Economics Commons^™

Essays On Financial Econometrics, Yuexuan Ren

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation consists of two papers that contribute to the theory of estimation, inference, and prediction using high-frequency financial data. In the first chapter, time-varying betas from return regressions, commonly used to measure systematic financial market risk, are studied using high-frequency data. A novel econometric framework is introduced for the nonparametric estimation of these betas. The optimal finite-sample inference, in a well-defined sense, is enabled by the local Gaussian property of a generic continuous-time benchmark model under the fixed-k framework. Furthermore, a uniform functional inference theory for spot regressions is developed. The proposed methodology is broadly applicable in empirical settings, …

Leveraging Data Analytics For Enchanced Economics Prediction: A Study Of Predictive Models And Economics Indicators, Janelle Rueda

Electronic Theses, Projects, and Dissertations

The purpose of this project is intended to investigate the lack of use of data analytics in predicting and managing the impacts of economic crises. This project investigates what economic key factors can be used to create a framework model and evaluate the effectiveness of the key economic indicator being tested as early warning signs. The project uses programs such as Excel, RStudio, and Tableau for the collection of historical data, and regression analysis to determine if certain economic indicators have a statistically significant correlation with GDP, that may help enforce systems in place to help us mitigate economic crises …

The Effect Of Employment Shocks On Earnings: Evidence From The Covid-19 Pandemic, Giovanny A. Martinez Rodriguez

Economics Honors Projects

Economic research has documented significant short, medium, and long-term labor market consequences following recessions (Goodman & Mance, 2011; Yagan, 2017; Farber, 2011). The Covid-19 recession triggered an unprecedented economic downturn, disproportionately impacting employment in industries with high concentrations of low-income and female workers. In this paper, I leverage the substantial spatial variation in employment shocks to examine their effects on earnings and employment outcomes in both the short and medium terms. I find remarkably stable trends in earnings and employment when comparing counties experiencing high employment shocks with those that did not. Although these results differ from previous recessions, they …

Essays On Spatial Economics And International Trade, Yunlong Song

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation consists of two chapters that study the China’s spatial economy in the context of heterogenous skill workers, local capital investment, and foreign direct investment (FDI). The first chapter studies how production factor accumulations in space respond to economic shocks or events, and how those responses modify the aggregate and distributional impacts of shocks. To examine their responses and implications, we develop a dynamic spatial model that incorporates capital accumulation and skill acquisition. Focusing on China’s trade liberalization and infrastructure expansion in the early 2000s, we show that allowing for capital accumulation amplifies welfare gains and intensifies between-skill inequality, …

Is Subjective Well-Being Insured Against Income Shocks? Evidence From 20-Year Panel Data In South Korea, Jiyeon An, Taehyun Ahn, Kim

Research Collection School Of Economics

Using 20 years of nationally representative panel data in South Korea, we estimate how life satisfaction responds to income shocks. We document that unexpected income changes significantly impact an individual's life satisfaction, and the magnitudes depend on the persistence of income shocks. We find that permanent income shocks substantially penetrate life satisfaction, while transitory income shocks have minimal impact. We also find that life satisfaction regarding external factors such as family income and leisure activities is more sensitive to income shocks than life satisfaction related to social relationships. Our findings imply that it is critical for the government to address …

Strategizing Towards The Future Hospital: A Systems Thinking Approach, Ashish Kumar, Sean Shao Wei Lam, Sze Ling Chan, Yingqi Xu, Yao Ge, Geoffrey Kah Tack Gui, Hiang Khoon Tan

Research Collection School Of Economics

Background: The complex systemic nature of Future Hospital design in the rapidly ageing city-state of Singapore calls for systems thinking. We apply this approach to answer two research questions: (i) What are the variables that drive the present and future dynamics of the Future Hospital system? (ii) How are these driving variables related? Methods: Causal loop diagrams (CLDs) were developed collaboratively by a cross-functional system modelling team through group modelling discussions and reviews, totalling 20 sessions. Network analysis of the resulting CLDs was used to identify dominant variables. Results: Seven interlocking CLDs (national view, cluster view, and study hospital top …

Valuation Of Crypto Assets On Blockchain With Deep Learning Approach, Xi Zhou, Yin Pang, Esther Ying Yang, Jing Rong Goh, Shaun Shuxun Wang

Research Collection School Of Economics

With the rapid expansion of the blockchain ecosystem, crypto asset valuation has become an essential area of study for investors and institutions. Here, we introduce a deep learning framework that was designed to predict the value index of crypto assets by integrating intrinsic value variables and decomposing market prices into value and sentiment components. The Crypto Asset Value-indexing Model (CAVM) was applied to Ethereum’s cryptocurrency ETH to demonstrate its effectiveness. Four econometric tests were conducted to verify the informativeness, predictiveness, and reasonability of the generated value indices, as well as the efficiency of price decomposition. Our findings suggested that the …

Limit Theory For Local Polynomial Estimation Of Functional Coefficient Models With Possibly Integrated Regressors, Ying Wang, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

Limit theory for functional coefficient cointegrating regression was recently found to be considerably more complex than earlier understood. The issues were explained and correct limit theory derived for the kernel weighted local level estimator in Phillips and Wang (2023b). The present paper provides complete limit theory for the general kernel weighted local th order polynomial estimators of the functional coefficient and the coefficient derivatives. Both stationary and nonstationary regressors are allowed. Implications for bandwidth selection are discussed. An adaptive procedure to select the fit order  is proposed and found to work well. A robust -ratio is constructed following the new …

Borders And Burdens: Three Essays On Inter-Jurisdictional Tax Policy In America, Benjamin Jaros

All Dissertations

Individuals, firms, and governments make decisions about the tradeoffs of different tax policies at jurisdictional borders, such as those between states, nations, or local governments; those choices shape the burden of taxation. This dissertation examines the effects of three distinct changes in tax policy: for state corporate income tax apportionment, colonial tobacco tariffs, and tax abatements for data centers. Chapter 1 examines how changes to the corporate income tax base formula affect state tax revenues. Chapter 2 analyzes how colonial era export and import tariffs on tobacco impacted trade volumes, raised revenue, and the distribution of the tax burden between …

The Association Between Economic Outcomes And Abortion: A Scoping Review, Larisa Nicole Stephenson

Capstone Experience: Master of Public Health

Background: Abortion access is not just an issue of autonomy, but an economic issue as well. Evidence of the intersectionality of abortion health care and economics has endured due to the financial cascading effects a denial of an abortion, or the inability to access an abortion, has on one’s personal, professional, and economic upward mobility. A change in recent policies impacting access to abortion warrants an updated synthesis examining the relationships between economic outcomes and abortion access for people of reproductive age in the United States (U.S.).

Aim: This scoping review summarizes evidence pertaining to the association …

2024 Estimates - Nonresident Visitation, Expenditures, And Economic Contribution, Kara Grau

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

This report is a collection of estimates of 2024 nonresident visitation to Montana, expenditures by nonresident travelers in the state, and the contribution to Montana's economy of that traveler spending. Included are estimates by full year, quarter, trip purpose, and other visitor segments.

Montana Residents' Attitudes Towards Tourism - 2024, Carter Bermingham, Megan Schultz, Matthew Pettigrew, Jayce Beck

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

A summary of Montana residents' attitudes towards tourism from the 2024 season. Overall, results from this study show that, in general, Montana residents hold a positive yet balanced attitude towards tourism within the state. For example, a majority of residents feel that the benefits of tourism outweigh the negative impacts, while also being in strong agreement that tourism promotion by the state provides an economic benefit to their community. At the same time, over 40% of respondents felt that the state was becoming overcrowded because of the number of tourists, while close to half felt that their community was dealing …

The Montana Travel Industry - 2024 Summary, Melissa Weddell

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

2024 summary infographic of the Montana travel and recreation industry.

Harnessing Data To Shape Montana's Tourism Narrative – 2024 Montana Governor's Conference, Melissa Weddell, Kara Grau, Megan Schultz

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

No abstract provided.

Montana Hot Springs 2024 – Insights From Mobile Location Data, Kika Bradford

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

Research note presenting insights into activity at Montana’s commercial hot springs based on mobile location data. Drawing from data provided by Azira and visualized through Rove dashboards, the analysis reveals seasonal trends, average visitor stay durations, peak visiting times, and more.

The Perry-Campbell Collection: An Analysis Of Byzantine And Roman Coins, Samuel A. Skokan

Department of Anthropology: Theses and Student Research

The Anthropology Collections of the Nebraska State Museum are home of the Gladys G. Perry Campbell and Iain Colin Gordon Campbell (I. C. G. Campbell) coin collection, which consists of an estimated 4,000 coins that date between the 1^st century BC to the 15th century AD. The collection consists of bronze coins (91%+) and billon (alloy) coins that represent low-denomination currency of the Roman and Byzantine Empires. There are approximately 3,200 Byzantine and 750 Roman coins. This study focused solely on the Byzantine coins of the Collection, to document their chronological range and research value. The collection can support …

Understanding Pre-Harvest Hedging Behavior And Basis Forecasting: The Role Of Information In Grain Marketing, Iyore Eronmwon

Dissertations and Doctoral Documents, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, 2023–

This dissertation examines decision-making under risk in grain marketing, focusing on how information influences behavior, attitudes toward accessible information, and methods for forecasting commodity basis. Through three essays, it explores the impact of information on hedging decisions, the determinants of information-seeking behavior, the extent to which students can serve as proxies for farmers in risk experiments, and the effectiveness of different forecasting approaches for commodity basis.

The first essay examines the impact of information on pre-harvest grain marketing hedging decisions and grain marketing information-seeking behavior. Specifically, it evaluates two types of information hypothesized to influence decision-making: expected cost of production …

Unintended Consequences: How Direct Cash Payments To Families Experiencing Poverty Lowered Child Poverty Rates In The United States, Wayne Dunn

Electronic Theses, Projects, and Dissertations

Child poverty has adverse effects for the children who experience it and it has long term social and economic consequences into adulthood. This policy analysis looks at the policy choices America has made in addressing child poverty and what effects, if any, those policies have had. After reviewing traditional in-kind policy options for addressing child poverty, this article focuses on the decreases in the child poverty rate that occurred with the passage of pandemic era legislation that provided direct cash assistance to all Americans. Because the assistance programs only happened in two consecutive years and were terminated at the end …

Understanding Household Financial Stability: Examining The Effects Of Inflation And Income, Cyndy E. Gutierrez-Fierros

Electronic Theses, Projects, and Dissertations

This study aims to investigate the impact of inflation on US household financial stability from 2013 to 2023. As inflation rises, individuals’ purchasing power erodes leading to influence economic behaviors. Behaviors such as spending, saving, and borrowing should be a priority concern in the US economy. Results of this study reveal that inflation does not affect financial well-being and its direct impact on household stability is statistically weak. Regression testing shows that income emerges as the most significant factor. Most noticeably income influences savings and debt management in a positive way. As per these results, economic policies should be focused …

Missing Piece Of The Pie: Public Expenditure On Education In Colombia, Ashante Gallimore

Economics

Public expenditure on education in Colombia is a crucial driver of socioeconomic development, with government investments that are aimed at improving access, quality, and equity across all levels of education. This thesis examines how these funds are distributed by analyzing whether financial resources are concentrated in wealthier areas or equitably distributed between wealthier and less fortunate Colombian regions. Using a comparative qualitative analysis, this study examines the sources of educational funding, the decision-making processes behind allocation, and how schools make use of their resources. A particular focus is on why primary education receives a larger share of funding compared to …

Tba Trading And Security Issuance In The Agency Mbs Market, Yu An, Wei Li, Zhaogang Song

Research Collection Lee Kong Chian School Of Business

In addition to the standard individual-security-based specified pool (SP) contract, agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are actively traded via the to-be-announced (TBA) contract that sets a uniform price for a cohort of heterogeneous securities. We provide empirical support for the economic impact of TBA trading on MBS issuers' security design: issuers pick low-quality loans and pool them together into few TBA MBS. We then conduct a quantitative analysis and show that TBA-trading-induced strategic MBS design increases issuers' selling revenue by about 55% of the SP transaction costs. Finally, we show that smaller issuers are less able to package low-quality loans separately …

The Impact Of Nafta On Prices And Competition: Evidence From Mexican Manufacturing Plants, Felipe Brugués, Ayumu Ken Kikkawa, Yuan Mei, Pablo Robles

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper assesses the impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement on Mexican manufacturing plants’ output prices and markups. We distinguish between Mexican goods that are exported and those sold domestically, and decompose their prices separately into markups and marginal costs. We then analyze how these components were affected by the reductions in Mexican output tariffs, intermediate input tariffs, and U.S. tariffs on Mexican exports. We find that domestically sold products saw a decline in prices as Mexican plants faced more competition and gained access to cheaper inputs. Prices of exported goods fell only slightly as plants increased their …

Sustainable Agricultural Practices And Societal Impacts: A Case Study In Central Belize, Lily Hunt

Economics Undergraduate Honors Theses

This thesis examines the relationship between climate change, sustainable agriculture, and rural development through a case study in Central Belize. Built from observations, interviews, and academic research gathered during a summer internship with the Belize Ministry of Agriculture, the research explores the challenges small farmers face as they navigate worsening climate threats - including drought, wildfire, and resource scarcity. With climate change accelerating at a faster rate in Belize than in many other countries, agricultural resilience has become a national priority. This internship focused on collecting applications for the Sustainable and Inclusive Belize Program, a government initiative that provides financial …

Rebuilding The American Dream: Understanding And Alleviating First-Time Home Buyer Affordability Challenges In Northwest Arkansas, Samuel R. Butler

Economics Undergraduate Honors Theses

Homeownership is a cornerstone of the American Dream. It is linked to numerous socioeconomic benefits such as social cohesion, civic engagement, imbalance in opportunities, education, and public health. However, in recent years, housing affordability across the nation and in Northwest Arkansas has become challenging.

Part I of this thesis explains the importance of homeownership nationally and the deteriorating conditions of first-time homebuyers. It explains the key drivers of housing affordability over time, and it explains the connection between zoning and affordability.

Part II focuses on the housing market in Northwest Arkansas (NWA). I forecast the NWA housing demand, which highlights …

Spillover Effects Of Foreign Direct Investment Within Japan's Industries, Kenshi Kawade

Economics Undergraduate Honors Theses

This thesis investigates the relationship between inward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Total Factor Productivity (TFP) across Japanese industries to evaluate FDI’s potential for economic revitalization in Japan. Despite policy efforts under Abenomics to attract more FDI, Japan continues to lag behind other developed economies in foreign investment levels, hindered by structural barriers such as keiretsu networks and limited absorptive capacity. Using industry-level panel data from 1994 to 2018, this study applies Granger causality tests and panel regression models to examine the direction and magnitude of FDI spillovers on productivity. The results indicate a one-way causal effect from FDI to …

The Switch: Determinants Of Family School Modality Choices During The Covid-19 Pandemic, Steicy Dorfi Lopez

Economics Undergraduate Honors Theses

The K-12 system in the United States experienced substantial challenges during the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aims to give an overview of public, private, and homeschooling enrollment decisions during the pandemic, the changes families made between types of schooling and identify familial characteristics associated with the probability of switching in and out of public education. Knowing more about the groups exiting and returning to the public school system can help public school districts better tailor policies to attract and retain their students. Socioeconomic factors influencing a change could be signs of increasing segregation. Using a discrete choice duration model, a …

Outtakes, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Handwritten notes discussing methodology and the capitalist system

• Handwritten notes titled Introduction

• Handwritten notes outlining Parts II and III of a book, covering topics such as circulation, accumulation, competition, wages, crises, state intervention, and the relation between Marxian and empirical categories

Drafts, Outtakes Ch. 2, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Annotated draft page discussing monopoly capital, Kautsky, and Bernstein (p. 4)

• Another annotated draft page discussing monopoly capital, Kautsky, and Bernstein (p. 4)

• Draft pages discussing monopoly capital, crises, imperialism, and Hilferding (pp. 5-7)

• Draft pages titled From Marx's Capital to modern Marxism (January 3, 1984) (pp. 1-3)

• Draft pages discussing Marx's planned works and the transition from Capital to modern Marxism (pp. 21-23)

• Draft pages from Chapter 2 A brief history of Marxist theory covering philosophy, political economy, and Capital (pp. 1-4)

• Draft page discussing the French Revolution (p. …

Book, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Handwritten notes on inter-war Marxist economics

• Handwritten notes titled Personal history: Luxemburg

• Handwritten notes titled Cycles/Crises: Luxemburg (August 1984)

• Handwritten notes titled Reform/Revol./State: Luxemburg (August 1984)

• Handwritten notes titled Argument on the collapse of capitalism

• Handwritten notes titled Imperialism: Luxemburg (August 1984)

• Letter to Diego (July 16, 1993)

• Letter to Diego (duplicate) (July 16, 1993)

• Handwritten notes titled Role of DD in Marx & Orthodox Eco (October 13, 1991)

• Handwritten notes titled Book notes: Part I (October 18, 1991)

• Handwritten notes titled Book comment: Part I …

Book (Luxemburg), Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Document titled Ch 2B5A: Introduction to Luxemburg (February 20, 1985)

• Handwritten notes titled Luxemburg (February 2, 1985)

• Handwritten notes on Nettl's work on Luxemburg

• Handwritten notes titled Luxemburg on investment plans & expected demand (January 7, 1985)

• Handwritten notes titled Kalecki as 'modern' version of Rosa Luxemburg

• Handwritten notes titled Accumulation, plans & objective tendencies (September 19, 1984)

• Handwritten notes titled Notes Luxemburg's anti-critique (January 14, 1985)

• Handwritten notes on Luxemburg and Harrod instability (January 14, 1985)

• Handwritten notes titled Mechanics of Luxemburg instability (January 14, 1985)

• …