Operational Research Commons^™

Bridging Models And Real-World Performance: Capturing Represented, Hidden, And Unrepresented Dynamics In Complex Systems, Dixizi Liu

All Dissertations

Complex systems often depend on adaptive performance that is difficult to capture using structured data or formal models alone. This dissertation asks how predictive modeling, coordination-cost measurement, and simulation can be integrated to better represent the visible, hidden, and unrepresented dynamics that shape real-world system performance.

Sterile Processing Departments (SPDs) provide the empirical context for this work because they support safe and timely surgical care while operating under high workload variability, time pressure, and tight coordination with operating rooms. Hospitals rely on SPDs to clean, assemble, sterilize, and deliver surgical instrument trays so surgeries can start on time and proceed …

Structure Meets Context: A Simulation Study Of Centralized And Decentralized Decision-Making In Complex Environments, Murat Balci

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The question of when to centralize or decentralize decision-making authority is a foundational problem in organizational theory and management science. Yet existing research often favors decentralized structures, frequently treating them as universally superior, and provides limited guidance on when centralization may be more effective. Leaning toward decentralization without thoroughly exploring options leaves organizational designers without clear direction under varying environmental conditions. This study addresses that gap by developing and applying a simulation-based framework to evaluate the context-dependent effectiveness of centralized and decentralized decision-making structures.

Drawing on contingency theory and decision science, the study conceptualizes environmental complexity along two dimensions: dynamism …

Drones In Wildfire Airspace Management: Developing A Scalable Framework For Mid-Sized Cities, Victoria Denise Tanner Williamson

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Wildfires are becoming increasingly frequent and severe, creating growing risks for mid-sized communities with limited emergency response resources. The January 2025 Los Angeles wildfires—which burned more than 57,000 acres and destroyed over 18,000 structures—underscore the urgent need to strengthen wildfire response strategies through the integration of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) (Hardy, 2025).

This study develops a scalable framework for drone-assisted wildfire response in resource-constrained environments. Using the city of Waynesboro, Virginia, as a case study, the research examines how mid-sized jurisdictions can integrate unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to improve preparedness, response, and recovery. A three-round, mixed-methods Delphi study engages emergency …

Improving Cancer Diagnosis And Patient Outcomes With Deep Learning Models, Mariana Arriz-Jorquiera

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Cancer care depends on timely and reliable decisions, from detection and diagnosis to treatment planning and patient monitoring. These decisions are often made under uncertainty because medical images and healthcare data may be noisy, incomplete, or difficult to interpret. In breast cancer imaging, ultrasound is widely used because it is safe, accessible, and complementary to other imaging modalities. However, variations in image quality, acquisition conditions, and noise can obscure lesion boundaries and texture, affecting human interpretation and artificial intelligence reliability. This dissertation develops deep learning, image-analysis, and optimization methods to improve healthcare decisions under imperfect information. Its primary focus is …

From Shortage To Strategy: Optimizing Scarce Resource Allocation In Healthcare, Daniela Duran Cantarino

USF Tampa Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The allocation of scarce medical resources presents one of the most consequential challenges in health care, requiring decisions that balance equity and efficiency under pervasive uncertainty. This dissertation develops optimization-based frameworks for two critical domains, organ transplantation and emergency medical services, and demonstrates how operations research methods can improve upon current practice along both dimensions simultaneously.

In the domain of deceased-donor kidney allocation, two complementary frameworks are proposed. The first is a bi-objective stochastic optimization model that jointly maximizes post-transplant survival (efficiency) and prioritizes candidates with the highest pre-transplant mortality risk (equity), subject to regional chance constraints on graft failure …

Prediction Of Satellite Temperature During An Orbit Of A Cubesat, Michael Reynolds

Honors Theses

This thesis develops a thermal-simulation strategy for predicting CubeSat component temperatures, applied to Jag-Sat-1, a CubeSat developed at the University of South Alabama and deployed from the International Space Station in 2022. The orbit was reconstructed from two-line element (TLE) data using simplified general perturbations (SGP4) propagation, and spacecraft attitude was recovered from onboard gyroscope measurements. Sunlight, penumbra, and umbra intervals were computed geometrically, and the external radiative environment — direct solar, Earth infrared, and albedo heat fluxes — was modeled using orientation-dependent view factors. These time-varying fluxes drove a transient finite-element thermal simulation of the full satellite geometry in …

Optimizing Escort Strategies For Chokepoint And Littoral Maritime Lanes Using Mixed-Integer Programming, Shantonu Mitra

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

Protecting high-value units (HVUs) while traversing maritime chokepoints under threats is a significant challenge that requires effective planning for allocating limited naval assets (escort ships, detection capabilities, and defensive capabilities). Although the weapon-to-target assignment problem has been previously studied in the literature, the problem of allocating limited naval assets under uncertain threat scenarios remains unexplored. This research develops a two-stage stochastic optimization framework with the objective of maximizing the expected weighted survivability of HVUs across all scenarios. The first-stage decisions include assigning available escorts to HVUs, selecting locations for deploying detection capabilities, and allocating defensive capabilities to each escort prior …

Development Of A Putting Green Manufacturing Process, Tabitha R. Webster

Honors Theses

Our Capstone project investigates the end to end design, development, and production of a 6‑foot long portable putting green marketed for individuals seeking a high quality, competitively priced golf product for home or office use. The capstone project examines the full lifecycle of product creation applying manufacturing principles learned through the center of manufacturing’s coursework. From the initial concept through engineering design, market research, prototyping, manufacturing optimization, and final production the project emphasizes cross‑functional collaboration across engineering, business, and accountancy majors. Methods used to gather data included marketing surveys, CAD drawings, time studies during production runs, value stream mapping, and …

Largest 2-Regular Subgraphs In Complete S-Partite Graphs, Yiyang Jiang

McKelvey School of Engineering Graduate Student Theses & Dissertations

In this thesis, we focus on the class of complete $S$-partite graphs, for $S$ an undirected graph possibly with self-loops, and address the problem of finding largest $2$-regular subgraphs of these graphs, which can be formulated as an integer linear program. Roughly speaking, a complete $S$-partite graph is obtained by replacing every single node of $S$ with a number of nodes, preserving the edge/non-edge relations of $S$. Our motivation in studying largest $2$-regular subgraphs is rooted in the structural systems theory, particularly in the problem of finding largest subnetworks that can sustain controllability or asymptotic stability of the corresponding subsystems. …

Multi-City Travel Routing Tool: Reducing Travel Costs And Time Spent Planning Using Apis, Trey R. Merreighn

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

Travel planning is a time-consuming and ever-changing problem that can diminish the travel experience and greatly increase expenditure, if not done correctly. It is important to have an easy travel planning experience so you can enjoy the travel experience more and not waste time where it is not needed. This thesis aims to minimize the costs and time spent on travel planning using APIs and simple optimization models, creating a travel planning tool. This travel planning tool was developed in Java with the main API being Amadeus, this was combined with a greedy best-permutation heuristic to create the main route …

A Multi-Objective Optimization Framework For Equitable Stormwater Management In Urbanizing Rural Communities, Harry L. Wilson

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

Due to limited technical and financial resources, urbanizing rural communities often face growing stormwater management challenges while undergoing rapid development. This thesis proposes a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) framework that integrates topography-driven stormwater flow behavior, infrastructure placement constraints, and multiple planning objectives to support cost-effective stormwater infrastructure decisions. Our model accounts for budget constraints, gravity-driven surface water flow, infiltration capacity, and spatial contiguity requirements to determine optimal pond placements that balance flood reduction and implementation costs. A synthetic discretized grid representing a small municipality is used to demonstrate model behavior under varying rainfall and topographic conditions. Results demonstrate the framework's …

A Forecasting Framework For Distribution Center Capacity Utilization: An Applied Industry Study, Jordan J. Shortt

Data Science Undergraduate Honors Theses

This project develops and evaluates a predictive modeling framework for forecasting distribution center capacity utilization at Company Y, with monthly forecast horizons up to one year. Motivated by the operational challenges of seasonal demand volatility, promotional cycles, and the absence of a formally defined capacity metric, the study first constructs a historical capacity utilization measure from raw warehouse management system data — reconciling item volumes, location dimensions, and utilization factors across all DCs — which serves as the target variable for all modeling work. Four models are developed and evaluated against a naïve seasonal baseline: SARIMA, LightGBM, LSTM, and a …

Optimizing College Food Pantry Locker Systems Through Simulation Techniques, Jacob W. Holmes

Industrial Engineering Undergraduate Honors Theses

Food insecurity affects 10.5% of households in the United States. Among those affected, college students are a group with increasing food insecurity. Through novel food pantry order methods, such as locker order systems, some effects of college food insecurity can be alleviated. The Jane B. Gearhart Full Circle Food Pantry (FCFP) at the University of Arkansas implemented a locker system, beginning in the Fall of 2020. There is a lack of investigation into locker management policies for pantries, such as how much time clients should be allowed to pick up orders after they are placed in lockers, how many lockers …

Decision Making For Large-Scale Problems Under Uncertainty And Conflict, Benjamin J. Hamlin

All Dissertations

Large-scale decision-making problems appear in many areas including long-range forecasting such as energy generation forecasting. Many such problems are subject to conflicting objectives and uncertain data, and can be modeled as linear optimization problems. We study novel theoretical results and algorithms for large-scale linear decision problems under conflict and uncertainty. First, we propose a parametric Benders decomposition algorithm for solving large-scale linear optimization problems with multiple objectives or deterministically uncertain objectives. Second, we extend the parametric Benders decomposition to a multi-stage setting, developing a parametric stochastic dual dynamic programming algorithm, which enables decision-making when conflicts and uncertainty have planning impacts …

Optimal Allocation Of Flexible Servers In Healthcare Systems, Tong Zhang

All Dissertations

This dissertation investigates the optimization of worker allocation in healthcare systems, focusing on flexible staffing models and the strategic prioritization of healthcare tasks. This research explores the dynamics among pre-operative, operative, and post-operative care units under various cost and service-rate constraints, using a series of models that represent realistic healthcare scenarios within a comprehensive framework for improving patient flow and reducing waiting costs.

In Chapter 2, we model and analyze cross-trained nurse allocation policies within an inpatient surgical system. We model the surgical system as a tandem clearing queueing system and formulate Markov decision processes under different business rules governing …

Improving Transfer Portal Decision-Making Through A Microsoft Excel Optimization Model, Peyton Steffes

Honors Projects

The creation of the transfer portal has increased the mobility of collegiate athletes, giving players the autonomy to switch teams throughout their career. As a result, the roster development process has become more complex, as coaches are tasked with the challenge of recruiting from the transfer portal, which involves an extensive decision-making process. Coaches not only have to evaluate a substantial pool of players, but they also must consider the following constraints they are under: scholarship budget, roster spots available, and positional needs. To simplify this decision-making process, this analysis includes the results of a Microsoft Excel data optimization model …

A Capability Maturity Model For Artificial Intelligence Integration In Supply Chain Management, Lordt Becklines

Dissertations

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is transforming Supply Chain Management (SCM), yet many organizations struggle to assess their readiness for AI adoption and to understand how AI capabilities develop across maturity stages. This dissertation addresses this gap by developing a Capability Maturity Model (CMM) for AI integration in SCM, grounded in Organizational Information Processing Theory (OIPT), the Resource-Based View, and related capability frameworks. The model provides a structured approach for evaluating an organization's information-processing requirements, resource configurations, and alignment needed for effective AI-enabled supply chain operations.

Using a design science research approach, the AI-SCM CMM and its associated assessment instrument were derived …

Challenges And Best Practices For The Development Of Coastal Hazard Decision Support Tools, Noah Hallisey

Open Access Dissertations

There is growing interest in developing Decision Support Tools (DSTs) supporting emergency managers and other decision-makers during coastal storm events. Yet many tools fail to inform decision-making due to challenges associated with their development and transition into operational tools for real-time decision-making. This dissertation investigates these challenges and offers best practices for their development and implementation for real-world decision-making through a literature review, interviews with subject matter experts in the United States, and a real-world case study.

Manuscript 1 reviews existing published literature to understand whether and how tool developers are incorporating emergency managers in the development of DSTs and …

An Integrated Pull System Framework For Disassembly Industries: Bridging The Supply-Demand Mismatch In Duck Meat Processing, Hongchao Yu

Graduate Research Theses & Dissertations

Disassembly-based production systems, such as duck meat processing, face inherent operational challenges due to one-to-many production structures, short product shelf life, and volatile customer demand. A single carcass must be processed into multiple products at largely fixed biological ratios, while demand varies across products and over time. This supply-demand mismatch frequently leads to simultaneous surplus and shortage, resulting in unstable shipment schedules, excess inventory, and unavoidable waste. Traditional order-driven pull systems typically respond to orders independently and are limited in their ability to coordinate these interrelated effects.

This dissertation develops an integrated pull system framework for perishable disassembly processes, using …

Lean Service System Optimization In U.S. Automotive Maintenance Centers: A Time Study And Simulation-Based Approach To Reducing Service Cycle Time And Increasing Efficiency, Rakibul Hasan Sarker

All Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Other Capstone Projects

The primary objective of this study is to measure the current service time at a U.S. automobile service center, with the aim of reducing waste and optimizing service operations through time study and simulation modeling. Inefficiencies in those service centers increase service time and labor costs, reduce service quality, and reduce workshop productivity, thereby increasing customer waiting time. In this study, real-world shop floor data were collected from a single service center, namely Jiffy Lube. Over the course of ten working days, 205 vehicle data points were acquired. Service time, bay time, and overall process time were computed and examined …

Gpu-Accelerated Biased Random-Key Genetic Algorithms: Framework Optimization And Llm-Driven Configuration, Fnu Harishjitu Saseendran

Open Access Master's Theses

This thesis presents two complementary contributions to the field of GPU-accelerated evolutionary metaheuristics for combinatorial optimization, organized in manuscript format.

The first manuscript, “BrkgaCuda 3.0: A Redesigned Multi-GPU Framework for Biased Random-Key Genetic Algorithms,” presents a ground-up architectural redesign of BrkgaCuda 2.0 that enables a true multi-GPU island model for Biased Random-Key Genetic Algorithms (BRKGA). The BRKGA island model evolves multiple semi-independent populations that periodically exchange elite solutions, a structure that maps naturally to multi-GPU parallelism; however, BrkgaCuda 2.0 is confined to a single GPU. BrkgaCuda 3.0 introduces an IslandManager that distributes populations across any number of GPUs, with multiple …

Simulation Optimization Of Intermodal Freight Transportation Under Disruptions, Israt Humayra

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

Rapid growth in freight transportation in modern supply chains has led to increased operational costs, congestion, and severe environmental impacts, especially greenhouse gas emissions. Combining different modes, such as highway, railway, and waterway, intermodal transportation could thus offer considerable benefit to improve efficiency, sustainability, and resilience. However, most existing planning approaches rely on simplified assumptions, fixed schedules, and average cost estimates, making them less relevant to dealing with real-world uncertainties and disruptions. This study develops a simulation-optimization framework for intermodal freight transportation under disruption. We develop a mixed-integer programming model to represent an intermodal logistics planning framework on a multi-layered …

The Iron Pyramid: Expanding The Iron Triangle To Integrate Safety As A Fundamental Dimension Of Construction Success, Laura Cooley

All Theses

For more than fifty years, construction project success has been judged by staying on schedule, remaining within budget, and completing the planned scope of work—an approach commonly known as the “Iron Triangle” (Barnes, Ph.D., 2006). While these measures are important, they do not capture the full range of factors that determine whether a project truly succeeds.

This study introduces the “Iron Pyramid” (Cooley, 2025), a model that expands the traditional framework by adding a fourth dimension: safety. Safety is understood not simply as regulatory compliance or the absence of injuries, but as a holistic construct encompassing project culture, leadership practices, …

Detecting Electrical Submersible Pump (Esp) Failures And Estimating Run Life Using Artificial Neural Networks, Mostafa Ahmed Sobhy

Theses and Dissertations

Electric Submersible Pumps (ESPs) are one of the important artificial lift methods for sustaining production in mature and high-water-cut wells; but may suffer frequent failures due to mechanical, electrical, hydraulic, chemical, and operational failures. These failures can yield substantial deferred production and intervention costs. Plenty of ESP installations are fitted with downhole sensors. Yet, it is observed that the current industry practice underutilizes the wealth of available sensor and operational data and lacks standardized, explainable failure-type identification and classification.

In this thesis, a comprehensive Machine Learning (ML) and Deep Learning (DL) framework was introduced for ESPs that simultaneously estimates remaining …

Automation Of Lcmc Logistics Processes: A Delphi Approach, Kline M. Alt

Theses and Dissertations

As the U.S. Air Force confronts growing complexity in system acquisition, the implementation of digital models in system design and logistics process management allows the incorporation of digital tools and the possibility for automation of portions of logistics processes. This thesis investigates where these technologies can be most effectively integrated within the Air Force Life Cycle Management Center logistics enterprise (AFLCMC). Using a three round Delphi study, AFLCMC logistics subject matter expert (SME) opinions were solicited from program-level senior logisticians, program managers to identify high-need areas, key success factors, and potential barriers to adoption. Quantitative consensus from Likert-scale and ordinal …

Köppen-Geiger Climate Effects On F-15 Readiness Spares Package Parts, Maximus A. Fan

Theses and Dissertations

Readiness Spares Packages (RSP) are critical to deployed operations. Future demands of the Air Force require squadrons to operate in different climate environments from home stations. RSPs can sustain aircraft maintenance operations for up to 30 days. Currently, failure rates of parts within the RSP are assumed to be constant. This research aims to explore whether there is a difference in F-15 RSP failure rates when Koeppen climate classifications are taken into effect. The Koeppen-Geiger system classifies area climates based on the geography, elevation, and location. The history of operations and diversity of F-15 locations make the aircraft an ideal …

Multi-Stage Stochastic Programming For Disaster Relief Logistics Under Forecast Uncertainty, Sudhan Bhattarai

All Dissertations

Hurricanes are among the most destructive annual disasters in the United States, presenting interdependent challenges for evacuation planning and relief-supply logistics. Coordinating evacuation and relief operations is crucial to ensure the timely and effective movement of at-risk populations and the delivery of essential supplies. This dissertation develops and evaluates three progressively advanced multi-stage stochastic programming (MSSP) frameworks that integrate evacuation and relief-item pre-positioning while explicitly accounting for uncertainty in hurricane forecasts.

Chapter 1 introduces a fully adaptive MSSP model for the integrated hurricane relief logistics and evacuation planning (IHRLEP) problem. The model simultaneously optimizes evacuation flows and inventory pre-positioning over …

Trauma Network Design Considering Patient Safety And Cost., Lin Lin

Electronic Theses and Dissertations

Trauma, as the leading cause of mortality and morbidity for those under the age of 45 in the US, incurs trillions in annual economic costs. The time-sensitive nature of trauma treatment necessitates an effective, coordinated regional trauma system to optimize patient safety. However, the financial burden associated with trauma care, especially due to low-insured population, presents a significant challenge to the financial health of trauma centers (TCs). To address critical challenges in this domain and provide much-needed insights to trauma decision-makers regarding their trauma system cost, network design, and subsidy policy, this dissertation proposes 3 contributions. First, we introduce an …

Replacement Optimization For Offshore Wind Turbine Farms, Morteza Soltani

All Dissertations

This dissertation is concerned with devising optimal replacement policies for offshore wind turbines with a focus on minimizing the costs associated with major component replacements and production losses due to downtime. Like their onshore counterparts, offshore wind turbines are subject to progressive degradation due to normal operations, as well as the influence of dynamic environmental conditions that influence their rate of degradation. Due to their proximity, wind farm turbines share common environmental conditions, as well as specialized maintenance resources. Their common exposure to the environment and need to share resources introduce both stochastic and economic dependence between the wind turbines. …

Optimizing Park Locations While Considering Resident Behavior, Lu Liu

All Theses

Urban parks and green-spaces significantly enhance community well-being by improving physical health, mental wellness, and environmental quality. Given these extensive benefits, ensuring fair and widespread access to urban parks represents a critical priority in urban planning. Despite the advantages of parks, optimizing their location poses unique and complex challenges distinct from traditional facility location problems, such as those involving emergency services or schools. The core distinction arises from the decentralized nature of residents’ park selection behaviors. Unlike centralized allocations typically managed by public administrators, park usage decisions are driven by individual preferences and behaviors. This decentralized decision-making introduces two additional …