Economics Commons^™

Local Overidentification And Efficiency Gains In Modern Causal Inference And Data Combination, Xiaohong Chen, Haitian Xie

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This paper studies nonparametric local (over-)identification, in the sense of Chen and Santos (2018), and the associated semiparametric efficiency in modern causal frameworks. We develop a unified approach that begins by translating structural models with latent variables into their induced statistical models of observables and then analyzes local overidentification through conditional moment restrictions. We apply this approach to three leading models: (i) the general treatment model under unconfoundedness, (ii) the negative control model, and (iii) the long-term causal inference model under unobserved confounding. The first design yields a locally just-identified statistical model, implying that all regular asymptotically linear estimators of …

How Fair Workweek Laws Affect Labor Markets: A New York City Case Study, Joseph Pickens, Aaron Sojourner

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.

Ten Lessons In Public–Private Partnerships To Create Good Jobs, Kathleen Bolter, Timothy J. Bartik, Brad J. Hershbein, Michelle Miller-Adams, Alfonso Hernandez, Kyle Huisman, Bridget Timmeney

Reports

No abstract provided.

Sustainable Consumption Under Structural Constraint: Insights From Indigenous Communities On The Great Plains, Glen Marshall, Rand Wergin

Mountain Plains Business Conference

Resource-constrained communities, particularly Indigenous and remote communities, remain critically understudied in the business literature despite persistent socioeconomic challenges. This study employs a mixed-methods approach to explore barriers to sustainable consumption in these resource-limited contexts. It examines consumer attitudes toward sustainability and identifies key barriers to sustainable consumption. Understanding these barriers is crucial for entrepreneurs seeking profitable and socially beneficial ventures, as well as for policymakers designing social or economic initiatives. This research provides actionable insights for tribal governments, business professionals, policymakers, and others seeking to promote sustainable economic growth, community health, and positive externalities in underserved communities.

Credit Union Member Benefits: Does Local Religiosity Matter?, Travis Davidson, Thanh Ngo, Hongxia Wang

Finance and Economics

We examine the impact of religiosity on credit union member benefits and document a positive association between local religiosity and member benefits. Members of credit unions in more religious counties enjoy lower interest rates on loans, higher interest rates on deposits, and consequently lower interest spreads. The effect varies by credit union types, and results suggest a stronger association between religiosity and member benefits for credit unions with a narrower field of membership. Further analysis indicates local religiosity is associated with improved operating performance, lower non-interest expenses, and higher quality earning assets, but increased liquidity risk. The results are robust …

If We Tear It Down, We Might Build You A New One: The Troublesome Use Of Eminent Domain And Urban Neighborhood Swimming Pools, Steven N. Waller Ph.D., James H. Bemiller

International Journal of Aquatic Research and Education

Public swimming pools are a vital part of America’s recreation and sport culture since the early 1900’s. Municipal swimming pools were initially built to provide recreation and hygiene to urban communities, regardless of race or class. However, a complex history of segregation, civil unrest, suburbanization, and funding challenges has resulted in a significant decline in public pools, depriving many communities of vital recreational spaces. In many communities, options for sustaining the operation of swimming pools have resulted in pool closures. Unfortunately, once swimming pools close, especially those in aging neighborhoods in central city areas, they are seldom resurrected. They quickly …

U.S. Water Infrastructure: Diving Into Needs And Recent Policy Developments, Joseph Kane

Brookings Scholar Lecture Series

As part of the Brookings Scholar Lecture Series, Brookings Mountain West presents a lecture titled, "U.S. Water Infrastructure: Diving Into Needs and Recent Policy Developments" by Brookings fellow in Brookings Metro, Joseph Kane. Whether providing drinking water, treating wastewater, or managing stormwater, water infrastructure in the United States spans a wide range of human-made and natural systems. In turn, the enormous scale and variety of these systems is leading to an array of challenges: aging and vulnerable infrastructure; fragmented governance and siloed planning across different geographies; a lack of financial, technical, and managerial capacity; difficulties adapting to new industrial and …

China’S Turn To Domestic-Led Growth: Replacing Consumption Taxes With Land Taxes?, Yilin Hou, Michael Kumhof, Lei Shao

Center for Policy Research

As part of its turn towards domestic-led growth China plans to stimulate consumption, including through a reduction in consumption taxes. We compare two model-based scenarios in which the revenue losses from lower consumption taxes are replaced by higher income taxes or higher land taxes. The model is carefully calibrated to recent Chinese data, including detailed fiscal data. We find that higher income taxes lead to significant losses in output and incomes, while higher land taxes lead to significant gains. These gains are increasing in the share of land in net wealth, a statistic for which better data would be invaluable.

Learning About Stability Of Risk Preferences, Levon Barseghyan, Francesca Molinari, Joshua C. Teitelbaum

Georgetown Law Faculty Publications and Other Works

Classical theories posit that risk preferences are stable across decision contexts. Two branches of empirical literature assess this claim. Structural approaches examine within-person consistency of model-based estimates of risk aversion, while “model-free” approaches examine within-person correlations of risky choices. We elucidate the latent structure underlying the model-free approach. Using this structure, we develop a new approach to assessing preference stability that has stronger testable implications, and we partially identify features of stability and heterogeneity of risk preferences. Our study illustrates a general principle: partial identification through minimal assumptions grounded in economic theory robustly bridges fully structural and model-free methods.

Indiana At A Glance: County Trends, 2025 Edition, Roberto Gallardo

Purdue University Press Books

Indiana at a Glance: County Trends, 2025 Edition provides an overview of macro socioeconomic and demographic trends based on county-level data in ten-year periods in Indiana, the upper Midwest region, and the nation. Analyzing data primarily from 2013 through 2023, this book presents information that contextualizes the design and implementation of specific policies enacted by elected officials and community leaders, and reveals the impact these initiatives have on the public.

Inspired, in part, by the United States Department of Agriculture’s Rural America at a Glance reports, as well as the author’s more than twenty years of work in the field, …

Diaper Insecurity In Nevada And The Mountain West, 2024, Mia Tschan, Olivia K. Cheche, William E. Brown Jr.

Health

This fact sheet presents data on diaper insecurity in the Mountain West states of Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. It also presents data on the diaper gaps faced by fifteen Nevada counties: Carson City, Churchill, Clark, Douglas, Elko, Humboldt, Lander, Lincoln, Lyon, Mineral, Nye, Pershing, Storey, Washoe, and White Pine. Esmeralda County and Eureka County are not included due to a lack of data. The 2025 Urban Institute report, “Mapping Diaper Insecurity in the US,” highlights 2024 data on diaper insecurity across all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia.

Coordination In Time, Lars Boerner, Erik O. Kimbrough, Mouli Modak

ESI Working Papers

We study how well people are able to solve pure coordination problems in continuous time. Subjects decide whether and when to pay a cost to go to market with their goods and earn money only if another person shows up at the same time. We show that coordination failure is common in a baseline, and we introduce treatments that feature public coordination devices (meant to mimic clocks) and assess the extent to which coordination improves when such devices are provided via different institutions. A publicly provided device outperforms a variety of privately provided alternatives. Our evidence suggests this is because …

Heteroskedastic Ordered Probit Models With An Artificial Neural Network For Predicting Potential Consumer Ratings On Amazon Software Reviews, Jikhan Jeong

Economics Faculty Research & Creative Works

The ordered probit model is widely used to make inferences about ordinal dependent variables in the social sciences, while neural network models have proven effective for classification tasks across various domains. Although other scholars have proposed ordinal classification models using neural networks, empirical studies combining ordered probit models with neural networks remain limited. To date, no studies have examined ordered probit models with neural networks under the assumption of heteroskedasticity. Accordingly, this paper demonstrates the predictive performance of an ordered probit model with an artificial neural network (OPANN) using different activation functions. In addition, it introduces a newly developed heteroskedastic …

Climate Shocks And State Formation: The 1970 Bhola Cyclone And The Birth Of Bangladesh, Sultan Mehmood, Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak

Discussion Papers

State formation through secession often requires two critical steps: building mass support for independence, and engaging in violent conflict against a state resisting territorial loss. Combining satellite data with archival sources, we statistically document how exposure to the 1970 Bhola cyclone in East Pakistan which killed 350,000 people led to a rise in separatist sentiments expressed in voting booths, and later induced citizens to take up arms against the government and engage in guerrilla warfare. We identify the cyclone as a focal point that helped galvanize dispersed separatist sentiments into an organized political movement and war, in part by revealing …

China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Talks, Speeches, & Discourse

China has emerged as an economic power house of the 21st Century and is the largest exporting nation of the World and the second biggest economy. The remarkable achievement of GDP per head growing 17 times between 1980-2014 and lifting more than 800 million out of poverty is a feat unprecedented in human history. It would be pertinent to recall that not very far in time i.e. 1980, per capita income of China was lower than that of both India and Pakistan and since then now it has become an economic powerhouse. Realizing its importance as a leading economic power, …

Pakistan’S Experience With The Imf, 2000–2004, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Talks, Speeches, & Discourse

Pakistan’s relationship with the IMF during the 2000 – 2004 period was quite unique and distinctive. Unlike the earlier eight agreements that were concluded with the IMF during 1988-99 and were never implemented beyond the first tranche release it was only in this period that two successive agreements – a nine month Stand-by Arrangement (SBA) in the year 2000 followed by a three year Poverty Reduction and Growth Facility (PRGF) were successfully completed. All the sixteen reviews by IMF staff were completed and eleven successive tranches were drawn on time without any extension or interruption. The last two tranches were …

Positioning Domestic Capital Markets For Emerging Companies, Ishrat Husain Dr.

Faculty Research - Talks, Speeches, & Discourse

The current macroeconomic context is not very conducive to the growth of capital markets. Stagnant per capita incomes, high inflation, declining investment, large fiscal deficit, severe energy shortages, current account imbalances and drying up of foreign investment do not provide an appetizing menu of options for the savers, investors and issuers. Strong borrowing needs of the government have increased banks’ exposure to government paper. As banks account for 95 percent of the total financial assets private sector credit has there shrunk. The share of net advances has dropped from 57 percent to 44 percent between Dec 2008 and June 2011. …

The Effect Of Renewable Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, And Energy Use On Co₂ Emissions In Indonesia: An Ardl Analysis, Raihan Ahmad Mustofa, Mariam Kamila, Rininta Nurrachmi, Syifa Shafnastiara

Jurnal Kebijakan Ekonomi

Abstract This study examines the dynamic relationship between renewable energy consumption, total energy use, economic growth, and CO₂ emissions in Indonesia over the period 1990–2021 using an ARDL approach. The results show a stable long-run relationship with quick adjustment after shocks. In the long run, energy consumption is associated with higher CO₂ emissions, reflecting the continued dominance of fossil fuels. Renewable energy helps reduce emissions in the short term, but its long-term impact remains statistically insignificant. GDP does not show a significant effect, suggesting that meaningful decarbonization will require a more intensive shift in the energy mix.

Keywords: ARDL, renewable …

Safely Exploring Novel Actions In Recommender Systems Via Deployment-Efficient Policy Learning, Haruka Kiyohara, Yusuke Narita, Yuta Saito, Kei Tateno, Takuma Udagawa

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

In many real recommender systems, novel items are added frequently over time. The importance of sufficiently presenting novel actions has widely been acknowledged for improving long-term user engagement. A recent work builds on Off-Policy Learning (OPL), which trains a policy from only logged data, however, the existing methods can be unsafe in the presence of novel actions. Our goal is to develop a framework to enforce exploration of novel actions with a guarantee for safety. To this end, we first develop Safe Off-Policy Policy Gradient (Safe OPG), which is a model-free safe OPL method based on a high confidence off-policy …

Does Idiosyncratic Volatility Follow A Random-Walk? Evidence From U.S. Stocks, Zihan Cao, Ossama Elhadary

Publications and Research

In asset pricing literature, idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) measures the firm-specific risk that is not explained by broader market movements. In this study, I investigate whether the idiosyncratic volatility (IVOL) of individual stocks follows a random-walk. Using monthly residuals from the Fama-French three-factor model (Fama & French, 1993), I estimate IVOL for more than 11,000 U.S. stocks, and apply the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test (Said & Dickey, 1984) to determine whether IVOL behaves like a random-walk. While most stocks display random-walk behavior, the proportion varies across industries, with some sectors showing deviations from random-walk behavior. Stocks with different levels of average return …

Simulasi Kenaikan Tarif Cukai Rokok Terhadap Kinerja Ekonomi Rokok Di Indonesia, Diska Agustinningtyas, Neli Agustina

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

Production and consumption of cigarettes in Indonesia tend to increase. Increasing production has a positive impact on state revenue. However, the increasing consumption of cigarettes harms public health. The government implemented a policy of cigarette excise tax to control cigarette consumption. This study aims to analyze the impact of increasing the cigarette tax on the economic performance of the cigarette industry. Using Two-Stage Least Squares (2SLS) estimation methods shows that cigarette production is influenced by its consumption. Cigarette consumption is influenced by its price, per capita income in the previous year, and its consumption in the previous year. Cigarette’s price …

Latino Or Hispanic-Owned Businesses In The Mountain West, 2017-2022, Anthony Arroyo, Cason Noll, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Economic Development & Workforce

This fact sheet examines the growth of Latino or Hispanic-owned businesses in the largest metropolitan areas in the Mountain West between 2017 and 2022. The data are derived from the Brookings Institution’s “Charting the surge in Latino or Hispanic-owned businesses in the US” report, which highlights data on Latino or Hispanic-owned businesses in metropolitan and micropolitan areas across all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. This fact sheet focuses on data for the following metropolitan areas in the Mountain West: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ; Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO; Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV; Albuquerque, NM; and Salt Lake City-Murray, UT.

The Reciprocity Of Misfortune: The Little Tradition Of Disasters In The Philippines, Greg Bankoff, Bianca Angelien Aban Claveria, David Lozada Iii, Camille L. Silva

History Department Faculty Publications

Just as there is a great and little tradition in religion and civilization, there is a great and little tradition in disaster. This article explores the origins of community resilience in rural areas of the Philippines based on local reciprocity and cooperation and how ­ these customary practices form the basis of national disaster risk-­reduction policies. The endless strug­gle to feed and shelter a family and contend with repeated hazards, whether natu­ral or human-­induced, promotes collective action. There is a need to cooperate with neighbors, a web of dyadic and community relationships born out of necessity that constitutes a “reciprocity …

Early Warning Models For Anticipating Crisis: Insights From Sri Lanka, K P Prabheesh, Vishuddhi Jayawickrema

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

The study investigates how well early warning systems can predict currency crises in Sri Lanka, with special attention given to deviations in credit and business cycles as potential indicators. The research incorporates domestic and international factors, as well as credit and business cycle indicators, to anticipate currency crises. It uses multiple approaches such as exchange rate pressure index for crisis identification, signalling approach and logit regression for examining the predictive capacity of the indicators. Using quarterly data from 1997 to 2022, the study identifies seven crisis events in the country. Our empirical findings show that before the currency crises, credit …

The Social Impact Of Unconditional Cash Transfer: A Quasi-Experimental Approach, Andar Ristabet Hesda

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study investigates the social effects of the unconditional cash transfer program and analyzes the underlying mechanism. The empirical analysis indicates that those who consistently participated as program beneficiaries own greater social capital than those who did not maintain continuous enrollment in the program. One mechanism of this impact is enhanced personality, particularly in social behavior. Furthermore, the characteristic of social capital most impacted is heightened participation in communal activities. This study indicates that the program neither displaces private aid nor promotes altruism. These data contradict the claim that the targeted cash transfer program could incite societal discord by fostering …

Testing Fractional Inflation Persistence In The West African Monetary Zone, Afees A. Salisu, Nuruddeen Usman, Godday Uwawunkonye Ebuh

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

Understanding inflation persistence is of utmost significance for monetary policymakers in an era of heightened global economic interdependence and increased susceptibility to external shocks. Thus, this study examines the dynamics of inflation within the West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ), employing both conventional and innovative econometric methods, notably Fractional integration and Fractionally Cointegrated Vector AutoRegressive (FCVAR) models. Our analysis reveals a compelling paradox in the persistence of inflation. Conventional methodologies suggest a robust inertia with high persistence levels nearing unity. Conversely, Fractional Integration paints a more intricate portrait, indicating a dynamic, less persistent behavior with persistence values notably below 0.5. Crucially, …

Disclosure And The Pace Of Drug Development, Colleen Cunnningham, Florian Ederer, Charles Hodgson, Zhichun Wang

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Policies that mandate disclosure of innovative project outcomes aim to increase innovation by limiting wasteful duplicative innovation. Yet, such policies change not only the ex-post information environment but also firms' ex-ante innovation incentives. Firms may slow down their own innovation efforts in anticipation of increased disclosure by others. We examine the innovation-related impacts of the 2017 FDA Final Rule amendment, which mandates disclosure of clinical trial results for pharmaceutical firms. We show that the policy hastened and increased disclosure of results for clinical trials post-completion, but also increased the time to completion of clinical trials, the time between early phases …

Independence Of Central Banks In Nondemocratic Regimes: Implications For Price Stability, Abeeb O. Olaniran, Umar B. Ndako

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study examines the impact of central bank independence on inflation in nondemocratic regimes, with a specific focus on the differences between Islamic and nonIslamic groups. It utilizes nonstationary heterogeneous panels to estimate both the longrun and short-run responses of inflation to central bank independence. Additionally, it employs a panel smooth transition regression model to identify any potential threshold effects in this relationship. Our findings reveal an inverse relationship between central bank independence and inflation rates for both groups in the long run. Our result suggests that non-Islamic authoritarian countries may struggle more than Islamic ones to maintain price stability …

Teaching Inquiry: A Guiding Template Fosters Critical Thinking, Barbara D. O'Donnell, Abigail C. Schwent

The Councilor: A National Journal of the Social Studies

This article provides a supportive way to address the marginalization of social studies by teaching inquiry through the use of a template. Inquiry based learning encourages students to make real-world connections by engaging in problem solving and exploration through research. It fosters higher level skills like critical thinking, evaluation, and synthesis of knowledge through experiential learning (Bell, Urhahne, Schanze and Ploetzner 2009). Using inquiry to investigate social studies topics encourages the use of sources from diverse perspectives to understand the complete picture of the event being researched. Teaching social studies through inquiry is a daunting task due to multiple obstacles …

Do Older Americans Work More When Their Housing Wealth Declines?, Brian J. Asquith

Upjohn Institute Policy and Research Briefs

No abstract provided.