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Full-Text Articles in Economics

Essays On Empirical Asset Pricing, Luying Wang Mar 2024

Essays On Empirical Asset Pricing, Luying Wang

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

The dissertation consists of three chapters on empirical asset pricing. The first chapter examines
the market return predictability of media coverage on climate change. Specifically, we introduce a
comprehensive media climate change concern (ΔCMCCC) index, derived from unexpected climate
change coverage across diverse media channels, including print (newspapers), voice (radio), and
video (television). We show that this index negatively predicts aggregate stock market returns, both
in-sample and out-of-sample, offering potential gains for investors. Our findings emphasize the
media’s influence on market returns through climate change discussions, mainly via the cash-flow
channel. This reveals possible shifts in product demand, while demand …

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The Effect Of Water Pollution Regulation On Prices: Evidence From Wisconsin’S Phosphorus Rule And Sewer Utility Bills, Andrew G. Meyer, Zach Raff Mar 2024

The Effect Of Water Pollution Regulation On Prices: Evidence From Wisconsin’S Phosphorus Rule And Sewer Utility Bills, Andrew G. Meyer, Zach Raff

Economics Faculty Research and Publications

In this paper, we estimate the consumer impacts of Wisconsin's “phosphorus rule”, which created the most stringent statewide water quality and effluent standards for phosphorus in the country. We examine how compliance with the rule affects real billing rates at sewer utilities in Wisconsin, providing the first empirical estimates of water pollution regulation on utility billing rates. We find that compliance with the phosphorous rule increases the average real sewer utility bill in our sample by 7–12%. Our results imply that sewer utilities pass through approximately $65.8 million to residential sewer rate payers annually, which is roughly ⅔ of the …

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Within-Development Density And Housing Prices In Singapore, Eric Fesselmeyer, Haoming Liu, Louisa Poco Mar 2024

Within-Development Density And Housing Prices In Singapore, Eric Fesselmeyer, Haoming Liu, Louisa Poco

Research Collection College of Integrative Studies

This paper measures how much more households pay for less density in their immediate surroundings. Using transaction and administrative data and exploiting the introduction of a regulation that restricted the number of housing units for certain land lots, we find that households discount density: a 10% increase in within-development density decreases the price per square meter by 5%. Further, the mean price per square meter of the average development increased by 1%–3% after the regulation was introduced, while the amount of built-up space remained constant. The increase in total revenue suggests developers may underestimate the externality caused by density.

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The Interplay Of Interdependence And Correlation In Bilateral Trade, Takashi Kunimoto, Cuiling Zhang Mar 2024

The Interplay Of Interdependence And Correlation In Bilateral Trade, Takashi Kunimoto, Cuiling Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Crémer and McLean (1988) show that the seller can extract full surplus almost always by an incentive compatible, individually rational mechanism in a single-unit auction model with a finite type space in which agents' beliefs are correlated and their valuations can be interdependent. We first show that this paradoxically positive result can be extended to a model of bilateral trades. To make it more realistic, we investigate when ex-post efficiency and ex-post budget balance in bilateral trades can also be achieved by an incentive compatible, individually rational mechanism. We identify a necessary condition for the existence of such mechanisms and …

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Robust Inference On Correlation Under General Heterogeneity, Liudas Giraitis, Yuefei Li, Peter C. B. Phillips Mar 2024

Robust Inference On Correlation Under General Heterogeneity, Liudas Giraitis, Yuefei Li, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

Considerable evidence in past research shows size distortion in standard tests for zero autocorrelation or zero cross-correlation when time series are not independent identically distributed random variables, pointing to the need for more robust procedures. Recent tests for serial correlation and cross-correlation in Dalla, Giraitis, and Phillips (2022) provide a more robust approach, allowing for heteroskedasticity and dependence in uncorrelated data under restrictions that require a smooth, slowly-evolving deterministic heteroskedasticity process. The present work removes those restrictions and validates the robust testing methodology for a wider class of innovations and regression residuals allowing for heteroscedastic uncorrelated and non-stationary data settings. …

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High Frequency Principal Component Analysis Based On Correlation Matrix That Is Robust To Jumps, Microstructure Noise And Asynchronous Observation Times, Dachuan Chen Mar 2024

High Frequency Principal Component Analysis Based On Correlation Matrix That Is Robust To Jumps, Microstructure Noise And Asynchronous Observation Times, Dachuan Chen

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper developed the high frequency estimation for the principal component analysis (PCA) based on correlation matrix. This estimation methodology is robust to jumps, microstructure noise and asynchronous observation times simultaneously, which is enabled by the newly proposed Truncated and Smoothed Two-Scales Realized Volatility (Truncated S-TSRV) estimator. The general framework of our methodology is constructed based on the estimation of realized spectral functions with respect to the spot correlation matrix. A new asymptotic representation for the element-wise estimation error of the spot correlation matrix estimate has been derived, resulting in a new bias correction term which is much more complex …

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Taking Pleasure In Distinction: Unlocking Specialty Coffee Preference, Ondrej Mitas, Danny D. Han, Belle Struijer, Lotte Willems, Thomas H. Chatwick Mar 2024

Taking Pleasure In Distinction: Unlocking Specialty Coffee Preference, Ondrej Mitas, Danny D. Han, Belle Struijer, Lotte Willems, Thomas H. Chatwick

Journal of Global Business Insights

Specialty coffee, comprising a tenth of the global coffee trade, is distinguished by its strict quality requirements and traceable origins. The diverse flavor profiles of specialty coffee raise demands on providers to serve individual taste preferences. Prior research has not sufficiently explored how to predict customer preferences for specific flavor profiles or how these preferences influence behavioral intentions such as revisiting or recommending a café. This study hypothesized that customer involvement, the extrinsic factors of coffee experience, and culinary risk-taking would predict flavor preference, which would in turn affect behavioral intentions. In an experiment involving 47 participants, individuals tasted and …

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The Influence Of Societal Nationalist Sentiment On Trade Flows, Douglas Dow, Ilya Cuypers Mar 2024

The Influence Of Societal Nationalist Sentiment On Trade Flows, Douglas Dow, Ilya Cuypers

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In recent years, the world has witnessed a backlash against globalization and a rise in populist and nationalist movements around the world. However, there appears to be little empirical research concerning how these movements, and especially nationalist sentiment, actually influence trade. Therefore, we explore how and when nationalist sentiment within a country influences trade. Our results indicate that the effect of nationalist sentiment on imports is mediated by lower participation in free trade agreements (FTAs) but not via tariffs. Furthermore, we are unable to confirm support for a direct effect of nationalist sentiment on imports, as predicted by the consumer …

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Interrelationships Among The Rice Export Prices Of Major Exporting Countries: In Search Of The Leader And Followers, Khondoker Abdul Mottaleb, Alvaro Durand-Morat Mar 2024

Interrelationships Among The Rice Export Prices Of Major Exporting Countries: In Search Of The Leader And Followers, Khondoker Abdul Mottaleb, Alvaro Durand-Morat

Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Faculty Publications and Presentations

By examining the econometric interrelationships of rice export prices of India, Thailand, Vietnam, Pakistan, the U.S., Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay, this study examines the most influential rice-exporting countries in the international rice export market. The sampled countries are the source of more than 80% of the global rice exports. In the process, this study relies on online data portals of the United Nations and country-level sources for aromatic and non-aromatic rice export price information from India, Pakistan, and Thailand. This study employed the Prais-Winsten and Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) estimation processes with the error correction procedure. Combining the findings from …

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Horse Racing And Historical Horse Racing’S Impact On The Kentucky Economy: Possible Hhr Saturation?, Thomas E. Lambert Mar 2024

Horse Racing And Historical Horse Racing’S Impact On The Kentucky Economy: Possible Hhr Saturation?, Thomas E. Lambert

Faculty and Staff Scholarship

The Commonwealth of Kentucky currently has 5 thoroughbred racing tracks and 3 harness racing tracks (Kentucky Horse Racing Commission 2023 and Mint Julep Louisville 2021). As Table 1 below shows, the industry employees roughly 7,000 people (direct jobs), and these jobs annually support another 2,000 jobs or so throughout the state. These 2,000 jobs are jobs that are provided by the suppliers to the horse race tracks (indirect jobs) and jobs that are created by the spending of the race track employees and the employees of suppliers on food, housing, transportation, and clothing by vendors and retailers throughout the state …

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“Safe” Annuity Retirement Products And A Possible Us Retirement Crisis, Thomas E. Lambert, Christopher B. Tobe Mar 2024

“Safe” Annuity Retirement Products And A Possible Us Retirement Crisis, Thomas E. Lambert, Christopher B. Tobe

Faculty and Staff Scholarship

This paper examines a looming possible crisis in many Americans’ retirement plans due to the proliferation of annuity products in their retirement investment portfolios. As defined benefit pension plans have almost completely disappeared as a means of retirement savings and have been replaced by defined contribution retirement plans over the last 40 to 50 years, a great number of private and public sector defined contribution retirement plans have become laden with insurance contracts called annuities. Of the remaining solid defined benefit plans many, through a process called Pension Risk Transfer are being converted to high-risk single entity annuities. Such products …

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Empowering Voices: Exploring The Career Trajectories Of Women Of Color Hr Professionals Amid Disruptive Change, Brandi R. Muñoz Mar 2024

Empowering Voices: Exploring The Career Trajectories Of Women Of Color Hr Professionals Amid Disruptive Change, Brandi R. Muñoz

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

This study investigated strategies to enhance diversity, equity, inclusion, and belonging initiatives in organizational leadership, focusing on supporting women of color in the workplace. The specific problem addressed was the underrepresentation and barriers faced by women of color in leadership positions despite their potential contributions to organizational success. The study employed a qualitative approach, combining qualitative interviews with socioeconomic data analysis. Data collection methods included semistructured interviews with women of color and a survey to gather demographic and employment information. The sample consisted of 16 women of color human resource professionals working in various industries and organizational settings across the …

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Bootstrap Inference For Quantile Treatment Effects In Randomized Experiments With Matched Pairs, Liang Jiang, Xiaobin Liu, Peter C B Phillips, Yichong Zhang Mar 2024

Bootstrap Inference For Quantile Treatment Effects In Randomized Experiments With Matched Pairs, Liang Jiang, Xiaobin Liu, Peter C B Phillips, Yichong Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper examines methods of inference concerning quantile treatment effects (QTEs) in randomized experiments with matched-pairs designs (MPDs). Standard multiplier bootstrap inference fails to capture the negative dependence of observations within each pair and is therefore conservative. Analytical inference involves estimating multiple functional quantities that require several tuning parameters. Instead, this paper proposes two bootstrap methods that can consistently approximate the limit distribution of the original QTE estimator and lessen the burden of tuning parameter choice. Most especially, the inverse propensity score weighted multiplier bootstrap can be implemented without knowledge of pair identities.

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Life Satisfaction Changes And Adaptation In The Covid-19 Pandemic: Evidence From Singapore, Terence C. Cheng, Seonghoon Kim, Kanghyock Koh Mar 2024

Life Satisfaction Changes And Adaptation In The Covid-19 Pandemic: Evidence From Singapore, Terence C. Cheng, Seonghoon Kim, Kanghyock Koh

Research Collection School Of Economics

We provide novel evidence on how COVID-19 affected overall life satisfaction using a monthly longitudinal survey of middle-aged and older Singaporeans. We study how the subjective well-being of individuals evolves over the course of 18 months including the outbreak of the pandemic, the implementation of the lockdown and the spike of cases due to the delta variant in a country where COVID-19 is controlled in a sustained manner. Using an event-study design framework, we find large declines in overall life satisfaction in the lead-up to and following the lockdown. Fifteen months after the outbreak of the pandemic, and 13 months …

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Obfuscation And Rational Inattention, Aljoscha Janssen, Johannes Kasinger Mar 2024

Obfuscation And Rational Inattention, Aljoscha Janssen, Johannes Kasinger

Research Collection School Of Economics

We study the behavior of duopolistic firms that can obfuscate their prices before competing on price. Obfuscation affects the rational inattentive consumers' optimal information strategy, which determines the probabilistic demand. Our model advances related models by allowing consumers to update their unrestricted prior beliefs with an informative signal of any form. We show that the game may result in an obfuscation equilibrium with high prices or a transparency equilibrium with low prices and no obfuscation, providing an argument for market regulation. Obfuscation equilibria cease to exist for low information costs and if one firm seems a priori considerably more attractive.

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Migration And Resource Misallocation In China, Xiaolu Li, Lin Ma, Yang Tang Mar 2024

Migration And Resource Misallocation In China, Xiaolu Li, Lin Ma, Yang Tang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We structurally estimate the firm-level frictions across prefectures in China and quantify their aggregate and distributional implications. Based on a general equilibrium model with input and output distortions and migration, we show that the firm-level frictions are less dispersed and less correlated with firm productivity in richer prefectures. Counterfactual exercises show that reducing the within-prefecture misallocation increases aggregate welfare, discourages migration toward large prefectures, and reduces spatial inequality. Moreover, internal migration alleviates micro-frictions’ impacts on aggregate welfare and worsens their effects on spatial inequality.

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The Distributional Impacts Of Transportation Networks In China, Lin Ma, Yang Tang Mar 2024

The Distributional Impacts Of Transportation Networks In China, Lin Ma, Yang Tang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We document that the quality of roads and railroads vary substantially over time and space in China, and neglecting these variations biases the distributional impacts of transportation networks. To account for quality differences, we construct a new panel dataset and approximate quality using the design speed of roads and railroads that varies by vintage, class, and terrain at the pixel level. We then build a dynamic spatial general equilibrium model for multiple modes, transportation routes, and forward-looking migration decisions. Our findings demonstrate that disregarding quality differences leads to a median bias of approximately 31% in estimating real wage growth rates …

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Panel Data Models With Time-Varying Latent Group Structures, Yiren Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Liangjun Su Mar 2024

Panel Data Models With Time-Varying Latent Group Structures, Yiren Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper considers a linear panel model with interactive fixed effects and unobserved individual and time heterogeneities that are captured by some latent group structures and an unknown structural break, respectively. To enhance realism, the model may have different numbers of groups and/or different group memberships before and after the break. With preliminary nuclear norm regularized estimation followed by row- and column-wise linear regressions, we estimate the break point based on the idea of binary segmentation and the latent group structures together with the number of groups before and after the break by sequential testing K-means algorithm simultaneously. It is …

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Interim Regret Minimization, Wei He, Jiangtao Li, Kexin Wang Mar 2024

Interim Regret Minimization, Wei He, Jiangtao Li, Kexin Wang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider a robust version of monopoly pricing when the seller only knows the bound on valuations and the mean of the distribution of the buyer’s value. The seller seeks to minimize interim regret, the forgone expected revenue due to not knowing the distribution of the buyer’s value. The optimal pricing policy randomizes over a range of prices; the support of the pricing policy is bounded away from zero.

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Who Watched Pre/Post-Lecture Tutorial Videos? Does Flipped Learning Help Beginners In Economics?, Bei Hong Mar 2024

Who Watched Pre/Post-Lecture Tutorial Videos? Does Flipped Learning Help Beginners In Economics?, Bei Hong

Research Collection School Of Economics

The modern-day classroom is characterized by academic diversity, with students from varied backgrounds and with different levels of prior knowledge. To cater to the diverse abilities of students, this paper explored the use of flipped learning as a teaching approach in an introductory economics course. We investigated the effectiveness of 40 pre-lecture videos covering basic concepts and 27 post-lecture tutorial videos focusing on practice in improving students' exam outcomes, especially for beginners in economics who may require more support from instructors than other students. We collected data about video engagement and students' grades in progress assessments. Surveys were conducted to …

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Testing The Dimensionality Of Policy Shocks, Jia Li, Viktor Todorov, Qiushi Zhang Mar 2024

Testing The Dimensionality Of Policy Shocks, Jia Li, Viktor Todorov, Qiushi Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper provides a nonparametric test for deciding the dimensionality of a policy shock as manifest in the abnormal change in asset returns' stochastic covariance matrix, following the release of a macroeconomic announcement. We use high-frequency data in local windows before and after the event to estimate the covariance jump matrix, and then test its rank. We find a one-factor structure in the covariance jump matrix of the yield curve resulting from the Federal Reserve's monetary policy shocks prior to the 2007-2009 financial crisis. The dimensionality of policy shocks increased afterwards due to the use of unconventional monetary policy tools.

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Optimal Inference For Spot Regressions, Tim Bollerslev, Jia Li, Yuexuan Ren Mar 2024

Optimal Inference For Spot Regressions, Tim Bollerslev, Jia Li, Yuexuan Ren

Research Collection School Of Economics

Betas from return regressions are commonly used to measure systematic financial market risks. "Good" beta measurements are essential for a range of empirical inquiries in finance and macroeconomics. We introduce a novel econometric framework for the nonparametric estimation of time-varying betas with high-frequency data. The "local Gaussian" property of the generic continuous-time benchmark model enables optimal "finite-sample" inference in a well-defined sense. It also affords more reliable inference in empirically realistic settings compared to conventional large-sample approaches. Two applications pertaining to the tracking performance of leveraged ETFs and an intraday event study illustrate the practical usefulness of the new procedures.

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The Economic Costs Of Political Instability: Evidence From Pakistan, Shahid Hussain, Falik Shear Mar 2024

The Economic Costs Of Political Instability: Evidence From Pakistan, Shahid Hussain, Falik Shear

Business Review

This study analyses the impact of Political Instability (PI) on economic growth. PI is referred as the frequent regime or government changes in a country. PI affects economic growth due to inconsistent and uncertain government policies regarding investment and trade, tax system, government spending and fiscal balance, debt structure, monetary policy, exchange rates and inflation. PI coupled with these factors affects internal and external investments and ultimately future economic growth rates. Employing data from Pakistan for the period of 1984-2018, a country with a long history of various episodes of political instability under various democratic and non-democratic regimes, this study …

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Covid-19 And Its Impact On Multinational Enterprises: A Modified Value At Risk Approach, Kashi Khazeh, Leonard Arvi, Robert C. Winder Mar 2024

Covid-19 And Its Impact On Multinational Enterprises: A Modified Value At Risk Approach, Kashi Khazeh, Leonard Arvi, Robert C. Winder

Journal of Global Business Insights

Multinational enterprises (MNEs) operating across different currencies are exposed to exchange rate risk. They may utilize a variety of tools to mitigate that risk. While there are different types of exchange rate risk, this study focuses specifically on the ongoing exposure of cash flow transactions denominated in the currencies of seven different developed countries. Since other types of risk (i.e., economic and translation) are evaluated based on yearly results, they are not considered in this study. The modified value-at-risk (MVaR) model is employed to estimate the maximum one-period losses during the eighteen months before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic …

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Markov Equilibrium Of Social Security: An Analytic Solution Under Crra Utility And The Future Of Social Security, Armando R. Lopez-Velasco Mar 2024

Markov Equilibrium Of Social Security: An Analytic Solution Under Crra Utility And The Future Of Social Security, Armando R. Lopez-Velasco

School of Economics and Finance Faculty Publications

The politico-economic sustainability of pay-as-you-go social security has been studied with the help of two-period overlapping generation models under Markovian equilibrium concepts. The literature has mostly used logarithmic utility for tractability, whereas versions under the more general isoelastic CRRA utility have only been analyzed computationally. This paper demonstrates that a prototypical social security model under CRRA utility has a closed-form solution; it revisits previously obtained computational conclusions and presents new findings and extensions. Quantitatively, the model can explain the observed path of payroll tax rates in the USA and predicts increased tax rates as the equilibrium response to lower future …

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Spillover Effects Of Capital Controls: A Critical Review And New Agenda For The Future Directions, Biswajit Panigrahi, K.P Prabheesh Feb 2024

Spillover Effects Of Capital Controls: A Critical Review And New Agenda For The Future Directions, Biswajit Panigrahi, K.P Prabheesh

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study tries to undertake a critical review of the spillover effects of capital controls and their welfare implications. We provide a synthesis of the literature on both the theoretical and empirical literature on the spillover effects of capital controls. Furthermore, the role of similar economies (geographical region, and economic characteristics), direction-specific capital controls, global financial crisis (GFC), asset-specific capital controls and the compositional effect of capital flows are discussed to explore the degree and extent of spillover effects of capital controls policy. Similarly, the welfare implications of capital controls depend on the policy motive behind the imposition of capital …

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Digitalization And Economies Of Oic Countries, Mohsin Ali, Urooj Anwar, Mudeer Ahmed Khattak, Muhammad Umar Islam Feb 2024

Digitalization And Economies Of Oic Countries, Mohsin Ali, Urooj Anwar, Mudeer Ahmed Khattak, Muhammad Umar Islam

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This paper studies the impact of digitalization on the Organization of Islamic countries (OIC) economies. The study is conducted to see whether digitalization is playing its role in enhancing economic growth. We employ a panel dataset consisting of twenty-one years from 2000 to 2020 for 57 OIC countries. We use the system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator. The results indicate that digitalization positively impacts the economies of OIC countries. As for policy implication, this study recommends governments of OIC member countries to invest in digital infrastructure in order to foster economic growth.

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Cost Of Capital And Climate Risk In The Indonesian Bonds Market, Maulana Harris Harris Muhajir Feb 2024

Cost Of Capital And Climate Risk In The Indonesian Bonds Market, Maulana Harris Harris Muhajir

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study analyzes the impact of climate risk, cost of capital, and macroeconomic variables on the Indonesian bond market, focusing on non-ESG aware and ESG-aware bonds. Using a regression analysis, we found that the cost of capital has a significant negative effect on bond yields, highlighting the importance of policymakers focusing on initiatives that can lower the cost of capital for investors. Inflation rate was also found to have a significant positive effect on non-ESG aware bonds, which is a unique feature of the Indonesian bond market. We found that ESG-aware bond yields were negatively significant, indicating that investors are …

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Reinvigorating Gva Nowcasting In The Post-Pandemic Period: A Case Study For India, Kaustubh Na, Soumya Suvra Bhadury, Saurabh Ghosh Feb 2024

Reinvigorating Gva Nowcasting In The Post-Pandemic Period: A Case Study For India, Kaustubh Na, Soumya Suvra Bhadury, Saurabh Ghosh

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

We reinvigorate nowcasting models considering structural changes caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. It emphasizes the need to understand the heterogeneous impact of shocks on agriculture, industry, and services sectors in an emerging market economy (e.g., India). Our findings advocate a bottom-up approach that tracks sectors separately rather than a headline number. Our results suggest including digital-activity index and supply-side disruption index in the post-pandemic period could improve nowcast performance. Expectation-Maximization (E-M) algorithm is used to combine data series based on their availability. Among bridging methods, the averaging method is preferred due to its simplicity and flexibility.

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Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Inflation Expectations In India? Evidences From Surveys Of Household And Professional Forecasters, Irfan Ali Kc Feb 2024

Does Inflation Targeting Anchor Inflation Expectations In India? Evidences From Surveys Of Household And Professional Forecasters, Irfan Ali Kc

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study examines whether inflation targeting (IT) anchors household and professional forecasters expectations in India. It investigates whether food and non-food inflation affect anchoring inflation expectations differently. Primarily, the results indicate significant decreases in the level and variability of expectations. Further, it provides evidence of successful anchoring for professional forecasters' and household expectations. However, it also found food inflation assist anchoring of expectations, while the non-food inflation doesn't. The results suggest the central bank to emphasize more on non-food inflation for better anchoring prospects. Additionally, the study identifies food inflation as the primary contributor to headline inflation variability.

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