Defense and Security Studies Commons^™

The Effect Of Incompatibility Types On The Escalation Of Global Armed Conflicts, Michael Haratua Rajagukguk, Ruben Cornelius Siagian Rcs

Journal of Terrorism Studies

Global armed conflicts show variations in intensity influenced by the type of issue incompatibility. This study aims to analyze the influence of territorial, ideological, and combined incompatibilities on the probability of high-intensity conflict escalation, as well as its implications for conflict mitigation strategies. Global conflict dyadic data were analyzed using a multilevel logistic regression model with controls for time, region, and conflict type. The results show that ideology-based conflicts have a lower probability of reaching high intensity than territorial conflicts (OR ≈ 0.51, p < 0.05), while conflicts with a combination of ideology and territory tend to be at greater risk of high escalation (AM effect ≈ +26.6 points), although the effect is not yet statistically significant. Temporal analysis shows a downward trend in conflict intensity over time, especially in the post-Cold War period, while regional effects and conflict types show significant variation. These findings fill a gap in the literature on the dual interaction of ideological and territorial claims, showing that the highest escalation of violence occurs when symbolic and material dimensions are intertwined. In conclusion, conflict escalation is more influenced by a combination of issues and structural characteristics of conflict than by ideology alone. The novelty of this research lies in the identification of the strengthening effect of dual incompatibility and the downward trend in conflict intensity after the Cold War, which emphasizes the importance of a relational and temporal context-based mitigation approach in global conflict management.

Hybrid Threats In The Lake Chad Basin: The Nexus Between Terrorism, Illicit Wealth, And Transborder Crime, Cletus C. N. Nwadiogbu

Journal of Terrorism Studies

Threats to security in the Lake Chad Basin have changed over the years and hybrid elements have become interweaved. Sustained Boko Haram and ISWAP activities have increased the insecurity in the region, enabling the mixing of armed insurgency and organized criminals, including narcotics dealers, extortion rackets, arms trafficking, drugs production and smuggling, kidnapping and fuel smuggling among Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon states. Nexus elements of illicit wealth, illicit transborder crime and terrorism were thus analysed as interdependent and contributing elements to Hybrid threats in the Basin. The study used a hybrid design (qualitative-quantitative) documenting data from the following institutions: …

The Strait Of Hormuz As An Instrument Of Iran’S Geoeconomic Statecraft In Shaping Foreign Policy Amid The Dynamics Of Contemporary Conflicts, Daffa Rabbani Widy Hayat, Noeryfqa Okta Harizal, Ahmad Sahide

Jurnal Wacana Politik

This study examines how Iran strategically utilizes the Strait of Hormuz as an instrument of geoeconomic statecraft in formulating foreign policy amid intensifying international sanctions following the United States withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018. Employing Neoclassical Realism and Geoeconomics as the theoretical framework, this study analyzes how domestic elite decision-making mediates systemic pressure and transforms geographical assets into sources of asymmetric bargaining power. Through a single-case study approach supported by qualitative deep analysis of institutional reports, academic literature, and policy documents, this study finds that Iran systematically operationalizes the Strait of Hormuz through three interconnected mechanisms: asymmetric military signaling, …

The Offense-Defense Balance And The Modern System In Ukraine, Daniel Hogestyn

Master in Public Policy Theses

This thesis evaluates whether the Russo Ukrainian war represents a revolution in military affairs (RMA) by testing Stephen Biddle’s "modern system" theory of battlefield outcomes against recent combat operations. Applying Biddle’s formal model to the 2023 Ukrainian offensive in Zaporizhia, the thesis finds that the offensive's failure conforms closely to Biddle’s causal logic, with force employment variables drawn from 20th century combat sufficient to account for the outcome. Biddle's model in military power argues that force employment has explained victory and defeat since World War I, rather than technology or numerical preponderance alone. Many commentators claim that proliferation of small …

Welcome Tilly Norwood: Forecasting Hollywood’S Ai Policy Futures, Samuel P. Rooker

Senior Honors Projects, 2020-current

In late 2025, weekly trade publication Variety Magazine reported on the announcement of a new acting talent in Hollywood: Tilly Norwood. Norwood is an industry outsider and the pet project of Eline Van der Velden, who unveiled the actress’ existence to the world at the Zurich Film Festival. The announcement quickly gained media coverage while Van der Velden has since faced cyclical backlash from Hollywood trade unions, which does not seem entirely without reason. Tilly Norwood is a digital persona, a generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) program, designed by Van der Velden’s novel AI talent studio, Xicoia, to become the next …

Addressing Sexual Health For Older Veterans By Healthcare Providers: A Mixed Method Study, Andrew James White

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

Background: Older adults remain sexually active, yet sexual health is frequently under-discussed in healthcare settings, particularly within veteran populations. Sexual health is essential to overall quality of life, and prior studies have shown that older patients value these conversations. However, veterans often face unique factors such as military-related trauma, including military combat exposure and post-traumatic stress disorder, in addition to compounded stigma from these topics in regards to open discussions about sensitive health issues to their healthcare providers. This study is significant in its potential to uncover systemic, cultural, and interpersonal influences that shape these dynamics, with a particular emphasis …

Bodies Under Command: A Feminist-Foucauldian Narrative Analysis Of Institutional And Cultural Betrayal In Military Sexual Misconduct, Chelsea Wheeler

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

The military continues to experience alarming rates of sexual aggression, reaching epidemic levels. While all people can experience sexual aggression, women, compared to men, are more likely to experience this, despite women making up only 17 percent of the military. Throughout history, the military has demonstrated several instances of reactive attempts at combating the concerns of sexual aggression; however, these attempts have not been successful. From a feminist-Foucauldian lens, this dissertation research explores narratives of service members to gain a more in-depth understanding of the systemic dynamics that contribute to institutional and cultural betrayal in sexual victimization experiences. Additionally, this …

The Making Of An Extremist: How Do We Become Someone Else’S Nightmare?, María Paula Morales

The Confluence

This article explores how ordinary people can be pulled into extremist movements and what psychological forces drive that process. It looks at three perspectives: social identity theory, which explains how group belonging shapes behavior, identity development, which shows how people searching for meaning may find it in extremist causes; and social neuroscience, which connects radicalization to brain activity linked to fear, loyalty, and moral judgement. Together, these approaches show that radicalization is not simply about ideology but about identity, emotion, and belonging. By understanding these dynamics, we can find better ways to prevent extremism and promote healthier, more inclusive communities.

Treatment Of Different Non-State Actors In Detention: A Legal, Moral, And National Security Analysis, Alison P. Raedel

Senior Honors Projects, 2020-current

This thesis analyzes state behavior regarding the treatment of non-state actors through three major frameworks: international law, ethical theory, and national security. Two cases are compared: the treatment of al-Qaeda detainees by the United States after the attacks of September 11th, 2001, and the treatment of the Angolan liberation movements by the Portuguese during the Angolan War of Independence. These cases were chosen to assess how the three frameworks apply across different non-state actors, which include terrorist organizations and liberation movements. International law provides a baseline for rights and protections, but it is often selectively interpreted. Just war theory gives …

Building A Comprehensive Insider Threat Defense Program, Alan Saquella

Publications

Organizations today face a growing and evolving threat that often originates not from an outside hacker or criminal organization, but from within their own workforce, vendor networks, and trusted partnerships. Insider threats continue to represent one of the most difficult risks to identify, prevent, and mitigate because insiders already possess something external adversaries spend enormous resources trying to obtain: trust, access, and legitimacy.

For decades, many organizations relied heavily on pre-employment criminal history checks and reference verification as their primary safeguard against insider misconduct. While these tools remain important foundational elements of any hiring and risk management program, they are …

Geopolitical Chessboard: How Vietnam Shapes American-Chinese Competition, Kiet H. Lê, Hiep X. Trần

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Vietnam’s geostrategic position—bordering China and commanding key South China Sea maritime routes—makes it a pivotal actor in shaping great-power competition in Southeast Asia. This article argues that the United States should support Vietnam’s neutrality and strategic autonomy as a means of countering Chinese influence. Unlike prior studies that portray regional states as passive players, this analysis highlights Vietnam’s active role in influencing regional dynamics. Through comparative analysis with the Philippines, using historical case studies, geographic assessments, and policy reviews, the article offers practical insights for military and policy practitioners on how geography shapes alliance formation and strategic competition.

Key Themes In Sino-American History, David J. Lorenzo, Ian Murphy

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

This article examines how historical narratives shape the messaging of the Chinese Communist Party and the People’s Republic of China, particularly regarding Sino-American relations. It identifies three key historical themes—trade, discriminatory policies, and Taiwan—that are frequently invoked in China’s statements and information campaigns. By contextualizing these themes, the article argues that military and national security professionals need a deeper understanding of Sino-American history to interpret China’s messaging correctly and counter its influence effectively. The article advocates for the integration of Sino-American historical content into professional military education curricula to enhance strategic awareness and policy formulation.

From The Editor In Chief, C. Anthony Pfaff

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

Welcome to the Summer 2026 issue of Parameters, which consists of two In Focus special commentaries, three forums (Indo-Pacific, Strategy, and Historical Studies) and the Strategic Competition Corner.

Parameters, Usawc Press

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

No abstract provided.

Rethinking Power: E. H. Carr’S Enduring Lessons For Modern Strategists, Brian J. Hasse

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

This article argues E. H. Carr’s classic conception of power provides enduring lessons for national security, but these lessons are easily lost in application. Unlike much of the existing literature, this article emphasizes how modern conceptions of power convey an illusion of balance, while the national security bureaucracy constrains the effective synchronization of power. The analysis leverages both historical and contemporary case studies to identify what a balanced conception of power looks like in practice, with the hope of informing US national security strategy and policy in today’s complex security environment.

How Is Going To War Like Buying A Car?: The Bargaining Model Of War, Richard R. Johnson

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

The bargaining model of war, a popular, yet complex international relations theory, emphasizes how nations communicate signals regarding military strength, resolve to fight, and foreign policy goals. Since the military plays a major role in communicating these signals, its leaders should understand this theory, despite its complexities. This article explains the model and its components through the used car sale bargaining process and supplements the analogy with real-world examples of international events. This article will help military and foreign policy professionals easily grasp the concepts of the model.

A New Security Framework For Nato’S Eastern Flank, Matthew J. Kukla, Anna Batta

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

This article argues for a NATO-EU–led security strategy to achieve long-term deterrence in Ukraine after the end of the Russia-Ukraine War. Unlike existing analyses, this article straddles the strategic level of deterrence, outlining an operational road map. Its historical example of the Iraq War shows that long-term security requires the development of plans before a conflict ends, long-term commitments, and multilateral—not unilateral—security efforts. The proposed solution provides strategic planners and policymakers with a low-risk, high-reward approach that leverages burden sharing through a multinational framework.

Turning Tactical Victories Into Strategic Success: Counterinsurgency In The Irish Civil War, 1922–23, Gareth Prendergast, John A. Nagl

The US Army War College Quarterly: Parameters

The fundamentals the Irish National Army used in the Irish Civil War (1922–23) are a model for the successful application of a classic counterinsurgency which, if understood earlier, could have made a difference in the United States’ most recent wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Irish Civil War has not been examined in-depth through the lens of modern counterinsurgency doctrine. This article draws on military history and recent counterinsurgency doctrines to provide US policymakers and military practitioners practical guidance for how counterinsurgent forces can foster trust and use appropriate tactics that lead to strategic success.

Book Review: China's Air Power And Maritime Strategies Towards The Indian Ocean Region, Punsara Amarasinghe

Parameters Bookshelf – Online Book Reviews

Author: Joshy M. Paul

Reviewed by: Dr. Punsara Amarasinghe, Institute of Law, Politics and Development, Scuola Superiore Sant’Anna, Pisa, Italy

How is China reshaping the strategic balance in the Indian Ocean? In China's Air Power and Maritime Strategies Towards the Indian Ocean Region, Joshy M. Paul explores Beijing’s military modernization, naval expansion, and airpower ambitions as it seeks dominance through bases, partnerships, and economic leverage. This timely analysis reveals the growing contest between China’s expeditionary capabilities and India’s deterrence strategies in one of the world’s most critical maritime theaters.

©2026 Punsara Amarasinghe

Book Review: Hero Of Fort Sumter: The Extraordinary Life Of Robert Anderson, Bradford Wineman

Parameters Bookshelf – Online Book Reviews

Author: Wesley Moody

Reviewed by: Dr. Bradford Wineman, professor of military history, Marine Corps University

In Hero of Fort Sumter: The Extraordinary Life of Robert Anderson, Wesley Moody brings to life the man whose stand at the dawn of the Civil War helped shape the nation’s destiny. From frontier battles to the dramatic siege of Fort Sumter, Anderson’s story is one of quiet courage and pivotal leadership. This compelling biography reveals how one soldier’s sense of duty helped ignite a war—and preserve a Union.