Economic Policy Commons^™

Flex, Pivot, Sustain: Adaptive Design Of Promise Programs, Michelle Miller-Adams, Jennifer Iriti

Reports

The design of a Promise program or place-based college scholarship requires community partners to make three key decisions: 1) Which students are eligible, 2) Where can students use the scholarship?, and 3) How should the scholarship be structured? Changes in available funding may affect all three decisions. This practice brief, developed in conjunction with the Kresge Foundation, lays out key principles for redesigning Promise programs when available funding changes, providing three case study examples to illustrate how program officials navigated redesign choices.

Immigration Enforcement And Origin Country Labor Markets, Thomas Pearson

Center for Policy Research

This paper studies how increased immigration enforcement in the destination country impacts labor markets in the origin country. Using variation in Mexican migrant networks and Secure Communities (SC), a policy which expanded local immigration enforcement, I show that the deportation of Mexican migrants from the U.S. increases return migration to Mexico and decreases monthly earnings for workers in Mexico. The negative earnings effects are largest for workers most similar to return migrants in terms of their demographics, occupations, and employment types, and are consistent with increased labor market competition.

The Price Of Democracy: The Revolutionary Power Of Taxation In American History, Vanessa Williamson

Brookings Scholar Lecture Series

As part of the Brookings Scholar Lecture Series, Brookings Mountain West presented a lecture titled, "The Price of Democracy: The Revolutionary Power of Taxation in American History" by Brookings senior fellow in governance studies, Vanessa Williamson.

From tariffs to “no tax on tips”, taxation has often been a hot topic in American elections. What is not commonly recognized, however, is that—from the framing of the Constitution to the decades-long backlash to the civil rights movement—taxes have been at the heart of battles over the breadth of our democracy. Brookings senior fellow Vanessa Williamson discusses her new book, The Price of …

How To Design A State Child And Dependent Care Tax Credit That Works, Gabrielle Pepin

Reports

High care costs for children and older adults put an increasing strain on American families, often pushing caregivers out of the workforce. While investments in affordable care deliver lasting benefits for families, employers, and the economy, the federal Child and Dependent Care Tax Credit (CDCTC) falls short—leaving states well positioned to make a difference. This Policy Blueprint highlights three ways the CDCTC fails families, and three solutions for designing a state tax credit that can help.

Evolving U.S. And Chinese International Development Policy: Institutions, Strategies, And Global Impact, Julian Kai Lehto

Social Sciences

This paper is inspired by, and meant to understand, recent changes in global policy towards foreign aid and international development. 2025 saw one of the biggest changes to international development in decades, when President Donald Trump’s new administration made the decision to effectively shut down the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). At the same time, China has been taking on a growing role in foreign aid and development over the last decade. Chinese projects like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) have become globally significant. This paper will explore the changing impacts and influence of both the U.S. …

More Hours, More Work: Head Start Expansions Boost Maternal Employment, Chloe R. Gibbs, Esra Kose, Maria Rosales Rueda

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

Women’s employment remains highly sensitive to childcare constraints, making childcare availability a critical lever for supporting mothers’ labor force attachment. We study the effects of expanded full-day programming in Head Start, using the 2016 federal funding initiative that targeted grantees with low full-day enrollment. Linking administrative program data, geo-coded center locations, and household data on employment, we estimate a difference-in-differences design by comparing mothers of young children in treated and untreated areas. The policy increased full-day enrollment by 19 percent and raised single mothers’ employment (1.9%), hours (2.5%), and earnings (6.5%). Results show that extending program duration meaningfully improves maternal …

Digital Public Service Delivery As An Institutional Outcome: Data Governance And Interoperability In The Egyptian Public Sector, Waad Hegazy

Theses and Dissertations

Moving beyond technology-centered theories of digital transformation, this thesis examines the institutional and governance factors shaping digital public service delivery in Egypt. It analyzes how governance structures, data governance arrangements, and interoperability frameworks influence the extent to which digital transformation initiatives result in integrated, scalable, and citizen-facing public services. Using a qualitative research design, the study draws on an analysis of relevant policy and program documents and semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders involved in digital transformation initiatives in Egypt. The findings indicate that persistent challenges in digital public service delivery are driven less by technological constraints than by fragmented governance …

Encouraging Naturalization: The Broader Effects Of Daca On U.S. Immigration, Emily Battaglia, Thomas Pearson

Center for Policy Research

This paper examines how protection from deportation and work authorization affect immigration outcomes, focusing on Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA). Using a difference-in-differences design exploiting geographic variation in exposure to DACA-eligible immigrants, we find that DACA significantly increased the number of naturalized citizens without increasing the number of noncitizens. This increase is driven by higher naturalization among prior noncitizens, most of whom are likely not DACA beneficiaries. We provide evidence consistent with DACA increasing incentives for, and reducing barriers to, naturalization by protecting undocumented DACA-eligible contacts, suggesting temporary protections can encourage longer-term commitments and permanent residence among existing immigrants.

Human Capital And Labor Market Effects Of Elite Schooling In England, Scotland, And Wales: New Causal Evidence From Nonparametric Bounds, Zhanhan Yu, Vikesh Amin, Carlos A. Flores, Alfonso Flores-Lagunes, Giuseppe Germinario

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

We estimate the causal effect of attending elite schools in England, Scotland, and Wales on human capital and labor market outcomes for cohorts of children from the 1958 National Child Development Study and the 1970 British Cohort Study. For identification, we employ a nonparametric partial-identification approach that provides bounds on the causal effect by assuming that, on average, there is positive selection into elite school attendance, and that attending an elite school does not worsen average potential human capital or labor market outcomes. The bounds indicate that there could possibly be large education and labor market returns from attending an …

Child Care Costs In The Mountain West, 2025, Cason Noll, Isabelle G. Graham, Mohit Pande, Olivia K. Cheche, Caitlin J. Saladino, William E. Brown Jr.

Economic Development & Workforce

This fact sheet reports child care affordability and cost data for the five Mountain West states of Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. The Economic Policy Institute (EPI) report, “Child care costs in the United States,” highlights data on the differences in child care affordability across the United States. This fact sheet presents data on the percentage of annual income required to afford infant care for a minimum-wage worker, a typical child care worker, and a median family with children based on state-level income data for each Mountain West state. This fact sheet also reports annual costs, including college, …

Toward Transformative Social Protection: Integrating Economic Empowerment And Addressing Graduation Challenges In Egypt’S Takaful And Karama Program, Mennatalla Ahmed Zayed

Theses and Dissertations

This study investigates how Egypt's Takaful and Karama Program (TKP) can enhance long-term poverty reduction and program sustainability through the inclusion of economicempowerment interventions. Based on the frameworks of Social Risk Management 2.0 and Transformative Social Protection, the study places Egypt's experience in the context of international discussions about conditional cash transfers, multidimensional poverty, and graduation models. The study uses a qualitative methodology, conducting semi-structured interviews with academics, civil society experts, and policymakers. The interviews' findings are supported by content analysis of policy documents and impact evaluations on TKP and Forsa. According to the research analysis, cash transfers help alleviate …

The Rise Of The Global Middle Class, Homi Kharas

Brookings Scholar Lecture Series

As part of the Brookings Scholar Lecture Series, Brookings Mountain West presented a lecture titled, "The Rise of the Global Middle Class" by Brookings senior fellow in global economy and development, Homi Kharas.

For the last two hundred years, ever since the start of the Industrial Revolution, the most successful economies in the world have developed large, stable middle classes. With globalization, the expansion of the middle class has accelerated to a historically unprecedented speed. But global consumerism is scaling faster than the adaptation of institutions, ecosystems, and social norms. Brookings senior fellow Homi Kharas discusses his most recent book, …

Early Learning Across Decades: Advances In Measuring Head Start Effectiveness, Chloe R. Gibbs

Upjohn Institute Working Papers

The Head Start program, launched in 1965 and targeted to children from disadvantaged backgrounds, remains the largest early childhood care and education (ECE) program in the United States and the only one deployed at the federal level. As such, the Head Start literature spans several decades and now allows for synthesis of findings from different contexts, time periods, and research designs. This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the rigorous evidence measuring Head Start’s effects on children, their families, and society. The focus is on how (1) the contrast between program and counterfactual conditions, (2) takeup of the program among …

Advancing Climate Transition Through Fiscal Tools: The Role Of Carbon Taxation And Fuel Subsidy Reform, Farah Amgad Zayed

Theses and Dissertations

This study highlights how fiscal policy tools can accelerate Egypt's climate transition, with emphasis on carbon taxes and fossil fuel subsidies reforms. It investigates how fiscal tools can reduce carbon emissions and promote economic development by primarily relying on qualitative interviews with policymakers, consultants, representatives of the private sector, and civil society actors, paralleled with some descriptive and comparative analysis. The results show that even though Egypt has made significant strides in advancing green transition, including updating the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), introducing the first African Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM), as well as phasing out fossil fuel subsidies gradually, institutional …

Economic Outlook Of Battle Creek: Challenges And Opportunities, Iryna V. Lendel, Chloe Wieber, Sevrin Williams, Gerrit Anderson

Upjohn Institute Technical Reports

This report by the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research examines labor market dynamics in Battle Creek, finding that roughly 75 percent of jobs in the city are held by workers who live outside the city limits, with significant skill mismatches between city residents and local employer needs. This mismatch helps explain persistently low wages, elevated poverty rates, and high reliance on public assistance among city residents despite a strong manufacturing base and growing logistics, food processing, and machining sectors. Limited housing supply, inadequate public transportation, and childcare shortages further restrict residents’ access to employment. The report underscores the urgency …

Forecast Of China’S Economic Growth Rate In 2026 And Policy Suggestions, Xikang Chen, Cuihong Yang, Kunfu Zhu, Huijuan Wang, Xinru Li, Yu Zhao

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

In 2025, China’s economy has shown a steady progress while maintaining stability. The industrial structure continues to be optimized, the new-quality productive forces enjoyed thriving development, people’s wellbeing was effectively ensured. China’s GDP growth rate ranks among the first tier of the world’s major economies. This study reviews the economic performance of China in 2025 and analyzes the domestic and international conditions for the next period. Using a system-based comprehensive factor prediction method, the study forecasts the economic growth rate for 2026, indicating that China’s economy is expected to maintain stable operation, with a growth rate of around 5.0%. This …

Level Measurement, Problem Analysis, And Countermeasures Of “Four Chains” Integration Development In China, Changhong Nie, Yuxuan He, Chuan Li

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

romoting the deep integration of innovation chain, industrial chain, funding chain, and talent chain (Four Chains) is an important path to accelerate the formation of new quality productive forces. The evaluation of the integrated development of the “Four Chains” is helpful to comprehensively and objectively reveal the development status, providing decision-making reference for the strategic deployment of scientific and technological innovation and its supporting policies. Based on the meaning and function of “Four Chains”, this study constructs an evaluation indicator system. The study also reveals the development level, regional differences, and dynamic evolution rule of “Four Chains” integration in China. …

Research On China’S Economic Pulse Based On Etc Big Data: Operational Characteristics, Structural Challenges, And Paths To High-Quality Development, Junjie Hong, Geng Li, Jian Guo, Zhengjie Tian, Libin Hu

Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Chinese Version)

Big data from highway ETC systems, characterized by full-domain coverage, high-frequency real-time updates, and precise granularity, provides a unique micro-observational window for perceiving the pulse of China’s economic operation. Based on the daily traffic data of national ETC users from Shandong Hi-Speed Xilian Science and Technology Co., Ltd. spanning the period 2023–2025, this study constructs a “China Economic Pulse Index” encompassing five core indicators: daily traffic volume, truck traffic volume, average truck load, inter-regional flow ratio, and travel efficiency. It systematically analyzes the economic operation logic reflected behind ETC big data. Research findings indicate that ETC data clearly reveals China’s …

Urban Sprawl And Residential Carbon Emissions: Evidence From Indonesia And The Philippines, Yi Jiang, Taylor Lathrop, Alexander D. Rothenberg, Yao Wang

Center for Policy Research

This paper studies how neighborhood density affects residential carbon emissions, using detailed data from Indonesia and the Philippines. To address simultaneity, we instrument density with soil characteristics, and to address sorting, we control for community averages of observed characteristics. Unlike cities in developed countries, we find that density is positively correlated with residential energy use. After controlling for sorting, we find a precise null relationship between density and residential carbon emissions. Our results suggest that policies to control urban sprawl may not be successful in reducing residential carbon emissions in developing country cities.

Airbnb And The End Of The Local, Nadia Beyersdorf

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis examines how second-home ownership and self-catered tourism reshape community life in Tenby, Wales. While gentrification research often focuses on permanent displacement, less attention has been given to the movement of temporary residents that erodes local culture, social ties, and transforms everyday relationships in coastal towns.