Economics Commons^™

The Economics Of The U.S. Student Loan Market And The Case For The Education Development Financial Institution, Ian Akers

CMC Senior Theses

The United States student loan market is shaped by a variety of market failures–credit constraints, positive externalities, behavioral frictions including myopia, debt aversion, and misperception–that together justify government intervention in the market. Yet the design of federal intervention is just as important as its existence. This thesis details the economic theory underpinning the market for student loans, evaluates three historical federal student loan programs (the Perkins Loan Program, the Federal Family Education Loan Program, and the Federal Direct Loan Program) through the lens of that theory. The thesis then proposes a novel institutional model as a targeted response to the …

Algorithmic Trading In Idiosyncratic-Payoff Markets: A Multi-Agent System For On-Chain Prediction Contracts, Saif Aldeen A.K. Agha

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis documents the design, deployment, and forward-test evaluation of an evolutionary multi-agent algorithmic trading system on Polymarket, the largest decentralized prediction market. The system pairs a locally-hosted 72-billion-parameter language model with a gradient-boosted statistical filter and an evolutionary selection mechanism that maintains a population of approximately 500 autonomous trading agents. Each agent generates a probability estimate for an event, compares it to the prevailing market price, and trades the resulting disagreement.

The central empirical exercise estimates a panel regression of trade-level profit on the absolute disagreement between the agent's probability estimate and the market price, controlling for agent identity, …

Decomposing Carbon Intensity In U.S. Imports: Trade Composition Vs. Technological Change From 2000-2019, Alyssa K. Wong

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines whether the increasing share of U.S. manufactured imports from China between 2000 and 2019 affected the carbon intensity of U.S. consumption. Bilateral trade data from BACI are combined with emissions data from the OECD Inter-Country Input-Output framework to construct a measure of carbon intensity defined as emissions embodied per dollar of imports at a country level. Changes over time are decomposed into composition effects, driven by shifts in import shares, and technique effects, driven by changes in emissions intensity within exporting countries. Carbon intensity declines substantially over the period. While increased imports from China would have raised …

Authoritarian Development & Political Economy Of East Asia: The Making Of South Korea’S Developmental Regime, Christopher J. Chung

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis investigates the historical evolution of South Korea's developmental trajectory during the Park Chung-hee era (1961-1979), a period that left an indelible mark on the country's political economy and industrial landscape. Rather than treating Park's regime as its own starting point, this thesis situates it within a longer historical arc beginning with Japanese colonial rule and continuing through Syngman Rhee's aid-dependent republic, arguing that Korea's developmental success was neither institutionally inevitable nor externally engineered, but the product of a historically specific and ideologically driven state-building project. Four primary questions guide this research: what historical conditions shaped the institutional landscape …

Ceo Linguistic Stress And Abnormal Stock Returns Evidence From S&P 500 Earnings Conference Calls, Yiqi Sun

CMC Senior Theses

Stress is pervasive among corporate executives, yet its effect on firms' future abnormal return remains largely unexplored. This paper examines whether CEO's Linguistic stress exhibited during earnings conference calls predicts future abnormal stock returns. I provided a Large Language Model (Claude Sonnet 4.6) psychology-backed prompts to analyze CEO stress from linguistic patterns in 7491 earnings call transcripts from 470 companies in the S&P 500 during 2020-2024. I found three main results. First, the CEO linguistic stress is negatively and significantly associated with the immediate market reaction, with a one-unit increase in stress score associated with a 0.9% decrease in the …

Does Immigration Enforcement Induce Legalization? Replicating And Extending The H-2b Evidence To Agricultural Guest Workers, Katherine E. Schwab

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines whether intensified interior immigration enforcement leads employers to increase demand for legal temporary foreign workers through the H-2 guest-worker programs. Using updated administrative data from the Office of Foreign Labor Certification, I first replicate the core findings of Amuedo-Dorantes, Arenas-Arroyo, and Schmidpeter (2021), who find that county-level enforcement significantly raises employer demand for H-2B non-agricultural workers, then apply the same empirical framework to H-2A, the agricultural equivalent.

My replication results are directionally consistent with the original study – the enforcement coefficient on H-2B demand is positive across specifications – though weaker in significance, reflecting routine vintage differences …

The Jamaica That Dreams: A Normative Application Of Developmental Theory, Tamoy Pitt

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines Jamaica’s persistent underdevelopment through Martha Nussbaum's normative application of the capabilities approach as per her conception in Creating Capabilities. Through this approach, the paper will argue that Jamaica’s underdevelopment is a result of the failure of its domestic institutions to provide all citizens with the substantive freedoms and capabilities necessary to live lives of dignity. Originally detailed by Amartya Sen in his book Development as Freedom, the capabilities approach posits freedom as both the means and ends to development while rejecting contemporary approaches to development such as GDP, Utilitarianism, or Rawlsian resource-based approaches as insufficient frameworks for …

Too Much Of A Good Thing? Generic Entry, Drug Prices, And The Innovation Tradeoff, Kiara Jacob

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines how the number of generic competitors affects generic drug prices and whether generic markets exhibit a competition threshold beyond which additional entry produces little further price reduction. Using monthly NADAC price data and FDA Orange Book manufacturer records, I construct a molecule-month panel of 17 molecules across four therapeutic classes from 2013 to 2023, restricted to generic price observations. Fixed-effects regressions show that generic competition is associated with substantial price declines: each additional generic manufacturer is associated with a 7.2 log-point reduction in average acquisition price. The main threshold specification shows that prices are approximately 49 percent …

Diplomatic Gaps And Global Finance: How U.S. Ambassadorial Vacancies Affect Bilateral Portfolio Investment Positions, Tianning Qin

CMC Senior Theses

This paper examines how the absence of U.S. ambassadors impacts bilateral portfolio investment positions held by investors in the United States and counterpart countries. The panel dataset spans 2001 to 2019, covering 56 counterpart countries in terms of portfolio investment positions held by foreign investors in U.S. securities and 102 counterpart countries in terms of portfolio investment positions held by U.S. investors in foreign countries. Using the instrumental variable approach, the results show that a prolonged vacancy lasting at least three months in a year causes sizable and significant reductions in portfolio investments held by foreign investors in U.S. securities. …

Volatility Modeling With An Application To Risk Parity Portfolios, Kenneth Hou

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis studies volatility modeling in the context of risk parity portfolio construction. I compare three risk parity portfolios that differ only in their underlying volatility model: a historical covariance baseline, a Bayesian stochastic volatility model, and a GRU–GARCH hybrid neural network. Using daily returns on Kenneth French’s five industry portfolios from January 2016 through December 2025, I construct monthly rebalanced portfolios under each model, with the SV and GRU forecasts embedded in hybrid covariance matrices that combine forecasted volatilities with rolling historical correlations. The results document a divergence between forecast accuracy and portfolio performance: the SV model is the …

Converging, But Not Together: Regional Growth After Eu Enlargement, Armine Kardashyan

CMC Senior Theses

This paper studies whether poorer regions in Central and Eastern Europe have caught up to richer ones since EU enlargement, and whether any observed catch-up reflects absolute convergence or convergence conditional on regional fundamentals. Using annual NUTS-3 data for eleven Central and Eastern European member states from 2000 to 2023, I estimate rolling ten-year convergence regressions within a steady-state framework in which regional GDP per capita depends on investment, human capital, and within-window exposure to EU membership.

The results show strong evidence of conditional convergence during the early and middle phases of enlargement. Regions that begin a window above their …

Rank Rebalancing In Commodity And Foreign Exchange Markets, Prateek D. Vyas

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis empirically tests the rank-rebalancing mechanism of Stochastic Portfolio Theory (SPT) across commodity futures, foreign exchange futures, and equity ETFs. The Reverse Price-Weighted strategy (RPW) assigns, to each asset, the market weight of the asset at the opposite price rank, and generates an annualized excess return of 2.90% over the price-weighted (MKT) commodity benchmark, during the period of November 1977 to October 2025 (HAC t = 2.058, p = 0.040). The differential Sharpe ratio (dSharpe) of 0.245 is confirmed by a stationary block bootstrap, with a 𝑝-value of 0.015, and factor regressions controlling for carry, momentum, and value yield …

Bitcoin And The American Conflict Over Money And Property, Jacob Smagula

CMC Senior Theses

I argue that Bitcoin is the latest expression of the recurring American conflict over who controls the terms of money and property, and that the political coalition formed around Bitcoin shares the same characteristics as earlier coalitions formed around this struggle. I review three historical cases that each produced a coalition opposing the existing monetary order: the Bank War of the 1830s, the Free Silver movement of the 1890s, and the populist backlash against the Federal Reserve during the 1979 Farm Crisis and the 2008 Great Recession. I find that Bitcoin’s architecture, which allows for self-custody, permissionless access, and an …

The Zoom Town Effect Of Remote Work On Rural Housing Markets, Luc R. Fabing

CMC Senior Theses

I study the impact of remote work on rural housing markets, highlighting the moderating role of outdoor recreation amenities. Using panel data from the American Community Survey and Zillow (2010–2024), I employ a Two-Way Fixed Effects model and a shift-share instrumental variable strategy to estimate the effect of work-from-home (WFH) rates on home prices. I find that higher WFH rates are strongly associated with higher home prices in high-recreation counties, but that the association is weak or negative in counties lacking significant recreation amenities. These findings point to amenity migration as a key mechanism through which remote work impacts rural …

Procedural Rhetoric And Prosociality: How Game Mechanics Shape Altruistic Decision-Making, Elijah Emory-Muhammad

CMC Senior Theses

This study investigates how different prosocial video game designs influence subsequent altruistic behavior, specifically comparing interactive narratives with procedural rhetoric. While prior research demonstrates that prosocial games can prime helpful behaviors, less is known about the underlying mechanical structures driving these effects. Fifteen participants engaged with either an Interactive Narrative Game (ING) or a Procedural Rhetoric Game (PRG) before completing a resource allocation task (Dictator Game). Results revealed no statistically significant differences between the two conditions in promoting sacrificial altruism or satisfying basic psychological needs. Instead, participants across both groups demonstrated a strong adherence to an equality-seeking norm, consistently choosing …

From Collective Punishment To Collective Action, Samuel N. Johnson-Saeger

CMC Senior Theses

Regime change may be sought in two primary ways, absent a turn to internal or external violence: through nonviolent resistance, from within, and sanctions, from abroad. This paper is about how those two pathways are intertwined. I challenge two different strands of the existing literature. First, I show that Liou et al. (2022)'s finding that sanctions increase the predicted probability of nonviolent resistance movement progress is subject to substantial upward bias from country heterogeneity. Incorporating country fixed effects, I show that sanctions, on average, have no statistically significant effect on resistance outcomes. Second, I challenge Chenoweth and Stephan (2008)'s argument …

Wiener-Granger Causality To Model Banking Sector Contagion, Riya Bhasin

CMC Senior Theses

In this thesis, we explore the main drivers behind the 2008 Global Financial Crisis and how the interconnectivity of banking sectors contributed to the worldwide spread of its effects. To understand how this became a global phenomenon, we apply linear Wiener-Granger Causality as a form of network analysis, building on pre-existing methodology in order to study continent banking indices. We find connections across locales on the continent and country level, but ones that are weak. Our modelling was insufficient to completely capture existing and well-known relationships accurately. This occurs due to limitations of the data and of the linear models’ …

Trading Volume And Forecast Accuracy In Kalshi Prediction Markets, Nicholas Smole

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines the accuracy of Kalshi prediction markets and how different measures of trading volume shape their calibration and predictive power. Expanding upon previous models, use nonparametric calibration curves, pseudo-likelihood regressions, and Brier-score regressions on a large panel of Kalshi contracts to compare the effects of ex-post total volume and cumulative trading volume on market accuracy. Markets are typically well-calibrated near expiration; however, at longer horizons, low-volume markets exhibit substantially more miscalibration. Holding time to expiration fixed, greater cumulative volume is associated with higher accuracy. In comparison, higher ex-post total volume is associated with lower accuracy, highlighting the importance …

Teaching A New Dog Old Tricks: How Buy Now Pay Later Responds To Consumer Financial Strength, Ryunosuke Nakase

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis aims to answer three questions. 1) How does BNPL usage in the US respond to macroeconomic conditions reflective of consumer strength? 2) Does BNPL debt migrate toward credit cards during months following high BNPL spend? 3) How does BNPL respond to macroeconomic conditions at the firm level? I constructed a 4 year monthly and quarterly time series dataset spanning from 2021 to 2025. I utilize time series OLS regressions to examine the short-term behavior of BNPL volume monthly at the aggregate level and quarterly at the firm level. At the aggregate level, BNPL volume in the US is …

Demographics, Macroeconomy, Or Monetary Policy: What Drives Japan’S Short Run Economic Movements Since 1991?, James Ac Raymond Ii

CMC Senior Theses

This thesis examines how Japan’s post-1991 macroeconomy behaves by analyzing quarterly inflation, money growth, and equity returns, with a focus on whether demographic change, macroeconomic indicators, or monetary policy better explains short run movements. Using Newey West regressions, the results show that demographics exert almost no influence at short horizons, while major Bank of Japan policy regimes such as QQE, NIRP, and YCC strongly shape liquidity conditions and dominate both money growth and equity performance. The findings suggest that demographic change matters primarily as a long run force that creates a low-rate environment, while short run dynamics are driven almost …

Beyond Bans: A Travel Distance-Based Approach To Estimating The Effects Of Dobbs V. Jackson Women’S Health Organization On Fertility And Labor Supply, Enya Kamadolli

CMC Senior Theses

The Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision had highly heterogeneous effects on abortion access across U.S. states, variation I exploit to identify causal effects on fertility and labor supply. Rather than a binary “total ban” indicator, I construct a continuous treatment measure based on changes in distance to the nearest legal abortion provider between 2021 and 2023, and apply a difference-in-differences design to state-level panel data. Effects are attenuated and imprecise in the South, consistent with diminishing marginal effects at large distances. In non-Southern states, I find that a 100 km increase in distance raises total births by about …

The Evolving Beijing Consensus: Chinese Communist Party Political Control And Economic Trade Offs, Ian Murphy

Political Science & Geography Faculty Publications

China’s rapid economic rise and unique development trajectory have long been the subject of scholarly debate, often framed through the concept of the “Beijing Consensus” as an alternative to the Washington Consensus. While initial conceptualizations highlight innovation, sustainability, and national sovereignty, later analyses highlighted elements like state capitalism and authoritarianism, particularly in the wake of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. This paper argues that the Beijing Consensus is undergoing a significant evolution under Chairman Xi Jinping, increasingly prioritizing the Chinese Communist Party’s political security, regime stability, and ideological control at the expense of economic growth. This marks a notable departure …

All Games Have Equilibria, Arthur Paul Pedersen, M. Ali Khan, Maxwell B. Stinchcombe

Publications and Research

Research on Nash equilibrium existence for infinite games has grown into a patchwork of technical preconditions and counterexamples. This paper presents a unified program in equilibrium theory by revising the predominant model of mixed strategies based on countable additivity. A game is specified by a nonempty set of players and, for each player, a nonempty action set and a bounded von Neumann-Morgenstern utility function. Every such game is shown to admit a Nash equilibrium in finitely additive mixed strategies. In addition, the equilibrium correspondence for any such game is shown to be nonempty, compact-valued, and upper hemicontinuous, and the same …

From Coverage To Care: Evaluating The Effects Of Aca Medicaid Expansion On Birth Outcomes, Bailey R. Lengfelder

Economics Honors Projects

I examine the impact of the Affordable Care Act’s Medicaid expansion on maternal and fetal health outcomes using National Center for Health Statistics Natality data from 2006 to 2023. I exploit staggered state adoption as a quasi-experiment, and the staggered differences-in-differences estimates indicate an increase in the share of Medicaid births but broadly no impact on maternal prenatal care, maternal health, and fetal health. The absence of statistically significant effects is consistent across heterogeneity groups. These null findings indicate that expanded insurance access through the Affordable Care Act may be insufficient to improve health outcomes. I do find a statistically …

“A Civilised Order”: Political Economy Of Welfare State Development In United States And South Africa, Camden M. Webb

Masters Theses

The welfare state and its development across national contexts in the twentieth century signaled a marked change in the state’s relationship with its citizens. They developed in a structural crisis between two political economy organizations, moving from liberal structures to regulated ones. As the world continues the current ongoing structural crisis out of the neoliberal structure, the future of welfare policy is uncertain. My research presents a Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) using the United States and South Africa as most-different cases to explore the similarities and differences in their national contexts that shaped their welfare state development in the early …

Ccb Release Impact On Indonesia’S Bank Lending: A Difference-In-Differences Approach, Sang Tyas Suci, Beta Yulianita Gitaharie

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

This study investigates the impact of Indonesia’s Capital Conservation Buffer (CCB) release on loan growth during the COVID-19 recession. Using a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) approach and bank-level data from 2019:Q1 to 2022:Q2, it analyzes how regulatory capital relief affected lending. The results indicate that the regulation was an effective countercyclical tool to increase loan growth, particularly among less-capitalized banks. The research contributes to the limited empirical evidence on capital buffer policies in emerging markets by examining the effectiveness of temporary capital relief in crisis contexts. We suggest future research on the buffer reimposition and exploring its implications for post-crisis lending behavior.

Differential Impact Of Admission Type And Clinical Complexity On Diabetes Hospitalization Costs Among African American And Hispanic Patients In Southeastern Virginia, Ismail El Moudden, Asra Amidi, Reem Sharaf-Alddin, Michael C. Bittner, Qi Zhang

Department of Obstetrics & Gynecology Faculty Publications

Background

Diabetes mellitus (DM) imposes substantial healthcare costs with documented disparities among African Americans and Hispanic patients. To inform care delivery and resource allocation, this study identified hospitalization cost predictors among African American and Hispanic patients with diabetes in Southeastern Virginia.

Methods

We analyzed 6,011 hospital discharges from the Virginia Health Information database (2016-2020) for adults aged 18-85 with diabetes. Discharges were classified by Medicare Severity Diagnosis-Related Groups: DM with complications/comorbidities (DCC, n = 3,328), DM with major complications/comorbidities (DMCC, n = 1,518), and DM without major complications/comorbidities (DWO, n = 1,165). Because cost distributions were right-skewed (skewness 3.5-8.24), we …

A New Functional Setting For Term Structure Modeling Using The Health-Jarrow-Morton Framework, Michael Pokojovy, Ebenezer Nkum, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr.

Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications

The well-known Heath–Jarrow–Morton (HJM) framework provides a universal and efficacious instrument for modeling the stochastic evolution of an entire yield curve by explaining the interest rate dynamics in continuous time under no-arbitrage conditions. Existing implementations involve exponentially weighted function spaces as theoretical settings for the former stochastic evolution. While the choice of weight can have a drastic effect on model calibration and subsequent forecasting, it cannot be estimated from market data and does not allow for any objective interpretation. The proposed approach does not have this shortcoming as it adopts a suitably designed unweighted function space. The HJM equation is …

Strategic Peer Region Selection For Economic Development, Xiaobing Shuai, Riley Ford

School of Professional and Continuing Studies Faculty Publications

Benchmarking against peer and aspirational regions is essential for economic development because it provides meaningful context for evaluating performance and shaping strategy. These comparisons help highlight regional advantages that attract new investments, as well as uncover gaps that may represent opportunities for future growth. ...

This article provides a practical, data-driven framework that economic development organizations can use to identify peer and aspirational regions, strengthen benchmarking efforts, and support strategy development. A case study illustrates how this can be applied to better interpret economic indicators and inform decision-making. For EDOs, this approach offers a more consistent way to evaluate competitiveness, …

Application Paths Of Semantic Modeling In Financial Fraud Detection And Risk Identification, Victor P. Gauthier, Daniel S. Wu

Computer Science Faculty Publications

Financial fraud and risk pose significant threats to economic stability and individual well-being. Traditional detection methods often struggle to keep pace with increasingly sophisticated fraudulent schemes. Semantic modeling, which focuses on understanding the meaning and relationships within data, offers a promising avenue for enhancing fraud detection and risk identification. This review paper explores the application paths of semantic modeling in this domain. We begin with a historical overview of fraud detection techniques, highlighting the limitations of traditional approaches. Subsequently, we delve into core themes, including knowledge graph-based fraud detection and semantic rule-based inference for risk assessment. We then compare and …