Economics Commons^™

Efficient Search By Committee, Dirk Bergemann, Juuso Välimäki

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

This note constructs an efficient mechanism for finding the best candidate for a committee from a sequence of potential candidates. Committee members have independent private values information about the quality of the candidate. The mechanism selects the best candidate according to the standard utilitarian welfare criterion. Furthermore, the mechanism can be modified to have a balanced budget.

Economic & Political Factors For Renewable Energy In The United States, Jeremiah Daniel Yokley

Masters Theses

The results of this study provide some insight to how qualitative regime variables affect the production of renewable energy in the United States. Specifically this paper found that while working with other variables the political affiliation of the President of the United States and the party holding the majority of seats in the United States House of Representatives and Senate can aid in forecasting renewable energy production growth. With this insight it is possible to better prepare for future energy investments by either governments or the private sector. This paper specifically examines total renewable energy production, hydroelectric energy production, solar …

Estimating The Size Of The Informal Sector In Latin America, George T. Lesica

Masters Theses

The informal sector has always been assumed to exist but was not studied intently until the 1970s when economic events in the US and Europe led scholars to consider just how much economic activity was occurring but not being accounted for. Since that time it has been studied more vigorously but very little progress has been made in understanding it.

In this paper I develop estimates of the size of the informal sector using two different methods. First, a panel of estimates for several Latin American countries will be constructed using the Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) method for several …

Forecasting Exchange Rates Using Neural Networks: A Trader's Approach, Adam Stokes

Masters Theses

This study is to investigate the use of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) for forecasting exchange rates. The currencies examined in the paper are the Euro, Pound, and Yen. Two different types of ANNs are used in this paper: Feedforward and Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Input (NARX). Forecasts are made for daily and weekly exchange rates using the open, high, low, and close of the exchange rates. Many standard econometric models cannot deal with daily and weekly forecasts due to many macro economic variables not being available at such frequencies. ANNs are able to deal with daily and weekly data as …

A Marxian Analysis Of Inter-Industry Linkages And The Time Structure Of Production, Jeff Schatz

Symposium on Research and Creative Expression (SORCE)

In this paper we analyze and model the flows of capital in an interlinked economy exhibiting complete simple reproduction. Drawing heavily on Marx's description of circulation in volume 2 of Capital, we graphically and symbolically model the transfer of value between money, productive, and commodity capital. In addition, we allow for the creation of surplus value through production. Combining this with Marx's discussion of simple reproduction and the MELT (Monetary Expression of Labor Time), our model illustrates a capitalist economy in a state of general equilibrium. As a powerful descriptive tool, this mathematical and Maple-coded model combines the insights of …

Structurally Unbalanced: Cyclical And Structural Deficits In Arizona, Matthew Murray, Kristin Borns, Susan Clark-Johnson, Mark Muro, Jennifer Vey, Brookings Mountain West, Morrison Institute For Public Policy

Brookings Mountain West Publications

Though the Great Recession may be officially over, all is not well in Arizona. Three years after the collapse of a massive real estate “bubble,” the deepest economic downturn in memory exposed and exacerbated one of the nation’s most profound state fiscal crises, with disturbing implications for Arizona citizens and the state’s long-term economic health. This brief takes a careful look at the Grand Canyon State’s fiscal situation, examining both Arizona’s serious cyclical budget shortfall—the one resulting from a temporary collapse of revenue due to the recession—as well as the chronic, longer-term, and massive structural imbalances that have developed largely …

A World Macro Saving Fact And An Explanation, Ray C. Fair

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The world macro saving fact concerns the total financial saving of the world’s private sector divided by world GDP. Relative to changes before 1994, there was a huge fall in this ratio between 1995 and 2000, a huge increase between 2000 and 2003, a huge fall between 2003 and 2006, and a huge increase between 2006 and 2009. This fact is documented in this paper. The paper also shows that the fluctuations in this ratio are highly correlated with fluctuations in world stock and housing prices. It thus appears that much of the variation in the world private saving rate …

Bias In Estimating Multivariate And Univariate Diffusions, Xiaohu Wang, Peter C.B. Phillips, Jun Yu

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

Multivariate continuous time models are now widely used in economics and finance. Empirical applications typically rely on some process of discretization so that the system may be estimated with discrete data. This paper introduces a framework for discretizing linear multivariate continuous time systems that includes the commonly used Euler and trapezoidal approximations as special cases and leads to a general class of estimators for the mean reversion matrix. Asymptotic distributions and bias formulae are obtained for estimates of the mean reversion parameter. Explicit expressions are given for the discretization bias and its relationship to estimation bias in both multivariate and …

Specification Testing For Nonlinear Cointegrating Regression, Qiying Wang, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

We provide a limit theory for a general class of kernel smoothed U statistics that may be used for specification testing in time series regression with nonstationary data. The framework allows for linear and nonlinear models of cointegration and regressors that have autoregressive unit roots or near unit roots. The limit theory for the specification test depends on the self intersection local time of a Gaussian process. A new weak convergence result is developed for certain partial sums of functions involving nonstationary time series that converges to the intersection local time process. This result is of independent interest and useful …

First Difference Mle And Dynamic Panel Estimation, Chirok Han, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

First difference maximum likelihood (FDML) seems an attractive estimation methodology in dynamic panel data modeling because differencing eliminates fixed effects and, in the case of a unit root, differencing transforms the data to stationarity, thereby addressing both incidental parameter problems and the possible effects of nonstationarity. This paper draws attention to certain pathologies that arise in the use of FDML that have gone unnoticed in the literature and that affect both finite sample peformance and asymptotics. FDML uses the Gaussian likelihood function for first differenced data and parameter estimation is based on the whole domain over which the log-likelihood is …

Folklore Theorems, Implicit Maps And New Unit Root Limit Theory, Peter C.B. Phillips

Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers

The delta method and continuous mapping theorem are among the most extensively used tools in asymptotic derivations in econometrics. Extensions of these methods are provided for sequences of functions, which are commonly encountered in applications, and where the usual methods sometimes fail. Important examples of failure arise in the use of simulation based estimation methods such as indirect inference. The paper explores the application of these methods to the indirect inference estimator (IIE) in first order autoregressive estimation. The IIE uses a binding function that is sample size dependent. Its limit theory relies on a sequence-based delta method in the …

Geopolitics, Oil Law Reform, And Commodity Market Expectations, Robert Bejesky

Oklahoma Law Review

No abstract provided.

Competition Red, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Classical definition of costs by Anwar Shaikh, PhD
• Notes on fixed capital and joint production by Anwar Shaikh, PhD
• Models of adjustment of mkt prices to POP by Anwar Shaikh, PhD
• Price, marginal cost and the business cycle by Jonathan Haskel, Christopher Martin, and Ian Small
• Four themes present in the discussion of PE by Anwar Shaikh, PhD
• Competition of capital mobility by Anwar Shaikh, PhD
• Profit rates within industry by Anwar Shaikh, PhD
• The structure of Kalecki's theory by Anwar Shaikh, PhD
• Average and incremental profit rates: US and OECD by Anwar Shaikh, PhD
• Correspondence to …

Us Japan Trade Paper, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Notes on cointegration testing procedures for exchange rate models — Shaikh, A., PhD. Unpublished manuscript notes, dated December 2, 2011.
• Notes on OECD aggregate weighting and lag-selection criteria — Shaikh, A., PhD. Unpublished manuscript notes, undated.
• Explaining long term exchange rate behavior in the United States and Japan — Shaikh, A., and Antonopoulos, R. Levy Economics Institute of Bard College Working Paper No. 250, published 1998. This copy is a later revised version with data updated through 2008; the revision itself is undated.
• My XR theory: short run adjustments — Shaikh, A., PhD. Unpublished manuscript notes, dated …

Global Economic Governance Notes, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Global economic governance, global inequality and the role of the united nations presentation script. Shaikh, A. 2011. New York. [Unpublished conference materials].
• Handwritten notes on global economic governance panel speakers. Shaikh, A. 2011. [Unpublished manuscript]. Department of Economics, The New School for Social Research.
• Handwritten prep notes for panel address. Shaikh, A. 2011. [Unpublished manuscript]. Department of Economics, The New School for Social Research.
• Global economic governance, global inequality and the role of the un list of participants. Friedrich Ebert Stiftung, & UBUNTU Forum. 2011. New York. [Unpublished conference materials].
• Global economic governance, …

Microfoundations Revisions, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Shaikh, A. March 11, 2011. Chapter 3: microfoundations revisions (Handwritten folder notes). Unpublished work. New York, NY: New School for Social Research.
• Shaikh, A. December 2, 2009. What's left of microeconomics? Microfoundations and emergent macro properties (Unpublished manuscript draft). Unpublished work. New York, NY: New School for Social Research.
• Shaikh, A. July 4, 2012. Micro talk NSSR (Handwritten lecture notes). Unpublished work. New York, NY: New School for Social Research.
• Shaikh, A. December 2, 2009. Rethinking microeconomics: a proposed reconstruction (Unpublished manuscript draft). Unpublished work. New York, NY: New School for Social Research.
• Shaikh, A. December 2, …

The Impact Of Opinion On Foreign Trade, Nikolaus Williams

Masters Culminating Experiences (1993-2011)

This paper examines the impact that opinion has on foreign trade. Specifically, the paper examines how opinion towards the U.S. impacts U.S. exports and how changes in opinion toward the U.S. impact U.S. exports. Using survey data from the Pew Global Attitudes Projects and export data, the paper examines these relationships for 21 countries between 2002 and 2010. Regression analysis of the panel data reveals that positive opinion levels and positive changes in opinion have statistically significant positive impacts on U.S. exports. However, this conclusion is somewhat tempered by the unbalanced nature of the available data which prevents a greater …

The Dogs Of The Dow In China, Carol Wang, James E. Larsen, M. Fall Ainina, Marlena L. Akhbari, Nicholas Gressis

Finance and Financial Services Faculty Publication

The unique institutional environment of China's stock markets provides a rich setting to study the relationship between investors‟ behavior and market returns in the case of information inefficiency. This study extends the well documented Dogs of the Dow (Dow Dogs) strategy to China's A share stock market. We find that Dow Dogs portfolios significantly outperform the market benchmark for the period of 1994 to 2009 in China's markets. Further analysis indicates that (1) The fewer Dogs included in the portfolio, the greater the portfolio abnormal returns; (2) In general, the shorter holding period (in months), the greater the portfolio abnormal …

Why The Dogs Of The Dow Bark Loudly In China, Carol Wang, James E. Larsen, M. Fall Ainina, Marlena L. Akhbari, Nicholas Gressis

Finance and Financial Services Faculty Publication

Problem statement: The Dogs of the Dow (Dow Dogs) strategy, which has gained widespread popularity in the U.S., is found to be considerably successful in China’s stock markets. This trading strategy contradicts the well-established efficient market hypothesis. Approach: This study examines the cross-sectional variations in the magnitude of the predictive power of the Dow Dogs strategy using Chinese stocks for 1994-2009. Results: Our results suggest that (1) Significant Dow Dogs effect apply to Class A shares, but not Class B shares; (2) Stocks priced between 1and1and5 demonstrate the strongest Dogs effect among all stock price ranges; (3) Changes in share …

Africa's Economic Resurgence: Is It Possible?, Alka Jauhari

Political Science & Global Affairs Faculty Publications

Economic theory suggests that inequality between nations is caused by a failure to strike an optimal balance between capital, goods, and labor within a framework of appropriate rules and regulations. This leads to misallocation of a nation's resources - both capital and physical - resulting in distorted use and flow of capital and goods. Politics, regulation and policy-making lie at the heart of such "distortions" which come at a huge cost to societies. Due to these distorted flows, Africa was left behind in the race for economic development, as compared to the other regions of the world. Such distortions have …