Quantifying Gcm Simulation Uncertainty And Incorporating Into Water Resources Assessment,
2014
City University of New York (CUNY)
Quantifying Gcm Simulation Uncertainty And Incorporating Into Water Resources Assessment, Fitsum Markos Woldemeskel, Ashish Sharma, Bellie Sivakumar, Rajeshwar Mehrotra
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
Rainfall and temperature, simulated using Global Climate Models (GCMs), serve as key inputs for hydrological models in studying catchment responses to climate scenarios. GCM simulations of rainfall and temperature, however, are uncertain due to model structure, scenarios and initial conditions, which results in biased outcomes if used for hydrological models without due consideration of the uncertainties. In this study, we develop a novel uncertainty metric, square root error variance (SREV), to quantify uncertainties involved in GCM rainfall and temperature simulations as well as illustrate its application for water resources assessment. The uncertainty metric involves converting multiple GCM simulations into their …
Applicability Of A Flood Forecasting Method Utilizing Global Satellite Information To An Insufficiently-Gauged River Basin: A Case Of A River Basin In The Philippines,
2014
City University of New York (CUNY)
Applicability Of A Flood Forecasting Method Utilizing Global Satellite Information To An Insufficiently-Gauged River Basin: A Case Of A River Basin In The Philippines, Mamoru Miyamoto, Makoto Ono, Toshio Okazumi, Seishi Nabesaka, Yoichi Iwami
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
Currently, basin-wide flood monitoring and warning systems are being implemented sequentially in river basins of the Philippines, which suffer from severe floods. The Cagayan River basin is among them draining the area of 27,280km2, where five rainfall and water level gauges are installed for the purpose of flood monitoring and warning. Despite the installed monitoring system, an operational flood forecasting model based on physical processes has not been performed for this basin. IFAS, a distributed hydrological model developed by ICHARM, was applied to the Cagayan River basin as a flood forecasting model. One of its notable functions is the capability …
Analysis On Runoff Characteristics Of Decentralized Rainwater Management System Using Xp-Swmm Simulation,
2014
City University of New York (CUNY)
Analysis On Runoff Characteristics Of Decentralized Rainwater Management System Using Xp-Swmm Simulation, Yun Jung Kim, Dong Geun Kwak, Won Tae Kim, Hai Uk Nam, Jeong Joo Kim, Hee Chul Yoon, Hyun Bae Kim, Ho Sun Lee
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
In recent years, impervious areas are increasing in residential zone as well as unsettled area with rapid urbanization and land use. Consequently, this phenomenon influences weak urban environmental compositions about climate change including urban flooding accidents. Therefore, a new paradigm on rainwater management is needed for sound and sustainable restoration of hydrological circulation. Recently, a novel rainwater management system has been developed and recommended for irrigation and flood control in Korea. Especially, P city is now planning a new rainwater management system adopting LID (Low Impact Development) techniques on a small scale development area. In this study, XP-SWMM was used …
Moving Horizon Estimation To Assimilate Snow And Soil Moisture Data Into The Hbv Hydrological Model,
2014
City University of New York (CUNY)
Moving Horizon Estimation To Assimilate Snow And Soil Moisture Data Into The Hbv Hydrological Model, Rodolfo Alvarado Montero, Dirk Schwanenberg, Peter Krahe, Aynur Şensoy
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
We present a variational data assimilation approach based on a Moving Horizon Estimation (MHE) applied to the HBV hydrological model. This framework enables the modification of the model inputs precipitation and temperature as well as the model states soil moisture, upper zone storage and lower zone storage. It considers data products for snow cover, snow water equivalent and soil moisture and observed streamflow. The performance of the framework is evaluated for three test sites: i) the data–dense catchment of the upper Main River (2419 km2), Germany, for which the HBV model already produces excellent results, ii) a comparable upstream catchment …
Short-Term Reservoir Optimization By Stochastic Optimization To Mitigate Downstream Flood Risks,
2014
City University of New York (CUNY)
Short-Term Reservoir Optimization By Stochastic Optimization To Mitigate Downstream Flood Risks, Dirk Schwanenberg, Fernando Mainardo Fan, Steffi Naumann, Julio Kuwajima, Rodolfo Alvarado Montero, Alberto Assis Dos Reis
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
An important objective of the operation of multi-purpose reservoirs is the mitigation of flood risks in downstream river reaches. Under the assumptions of reservoirs with finite storage volumes, a key factor for its effective use during flood events is the proper timing of detention measures under consideration of forecast uncertainty. Operational flow forecasting systems support this task by providing deterministic or probabilistic inflow forecasts and decision support components to assess optimum release strategies. We focus on the decision support component and propose a deterministic optimization and its extension to an adaptive multi-stage stochastic optimization. These techniques are used to compute …
Short-Term Management Of Hydropower: Definition, Assessment And Disposal Of Operational Flexibility,
2014
City University of New York (CUNY)
Short-Term Management Of Hydropower: Definition, Assessment And Disposal Of Operational Flexibility, Divas Karimanzira, Dirk Schwanenberg, Chris Allen
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
Modern hydroelectric power systems are largely characterized by variability and uncertainty in water resource obligations. The growing number of operational obligations for flood control, navigation, environmental obligations and ancillary services (including load balancing requirements for renewable resources) further the need to quantify sources uncertainty. The variations caused by these - factors require the hydropower system to have enough up and downward flexibility for control technologies such as dynamic optimal control load-following, unit commitment, automatic generation, to be effective. Therefore, it is increasingly important to adopting operational flexibility to better manage uncertainty and balancing reserves. The objective of this paper is …
Impact Of El Niño Southern Oscillation On Monsoon Rainfall In Bhima Basin, Central India,
2014
City University of New York (CUNY)
Impact Of El Niño Southern Oscillation On Monsoon Rainfall In Bhima Basin, Central India, Dhyan Singh Arya, Mohamed Gareeballa Abdall, Asmita Ramkrishna Murumkar
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
The analysis of the effects of ENSO phenomenon on monsoon rainfall of the Bhima River basin located in Central India was investigated using 10x10 degree gridded monsoon rainfall during 1951-2003 and data of four ENSO indices (SOI, MEI, Niño 3.4 and DMI). Data of ENSO indices were divided into three seasons and only statistically significantly correlation was found between monsoon rainfall and monsoon season ENSO indices. Analysis also shows that the monsoon rainfall is positively correlated with SOI index whereas negatively correlated with all other indices. A significant change in the regional climate after 1976 has been reported in many …
Integration Of Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm And Support Vector Machine For Hourly Typhoon Rainfall Forecasting,
2014
City University of New York (CUNY)
Integration Of Multi-Objective Genetic Algorithm And Support Vector Machine For Hourly Typhoon Rainfall Forecasting, Bing-Chen Jhong, Gwo-Fong Lin
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
During typhoon periods, accurate hourly rainfall forecasts are extremely important. A new typhoon rainfall forecasting model that integrates multi-objective genetic algorithm (MOGA) with support vector machines (SVM) is presented in this paper. Apart from the rainfall data, the meteorological variables are also considered. An application to high- and low-altitude meteorological stations has shown that the proposed model yields the best performance as compared to other models. Results indicate that meteorological variables are helpful. The proposed model significantly improves hourly typhoon rainfall forecasting, especially for the long lead time forecasting. Moreover, the optimal combination of inputs is determined by the proposed …
A Weather Monitoring System For The Study Of Precipitation Fields, Weather, And Climate In An Urban Area,
2014
City University of New York (CUNY)
A Weather Monitoring System For The Study Of Precipitation Fields, Weather, And Climate In An Urban Area, Francesco Lo Conti, Dario Pumo, Antonia Incontrera, Antonio Francipane, Leonardo Valerio Noto, Goffredo La Loggia
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
The possibility to study the precipitation dynamics with advanced and specific tools is an important task of the research activity addressing the understanding, the modeling, and the managing of rainfall events. Over the last years, the hydrology laboratory of the Department of Civil, Environmental, Aerospace Engineering, and Materials (DICAM) at the University of Palermo, has installed several instruments for the monitoring and the study of precipitation within the urban area of Palermo (Italy). The main instrument of this system is the X-band weather radar, which allows monitoring the precipitation fields with high resolution in space and time. This instrument is …
Automatic Frequency-Based Flood Forecast From Numerical Weather Prediction Using A Service-Oriented Architecture,
2014
City University of New York (CUNY)
Automatic Frequency-Based Flood Forecast From Numerical Weather Prediction Using A Service-Oriented Architecture, Ang Zhang, Tiejian Li, Haiyun Shi, Wang Fu, Jiaye Li
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
Destructive floods occurred more frequently in mountainous regions in China in recent years. However, the meteorological and hydrological station network in such regions is usually poor, and no long-series observations are available. Therefore, it is difficult to determine the hydrological parameters for flood discharge and stage forecast. This paper aims to propose an automatic frequency-based flood forecast framework from numerical weather prediction (NWP) using a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA). The proposed framework has 4 main steps. First, historical flood discharge is simulated by using a distributed hydrological model and satellite-derived rainfall dataset (e.g., the CMORPH and the TRMM), and the …
Short-Term Optimization Of A Canal Network For Navigation And Water Management,
2014
City University of New York (CUNY)
Short-Term Optimization Of A Canal Network For Navigation And Water Management, Arnejan Van Loenen, Min Xu, Robin Engel
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
We present the design, implementation and operational use of a short-term optimization approach for the operational water management of the Twentekanalen canal system for navigation and water resources management. The system was originally designed for navigation and its construction had been completed in 1938. In the past decades, it also became increasingly important for the regional water management. In summer periods, the system provides the region with fresh water and helps to drain the area otherwise. The short-term optimization is implemented in the Operational Monitoring System for the National Regulated Water Systems for advising the operating staff on the operation …
Hpc For Drm - Operational Flood Management In Urban Environment,
2014
City University of New York (CUNY)
Hpc For Drm - Operational Flood Management In Urban Environment, Evžen Zeman, Pavel Tachecí, Johan Nicolai Hartnack, Vít Vondrák, Jan Martinovič
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
A regional flood warning system based on a combination of data processing, modelling and communication tools is proposed. The system is founded on a common framework MIKE CUSTOMISED, giving great flexibility in tailoring solutions as needed. Where more conventional flood warning systems focus mainly on discharge predictions in the main rivers the proposed system considers the whole catchment area – flood plain, as well as tributaries. Local floods on smaller streams and tributaries may cause high damages, particular in urban areas. Such cases require timely reasonably accurate forecasts for proper decision making. The MIKE SHE modelling system is used to …
Prediction Of Hydrological Models’ Uncertainty By A Committee Of Machine Learning-Models,
2014
City University of New York (CUNY)
Prediction Of Hydrological Models’ Uncertainty By A Committee Of Machine Learning-Models, Nagendra Kayastha, Dimitri P. Solomatine, Durga Lal Shrestha
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
This study presents an approach to combine uncertainties of the hydrological model outputs predicted from a number of machine learning models. The machine learning based uncertainty prediction approach is very useful for estimation of hydrological models' uncertainty in particular hydro-metrological situation in real-time application [1]. In this approach the hydrological model realizations from Monte Carlo simulations are used to build different machine learning uncertainty models to predict uncertainty (quantiles of pdf) of the a deterministic output from hydrological model . Uncertainty models are trained using antecedent precipitation and streamflows as inputs. The trained models are then employed to predict the …
Simulation Of Shoreline Changes Along Muthalapozhy Harbour, India,
2014
City University of New York (CUNY)
Simulation Of Shoreline Changes Along Muthalapozhy Harbour, India, Dhyan Singh Arya, Santosh Kori, A M. Vaidya
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
A study of Muthalapozhy fishing harbour, located in south India, was conducted for simulating shoreline changes using LITPACK modelling tool. The analysis shows that the estimated advancement in shoreline is of the order of 45 m/year initially, which gradually reduces to 25 m/year. It was also found that the coastline advances more during the south-west monsoon (i.e. June to September) season. Simulation of breakwaters shows that the length of the breakwater should be increased by 200 m for south breakwater and 70 m for north breakwater to keep the channel operational without dredging till 2016. The results of the simulated …
Snowmelt Modelling Of Dhauliganga River Using Snowmelt Runoff Model,
2014
City University of New York (CUNY)
Snowmelt Modelling Of Dhauliganga River Using Snowmelt Runoff Model, Dhyan Singh Arya, Amar Kant Gautam, Asmita Ramkrishna Murumkar
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
Snowmelt modeling was attempted in this study using Snowmelt Runoff Model to simulate streamflow in Tamak Lata Catchment located in the Indian Himalayas. The daily snow cover data was generated using the depletion curves prepared using snow cover information obtained from MODIS remote sensing images during May 2009 to August 2012. Discharge, temperature and rainfall data observed at Tamak Lata during May 2009 to August 2012 were used for calibration and validation of the model. The characteristics of snow cover in the basin shows that the accumulation of snow at higher altitude starts from the second week of October and …
Examining Flow Paths In Bunter Sediments In Thuringian Basin,
2014
City University of New York (CUNY)
Examining Flow Paths In Bunter Sediments In Thuringian Basin, Thomas Fischer, Cindy Kunkel, Dmitri Naumov, Reinhard Gaupp, Olaf Kolditz
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
We would like to present a study on the Thuringian Basin, a large area in central Germany. Within this basin exist areas with very different interesting geo- and hydrological properties. We set up models and simulations for four subdomains within the basin, which describe different depositional environments - Eolian, Fluvial, Sandflat and Lacustrine. Researchers would like to investigate which paths is the water taking in the subsurface and how fast it is moving. The aim of this study is to gain knowledge about flow paths within these four model areas with regard to their architectural design. First simulation results suggest …
The Contribution Of Fine Scale Atmospheric Numerical Models In Improving The Quality Of Hydraulic Modelling Outputs,
2014
City University of New York (CUNY)
The Contribution Of Fine Scale Atmospheric Numerical Models In Improving The Quality Of Hydraulic Modelling Outputs, Rabia Merrouchi, Dalila Loudyi, Mohamed Chagdali
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
The atmospheric numerical models have known great advances with the ongoing development of numerical weather prediction and computing resources. The spatial and temporal resolution of the global atmospheric models has improved and therefore, the accuracy and reliability of their results have substantially increased. Emphasis was made on the improvement of models dynamics and physical aspects, but also on data assimilation and input data diversification using new numerical schemes and new physical parameterizations that better assess the small-scale weather phenomena. However, these models were not able to overcome their physical limitations and therefore, some small-scale processes are far from being thoroughly …
Application Of Numerical Modelling For Conceptualizing Abstraction Rate Control In A Well Field Under Complex Boundary Conditions,
2014
City University of New York (CUNY)
Application Of Numerical Modelling For Conceptualizing Abstraction Rate Control In A Well Field Under Complex Boundary Conditions, Sebastian Handl, Ernest Mayr, Tobias Gauster, Reinhard Perfler
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
This paper aims at presenting a concept for regulating water abstraction from a well field which ensures an efficient exploration of river filtrate while complying with defined minimum residence time of inflowing water. Being located on an island between a river and an attendant channel, the investigated well field consists of eight radial collector wells aligned parallel to the river flow direction. The water-level in the river is kept comparatively constant due to a downstream hydropower plant. In the channel, the water level is controlled by two weirs. Following a defined hydrograph with an amplitude of about one meter, the …
Numerical Study To Enhance Stability Condition Within The River Mouth; Case Study: Rosetta Promontory, Egypt,
2014
City University of New York (CUNY)
Numerical Study To Enhance Stability Condition Within The River Mouth; Case Study: Rosetta Promontory, Egypt, Ali Masria, Abdelazim Negm, Moheb Iskander, Oliver Saavedra
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
Estuaries play an important role in exchanging water and providing a navigational pathway for ships. These zones are very sensitive and vulnerable to any interventions in coastal dynamics. Almost major of these inlets experience coastal problems such as severe erosion, and accretion. Rosetta promontory is an example of this environment. It suffers from many coastal problems as erosion problem along the coastline and siltation problem inside the inlet. It is due to lack of water and sediment resources as a side effect of constructing the Aswan High dam. The shoaling of the inlet leads to hindering the navigation process of …
An Ensemble Approach For Typhoon Runoff Simulation With Perturbed Rainfall Forecasts In Taiwan,
2014
City University of New York (CUNY)
An Ensemble Approach For Typhoon Runoff Simulation With Perturbed Rainfall Forecasts In Taiwan, Lan Yu, Lloyd Hock Chye Chua, Dong-Sin Shih
International Conference on Hydroinformatics
Under the background of demand for accurate and reliable flood forecasting, various methodologies are used to model floods. However, not all the phases of the hydrograph can be predicted by any models, even though the global optimum may be reached. In order to exploit the distinct information provided by different models, an ensemble approach is proposed to improve the forecasting accuracy and reliability. The ensemble precipitation estimates from a Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model were used to as inputs to model the rainfall-runoff process in Taiwan. A Dynamic Evolving Neural-Fuzzy Inference System was applied to combining the predictions of the …
