Operational Research Commons^™

Enhancements To The Animated Tutor For Air Combat Simulation, David A. Legge

Theses and Dissertations

This study investigates the use of the Ada programming language in combat modeling. It takes an existing combat model, the Animated Tutor for Air Combat Simulation (ATACS), and re-writes it into Ada. The new model also includes enhancements to the original model. ATACS+, as it is now called, is used as a learning tool in combat modeling classes at the Air Force Institute of Technology. ATACS+ consists of a preprocessor and a model, complete with two and three-dimensional graphics and engagement status reports. Conclusion are made about Ada's suitability for combat modeling, some of the features of Ada which can …

Including Maximum Sustained Wind Speed In A Time Series Model To Forecast Hurricane Movement, Timothy B. Mott

Theses and Dissertations

Techniques for applying time series fundamentals to forecasting hurricane movement are thoroughly examined in this research. The objectives are: (1) to modify Dr. Thomas Curry's threshold autoregressive time series model to improve its ability to forecast hurricane movement, (2) to forecast the maximum sustained wind speed for a hurricane, and (3) to identify if wind speed should be included as an explanatory variable to aid in forecasting hurricane movement. Eleven different models to predict the latitude, longitude and maximum sustained wind speed are compared and contrasted with Curry's bivariate time series model. The results showed the modifications allow significant forecasting …

A Modified Anderson Darling Goodness-Of-Fit Test For The Gamma Distribution With Unknown Scale And Location Parameters, Tamer Ozmen

Theses and Dissertations

A new modified Anderson-Darling goodness-of-fit test is introduced for the three-parameter Gamma distribution when the location parameter is found by minimum distance estimation and scale parameter by maximum likelihood estimation. Monte Carlo simulation studies were performed to calculate the critical values for A-D test when A-D statistic is minimized. These critical values are then used for testing whether a set of observations follows a Gamma distribution when the scale and location parameters axe unspecified and are estimated from the sample. Functional relationship between the critical values of A-D is also examined for each shape parameter by the variables, sample size …

Optimal Silo Attack Plan For The Red Integrated Strategic Offensive Plan (Risop), Richard C. Pace

Theses and Dissertations

The Joint Staff Directorate for Force Structure, Resources, and Assessment (J-8) sought a procedure which could be used to generate an optimal missile allocation for the silo attack portion of the Red Integrated Strategic Offensive Plan (RISOP). Their current solution procedure is a manual heuristic which is time-consuming and is not guaranteed to lead to an optimal solution. J- 8 defines an optimal solution as a feasible solution which minimizes both the flight time of the missile that impacts first and the duration of the attack. J- 8 defined several input rules which limit how missiles may be allocated. A …

Integrating Psychological Operations Into The Joint Theater Level Simulation (Jtls), C. Matthew Pecot Iii

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis provides a prototype and methodology for integrating psychological operations (PSYOP) into the Joint Theater Level Simulation (JTLS) combat model. The requirement rose out of the need for aggregate-level training models to reflect the role of PSYOP so that commanders and their staffs can learn how to manage plan for, and conduct PSYOP within the context of AirLand battle doctrine. As the JTLS model currently exists, there is no representation of psychological operations whatsoever. This thesis outlines a methodology for incorporating the PSYOP analysis process (including the target audience analysis), the PSYOP product development and production process, the PSYOP …

Bradley Fighting Vehicle Gunnery: An Analysis Of Engagement Strategies For The M242 25-Mm Automatic Gun, James G. Riley

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis studies various engagement strategies for the Bradley Fighting Vehicle's 25-mm automatic gun firing APDS-T ammunition against a BMP- type target. The Army currently provides only the broadest guidance for the structure of the 25-mm point target engagement which results in the employment of an assortment of strategies throughout the Bradley community. The goal of this research was to determine if a best method exists. Bradley gunnery is a complex set commander/gunner interactions which can be difficult to represent with the analytic models commonly found in the literature. A model, based on the simulation methods used by the US …

A Generalized Simulation Model For A Typical Medical Treatment Facility Obstetrical Unit, Annette M. Stephens

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this research was to develop a decision support tool for users at Air Force Medical Treatment Facility obstetrical (OB) units. The immediate needs of the generalized simulation model contained in this research provide obstetrical wards with the capability to identify unit effectiveness as well as the ability to predict future performance. As a result of this model, decision-makers will now have access to information on system performance as well as insight into the effects of changing conditions. This model was formulated with the flexibility to be adapted to OB wards at regional and local hospitals throughout the …

A Modified Chi-Squared Goodness-Of-Fit Test For The Three-Parameter Gamma Distribution With Unknown Parameters, Thomas J. Sterle

Theses and Dissertations

A modified chi-squared goodness-of-fit test was created for the gamma distribution in the case where all three parameters must be estimated from the sample. Critical values are generated using a Monte Carlo simulation procedure with 5000 repetitions each. Random samples of 8 different sizes were drawn from gamma distributions with shape parameters 1, 1.5, 2., and 2.5. The shape, scale, and location parameters were then estimated from each sample, using an iterative technique combining the maximum likelihood and minimum distance methods, enabling, computation of the chi-squared statistics and critical values. The same process is used to generate random samples, parameter …

Modified Goodness-Of-Fit Tests For The Weibull Distribution, Erol Yucel

Theses and Dissertations

This research will produce a new modified Anderson-Darling and W* goodness of fit statistics for the three parameter Weibull Distribution when all parameters unknown and estimated by Maximum Likelihood-Minimum Distance combination. The critical values for each statistic, sample size and a levels 0. 20, 0.15, 0.10, 0.05 and 0.01 are produced. The Monte Carlo Simulation used 5000 repetitions for sample sizes of 10, 15, 20, 25, 30, 40, and 50 with the Weibull shape equals to 3, scale equals to 4 and location equals to 10. The power study is made for the same sizes as above with the hypothesized …

An Analysis Of The Generalized Lambda Distribution, Robert J. Bergevin

Theses and Dissertations

The Generalized Lambda Distribution (GLD) is a four parameter function that is capable of mimicking the behavior of a wide range of probability density functions (pdfs). Unfortunately, the GLD presently cannot model every possible type of pdf. Since the reasons for this limitation are unknown, this thesis examines several potential problems in an attempt to expand the range of distributions the GLD can mimic. We first present a discussion of the behavior of the algorithm that is used to search for the appropriate GLD parameter values. In particular, we examine the effect of using an unconstrained search to find the …

A New Goodness-Of-Fit Test For The Weibull Distribution Based On Spacings, Mark C. Coppa

Theses and Dissertations

The critical values for a new goodness-of-fit test based on spacings are generated for the Weibull distribution when the shape parameter is known. The critical values are used for testing whether a set of observations follow a Weibull distribution when the scale and location parameters are unknown. A Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 iterations is used to generate the critical values for sample sizes 5(5)35 at shape parameters k equal to 0.5(0.5)1.5 and for sample sizes 5(5)20 at shape parameters k = 2.0(1.0)4.0. A Monte Carlo power study of the Z* test statistic using 5000 iterations is accomplished using nine …

A Fuzzy Logic Optimal Control Law Solution To The Cmmca Tracking Problem, Randy E. Nelson

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force uses the C-18 Cruise Missile Mission Control Aircraft (CMMCA) to radar track cruise missiles (CM) during test flights. Because of the complexity of the CM flight profiles, maintaining radar coverage at all times is very difficult. This thesis attempted to apply optimal control theory to construct a simulation providing 100% radar coverage. The simulation was divided into ten second intervals, and fuzzy logic was used at the start of each interval to determine the set point, i.e., that point in space where the CMMCA should be in ten seconds. The set point calculation's fuzzy logic balanced CMMCA …

The Integration Of Tanker Aircraft Into Aslar, John S. Stieven

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this study was to analyze the proposed addition of heavy KC-135 tanker aircraft to the United States Air Force Aircraft Surge Launch and Recovery (ASLAR) instrument approach system. The Air Force Communications Command, which oversees ASLAR operations, will use these results to determine if KC-135 aircraft should be permitted to fly ASLAR approaches. A SIMSCRIPT II.5 animated simulation model was developed to simulate the Runway 26 approach at Seymour Johnson Air Force Base under a variety of wind conditions. This model was expanded to show the feasibility of KC-135s flying ASLAR approaches and to determine proper controller …

An Empirical Evaluation Of Five Circular Error Probable Estimation Techniques And A Method For Improving Them, William L. Tongue

Theses and Dissertations

This study compared five CEP estimation techniques under the assumption that the crossrange and downrange miss distances of the sample data follow a bivariate normal distribution. The analysis determined the sensitivities of these models to changes in sample size, bias, correlation, and ellipticity in terms of three measures of effectiveness: Mean relative error (RE), variance of RE, and mean squared error (MSE) of RE. In general, it was found that sample size was the most significant parameter in determining the best CEP method. Mean RE provided a 'strong' distinction between estimators, while variance and MSE provided 'weak' distinctions between estimators. …

Cultural Transposition: Exploring Meanings Of And Strategies For Cross-Cultural Transfer Of Organizational Practices, Yongming Tang

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The research objective is to study the phenomenon of transferring organizational practices which are conceptualized in one culture to another different culture. The purpose of the study is (1) to understand how cultural values and beliefs are manifested in behavior; (2) to explore how the Western organizational practices are interpreted and assimilated into an organization in an Eastern culture; and (3) to explore strategies for the fit between local cultural orientations and imported organizational practices. A qualitative, interpretive, and reflexive research methodology was developed to conduct this study.

The study was conducted in two phases. The first phase was designed …

Multidimensional Approach To Implementation Of Continuous Process Improvement Utilizing Small Run Analysis In A Shipyard Environment, Paul Ray Hollandsworth

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Nationally, both public and private shipyards are experiencing a high rework rate (over 40%) in the fabrication of plug connectors used for electronic systems onboard Navy vessels. The shipyard's survival depends on acquiring the elements necessary to maintain a major industry in a position of continuous improvement that produces a better product than their competitors, at less cost, in a safe manner, and on schedule.

This research addresses the complex problem of how to introduce quality control methodologies within a job shop environment that assists in identifying variables that influence the rework rate of plug fabrication process over a four …

Introduction To Intellisim 2.0, Paul Savory

Department of Industrial and Management Systems Engineering: Faculty Publications

IntelliSIM is a prototype for a new generation of knowledge-based simulation tool that has been developed by the Systems Simulation Laboratory at Arizona State University. This tool is a computer environment that allows non-simulation trained modelers to predict the performance of a manufacturing system for which the necessary data is available. The system provides predictive data on such items as throughput time, queue levels, equipment utilization, reactions to machine failures, etc. With IntelliSIM, the benefits of discrete-event simulation can be exploited without requiring the high level of expertise necessary to successfully conduct a sound simulation study. The approach offered with …

An Investigation Of Performance Appraisal With Recommendations For White Collar And Blue Collar Workers, Mark W. Alberts

Graduate Research Papers

The accurate evaluation of an employee's performance, whether it be a salary or wage worker, is one of the most challenging problems confronting any organization. According to Lazer (1977), which is still true today, performance appraisal is absolutely necessary if an organization is to prosper in the highly competitive world of modern business.

Regardless of all that has been written about the how and why of performance appraisal, there still seems to be constant problems and areas of clear disagreement. Published writings about performance appraisal cover approximately the past 30 years and deal mostly with private corporations. Before that, performance …

A Model Of Global Positioning System (Gps) Master Control Station (Mcs) Operations, David N. Koster

Theses and Dissertations

The United States Air Force's Navstar Global Positioning System (GPS) provides high-accuracy space-based navigation and time distribution to suitably- equipped military and civilian users. The system consists of earth-orbiting satellites and a world-wide network of ground stations. A single operational control center, the GPS Master Control Station (MCS) monitors, maintains, and commands the GPS satellite constellation. The on-going deployment of the complete satellite constellation and recent changes in the operational crew structure may invalidate previously used planning and management paradigms. There is currently no analytical method for predicting the impact of these and other environmental changes on system parameters and …

An Interactive Life Cycle Cost Forecasting Tool, Nicolas M. Habash

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis is about computing life cycle cost and culminates with a life cycle cost forecasting tool (software). The software is written in FORTRAN 77 and uses IMSL subroutine extensively for random number generation from various distributions. The algorithm can compute life cycle cost for the following types of cost elements: constant, stochastic, and cost estimating relationships (CERs). The use of a trapezoid approximation of payment allocation is allowed. Percent allocation of payments is also allowed and is recommended where the trapezoid fails to correctly represent the payment schedule. The CER algorithm handles cost data that was estimated in base …

Analysis Of Whole-Sky Imager Data To Determine The Validity Of Pcflos Models, Richard W. Boltz, George R. Kather

Theses and Dissertations

Models used to predict the probability of a cloud-free line-of-sight (PCFLOS) from the ground to space have existed since the 1960s. Unfortunately, an adequate data set has not been available to check the validity of these models until the deployment of the Whole-Sky Imager (WSI) system in 1989. Now that a three-year database has been collected from the WSI system, it is possible to validate, or refute, the existing models. This study investigates the most generally accepted models. Specifically, we investigate three questions: (1) Is the Lund and Shank-lin PCFLOS model assumption of azimuthal independence valid; (2) Does the Lund …

An Analysis Of Usspacecom's Space Surveillance Network (Ssn) Sensor Tasking Methodology, Jeff M. Berger, Joseph B. Moles, David G. Wisley

Theses and Dissertations

This study provides the basis for the development of a cost/benefit assessment model to determine the effects of alterations to the Space Surveillance Network (SSN) on orbital element (OE) set accuracy. It provides a review of current methods used by NORAD and the SSN to gather and process observations, an alternative to the current Gabbard classification method, and the development of a model to determine the effects of observation rate and correction interval on OE set accuracy. The proposed classification scheme is based on satellite J2 perturbations. Specifically, classes were established based on mean motion, eccentricity, and inclination Since J2 …

Analysis Of Titan Iv Launch Responsiveness, Michael T. Dunn

Theses and Dissertations

This research investigates the feasibility of developing responsive space systems through responsive launch operations with the Titan IV, the only expendable heavy-lift launch vehicle in the United States inventory. A definition for responsive launch has not been firmly established by Air Force Space Command for this launch vehicle. For benchmark purposes, this study uses the responsive launch definition contained in the proposal request for the Medium Launch Vehicle Ill: launch vehicle ignition within 60 days of mission need notification. Titan IV launch processing at Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS), Florida currently requires in excess of six months, rendering Titan …

Recurrent Neural Networks For Radar Target Identification, Eric T. Kouba

Theses and Dissertations

A real-time recurrent learning algorithm was applied to a five class radar target identification problem. The wideband radar was assumed to measure both kinematic (tracking information expressed as estimated aspect angles) and high range resolution data from a single, isolated aircraft. The aspect angles (azimuth and elevation) of the aircraft relative to the radar were assumed to be constantly chancing. This created temporal sequences of high range resolution radar signatures that changed as the aspect angles changed. These sequences were used as input features to a recurrent neural network for three radar target identification test cases. The first test case …

Locating An Imaging Radar In Canada For Identifying Spaceborne Objects, William G. Schick

Theses and Dissertations

This research presents a study of the maximal coverage p-median facility location problem as applied to the location of an imaging radar in Canada for imaging spaceborne objects. The classical mathematical formulation of the maximal coverage p-median problem is converted into network-flow with side constraint formulations that are developed using a scaled down version of the imaging radar location problem. Two types of network-flow with side constraint formulations are developed: a network using side constraints that simulates the gains in a generalized network; and a network resembling a multi-commodity flow problem that uses side constraints to force flow along identical …

Retinal Modeling: Segmenting Motion From Spatio-Temporal Inputs Using Neural Networks, David E. Swanson

Theses and Dissertations

We applied two first-order, linear, time-varying, differential equations to the task of segmenting motion from sequences of images. The equations are modified Grossberg formulas for long-term and short-term memory models characterizing the neurotransmitter and cell-activity levels of a synapse and neuron. We described how a two layered, sensory, neural network can be built using the equations to simulate the amacrine neurons of the retina. The model is defined using adaptive input nodes (adaptive model) and is compared to a similar model without these nodes (O and G model). By replicating the basic amacrine neuron model to form both one- and …

Identification Of The Initial Transient In Discrete-Event Simulation Output Using The Kalman Filter, Mark A. Gallagher

Theses and Dissertations

Data truncation is a commonly accepted method of dealing with initialization bias in discrete-event simulation. Algorithms for determining the appropriate initial-data truncation point for univariate and multivariate output are proposed. The techniques entail averaging across replications and estimating a steady-state output model in a state-space framework. Using the estimated model, Multiple Model Adaptive Estimation (MMAE), which uses Kalman filters with different parameter vectors, is applied. Based on the filters' residuals, the conditional probabilities of each filter's specific parameter vector being correct are determined. The MMAE parameter estimates are the probabilistic- weighted average of the filters' assumed parameter vectors. The estimated …

Demonstrating The Effects Of Shop Flow Process Variability On The Air Force Depot Level Reparable Item Pipeline, Marvin A. Arostegui Jr., Jon A. Larvick

Theses and Dissertations

This study investigated the effects of reducing the mean processing time and variability in the Shop Flow Segment of the Depot Level Reparable Item pipeline. The measure of interest was the average number of units in the pipeline of a particular type of item (referred to as the average pipeline contents). A literature review revealed that process variability in the pipeline has an impact on its effective operation and cost. A simulation model was developed to determine if reducing mean processing time and/or variability in the Shop Flow Segment would result in a reduction in the average pipeline contents. The …

The Theory Of Constraints Applied To Project Scheduling: The Critical Chain Concept Defined, Andrew D. Ingram, Paul E. Scherer

Theses and Dissertations

This research applies the Theory of Constraints' principles to a project management environment. The Constraint Theory developed by Dr. Eliyahu M. Goldratt has been successfully applied in many manufacturing settings. Researchers are now beginning to apply Theory of Constraints' principles and techniques outside the manufacturing environment. Specific objectives of this research effort include: to develop and demonstrate a resource constrained project scheduling algorithm based on the Theory of Constraints' principles and techniques: to perform a detailed comparison of the manufacturing and project scheduling environments designed to support algorithm development; and to lay the foundation for additional research in this area …

An Analysis Of The Air Force Enlisted Performance Feedback System, Dee J. Jackson, Mark A. Ward

Theses and Dissertations

This research evaluated the effectiveness of the enlisted evaluation performance feedback system. The Air Force created the feedback system because many airmen, especially those in lower ranks, did not know or did not understand their duties. Therefore, for the purpose of this study, effectiveness was defined as the degree to which the Air Force model mimicked the ideal feedback model as formulated by the researcher's analysis of the literature. The researchers found evidence that the new Air Force feedback system is an improvement over the old design. Under the old system, the only regulated means of providing feedback was a …