: A Journal for Undergraduate Christian Scholars

This investigation considers the impact of Mexico’s War on Drugs since 2006 and the influence of widespread cartel networks on the youth population. As both victims and perpetrators of drug-related crime, the young individuals of Mexico are the center of this research. The goal of this investigation was to determine how education in Mexico’s grade schools could be leveraged to protect its youth from drug-related violence and cartel recruitment. Therefore, the study examines both the challenges suffered by the education system due to the Drug War and the prospects for educational interventions to strengthen and protect youth over and against …

They Shrank The Futures Contracts! Mini Futures Contracts: What They Are And How To Use Them, Fabio Mattos

Cornhusker Economics

Mini futures contracts (or e-mini, since they are traded electronically) were first developed in the late 1990s based on futures contracts that already existed. The main characteristic of mini contracts is that they represent a fraction of standard-size contracts. For example, the first mini contract was launched in 1997 and based on the S&P500 futures contract. The size of the standard futures contract is $250 times the value of the S&P500 index, while the size of the mini futures contract is $50 times the value of the S&P500 index. If the index is at 4,200 points, the total value of …

Correlated Equilibrium And Evolutionary Stability In 3-Player Rock-Paper-Scissors, William Grant

Department of Economics - Faculty Scholarship

In the game of rock-paper-scissors with three players, this paper identifies conditions for a correlated equilibrium that differs from the mixed strategy Nash equilibrium and is evolutionarily stable. For this to occur, the correlation device attaches more probability to three-way ties and solo-winner outcomes than would result from the Nash equilibrium. The correlated equilibrium is evolutionarily stable because any mutant fares worse than a signal-following player when facing two players who follow their own correlated signals. The critical quality of the correlation device is to make this true both for potential mutants who would disobey their signal and instead choose …

Essays On Political Economy And Behavior, Seth Emblem

Economics Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation consists of three essays which focus on the intersection of political economy and behavioral economics. I am interested in understanding how people behave in politically adjacent areas so that we can find the policy interventions that can best address the issues that arise from these areas. To do so, I utilize incentivized survey instruments and laboratory experiments to study how people behave in these settings. In Chapter 1, I examine the question of how people respond to standard political surveys and whether these surveys reflect people’s genuine beliefs regarding factual political questions. Responses to standard political surveys suggest …