Economics Commons^™

“Essential” Migrants: Evidence From The 2020 H-2b Visa Lottery, Parag Mahajan

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

I study how access to foreign-born workers impacts firms and local economics in times of acute crisis. The 2020 H-2B visa lottery randomly gave some U.S. firms the chance to hire low-wage, migrant workers during the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. Using administrative data across three government agencies, I find that access to H-2B workers led to decreased business closures, increased revenues, increased payroll, and increased employment in 2020. I also find suggestive evidence that these effects spilled over to non-participant firms within the same county.

Cse1, Cse2, Fredholm, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Laski, K. (1981). Review of Essays on the theory of joint production by L. L. Pasinetti. Journal of Economic Literature, 19(4), 1579–1581.

• A JSTOR information page for the Laski book review (December 1981)

• A letter from Ann Newton requesting a referee report for a paper (July 9, 2007)

• A blank referee's report form (Ms. no: 2475) from the Cambridge Journal of Economics

• The unpublished paper "The weakness of the empirical labour theory of value: Evidence from the supply and use tables of the Greek economy" by Theodore Mariolis and George …

Navigating Modernity: Political And Economic Shifts In The Nineteenth Cenutry, Austin Delsontro, Andrew Cox

Chronicles: Journal Of History

No abstract provided.

Essays On Monetary Economics, Joseph Kachovec

Arts & Sciences Graduate Student Theses and Dissertations

Chapter I builds a quantitative New-Keynesian model with a central bank balance sheet, fiscal policy, and a representative financial intermediary facing uncertainty to show how interest rate policy has an additional counter-cyclical fiscal impact via central bank income when reserves are abundant as opposed to scarce. A counterfactual analysis between the US economies with small and large central bank balance sheets of 2005 and 2018 shows that in response to demand, supply, and government spending shocks, the real effects of identical interest rate changes are amplified in the abundant reserves economy. In response to a 1% preference shock, cumulative fluctuations …

Microfinance In Latin America: Sustainability, Growth, And Efficiency, Katelyn M. Hoidal

Global Tides

The subsequent research addresses the question: Within populous Latin American countries (Ecuador, Mexico, Panama, Argentina, Chile, and Peru), are microfinance institutions associated with differences in GDP and household consumption equally between 2010 and 2018? Which do they have a stronger correlation with? The essence of this question seeks to answer whether the correlation between MFIs and wealth indicators carries over to a national level or merely persists at an individual level. This research has been informed and influenced by literature and studies conducted across South Asia, Africa, and Latin America focusing on the research of Abdelkader, Naveeda, Annim, Campbell, Armendáriz, …

Fiscal Policy In A Growth Context, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Lautzenheiser, M., & Yasar, Y. (2006). Circulation and effective demand: A comment on Nell. Cambridge Journal of Economics, 30(4), 651–656.

• Lecture notes titled Economic policy in a growth context: A synthesis of Keynes and Harrod (2001-05-30)

• Notes on Harrod-Godley synthesis [Handwritten notes] (2005-11-30)

• Concluding remarks on Economic policy in a growth context [Handwritten notes] (2005-11-30)

• Keynes & Harrod (2005-10-17, handwritten notes)

• Graphs modeling government spending on growth of output [Graphs] (undated)

• Corrections (2005-11-30, handwritten notes)

• Email exchange regarding the government sector in the Shaikh-Keynes-Harrod model (2005-11-30, 2005-12-01)

• Harrod dynamics [Handwritten notes] (undated)

• Notes on Economic policy …

  ---

  Go to article

Capacity Utilization, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Kalman filter cap utilization (2005-05-26, handwritten notes)

• Handwritten notes on Harvey's structural time series model [Handwritten notes] (undated)

• Regression output for D(LNYRMFG) with related handwritten notes (2005-04-25)

• Handwritten notes on ARDL models [Handwritten notes] (undated)

• Capacity utilization model discussing AR processes [Handwritten notes] (undated)

• Handwritten notes comparing Kalman filter, ARDL, and OLS models [Handwritten notes] (undated)

• Handwritten notes on time series model equations [Handwritten notes] (undated)

• Handwritten notes on error correction models [Handwritten notes] (undated)

• Handwritten notes discussing ARIMA and ECM [Handwritten notes] (undated)

• Handwritten notes discussing AR(3) and MA(3) models [Handwritten notes] (undated)

• One general cap. …

  ---

  Go to article

Capacity Utilization Paper, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Handwritten notes titled Capacity Utilization, discussing estimation using AIC and SBC (2004-10)

• Handwritten notes titled Time Path of Capital-Capacity Ratio (2005-04-16)

• Handwritten notes with equations related to capital, growth rates, and output (2005)

• Excerpt from a text titled Appendix 1. Principal structural time series components and models, with handwritten notes (2005)

• Handwritten notes discussing Pesaran (1997) and related equations (2005-04-03)

• Handwritten notes discussing cointegration and I(0)/I(1) variables, citing Enders (1995) (2005-02-15)

• Handwritten notes titled Cointegration, discussing ARDL models (2005-04-11)

• Handwritten notes titled Issue, discussing testing procedures for I(0)/I(1) variables and ECM (2005-04-18)

• Handwritten …

  ---

  Go to article

Metro Economica, Harrod Paper Reports Round 2, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. (2009). Economic policy in a growth context: A classical synthesis of Keynes and Harrod. Metroeconomica, 60(3), 455–494.

• Hicks-Harrod adj in difference form (2007-01-28, handwritten notes)

• Handwritten diagrams and notes [Handwritten diagrams/notes] (2008-06-01)

• Growth model diagrams [Diagrams] (undated)

• Handwritten notes comparing growth equations [Handwritten notes] (undated)

• Handwritten notes comparing Hicks-Harrod vs Sen-Harrod models [Handwritten notes] (2008-05-30)

• Notation changed (undated, handwritten notes discussing Sen’s algebra)

• Handwritten notes comparing “End of Period Stock” vs “Beg of Period Stock” calculations [Handwritten notes] (undated)

• Handwritten notes comparing Hicks-Harrod differential equation form vs HA difference form of reduced form model …

  ---

  Go to article

On Economic Policy In A Growth Context, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Cover letter to Neri Salvadori regarding revisions to Economic policy in a growth context (2007-01-27)

• Excel sheet calculations for Appendix A of Harrod paper (2008-06-02)

• Hicks-Harrod adj in difference equation form (2008-06-01, handwritten notes)

• Handwritten notes comparing Hicks-Harrod and Harrod difference forms (2008-05, handwritten notes)

• Pure stability model – Sen (2008-05, handwritten notes)

• Figures showing simulation response to a drop in the savings rate [Figures] (undated)

• Copy of the paper Economic policy in a growth context [Document] (undated)

• Comments on Harrod policy paper from Metroeconomica (2006-12-30, notes)

Harrod Policy Paper Corrections, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Email from Paul Davidson discussing the government sector in Shaikh’s Keynes-Harrod model (2005-12-01)

• Email from Neri Salvadori regarding a decision on Shaikh’s submission titled Economic policy in a growth context: A synthesis of Keynes and Harrod, requesting revisions (undated)

• Critical referee report on Shaikh’s submission [Referee report] (undated)

• Referee report by Carlo Panico recommending acceptance with revisions (2006-04-02)

• Notes from Lance Taylor concerning the Harrod/Shaikh paper (2005-12-02)

• Handwritten notes comparing the paradox of thrift and the paradox of growth [Handwritten notes] (undated)

• Excerpt from Kurz, H.-D., & Salvadori, N. (2006). Endogenous growth in a stylised “classical” …

  ---

  Go to article

Macro Dynamics, Savings Rate, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Several graphs illustrating macroeconomic shocks [Graphs] (2007-01-28)

• Handwritten notes on macroeconomic dynamics, stability conditions, and equations [Handwritten notes] (2007-01-28)

• Classical and PK simulation (2007-01-28, spreadsheet)

• Structure of heterodox dynamics (2007-01-26, handwritten notes)

• Macro notes (2007-01-25, handwritten notes)

• Handwritten notes on savings [Handwritten notes] (undated)

• EJN policy Harrod paper (2005-11-30, handwritten notes)

• Summary of Ruggles and Ruggles on savings rates (2007-01-07, document including graphs) — based on Nancy & Ruggles, R. (1992). Household and enterprise saving and capital formation in the United States: A market transactions view. Review of Income and Wealth, 38(2), 119–163.

• Miscellaneous handwritten notes …

  ---

  Go to article

Harrod Text 2.06, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Outline for a lecture based on the paper Economic policy in a growth context: A synthesis of Keynes and Harrod (2005-10-17)

• Handwritten notes on growth theories [Handwritten notes] (2006-05-25)

• Notes on Harrod-Godley synthesis [Handwritten notes] (undated)

• Concluding remarks on Economic policy in a growth context discussing Robinson’s objection and employment issues [Handwritten notes] (2005-11-30)

Competition, Red, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Eichner, A. S. (1976). Wholesale prices in oligopolistic and competitive industries, 1965–73. In The megacorp and oligopoly: Micro foundations of macro dynamics (graph). M.E. Sharpe.

• Concentration and industry profit rates (1979-05, document, two copies)

• Average and incremental profit rates: US and OECD (2000-11, document)

• Average and incremental profit rates: US and OECD, including figures for world data (2000-11, document)

• Empirical evidence & Marx's theory of competition (1982-04-06, handwritten notes)

• Theory of wages & competition (1989-10-27, handwritten notes)

• Competition of capitals (1982-03-25, handwritten notes)

• Concept of competition in economics (1981-12-08, handwritten notes)

• Marx on competition (undated, handwritten notes) …

  ---

  Go to article

Competition (Marxian And Perfect Comp.), Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Marxian competition & the theory of the firm (1982-06-24, handwritten notes)

• Handwritten notes discussing Ernest Mandel’s data on profit rates across nations, with pages from a related document (1979-05, handwritten notes)

• Perfect competition & Marxian competition (undated, handwritten notes)

• Handwritten notes contrasting radical and orthodox views on competition [Handwritten notes] (undated)

• Econ 305: Variations in profit rates and margins in large-scale industries (1984-02-23, handwritten notes)

Harrodian Growth With Exog. Dd, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Classical accumulation function (2004-07-01, notes)

• Graphs showing nominal shares of GDP components (2001-11-16)

• Short run & long run: How long? (2003-10-21, handwritten notes)

• Handwritten notes on macroeconomic modeling [Handwritten notes] (undated)

• ECO 208: K/K vs Harrod (2001-06-13, handwritten notes)

• Macrodynamics: References (2000-12-19, reference list for Econ 204)

• Economic policy in a growth context: A synthesis of Keynes and Harrod (2001-05-27, outline)

• Handwritten outline on synthesizing Keynes and Harrod [Handwritten outline] (undated)

• Dynamics of adjustment: SR & LR (2001-03-30, handwritten notes)

• Handwritten notes discussing Kalecki’s 1962 paper [Handwritten notes] (1986-01-17)

• Handwritten notes discussing differential equations related to growth …

  ---

  Go to article

Notes On Expectations, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Global stability of classical model w dynamic expectations (2001-01-04, handwritten notes)

• Expectations and moving targets (2001-01-04, handwritten notes)

• Handwritten notes discussing planned output, investment, production, and expected demand [Handwritten notes] (2000-12-22)

• Handwritten notes on the savings rate with taxes [Handwritten notes] (2001-03-29)

• Handwritten notes on adaptive input models, expectations, classical closure, and Harrodian closure [Handwritten notes] (undated)

• Handwritten notes on the paradox of SR equilibrium [Handwritten notes] (undated)

• Diagram and notes related to demand expectations [Handwritten diagram and notes] (undated)

• Classical (undated, handwritten notes discussing demand expectation models)

• Adaptive expectations (2001-04-10, handwritten notes, two copies)

• Handwritten notes …

  ---

  Go to article

The Columbus Promise: Year Two Evaluation Report, Michelle Miller-Adams, Kevin Hollenbeck, Bridget Timmeney, Kyle Huisman

Reports

No abstract provided.

Outline Of Lecture Of Bibliograph - Real Competition, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• ROR on investment & ROR on capital (1997-04-20, handwritten notes)

• Shaikh, A. (2000-11). Average and incremental profit rates: US and OECD, including figures for world and US manufacturing (document)

• Fig. 36: Real incremental profit rate (2002-11-06, graph with related handwritten notes)

• Competition and Luxemburg on competition (1983-01-04, handwritten notes including quotes from R. Luxemburg’s The accumulation of capital)

• Competition of capitals (1978-05-03, handwritten notes including a quote from K. Marx’s Capital, Vol. III)

• Structural patterns within the theory of real competition (2001-10-31, document)

• Eco 205, Spring 1979 (1978-05-23, handwritten notes)

• ROP + market prices in …

  ---

  Go to article

Labor Process And Choice Of Technology, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Email thread with Jesús Felipe regarding competition theory (2002-12-10)

• Capitalization & unit costs (1992-01-12, handwritten notes)

• Okishio theorem (1977-11-14, handwritten notes)

• Competition, choice of technique & formation of prices of production (undated, handwritten notes)

• Competition & wage differentials (1986-10-28, handwritten notes)

• Profit & luxury goods sector (critique of the Sraffian results) (1987-07-17, handwritten notes)

• Nakatani, T. (1979). Price competition and technical choice. Kobe University Economic Review, 25, 25–42.

• Price competition – luxury goods (1983-05-13, handwritten notes)

• Cost-cutting & prices of production: Real wages & FROP (1983-05-10, handwritten notes)

• Weston, J. F., & Brigham, E. F. (1982). …

  ---

  Go to article

Competition, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Gaither, C. (2001, July 11). Technology: Market place; Despite cost-cutting, Compaq is facing declining earnings and sales.

• An empirical comparison of Dept. I and Dept. II, for the U.S. (1982-Spring, handwritten notes, including tables and charts)

• Market value (1986-02, document discussing Marx)

• Profit margin and profit rate in Marx's theory of competition (1984-02, handwritten notes)

• Competition within an industry (1989-02-08, handwritten notes)

• Ochoa, E. (1983-11). The empirical strength of the labor theory of value (document including data tables and figures)

• Summary of iterative procedure in prices of production (1990-06-26, document)

• Mexico I: Lecture 2 (1981-06-02, handwritten lecture …

  ---

  Go to article

21st Century Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve From The Great Inflation To Covid-19, Greg Arburn

The Journal of Economics and Politics

No abstract provided.

Profit Shifting And Tax Avoidance: Evidence From Us Multinational Enterprises, Dimitris Giakoulas, Kostas Gemenis, Nikolaos Daskalakis

The Journal of Economics and Politics

In this paper, we investigate tax avoidance of MNEs through profit shifting to tax havens. Using macro data from US MNEs, we analyze at the host country level where US affiliates book their profits and where their actual production activities take place. We find that the effect of the corporate tax on excess profits is conditional on whether the host country is considered to be a tax haven. Among tax haven host countries, a difference of 1% in the corporate tax is associated with a change of 8-15% in excess profits, while the relationship between corporate tax and excess profits …

What About The Buyers? Deriving Factors Of Demand In The U.S. Black Market, Eric S. Schneider

Undergraduate Theses

The vast majority of econometric research regarding black markets focuses on the supply. Relatively little information is definitively shown in academic literature regarding the drivers of demand for black markets. This project seeks to identify factors of demand for black market goods and services. First, this paper gives a brief definition of the broad definition of black markets, before specifically defining the scope of individual markets which will be included in this project. Next, there is a brief review of recent literature on the U.S. black market in order to determine prime candidates for factors of demand. Then, a robust …

Trade Openness And Spatial Inequality In Developing Countries: Case Study Of Asean-4, Rosalia Marcha Violeta, Vedy Ardine Sahetapy, Garda Maharsi, Mohamad Dian Revindo

Jurnal Kebijakan Ekonomi

Trade openness is widely associated with stronger medium- to-long-term economic growth, yet its distributional consequences within countries, particularly in developing economies, remain contested. This paper examines the relationship between trade openness and spatial inequality in four major ASEAN economies, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines, over the period 2012–2019. Spatial inequality is measured using Theil’s Index based on provincial-level GDP per capita, while trade openness is proxied by the trade-to-GDP ratio. Employing pooled OLS and fixed-effects estimations, the analysis controls for key structural factors such as economic development, population size, urbanization, government expenditure, and the number of spatial units. The …

Dampak Program Padat Karya Tunai Desa (Cash-For-Work) Terhadap Kriminalitas Desa Di Jawa Timur, Bella M. Sabrina, Evi Y. Purwanti

Jurnal Kebijakan Ekonomi

High crime rates in rural areas indicate development inequality and low welfare. The government initiated the Padat Karya Tunai Desa Program (Cash-for-Work) to improve welfare by providing employment. Using the Difference-in-Difference method with 2018 and 2021 PODES data from 7,721 villages in East Java, this study analyzes the impact of the PKTD Program and socio-economic factors on crime using three measures: total crime types, theft, and violence. Results show that the Cash-for-Work program does not reduce total crime types and violence, but has the potential to reduce theft. The number of poor-family increases crime, while the number of micro-industries reduces …

Evaluating The Current State Of Quality Measure Reporting In The Merit-Based Incentive Payment System, Kinan Sawar, Geoffrey Potts Md

Medical Student Research Symposium

The Merit-Based Incentive Payment System (MIPS) requires physicians to report quality measures along with other metrics that are used to determine an annual percentage adjustment to physician Medicare Part B payments. Unfortunately, physicians have been forced to choose from an ineffective, limited set of quality measures. This has led to an overreliance on process measures, which fail to stratify physician performance effectively; it has also led to differences in the number of reporting options across specialties, resulting in unequal opportunity for physicians to succeed in MIPS. Using Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) public use file data from 2021-2024, …

A Geospatial Approach To Measuring Economic Activity, Anton Yang, Jianwei Ai, Costas Arkolakis

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We introduce a new methodology to detect and measure economic activity using geospatial data and apply it to steel production, a major industrial pollution source worldwide. Combining plant output data with geospatial data, such as ambient air pollutants, nighttime lights, and temperature, we train machine learning models to predict plant locations and output. We identify about 40% (70%) of plants missing from the training sample within a 1 km (5 km) radius and achieve R² above 0.8 for output prediction at a 1 km grid and at the plant level, as well as for both regional and time series …

The Role Of Gender Equity In Olympic Success Using Panel Data, Anusha Khan

Honors Projects in Mathematics and Economics

This study investigates whether gender equity is one of the determinants of Olympic success at the country level. Using panel data with 766 observations from six Olympic years (2012–2022), it examines the relationship between gender equity and national medal counts. Three Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) models were estimated using total, men’s, and women’s medal counts as dependent variables. While the findings vary across models, results suggest that gender equity may be positively associated with Olympic performance, though its significance is limited when controlling for other social and economic variables.

The Pitch Clock's Impacts On The Game Of Baseball, Cole Ricciarelli

Honors Projects in Mathematics and Economics

Past research has investigated what on-field statistics have impacted the success of MLB teams. However, this paper aims to look at the effect that the recent rule change of the pitch clock has on the win percentage of MLB teams. With the implementation of the pitch clock, it was expected that teams with a lower average pitch time would see more success. Using data from the 2013-2024 seasons, statistical analysis was run to determine which variables impacted team win percentage the most. It was found that average pitch times of pitchers did not play a significant role in overall team …