Economics Commons^™

Why Does Bad News Increase Volatility And Decrease Leverage?, Ana Fostel, John Geanakoplos

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The literature on leverage until now shows how an increase in volatility reduces leverage. However, in order to explain pro-cyclical leverage it assumes that bad news increases volatility. This paper suggests a reason why bad news is more often than not associated with higher future volatility. We show that, in a model with endogenous leverage and heterogeneous beliefs, agents have the incentive to invest mostly in technologies that become volatile in bad times. Together with the old literature this explains pro-cyclical leverage. The result also gives rationale to the pattern of volatility smiles observed in the stock options since 1987. …

Why Does Bad News Increase Volatility And Decrease Leverage?, Ana Fostel, John Geanakoplos

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

A recent literature shows how an increase in volatility reduces leverage. However, in order to explain pro-cyclical leverage it assumes that bad news increases volatility, that is, it assumes an inverse relationship between first and second moments of asset returns. This paper suggests a reason why bad news is more often than not associated with higher future volatility. We show that, in a model with endogenous leverage and heterogeneous beliefs, agents have the incentive to invest mostly in technologies that become more volatile in bad times. Agents choose these technologies because they can be leveraged more during normal times. Together …

Is The Export-Led-Growth Hypothesis, Valid For Egypt? A Time Series Approach, Nagwa Khashaba, Abdelhamid Mahboub, William Latham, Mostafa Aboelsoud

Economics

This research addresses important empirical questions regarding the relationship between Egyptian exports and Egyptian economic growth by extending the Dirtsakis’s model (Dritsakis, 2004, p. 1834) with the addition of the labor force into the model. The hypothesis to be tested is, does export expansion cause economic growth in Egypt? In other words, is the Export-Led-Growth (ELG) hypothesis valid for Egypt?

This study analyzes the issue of ELG hypothesis in Egypt using the VAR analysis, quarterly time-series data over the period 1991:q1-2009:q4. The results tend to favor the effectiveness and validity of the ELG hypothesis for Egypt.

Centennial Hills Active Adult Center Business Plan, K. C. Brekken, Jeff Buchanan, David Gordon, Doug Guild

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

The economic indicators for the state of Nevada indicate a bleak financial future. The foreclosure rate of the Las Vegas Valley is five times the national average and the highest rate in the country (Hoak, 2010). Sales tax revenues continue spiraling down and fell by 6.6 percent in December 2009 from December 2008 (Garcia, 2010). State politicians face an estimated budget deficit of $3.5 billion. Local conditions are equally dire. The City of Las Vegas faces a budget shortfall of nearly $69 million for this fiscal year (Choate, 2010). City administrators struggle to find creative solutions to fill financial gaps …

Health And Growth: Causality Through Education, Rui Huang, Lilyan E. Fulginiti, E. Wesley Peterson

Department of Agricultural Economics: Faculty Publications

Purpose--The paper theoretically and empirically investigates the impact on human capital investment decisions and income growth of lowered life expectancy as a result of HIV/AIDS and other diseases. Design/methodology/approach--The theoretical model is a three-period overlapping generations model where individuals go through three stages in their life, namely, young, adult and old. The model extends existing theoretical models by allowing the probability of premature death to differ for individuals at different life stage, and by allowing for stochastic technological advances. The empirical investigation focuses on the effect of HIV/AIDS on life expectancy and on the role of health on educational investments …

System Dynamics Implementation Of An Extended Brander And Taylor-Like Easter Island Model, Takuro Uehara, Yoko Nagase, Wayne Wakeland

Complex Systems Faculty Publications and Presentations

We provide a system dynamics implementation of a dynamic ecological economics model. Dynamic economic models are often constrained to use functions, such as the Cobb-Douglas function, chosen “conveniently” to allow for analytic solutions. The C-D function, however, suffers from its fixed elasticity that does not allow for the substitutability between man-made capital and natural capital to change, which is vital for economic sustainability. Using system dynamics removes this constraint and enables more realistic ecological economics models containing functions not amenable to analytic solution. The base model is the natural resource and population growth model developed by Brander and Taylor (1998) …

Investor Knowledge And Investment Barriers., Steven Doman

Student Works (2010-2019)

The world of investing in the various products related to the stock and bond markets is confusing for many people. This is a problem since financial investments often represent a large portion of an individual’s personal assets. As regulators begin to search for answers about what caused the economic crisis of 2008-2009 and try to pass regulations that will prevent it from happening again, investors will continue to look to the products of investment firms to help accomplish their financial goals. Unfortunately for investors, many will continue to choose investments based on very limited personal knowledge. Investment firms will in …

A Comparison Of Maine’S Per Capita Spending, 1996-2006 To The Us And Other States, Ryan Boyd

Muskie School Capstones and Dissertations

The Great Recession of 2008-2010 is showing that the states and national government have spent too much. We need the vision of Thomas Friedman to move beyond our spending and planning habits of the past.1

In 2016, expenditures compared to 2006 will look very different, unlike the previous similarities of 1996 to 2006. This retraction, due to the recession and our government’s embracement of concerns about debt from policy wonks such as former US Comptroller David Walker, debt will have a significant affect on many populations of our society. Maine has been noted as being a state that looks after …

The Economic Review Of The Travel Industry In Montana: 2010 Biennial Edition, Kara Grau

Institute for Tourism and Recreation Research Publications

This review provides current and historical data of nonresident travel and tourism in Montana, and offers the industry's economic contributions to the state.

Why Some Vocational Rehabilitation Clients Leave The System Early, Bethany Rigles, Catherine Ipsen, University Of Montana Rural Institute

Employment

Almost half of Vocational Rehabilitation (VR) clients leave the system before completing services. This situation, called “premature exit,” includes cases when clients refuse to continue services or fail to cooperate, as well as when VR loses touch with clients because of inaccurate contact information. Premature exits are a problem for both clients and agencies. Clients who prematurely exit the system experience worse economic outcomes than clients who stay and become employed (Hayward & Schmidt-Davis, 2003). For agencies, premature exits translate into significant costs without positive employment outcomes. In 2006 alone, VR spent more than $207.5 million on cases closed as …

(Wp 2010-03) Subsidizing Religious Participation Through Groups: A Model Of The "Megachurch" Strategy For Growth, Marc Von Der Ruhr, Joseph P. Daniels

Economics Working Papers

Either despite or because of their non-traditional approach, megachurches have grown significantly in the United States since 1980. This paper models religious participation as an imperfect public good which, absent intervention, yields suboptimal participation by members from the church’s perspective. Megachurches address this problem by employing secular based group activities to subsidize religious participation in an effort to increase attendees’ religious investment. This strategy not only allows megachurches to attract and retain new members when many traditional churches are losing members, but also results in higher levels of individual satisfaction thereby allowing the megachurch to raise levels of commitment and …

Analisis Pengaruh Kebebasan Ekonomi Dan Politik Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Delapan Negara Asean Periode 1997 - 2007, Riandy Laksono

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Indonesia

Economic and political systems might have a great share in determining the speed of the economic growth in an economy. Majority of the researchs in the past relied on physical input accumulation in determining economic growth, without taking into account the contribution of institutional characteristics. This research is aimed to test the hypothesis that economic freedom and political system affect the economic growth. Using panel data method (pooled least square approach) in eight ASEAN countries during the perioo of 1997-2007 and based on a framework of Solow economic growth model, it is showed that the more free and efficient economy …

Mexico Consensus Economic Forecast, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Teodulo Soto

Border Region Modeling Project

No abstract provided.

Forecasting Philippine Monthly Inflation Using Tramo/Seats, Cesar C. Rufino

DLSU Business & Economics Review

The study aims to explore the feasibility of adopting for inflation forecasting a sophisticated expert system normally used in routine outlier detection and deseasonalization of time series. Known as TRAMO/SEATS expert system, this twin program is a fully automatic procedure that extracts the trend-cycle, seasonal, irregular and certain transitory components of high frequency time series via the so-called ARIMA-model-based method. The results of the study reveal the feasibility of the use of the technique for routine inflation forecasting. The automatic model building capability of TRAMO/SEATS is exploited to arrive at an ex-ante model that has the ability to generate optimal …

Values Of Females And Males In The East And West: Are They Similar Or Different?, Arnel Onesimo O. Uy, Edward F. Murphy, Regina A. Greenwood

DLSU Business & Economics Review

Understanding whether cross-cultural values are similar or different has become more important in an increasingly global marketplace. Yet, few studies have explored cross-cultural sex-based value structures. This study examines the values of 5,134 male and female working adults in three Eastern nations (Japan, the Philippines, and Thailand) and three Western nations (United States, United Kingdom, and Iceland). For similarities, males and females more highly valued personal than social terminal values. For differences, males in the East more highly valued self-actualization/competence instrumental values. Females in both geographic groups placed higher importance on social terminal values than did males, supporting prior research.

Impact Of Hiked Prices Of Food And Basic Commodities On Poverty In Cambodia: Empirical Evidences From Cbms Five Villages, Try Sothearith, So Sovannarith

DLSU Business & Economics Review

The study on the impact of hiked prices of food and basic commodities on poverty is designed as a follow-up CBMS survey of 5 villages in a Northwest province of Cambodia. The hiked prices in Cambodia and in CBMS sites occurred when there were changes in demand and prices of petrol, food and other consumer goods at the international market. The rising prices have immediately resulted in food insecurity for many people and pushed small landholders into indebtedness and deteriorated the capacity of the poor to cope with any future shocks or crises. This requires a stronger social safety net …

Effects Of Rising Food And Oil Prices On Rural Households In Ghana: A Case Study Of Selected Communities In The Dangme West District Using The Cbms Approach, Felix A. Asante, Cynthia A. Tagoe, Alfred A. Boakye

DLSU Business & Economics Review

This study sought to examine the effects of rising food and oil prices on rural households in Ghana in relation to their food, access to healthcare and education, changes in their work situations, their financial management practices, and their recreational and leisure practices using three selected communities in the Dangme West district of the Greater Accra region – Dodowa, Ningo, and Prampram. A total of 300 households were interviewed. The households were divided concerning the issue of whether their standard of living was better, worse or had remained the same. In general, households that indicated they were worse off currently …

Analysis Of The Impact Of Changes In The Prices Of Rice And Fuel On Poverty In The Philippines, Celia M. Reyes, Alellie B. Sobrevinas, Joel Bancolita, Jeremy De Jesus

DLSU Business & Economics Review

This study aims to assess the impact of rising prices of rice and fuel on poverty in the Philippines. In particular, the variations in the potential effects among different group of households were analyzed using household level data. Results of the study confirm that the impact of increasing prices of rice and fuel vary across different groups of households depending on the sector of employment, level of urbanity, income group and geographical location. In fact, there are losers and gainers from the recent increases in the prices of rice and fuel. In response to higher prices, households adopted different coping …

Prospect Theory And The Financial Markets: A Review, Paulo Jose M. Mutuc

DLSU Business & Economics Review

The Prospect Theory as proposed by Kahneman and Tversky (1979) has emerged as a widely accepted theory of decision-making, thanks largely to the persistence of observed anomalies in the trading of financial products – specifically, the existence of an unusually large premium on equities, and the tendency to hold on to losing investments (disposition effect). Questions about the true nature and extent of reference-dependent loss aversion as manifested by these phenomena, however, remain. In particular, for countries like the Philippines with relatively shallow capital markets, there is a need to reconcile financial education and advice with the reality of systematically …

The Context Of Cultural Intelligence – A Book Review Of David Livermore’S Leading With Cultural Intelligence: The New Secret To Success, Emiliano T. Hudtohan

DLSU Business & Economics Review

Livermore’s contribution to global leadership is his pioneering work on cultural intelligence (CQ), a new addition to a growing number of multiple formulations of human intelligences and quotients. By addressing culture as a key factor of leadership in a global context, he now provides a neutral perspective on culture for corporate leaders. This perspective is aligned with the growing trend of understanding other cultures and civilizations with empathy. Leading with Cultural Intelligence: The New Secret to Success may yet facilitate the implementation of global hypernorms proposed in integrative social contract theory and facilitate compliance to global standards of codes of …