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Spatial-Dynamic Visualization Of Long-Term Scenarios For Demographic, Social-Economic And Environmental Change In Flanders, Jean-Luk De Kok, Lien Poelmans, Guy Engelen, Inge Uljee, Leen Van Esch Jul 2012

Spatial-Dynamic Visualization Of Long-Term Scenarios For Demographic, Social-Economic And Environmental Change In Flanders, Jean-Luk De Kok, Lien Poelmans, Guy Engelen, Inge Uljee, Leen Van Esch

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Land-use change in Flanders is characterized by a rapidly growing proportion of the hard surfaced area with on-going ribbon development and an increasing pressure on the remaining open space. The Spatially-Dynamic Land-Use Model for Flanders or RuimteModel Vlaanderen has been developed for the Flemish Ministry of the Environment and the Flemish Ministry of Spatial Planning and Housing to examine the underlying causes of spatial transformations at different scale levels. The model uses a constrained cellular automata approach, incorporating 35 residential, economic and natural land uses to describe annual land-use change in Flanders for the period 2010-2050. In a scenario exercise …

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A Methodology For The Characterization Of Intelligent Environmental Decision Support Systems, Miquel Sànchez-Marrè, Karina Gibert, A. Cabello, F. Sem Jul 2012

A Methodology For The Characterization Of Intelligent Environmental Decision Support Systems, Miquel Sànchez-Marrè, Karina Gibert, A. Cabello, F. Sem

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The issue of the paper is to propose a methodology to characterize and describe any Intelligent Environmental Decision Support System (IEDSS). This characterization is necessary to analyse the IEDSSs built until now, to improve their abilities and their current output information. The methodology proposes a selection of a set of features to characterize all IEDSS, and in general, IDSS. The main characteristics of Intelligent Decision Support Systems have been identified through an accurate analysis of cognitive tasks, and several layers involved in this kind of systems. The resulting analysis has been implemented in a form. This form takes into account …

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Ict, Integral Models And New Methods Support Farmer´S And Forester´S Integration Into Environmental Caretaking And Risk-Management, H Mayer Di Walte Jul 2012

Ict, Integral Models And New Methods Support Farmer´S And Forester´S Integration Into Environmental Caretaking And Risk-Management, H Mayer Di Walte

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Farmers and foresters – in total worldwide more than 2 billion people - manage large parts of most of the countries, in some 90% or more. Rich, risk-exposure countries with beautiful nature like Austria or Switzerland due to mountains did a lot of excellent environmental caretaking because of intensive tourism and reduced with the help of government existing risks, supported by legislation, avalanche-, torrent- or river- departments, land consolidation units, Chambers of Agriculture, Ministerial departments etc. and were supported by farmers with a general concept: Managing a farm or forest correctly, manages also the environment well. EC´s GAP (Good Agricultural …

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Exploring The Utility Of Risk Management As An Integrating Framework For The Development And Application Of Water Resource Planning Tools, S. M. Cuddy, C. A. Pollino Jul 2012

Exploring The Utility Of Risk Management As An Integrating Framework For The Development And Application Of Water Resource Planning Tools, S. M. Cuddy, C. A. Pollino

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Impacts from overallocation and drought have caused a widespread decline in the ecological health of river systems within Australia and elsewhere. Within the Murray-Darling Basin of Australia, a whole-of-Basin Plan, as described in the Australian Government’s Water Act 2007, is being developed to redress issues of overallocation of water resources. The Act requires an identification of the risks to the condition, or continued availability, of the water resources within the Basin; and strategies to be adopted to manage, or address, these risks. This legal requirement to consider risk, while adding another dimension to what is already a very complex multi-layered …

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Modelling Land Use Change And Its Spatial Variability For Ecosystem Services Assessments, Marie Castellazzi, I. Brown, L. Poggio, Alessandro Gimona Jul 2012

Modelling Land Use Change And Its Spatial Variability For Ecosystem Services Assessments, Marie Castellazzi, I. Brown, L. Poggio, Alessandro Gimona

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Ecosystem services (ES) assessments are relying upon scenarios to explore the impacts of potential land use changes [UK NEA 2011], and to explore the possible land use pathways leading to desirable ES targets (using a normative approach). The scenario framework acknowledges the high uncertainty inherent to land use changes [Goodwin and Wright 2010] and a stochastic approach to land use modelling would provide some useful support. Moreover, for ES assessment, land use modelling needs to consider that i) some services are dependent upon fine land use mosaics (e.g. pollination, water quality), ii) decision-making is linked to spatial units, and iii) …

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The Role Of Social Interaction In Farmers’ Climate Adaptation Choice, Rianne Van Duinen, Tatiana Filatova, Anne Van Der Veen Jul 2012

The Role Of Social Interaction In Farmers’ Climate Adaptation Choice, Rianne Van Duinen, Tatiana Filatova, Anne Van Der Veen

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Adaptation to climate change might not always occur, with potentially catastrophic results. Success depends on coordinated actions at both governmental and individual levels (public and private adaptation). Even for a “wet” country like the Netherlands, climate change projections show that the frequency and severity of droughts are likely to increase. Freshwater is an important factor for agricultural production. A deficit causes damage to crop production and consequently to a loss of income. Adaptation is the key to decrease farmers’ vulnerability at the micro level and the sector’s vulnerability at the macro level. Individual adaptation decision-making is determined by the behavior …

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Developing And Integrating A Simulation Model Of Water Resources Supply And Demand Within An On-Going Governance Building Process : A Case Study In Thau Catchment, South Of France., Geraldine Abrami, Audrey Richard-Ferroudji, Sylvain Barone, Olivier Barreteau, Camille Tessier Jul 2012

Developing And Integrating A Simulation Model Of Water Resources Supply And Demand Within An On-Going Governance Building Process : A Case Study In Thau Catchment, South Of France., Geraldine Abrami, Audrey Richard-Ferroudji, Sylvain Barone, Olivier Barreteau, Camille Tessier

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

A companion modeling process about water resources supply and demand at the scale of a catchment in partnership with the catchment management institution and with intermediary level stakeholders of the different sectors of water use, production and distribution in the territory is being held in the Thau catchment, near Montpellier in South of France. This companion modeling process has been shaped by both a scientific questioning about interactions between land and water dynamics and governance within a catchment and the history of collaborations between the research team and the case study partners. It was initiated by the catchment management institution’s …

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Global Multiscale Hydrologic Web Services, Steve Kopp, Dean Djokic, Nawajish Noman Jul 2012

Global Multiscale Hydrologic Web Services, Steve Kopp, Dean Djokic, Nawajish Noman

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

There are two problems slowing widespread adoption of spatially enabled hydrologic analysis, accessibility of data, and ease of use. This paper will describe and illustrate a system for sharing hydrologic analyses (geoprocessing) services and workflows that empowers GIS professionals, scientists, and citizens by making water data and its analysis accessible to a wide audience. The system leverages recent evolutions and standards in the information technology and GIS industries, particularly web services accessed through simple geospatial browser applications, cloud computing, and the increasing amount of elevation and hydrologic observations data. The GIS foundation of the system includes a high cartographic quality …

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Domain Specific Languages For Modeling And Simulation: Use Case Oms3, Olaf David, Wesley Lloyd, James C. Ascough Ii, Timothy R. Green, Kevin Olson, George Leavesley, Jack R. Carlson Jul 2012

Domain Specific Languages For Modeling And Simulation: Use Case Oms3, Olaf David, Wesley Lloyd, James C. Ascough Ii, Timothy R. Green, Kevin Olson, George Leavesley, Jack R. Carlson

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

A domain-specific language (DSL) is usually a concise, declarative language that strongly emphasizes a particular problem domain. DSL methods and implementations in general are widely prototyped and applied for creating elegant ways to express properties, relationships, and behavior of real-world models. This paper introduces DSL use for creating models and simulations within the Object Modeling System 3 (OMS3) modeling framework. In OMS3, various DSL concepts have been adopted to complement general-purpose modeling languages such as Java, FORTRAN, and C. Design patterns, such as the builder pattern, have been adopted through the DSL to support the setup of complex simulations for …

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Integration Of Bayesian Inference Techniques With Mathematical Modelling, George B. Arhonditsis Jul 2012

Integration Of Bayesian Inference Techniques With Mathematical Modelling, George B. Arhonditsis

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Skeptical views of the scientific value of modelling argue that there is no true model of an ecological system, but rather several adequate descriptions of different conceptual basis and structure. My study addresses this question using a complex ecosystem model, developed to guide the water quality criteria setting process in the Hamilton Harbour (Ontario, Canada), along with a simpler plankton model that considers the interplay among phosphate, detritus, and generic phytoplankton and zooplankton state variables. Predictions from the two models are combined using the respective standard error estimates as weights in a weighted model average. The two eutrophication models are …

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Ecosystem Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Framework, Romain Lardy, Raphaël Martin, Bruno Bachelet, David R. C. Hill, Gianni Bellocchi Jul 2012

Ecosystem Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Framework, Romain Lardy, Raphaël Martin, Bruno Bachelet, David R. C. Hill, Gianni Bellocchi

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Vulnerability is the degree to which human and environmental systems are likely to experience harm due to a perturbation or a stress. In the last years, it has become a central focus of the global change (including climate change). The climate change literature contains many explanations of vulnerability, stemming from the notion of sensitivity to more complex ideas, yet taking into account the exposure history of the system up to residual impacts of climate change after adaptation. This work addresses the issue of ecosystems vulnerability assessment by presenting a conceptual framework, as an attempt to generalize previous approaches. We present …

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A Variable-Structure Catchment Model As The Engine For A Water Quality Decision Support Tool Facilitating Scientific Debate And Collaboration., M. Bruen, E. Mockler Jul 2012

A Variable-Structure Catchment Model As The Engine For A Water Quality Decision Support Tool Facilitating Scientific Debate And Collaboration., M. Bruen, E. Mockler

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Distributed or semi-distributed models are usually cascades of lumped models, each with an identical structure. This, classical, approach has a number of drawbacks; (i) each lumped model must be sufficiently general and thus complex to cope with the range of hydrological situations possible and (ii) it precludes debate and discussion between scientists about the most appropriate model conceptualisation and in particular it precludes using different conceptualisations in different areas to adapt the model to different hydrologic regimes, perhaps even in the same catchment. Both of these lead to distributed models that are unnecessarily complex and over-parameterised with consequent implications for …

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Social-Ecological Modelling With Lara: A Psychologically Well-Founded Lightweight Agent Architecture, Ramón Briegel, Andreas Ernst, Sascha Holzhauer, Daniel Klemm, Friedrich Krebs, Aldo Martinez Pinanez Jul 2012

Social-Ecological Modelling With Lara: A Psychologically Well-Founded Lightweight Agent Architecture, Ramón Briegel, Andreas Ernst, Sascha Holzhauer, Daniel Klemm, Friedrich Krebs, Aldo Martinez Pinanez

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

For the purpose of policy simulation in coupled social-ecological systems (e.g. energy supply), a credible modelling of actors – especially citizens – and their decision processes is needed. This requires a framework capable of handling high numbers of heterogeneous agents (several hundreds of thousands). In our presentation we describe a framework called LARA (Lightweight Architecture for boundedly Rational Agents) which meets these requirements and fills the gap between frameworks without built-in psychological foundations and full-fledged cognitive architectures which are both not viable options in this context. LARA provides prefabricated components of an agent’s decision process like perception, memory, and different …

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Ilms – A Software Platform For Integrated Environmental Management, Sven Kralisch, Bettina Böhm, Christoph Böhm, Carsten Busch, Manfred Fink, Christian Fischer, Christian Schwartze, Peter Selsam, Franziska Zander, Wolfgang-Albert Flügel Jul 2012

Ilms – A Software Platform For Integrated Environmental Management, Sven Kralisch, Bettina Böhm, Christoph Böhm, Carsten Busch, Manfred Fink, Christian Fischer, Christian Schwartze, Peter Selsam, Franziska Zander, Wolfgang-Albert Flügel

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Integrated environmental system assessment and planning requires the application of different methods and software tools in a systematic and consistent workflow, often involving spatial data management, remote sensing and environmental modelling. Moreover, flexible and powerful interfaces are needed to allow for a seamless integration of these tools while avoiding file format and other transfer conflicts. This paper presents the Integrated Land Management System (ILMS) – a modular software platform that is addressing the demands of users involved in land and water resources management. By joining state-of-the-art methods and interfaces mainly based on open-source software modules it covers different aspects of …

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Use Of Integrated Models To Minimize The Impact Of Urban Wastewater Systems On A Mediterranean Stream, P. Prat, Corominas Ll, Lorenzo Benedetti, Joaquim Comas Jul 2012

Use Of Integrated Models To Minimize The Impact Of Urban Wastewater Systems On A Mediterranean Stream, P. Prat, Corominas Ll, Lorenzo Benedetti, Joaquim Comas

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In some regions, like in the Mediterranean area, streams are characterized by harsh hydrological fluctuations, with very low flow rates in summer and high in autumn. During low river flow conditions, wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) discharges contribute significantly to the total river flow and hence their impact is higher. The objective of this paper is to find solutions to confront this typical problematic situation by means of integrated modelling. The benefits of modelling the whole urban wastewater system (UWS) to evaluate multiple operational strategies are shown. The model includes two sewer systems, two WWTPs, a connection channel between the two …

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Designing A Measurement Network In A Meso-Scale Catchment To Provide Data For Modelling, Manfred Fink, Marcel Wetzel, Holm Kipka, Daniel Varga, Sven Kralisch, Wolfgang-Albert Flügel Jul 2012

Designing A Measurement Network In A Meso-Scale Catchment To Provide Data For Modelling, Manfred Fink, Marcel Wetzel, Holm Kipka, Daniel Varga, Sven Kralisch, Wolfgang-Albert Flügel

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

In many cases, water-quality models have a poor basis of calibration and validation due to inadequate or sparse input data. Water-quality monitoring is often limited to a few sites within the stream network where samples are collected and analyzed at some intermittent frequency (e. g. monthly). In particular, this limited temporal sample coverage causes problems in modelling water-quality variables such as phosphorous that are mainly transported during short-term events.In order to address this problem, a meso-scale catchment was equipped with a measurement network for obtaining spatially and temporally higher-resolution data of water quality, meteorological data, and soil moisture data. The …

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Image Assimilation And Motion Estimation Of Geophysical Fluids, Isabelle Herlin, Dominique Bereziat, Etienne Huot Jul 2012

Image Assimilation And Motion Estimation Of Geophysical Fluids, Isabelle Herlin, Dominique Bereziat, Etienne Huot

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Simulation models and image data are simultaneously available for numerousscientific domains, such as oceanography and meteorology. They are indeed two complementarydescriptions of the same complex system. Data Assimilation is a well-knownmathematical technique used, in environmental sciences, to improve forecasts obtainedfrom the simulation models, thanks to the observation data. One class of data assimilationalgorithms, named 4D-Var, globally adjusts the model output to the observations, thatare available over a period of time. The question of how to derive accurate characteristicfeatures from images, with an optimal use of the simulation model, is of major interestfor the image processing community. In this article, we …

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Application Of Support Vector Machines In Landslide Susceptibility Assessment For The Hoa Binh Province (Vietnam) With Kernel Functions Analysis, Dieu Tien Bui, Biswajeet Pradhan, Owe Lofman, Inge Revhaug, Oystein B. Dick Jul 2012

Application Of Support Vector Machines In Landslide Susceptibility Assessment For The Hoa Binh Province (Vietnam) With Kernel Functions Analysis, Dieu Tien Bui, Biswajeet Pradhan, Owe Lofman, Inge Revhaug, Oystein B. Dick

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The main objective of this study is to investigate the potential application of support vector machines (SVM) with kernel functions analysis for spatial prediction of landslides in the Hoa Binh province, Vietnam. A landslide inventory map that accounts for landslides that occurred during the last ten years was constructed using data from various sources. The landslide inventory was randomly divided into a training dataset 70% for building the models and the remaining 30% for the validation of the models. Ten landslide conditioning factors, such as slope angle, aspect, relief amplitude, lithology, soil type, landuse, distance to roads, distance to rivers, …

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Modelling Ecosystem Services Using Bayesian Belief Networks: Burggravenstroom Case Study, Dries Landuyt, Elina Bennetsen, Rob D. Hondt, Guy Engelen, Steven Broekx, Peter L. M. Goethals Jul 2012

Modelling Ecosystem Services Using Bayesian Belief Networks: Burggravenstroom Case Study, Dries Landuyt, Elina Bennetsen, Rob D. Hondt, Guy Engelen, Steven Broekx, Peter L. M. Goethals

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

While being studied by scientists for decades, the term ecosystem services was only recently introduced to the general public. This introduction intended broad-scale recognition of ecosystems and their value for human well-being. Both quantitative and qualitative research on ecosystem services became emerging topics in scientific research. Ecosystem service prediction models were developed varying from basic qualitative models to complex mechanistic models which enable quantification of ecosystem services. The introduction of Bayesian belief networks in ecosystem service modelling has led to an intermediate approach between both methods. Major advantages of this Bayesian network modelling approach are the model transparency which enables …

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Modelling Trade-Offs Between Ecosystem Services And Agricultural Production In Western Australia, Marit E. Kragt, Michael J. Robertson Jul 2012

Modelling Trade-Offs Between Ecosystem Services And Agricultural Production In Western Australia, Marit E. Kragt, Michael J. Robertson

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The concept of ecosystem services (ES) is widely used to highlight theinterdependencies between agricultural and environmental systems. Many ESprovide direct production benefits to agriculture-even those that are not directlyproducing agricultural commodities, such as pollination, water regulation, and soilretention. Farm management practices may produce ES or ‘disservices’, such asnutrient pollution or greenhouse gas emissions. Few studies have attempted toquantify the potential of agriculture to produce multiple ES, and to estimate thepossibilities for joint production of marketed and non-marketed ES. A quantificationof the trade-offs between ES provision and production of farm commodities canhelp to better target agricultural policies.We use a well-established biophysical …

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Simulating Crop Phenological Responses To Water Stress Using The Phenologymms Software Component, G. S. Mcmaster, James C. Ascough Ii, D. A. Edmunds, Olaf David Jul 2012

Simulating Crop Phenological Responses To Water Stress Using The Phenologymms Software Component, G. S. Mcmaster, James C. Ascough Ii, D. A. Edmunds, Olaf David

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Crop phenology is fundamental for understanding crop growth and development, and increasingly influences many agricultural management practices. Water deficits are one environmental factor that can influence crop phenology through shortening or lengthening the developmental phase, yet phenological responses to water deficits have rarely been quantified. This paper describes the development and statistical evaluation of the PhenologyMMS V1.2 software component for simulating the phenology of various crops at different levels of soil water content. The component is intended to be simple to use, requires minimal information for calibration, and can be easily incorporated into other crop simulation models. PhenologyMMS evaluation consisted …

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Modelling Nitrogen Transport And Turnover At The Hillslope Scale – A Process Oriented Approach, Philipp Kraft, Edwin Haas, Steffen Klatt, Ralf Kiese, Klaus Butterbach-Bahl, Hans Georg Frede, Lutz Breuer Jul 2012

Modelling Nitrogen Transport And Turnover At The Hillslope Scale – A Process Oriented Approach, Philipp Kraft, Edwin Haas, Steffen Klatt, Ralf Kiese, Klaus Butterbach-Bahl, Hans Georg Frede, Lutz Breuer

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Biogeochemical models used for simulating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and nutrient leaching are mainly designed for the plot scale. Lateral fluxes of nutrients such as nitrate, which may be important drivers for soil GHG emissions, are not or only scarcely considered and explored in such models. This is due to the complexity of microbiological, physico-chemical and plant processes which need to be investigated and simulated along one spatial dimension, a column. The introduction of a second (a hillslope) or third (entire landscapes) spatial dimension is likely to introduce additional complexity which can hardly be handled by most models. However, plot …

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Land Use Change And Suitability Assessment In The Upper Blue Nile Basin Under Water Resources And Socio-Economic Constraints: A Drive Towards A Decision Support System, Seleshi Yalew, E. Teferi, Ann Van Griensven, Stefan Uhlenbrook, Marloes Mul, Johannes Van Der Kwast, Pieter Van Der Zaag Jul 2012

Land Use Change And Suitability Assessment In The Upper Blue Nile Basin Under Water Resources And Socio-Economic Constraints: A Drive Towards A Decision Support System, Seleshi Yalew, E. Teferi, Ann Van Griensven, Stefan Uhlenbrook, Marloes Mul, Johannes Van Der Kwast, Pieter Van Der Zaag

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The Upper Blue Nile is home to a large human and livestock population that live in diverse biophysical and socio-economic environment. The basin is increasingly experiencing multi-dimensional pressures including population growth, climate change and variability, deforestation, land/soil degradation, as well as increasing upstream-downstream tension on water use rights. Understanding the dynamic interactions of land use and water resources in the basin comes at the forefront of any effort to improving the livelihood and sustainability in the basin. As part of a study to develop a decision support system for an integrated natural resources management for the Upper Blue Nile basin, …

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An Integrated Modeling And Data Management Strategy For Cellulosic Biomass Production Decisions, Joshua Koch, David Muth, Kenneth Mark Bryden Jul 2012

An Integrated Modeling And Data Management Strategy For Cellulosic Biomass Production Decisions, Joshua Koch, David Muth, Kenneth Mark Bryden

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Emerging cellulosic bioenergy markets can provide land managers with additional options for crop production decisions. For example, integrating dedicated bioenergy crops such as perennial grasses and short rotation woody species within the agricultural landscape can have positive impacts on several environmental processes including increased soil organic matter in degraded soils, reduced sediment and nutrient loading in watersheds, and lower green house gas fluxes. Implementing this type of diverse bioenergy production system to maximize the potential environmental benefits requires a detailed understanding of the many interwoven aspects of environmental landscapes. This paper presents a dynamic framework-based integrated modeling and data management …

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Developing A Conceptual Model For The Assessment Of Personal Exposure To Air Pollution, S. Steinle, S. Reis, C. E. Sabel Jul 2012

Developing A Conceptual Model For The Assessment Of Personal Exposure To Air Pollution, S. Steinle, S. Reis, C. E. Sabel

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Human exposure to environmental pathogens and specifically air pollutants is a highlytopical issue. Clean air to breathe is a basic requirement of life and the quality of air both outdoorsand indoors is a crucial determinant of health (WHO, 2010). Air is however affected by pollutants suchas Nitrogen Oxides (NOx), Particulate Matter (PM), ground level Ozone (O3) and Carbon Monoxide(CO) which can have adverse effects on public health.Air pollutants are ubiquitous and their concentrations are typically subject to a high spatial andtemporal variability. For risk and impact assessments and for the design of effective air pollutioncontrol policies as well as public …

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Dynamic Modelling Of Silvopastoral Landscape Structure: Scenarios For Future Climate And Land Use, François Gillet, Alexander Peringer Jul 2012

Dynamic Modelling Of Silvopastoral Landscape Structure: Scenarios For Future Climate And Land Use, François Gillet, Alexander Peringer

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Pasture-woodland landscapes result from a long history ofsilvopastoralism in mountain regions and provide valuable ecosystem services.They include a mosaic of grasslands, forests and wood-pastures, which is theheritage of a multipurpose management in the variable socio-economic andbiophysical context of the last millennium. In the perspective of ongoing climateand land-use changes, it is crucial to assess the resilience and the adaptivecapacity of such socio-ecological systems at different spatial and temporal scales.For this purpose, we developed a hierarchical, process-based, dynamic model,WoodPaM, and we simulated six scenarios of climate change and management ina real landscape of the Swiss Jura Mountains. Realistic climatic scenarios for …

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Integrated Ecological Modelling For Decision Support In The Integrated Urban Water System Modelling Of The Drava River (Varazdin, Croatia), Javier E. Holguin, Gert Everaert, Lorenzo Benedetti, Youri Amerlinck, Peter L. M. Goethals Jul 2012

Integrated Ecological Modelling For Decision Support In The Integrated Urban Water System Modelling Of The Drava River (Varazdin, Croatia), Javier E. Holguin, Gert Everaert, Lorenzo Benedetti, Youri Amerlinck, Peter L. M. Goethals

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

Legal physical-chemical emission limits are traditionally used forassessing the effectiveness of urban sanitation infrastructure. However, thereceiving water’s ecological aspects are disregarded with this conventionalapproach. European legislation (i.e. Water Framework Directive-WFD) now has anintegrated approach of river management, which considers the concept ofecological status. Furthermore, the WFD urges the adoption of a combined analysisof emission limits values and physical-chemical and ecological aspects of thereceiving waters and encourage the availability and use of decision support tools forwater management such as simulation models. Croatia has signed agreements tojoin the European Union (EU) and thus taken up the obligation to coordinate itslegislation with EU …

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A Decision Methodology For Large Scale Systems: The Case Of The Air Quality Planning, C. Carnevale, G. Finzi, E. Pisoni, M. Volta Jul 2012

A Decision Methodology For Large Scale Systems: The Case Of The Air Quality Planning, C. Carnevale, G. Finzi, E. Pisoni, M. Volta

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The paper describes a multi-objective optimization approach to define efficientair quality control policies at regional scale. Air Quality and Cost of policy implementationare the two ingredients considered in the methodology. Both seasonal (for ozone) andyearly (for PM10) models are applied to simulate the Air Quality Index, based on ArtificialNeural Networks. Results are shown at first in terms of Air Quality models performances,and then in terms of optimal policies suggestions, over a Northern Italy domain.

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Comparison Of The Chernobyl And Fukushima Nuclear Power Plants Accidents And Their Consequences, Elena Savelyeva, Sergey Panchenko Jul 2012

Comparison Of The Chernobyl And Fukushima Nuclear Power Plants Accidents And Their Consequences, Elena Savelyeva, Sergey Panchenko

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

This work compares the radioactive consequences due to the Chernobyl and Fukushima NPP accidents. Due to non-homogeneous features of the fallouts of radioactive isotopes in the both cases the comparison of radioactive contamination density was compared for similar administrative units – in Russia (Bryansk region, Novozibkov subregion) and in Japan (Fukushima prefecture, Namie municipality). We also estimated and compared both external and internal radiation doses for population during the acute accidental period – the first year. This work also considers the long-term dynamics of exposure doses in Russia which illustrate the Russian experience on countermeasures to protect the population.

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Probabilistic Risk Assessment And Decision Support Tools For The Evaluation Of Oil Transport In The Gulf Of Finland, North-Eastern Baltic Sea, Annukka Lehikoinen, Emilia Luoma, Maria Hänninen, Jenni Storgård, Sakari Kuikka Jul 2012

Probabilistic Risk Assessment And Decision Support Tools For The Evaluation Of Oil Transport In The Gulf Of Finland, North-Eastern Baltic Sea, Annukka Lehikoinen, Emilia Luoma, Maria Hänninen, Jenni Storgård, Sakari Kuikka

International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software

The maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland (GoF), North-eastern BalticSea, is predicted to rapidly grow in the near future, which increases theenvironmental risks through both direct environmental effects and by increasing therisk of severe oil accident. A multidisciplinary group of researchers has developeda prototype of risk assessment and decision support model, applying BayesianNetworks (BNs), for the evaluation of environmental risks arising from the oiltransport. It consists of sub-models on tanker collisions, causation probability(human factor), the resulting leak size, and the efficacy of open sea oil recovery.This meta-model is based on three alternative growth scenarios concerning themaritime traffic of the …

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