Operational Research Commons^™

A Framework To Simplify The Choice Of Alternative Analysis And Selection Methods, James Paul Lewis Holzgrefe

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

This dissertation contributes a framework for analysts and engineering managers to investigate and choose alternative analysis and selection methods based upon their problem and its context. It began as an investigation into the alternative analysis and selection methods used in military planning. The existing military methods were inconsistent, violated the decision science body of knowledge, and provided no guidance to the practitioner on matching methods to problems. These challenges made it necessary to conduct this investigation.

This research used a three-phase mixed methods approach. The first phase applied the general inductive method to the decision making body of knowledge to …

Epistemic Uncertainty Analysis: An Approach Using Expert Judgment And Evidential Credibility, Patrick Hester

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Faculty Publications

When dealing with complex systems, all decision making occurs under some level of uncertainty. This is due to the physical attributes of the system being analyzed, the environment in which the system operates, and the individuals which operate the system. Techniques for decision making that rely on traditional probability theory have been extensively pursued to incorporate these inherent aleatory uncertainties. However, complex problems also typically include epistemic uncertainties that result from lack of knowledge. These problems are fundamentally different and cannot be addressed in the same fashion. In these instances, decision makers typically use subject matter expert judgment to assist …

Robust Sensitivity Analysis Of Courses Of Action Using An Additive Value Model, Hunter A. Marks

Theses and Dissertations

The Department of Defense (DoD) requires the ability to quantifiably measure progress in arenas that are complex and difficult to measure, such as the stability of a region. Therefore, the DoD works diligently to predict the effect of operations and sponsors research to improve prediction and analysis. They desire a repeatable, systematic methodology to aid in the selection of courses of action (COA) that efficiently meet stated objectives and quantitatively measure the degree of accomplishment of these objectives. The author proposes a value-focused thinking (VFT) decision analysis (DA) approach to this problem. This methodology not only aids in selection of …

Radical Impact Of Change In Actions And Confidence Index On Reverse Decision Making An Application Based Study, Swatee Trimbak Paithankar

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

While making decisions under uncertainty, people are often unaware of the logical approach to form the decision process. It is assumed that collecting details, analyzing and evaluating data is enough to make 'proper' decisions. However, past research in the decision making arena has significantly validated that there exists a class of decision problems which is complex, ill-structured and not defined to the level where decision makers can draw logical conclusions based on existing traditional decision approaches. RDM (reverse decision making), one of the novel approaches of decision making under conditions of uncertainty, has shown potential towards addressing some of these …

Reverse Decision Making And Goal Attainment A Proof Of Concept As A New Approach To The Decision Making Process Under Uncertainty, Shitalkumar S. Sabne

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Decision making occurs when one must choose among alternatives. However, in uncertain environments where problems are complex and decision makers lack complete knowledge of the situation as well as decision alternatives, it's not possible for them to select an optimal decision outcome by 'Traditional Decision Approaches'. At present Reverse Decision Making is the central, although new and unproved, approach of Old Dominion University's Engineering Management and Systems Engineering research on decision making process for uncertain and complex situations. Even though research in decision making spans over one hundred years, there are still important problems which remain to be addressed.

There …

The Analytic Hierarchy & The Analytic Network Processes In Multicriteria Decision Making: A Comparative Study, Ali K. Taslicali

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The objective of this investigation is to identify the critical benefits and factors of decision making models in a changing technological environment. Decision making models are helping tools for the managers or decision makers to make future plans by using qualitative or quantitative data. In this research, a general idea about decision making models and, comparison between the two important models, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Analytical Network Process (ANP), are introduced. The research was done by using the information in the literature and expert judgment. This paper can be used by academics as a foundation for further …

Strategic Airlift En Route Analysis To Support The Global War On Terrorism Using A Value Focused Thinking Approach, Marykathryn W. Tharaldson

Theses and Dissertations

The Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) has yielded new challenges to the United States' strategic airlift infrastructure. The network of en-route airfields that serve as refueling and maintenance stops were designed primarily to service relatively static Cold War requirements. However, the GWOT has resulted in the need for an infrastructure that is responsive to a highly dynamic environment. This research uses a "value focused" methodology to identify en-route airfield locations that simultaneously maximize cargo throughput capability while possessing a high degree of adaptability to volatile cargo delivery requirements.

Decision Analysis With Value Focused Thinking As A Methodology To Assess Air Force Officer Retention Alternatives, Sang-Ho Moon

Theses and Dissertations

Many countries realize the importance of the retention of qualified military personnel, and have tried to solve this problem using various methods. Nevertheless, the effects of those methods have not been determined or proven yet. The military retention problem is closely related to each individual's separation decision from the military. The characteristics of this decision are multi-objective and highly subjective. Accordingly, the effectiveness of various methods is heavily dependant on the value set of each individual. Decision Analysis (DA) using Value Focused Thinking (VFT) can be an excellent process to deal with this decision. Also, the data can reflect the …

Linear Programming And Genetic Algorithm Based Optimization For The Weighting Scheme Of A Value Focused Thinking Hierarchy, David M. Thawley

Theses and Dissertations

Deriving weights for a Value Focused Thinking (VFT) hierarchy demands considerable time and input from Decision Makers (DM) and Subject Matter Experts (SME). Often, the DMs and SMEs are the leaders of companies and organizations, and this required time is unrealistic with their schedules. In these situations, as well as scenarios where there no available DMs/SMEs, conventional means of weighting a VFT hierarchy are impossible, and any VFT analysis is halted. When historical data exists on evaluation measures and performance of alternatives, linear programming and genetic algorithm based optimization may be used to derive historically optimal weights for a hierarchy. …

Modeling And Analysis Of Social Networks, Robert S. Renfro Ii

Theses and Dissertations

This dissertation develops new methods for the modeling and analysis of social networks. Social networks describe the complex relationships of individuals and groups in multiple overlapping contexts. Influence in a social network impacts behavior and decision making in every setting in which individuals participate. This study defines a methodology for modeling and analyzing this complex behavior using a Flow-Model representation. Multiple objectives in an influencing effort targeted at a social network are modeled using Goal Programming. Value Focused Thinking is applied to model influence and predict decisions based on the reaction of the psychological state of individuals to environmental stimuli. …

Technology Selection For Enhancing F-16 Capability: An Analysis Using Value Focused Thinking, Cihangir Yay

Theses and Dissertations

This study, with support of the Aeronautical Systems center, builds a scientific decision support system intended for Air Combat Command. Past decision-making techniques are discussed and their limitations are explained. Two multiattribute decision-making techniques, analytical hierarch process and value focused thinking, are studied. Due to limitations of analytical hierarchy process, value focused thinking is accepted as the best fit for our problem. A value hierarchy model is developed using value focused thinking for selecting the most beneficiary F-16 engine modifications depending on Air Combat Command values. Ten modifications are ranked using value model to validate the process. Cost is involved …

Identification Of Critical Roles Of Program Managers And Contracting Officers, Daniel R. Shingledecker

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this research was to identify current disagreement among acquisition professionals in regards to their role and authority; and to identify benefits and risks associated with combining program management and contracting officer roles into a single position. The research questions were answered through a literature review and use of the Delphi technique. The literature review indicated that the DoD has been operating with multiple conflicting perceptions of authority among its key acquisition professionals. The literature also identified the need for complex organizations, such as DoD acquisition offices, to pair high levels of responsibility with equally high levels of …

Technology Selection For The Air Force Research Laboratory Air Vehicles Directorate: An Analysis Using Value Focused Thinking, Michael F. Winthrop

Theses and Dissertations

A technology selection model was developed for the Air Vehicles Directorate of Air Force Research Laboratory. The model was developed and demonstrated to aid in addressing the question of what technologies Air Vehicles' should invest in to remain consistent with Air Force values. Both Value-Focused Thinking and optimization approaches were used to identify the value of Air Vehicles technology, to provide insights to Air Vehicles' decision-makers, to determine where value gaps might exist with the scored alternatives, and to determine how sensitive the model was to changes. As a demonstration of the approach, seven technologies were scored, representing all three …

Development Of An Operations Research Software Package For Army Divisions, Blane C. Wilson

Theses and Dissertations

There exists great potential for applying operations research techniques to solve specific problems in the areas of operations, installation support, and training at the Army division level. Because of the operational tempo of today's active-duty and reserve component units, command must focus on accomplishing the daily missions. Also, due their limited knowledge of the field, planners may not be aware of how operations research can be used to enhance planning and operations. Time, training funds, resources, safety, personnel, and equipment are all critical factors in this process. Operations research techniques could be used to improve division-level operations by saving time, …

A Methodology For Evaluating Military Systems In A Counterproliferation Role, Stanley Stafira Jr.

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis develops a methodology to evaluate how dissimilar military systems support the accomplishment of the United States? counterproliferation objectives. The overall scope is to develop a model of the counterproliferation decision process that enables systems to be evaluated against common criteria. By using decision analysis, an influence diagram model is developed which represents military activities in the counterproliferation process. The key questions which must be asked in evaluating counterproliferation systems are highlighted. An analysis of perfect intelligence, perfect defensive, and perfect offensive systems reveal that a perfect intelligence system provides the greatest potential to meet the United States' counterproliferation …