Operational Research Commons^™

Modeling Urban Warfare: Joint Semi-Automated Forces In Urban Resolve, Alexander B. Anastasiou

Theses and Dissertations

The United States military is performing operations in urban environments with increasing frequency. Current Department of Defense doctrine is poorly suited to train and equip today's warriors with the tools and experience necessary to fight and win in modern sprawling cities. In order to "close the gap," the U.S. Joint Forces Command's Joint Experimentation Directorate led an effort to run a massively distributed simulation of a synthetic urban environment utilizing human-in-the-loop operators called URBAN RESOLVE. The synthetic environment simulated the city of Jakarta with over 1,000,000 buildings and structures and over 120,000 civilian entities. A Red force retreated into the …

An Epidemiological Approach To Terrorism, Kjirstin A. Bentson

Theses and Dissertations

There are many types of models for counterterrorism, explaining different problems that the military faces in the fight against terrorism. This thesis proposes that one of the fundamental assumptions underlying existing models of counterterrorism is that the struggle with terrorists can be understood as a war in the traditional sense of the term. We propose to rethink the struggle against terrorism as a fight against an infection. The epidemic of terrorist ideology within part of the world is a result, from this perspective, of the infectiousness of that ideology. Using the insights of the field of the epidemiology of ideas, …

Optimal Periodic Inspection Of A Stochastically Degrading System, Timothy B. Booher

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis develops and analyzes a procedure to determine the optimal inspection interval that maximizes the limiting average availability of a stochastically degrading component operating in a randomly evolving environment. The component is inspected periodically, and if the total observed cumulative degradation exceeds a fixed threshold value, the component is instantly replaced with a new, statistically identical component. Degradation is due to a combination of continuous wear caused by the component's random operating environment, as well as damage due to randomly occurring shocks of random magnitude. In order to compute an optimal inspection interval and corresponding limiting average availability, a …

Discrete Event Simulation Model Of The Ground Maintenance Operations Cycle Of A Reusable Launch Vehicle, John T. Pope Iii

Theses and Dissertations

The Air Force uses a family of expendable launch vehicles to meet its spacelift needs. Unfortunately, this method is not responsive: months of preparation are typically required and launch costs are high. Consequently, the Air Force seeks a reusable military launch vehicle that can be launched inexpensively and quickly regenerated between flights. Air Force Research Laboratory personnel desire a tool to help evaluate candidate designs and perform tradeoff studies necessary to acquire a launch vehicle that will achieve Air Force goals. The objective of this research was first to develop a conceptual model of maintenance operations needed to regenerate a …

A Discrete Event Simulation Model For Evaluating Air Force Reusable Military Launch Vehicle Prelaunch Operations, Adam T. Stiegelmeier

Theses and Dissertations

As the control and exploitation of space becomes more important to the United States military, a responsive spacelift capability will become essential. Responsive spacelift could be defined as the ability to launch a vehicle within hours or days from the time a launch order is given, instead of the weeks or months it takes currently. As the Air Force contemplates moving toward a reusable military launch vehicle (RMLV) capability, it faces key design and ground processing decisions that will affect the vehicle regeneration timeline. This thesis develops a computer simulation model that mimics RMLV prelaunch operations-those activities that take place …

Combining Quality Of Service And Topology Control In Directional Hybrid Wireless Networks, Michael C. Erwin

Theses and Dissertations

Recent advancements in information and communications technology are changing the information environment in both quantitative and qualitative measures. The developments in directional wireless capabilities necessitate the ability to model these new capabilities, especially in dynamic environments typical of military combat operations. This thesis establishes a foundation for the definition and consideration of the unique network characteristics and requirements introduced by this novel instance of the Network Design Problem (NDP). Developed are a Mixed-Integer Linear Program (MILP) formulation and two heuristic strategies for solving the NDP. A third solution strategy using the MILP formulation with a degree-constrained Minimum Spanning Tree starting …

Optimizing Mean Mission Duration For Multiple-Payload Satellites, John A. Flory

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis addresses the problem of optimally selecting and specifying satellite payloads for inclusion on a satellite bus to be launched into a constellation. The objective is to select and specify payloads so that the total lifetime utility of the constellation is maximized. The satellite bus is limited by finite power, weight, volume, and cost constraints. This problem is modeled as a classical knapsack problem in one and multiple dimensions, and dynamic programming and binary integer programming formulations are provided to solve the problem. Due to the computational complexity of the problem, the solution techniques include exact methods as well …

A Risk Assessment Methodology For Divesting Military Capabilities To Allied Nations, Jason A. Gastelum

Theses and Dissertations

The United States spent over $400 billion dollars on national defense in 2005. Even with support for the war on terrorism still strong, it is doubtful that the U.S. can sustain such a level of defense investment. One strategy to offset the increasing burden of defense spending is to divest the procurement and/or sustainment of individual defense capabilities to allied nations. The decision to divest any capability, however, introduces risk. This thesis presents a methodology to quantify the risk of the decision to divest a military capability to an allied nation, where risk is defined as the set of risk …

Classification Characteristics Of Carbon Nanotube Polymer Composite Chemical Vapor Detectors, Huynh A. Hinshaw

Theses and Dissertations

The first step in combating a chemical weapons threat is contamination avoidance. This is accomplished by the detection and identification of chemical agents. The Air Force has several instruments to detect chemical vapors, but is always looking for lighter, faster, and more accurate technology for a better capability. This research is focused on using carbon nanotube polymer composite sensors for chemical detection. More specifically, models are developed to classify three sets of sensor data according to vapor using various multivariate techniques. Also, prediction models of a mixed sensor output are developed using neural networks and regression analysis. The classifiers developed …

Analysis Of Patient Information: An Empirical Modeling Approach, Tony A. Murphy

Theses and Dissertations

With rising costs and increasing complexities, many hospitals seek to better understand the intricate details of their operations. Increasingly, these organizations have a strong desire to accurately predict the resources required to effectively treat their patient load. This research investigates patient length-of-stay in a hospital neurological unit using an empirical modeling approach. Factors significantly affecting patient length of stay were identified and used to construct a regression model. The predictive model provides hospital decision makers with a compact tool to input what-if scenarios and predict future patient treatment lengths, thus, allowing the hospital to properly allocate resources.

A Multi-Pass Construction Heuristic For The Aggregated Airlift Problem, Stephen T. O'Leary

Theses and Dissertations

To support the capabilities for precision strike, close air support, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, air mobility and air refueling the Air Force has over 26,000 Airmen deployed from over 80 military installations to Forward Operating Locations (FOLs) in over 21 countries. This research creates a multi-pass construction heuristic to solve the aggregated airlift problem associated with the transportation of these 26,000 deployed Airmen. We are given a Time Phased Force Deployment Document (TPFDD) containing a list of personnel scheduled for deployment, their base of origin, Point of Debarkation (POD), FOL, and Required Delivery Date (RDD). The goal is to aggregate the …

Optimization Of A Multi-Echelon Repair System Via Generalized Pattern Search With Ranking And Selection: A Computational Study, Derek D. Tharaldson

Theses and Dissertations

With increasing developments in computer technology and available software, simulation is becoming a widely used tool to model, analyze, and improve a real world system or process. However, simulation in itself is not an optimization approach. Common optimization procedures require either an explicit mathematical formulation or numerous function evaluations at improving iterative points. Mathematical formulation is generally impossible for problems where simulation is relevant, which are characteristically the types of problems that arise in practical applications. Further complicating matters is the variability in the simulation response which can cause problems in iterative techniques using the simulation model as a function …

Strategic Airlift En Route Analysis To Support The Global War On Terrorism Using A Value Focused Thinking Approach, Marykathryn W. Tharaldson

Theses and Dissertations

The Global War on Terrorism (GWOT) has yielded new challenges to the United States' strategic airlift infrastructure. The network of en-route airfields that serve as refueling and maintenance stops were designed primarily to service relatively static Cold War requirements. However, the GWOT has resulted in the need for an infrastructure that is responsive to a highly dynamic environment. This research uses a "value focused" methodology to identify en-route airfield locations that simultaneously maximize cargo throughput capability while possessing a high degree of adaptability to volatile cargo delivery requirements.

A Methodology For Performing Effects-Based Assessments, Benjamin A. Thoele

Theses and Dissertations

In order to bring the doctrine of Effects-Based Operations (EBO) into a fully operational capability, Effects-Based Assessment (EBA) must provide relevant insight to the commander and his planning staff. Assessments of an effects-based plan and execution must include an assessment of the effects of a campaign on the enemy in addition to an assessment of the accomplishment of friendly actions taken to achieve the desired effects. Determining the effects of a campaign requires an analysis of the dynamics of the enemy systems. EBA must be able to recognize the states of the enemy's systems as the system states change over …

Assessing Resource Value And Relationships Between Objectives In Effects-Based Operations, Robert D. Jones

Theses and Dissertations

The purpose of this research was developing techniques to calculate the value of a resource within the context of campaign objectives, to identify competing objectives, and to identify conflicting objectives to improve a commander’s ability to allocate limited resources. A methodology was developed to express a campaign’s objective hierarchy in terms of a set of desired end states for the campaign’s system of systems. Value theory was used to identify the resource's value in terms of the direct and indirect effects that are produced to achieve the campaign’s objectives. Binding resource constraints within an integer program were used to identify …

Process Modeling For Simulation, John Ryan, Cathal Heavey

Articles

This paper discusses shortfalls in relation to the requirements gathering phases of simulation. While many developments have taken place around supporting the model coding task of simulation, there are few tools available to assist in the requirements gathering phase. This is surprising as it has been reported by several researchers that the requirements phase can absorb twice as much resources as the coding phase. There are numerous process modeling tools available (over 100) that can and have been used to support the requirements phase of simulation. This paper provides a selective review of some of the most important in relation …

Class Exercise For Assessing Abilities And Providing A Structure For A Course, Paul Savory

Department of Industrial and Management Systems Engineering: Instructional Materials

I developed this class exercise to assess students abilities and to highlight the range of questions/issues that they will learn in my IMSE 440/840 (Discrete Event Computer Simulation) course. I draw a picture of the case scenario for students and explain the system’s operation to them. I then ask that they complete the questions regarding the system and/or how they would analyze it. Following class, I develop a summary of the range of student answers. At the next class session, I share the range of answers and share what my answers would be and how these questions/topics relate to what …

A Dyadic Composition To Foster Virtual Team Effectiveness: An Experimental Study, Gamze Karayaz

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

The importance of effectiveness for virtual teamwork continues to gain momentum as technology and globalization of work accelerate. The implementation of virtual teams provides one approach to enhance competitiveness, overcoming the disadvantages of space and time differences through collaborative technologies. The influence of structure to virtual team performance has not been clearly established in the literature. The purpose of this research study was to investigate the effectiveness of a dyad structured approach for virtual teams using a quasi-experimental research design.

This research investigated four questions related to the influence of structure on virtual team effectiveness related to task performance, communication …

A Template-Based Data Specification Framework For Modeling Physical Security Systems, Ashu Guru, Paul Savory

Department of Industrial and Management Systems Engineering: Faculty Publications

Simulation studies often fail to provide any useful results due to its success being highly dependent on the skills of the analyst to understand a system and then correctly identify all the required data parameters and dependent variables. This paper describes a template-based framework to help identify and specify the components and data parameters for developing models of physical security systems. The layered framework consists of fifteen templates built on top of fourteen data primitives representing 119 data parameters. The modeling framework has been programmed as an internet-based web application and is simulation language independent. The usefulness of the framework …

Combat Identification With Sequential Observations, Rejection Option, And Out-Of-Library Targets, Timothy W. Albrecht

Theses and Dissertations

This research extends a mathematical framework to select the optimal sensor ensemble and fusion method across multiple decision thresholds subject to warfighter constraints for a combat identification (CID) system. The formulation includes treatment of exemplars from target classes on which the CID system classifiers are not trained (out-of-library classes) and enables the warfighter to optimize a CID system without explicit enumeration of classifier error costs. A time-series classifier design methodology is developed and applied, yielding a multi-variate Gaussian hidden Markov model (HMM). The extended CID framework is used to compete the HMM-based CID system against a template-based CID system. The …

Predicting The Cost Per Flying Hour For The F-16 Using Programmatic And Operational Variables, Eric M. Hawkes

Theses and Dissertations

This research analyzes operational and programmatic data from all Air National Guard and 13 of 14 active duty F-16C/D Fighter Wings (FW) from 1998 to 2004 in search of explanatory variables that influence a wing's Cost Per Flying Hour (CPFH). Using data from both the Air Force Total Ownership Cost database and from the Air Force Knowledge Systems database, this research evaluates the predictive ability of the following nine explanatory variables: aircraft age, average sortie duration, MajCOM, base location, utilization rate, percent engine type, percent block, percent deployed, and previous year's CPFH, the last four of which were previously untested. …

Quantifying Vulnerability To Critical Infrastructure, Barry Charles Ezell

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Military and civilian leaders have the responsibility to protect our Nation's critical infrastructure, communities, and symbols of American power from terrorists, home and abroad, as well as from natural disasters. To this end, assessments are conducted to reduce vulnerability. The literature offers multiple definitions of vulnerability and measurement has not been adequately addressed. Thus, the purpose of this research has been to develop and deploy a systems-based model that quantifies vulnerability to critical infrastructure. This research defines critical infrastructure vulnerability as a measure of the susceptibility of critical infrastructure to threat scenarios. Vulnerability is a function of (1) threat scenario, …

A Systems Methodology For Measuring Operational Organization Effectiveness: A Study Of The Original Equipment Computer Manufacturing Industry, 1948 To 2001, Teddy Steven Cotter

Engineering Management & Systems Engineering Theses & Dissertations

Optimizing operational organizational effectiveness is the central, although often unstated, goal of engineering management and systems engineering research and applications. Two fundamental problems remain to be addressed in pursuit of this goal. First, despite over fifty years of research in various disciplines, there is still no universally accepted definition of organizational effectiveness. Second, no methodology exists to identify the domains, dimensions, and determinants of operational organizational effectiveness and dynamically model operational organizational effectiveness within a given population.

This research synthesizes a systems engineering methodology for identifying the domains, dimensions, and determinants of and dynamically modeling operational organizational effectiveness for an …

Modeling And Analysis Of Clandestine Networks, Clinton R. Clark

Theses and Dissertations

Since Sept. 11, 2001, there has been great interest in the military and intelligence communities in using Social Network Analysis (SNA) to support the disruption and destruction of global terrorist networks. SNA results, however, tend to be descriptive and are limited due to the lack of advantageous properties of the relationship measures applied to the arcs in a social network. Further, SNA techniques generally focus on a single network context while real relationships are based in multiple contexts. This thesis develops a new proxy measure of pair-wise potential influence between members of a network, a Holistic Interpersonal Influence Measure (HIIM). …

Optimization Model For Base-Level Delivery Routes And Crew Scheduling, Young-Ho Cha

Theses and Dissertations

In the U.S. Air Force, a Logistic Readiness Squadron (LRS) provides material management, distribution, and oversight of contingency operations. Dispatchers in the LRS must quickly prepare schedules that meet the needs of their customers while dealing with real-world constraints, such as time windows, delivery priorities, and intermittent recurring missions. Currently, LRS vehicle operation elements are faced with a shortage of manpower and lack an efficient scheduling algorithm and tool. The purpose of this research is to enhance the dispatchers' capability to handle flexible situations and produce "good" schedules within current manpower restrictions. In this research, a new scheduling model and …

A Multiple-Case Analysis Of Lean Six Sigma Deployment And Implementation Strategies, Peter M. O'Rourke

Theses and Dissertations

Lean and Six Sigma are recent developments in continuous improvement methodology that have been popularized by several high-profile companies. The success and complementary nature of these methodologies has led to their combination into a single methodology, commonly called Lean Six Sigma or Lean Sigma. Although there is considerable literature available and many consultants involved with Lean Six Sigma, very little published research addresses the practical experiences of companies that have implemented Lean Six Sigma. The research question for this research is: How and why are certain private sector implementations of Lean Six Sigma successful or unsuccessful? The investigative questions further …

Feasibility Study Of Variance Reduction In The Thunder Campaign-Level Model, Earl M. Bednar

Theses and Dissertations

As an Air Force Chief of Staff endorsed topic, Air Force Studies and Analyses Agency (AFSAA) requested an effective and efficient way to reduce the variance in analysis results from THUNDER. THUNDER is a large-scale discrete event simulation of campaign-level military operations and is used to examine issues involving the utility and effectiveness of air and space power in a theater-level, joint warfare context. Given the large number of stochastic components within THUNDER, results are produced with highly variable measures of effectiveness (MOEs), causing difficulties in evaluating alternative force structures, weapon systems, etc. This work responds to AFSAA's request by …

Optimal Sampling Of A Chemical Hazard Area, Jennifer R. Plourde

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis proposes a methodology for optimally sampling a chemical hazard area subsequent to a chemical weapons attack. The objective is to identify the maximum number of areas that no longer require protective gear for safe operations. We model the area as an undirected graph and employ network analysis techniques to provide a methodological framework for identifying an optimal sampling sequence within a fixed time limit. We propose four models that characterize the secondary vapor concentrations: i) static and deterministic, ii) static and stochastic, iii) dynamic and deterministic, and iv) dynamic and stochastic. Comparisons of the static cases and their …

Developing New Multidimensional Knapsack Heuristics Based On Empirical Analysis Of Legacy Heuristics, Yong Kun Cho

Theses and Dissertations

The multidimensional knapsack problem (MKP) has been used to model a variety of practical optimization and decision-making applications. Due to its combinatorial nature, heuristics are often employed to quickly find good solutions to MKPs. While there have been a variety of heuristics proposed for the MKP, and a plethora of empirical studies comparing the performance of these heuristics, little has been done to garner a deeper understanding of heuristic performance as a function of problem structure. This dissertation presents a research methodology, empirical and theoretical results explicitly aimed at gaining a deeper understanding of heuristic procedural performance as a function …

An Analysis Into The Effectiveness Of Aircraft Maintenance Under The Combat Wing Structure, Derrick R. Barthol

Theses and Dissertations

Organizational structure builds the foundation from which organizations operate. To gain full potential of structural efficiencies in the current operating environment, public and private firms are continually modifying their organizational structure. The U.S. Air Force is no different and underwent its most recent reorganization in the fall of 2002 replacing the post-Gulf War format of the previous decade. Air Force leadership needs to understand how well the current structure is performing at achieving its intended objectives. This research investigates the effectiveness of the recent change to Air Force organizational structure on aircraft maintenance performance through an analysis of aircraft maintenance …