Macroeconomics Commons^™

Responsiveness Of Nigeria's Short-Term Interest Rates To Changes In The Policy Rate, M. K. Tule

Economic and Financial Review

This paper appraises the efficacy of the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) as an anchor for other short-term interest rates in the economy. Adopting the vector autoregression approach, the responses of Nigeria's short-term interest rates to changes in the interbank rate (proxy for MPR) was modelled. The paper found that the pass-through from MPR to money market interest rates in the long-run is higher for the prime and lending rates than for changes in the Treasury bill rate and 3-month deposit rate. Overall, there seemed to be an asymmetric impact with an increase or fall in the interbank rate.

The Development Pattern And Competitiveness Evaluation Research On China Inland Dry Port, Min Shi

World Maritime University Dissertations

No abstract provided.

Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interaction: An Empirical Analysis In Egypt, Sahar M. Abdel-Haleim, Mohamed Hassan, Lobna M. Abdel-Latif

Business Administration

This paper examines the effect of the developments introduced since 2003 in Egypt on the nature of interaction of monetary and fiscal policies and the achievement of macroeconomic objectives. Utilizing the Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) approach, the dynamic interaction of policies and their effects on macroeconomic aggregates are investigated. The findings support the success of the developments in eliminating the fiscal dominance. However, coordination between policies is still weak to achieve the macroeconomic stabilization objectives. The results also prove the conventional Keynesian effect of fiscal policy on real GDP. However, the fiscal multiplier is very small. Likewise, expansionary monetary policy …

Economic Impacts Of Increased Corporate Average Fuel Economy (Cafe) Standards, Ann K. Hunter-Pirtle

Department of Agricultural Economics: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research

The Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) mandates that U.S. transportation fuel producers blend specific volumes of ethanol and other biofuels with fossil fuels to spur U.S. biofuel production and to minimize foreign oil imports. Ethanol is more corrosive to auto engines than gasoline, and although vehicles manufactured since 2001 are approved to use up to a 15% ethanol blend (E15) (Naylor & Falcon, 2011), E10 is much more widely available. Ethanol producers therefore face a so-called blend wall at 10 percent—a maximum amount of ethanol that is usable domestically based on the demand for gasoline.

Meanwhile, gasoline demand in the U.S. …

Resolution Of Bad Loan Problem: Bank-Level Evidence From A Low-Income Country, Abu S. Amin, Lucy Chernykh, Mahmood Osman Imam

WCBT Faculty Publications

How do banks resolve a severe bad loan problem in a capital-constrained, low income country when a government bailout is not an option? We address this question by examining new evidence of a sharp decline in bad loan ratios in a panel of domestic banks in Bangladesh. On the aggregate level, the share of nonperforming loans in this market has dropped six fold, from above 41% in 1999 to below 7% in 2010. Notably, this dramatic improvement did not involve the creation of any centralized asset management facilities but relied on the bank management and governance reforms. We find that …

A Backward Bending Supply Of Loanable Funds: An Examination Of The Interest Rate Elasticity Of Saving, Rachel M. Doehr Ms.

Undergraduate Economic Review

The market for loanable funds is presented as either a market with an upward sloping supply curve, or as one with a perfectly inelastic supply. This paper relates the supply of loanable funds to the supply curve in the labor market: backward bending. Once interest rates are high enough, people start to save less, creating the "backward bend.” This explains the discrepancies in previous literature that attempted to put a single value on the interest rate elasticity saving. The reason for the variation in values could be because the elasticity actually depends on the point on the curve.

Will The U.S. Velocity Of Money Step Up Again? New Evidence From The Random Walk Hypothesis, Anh Thu Tran Xuan

Undergraduate Economic Review

The recent decrease in U.S. money velocity raises debates about its unit root behavior. This paper revisited the random walk hypothesis (RWH) of the U.S. money velocity in 1960-2010 and two sub-periods 1960-85 and 1986-2010 by applying the Variance Ratio methodologies, including new nonparametric tests by Wright (2000) and Belaire-Franch and Contreras (2004). The results suggested that the velocity would likely increase, and the U.S. monetary policy will soon stimulate GDP and employment. Furthermore, past velocity is important to predict the future outcomes, and changes in financial structural could alter the empirical characteristics of the velocity series.

The Spanish Export Led Recovery, David Wagner

Undergraduate Economic Review

I researched the export-led recovery currently taking place in Spain. My thesis revolved around Mariano Rajoy and the Popular Party coming into power in 2011 and instituting reforms in three distinct categories; financial market reforms, fiscal measures, and labor market reforms. These reforms have had a significant impact in restoring credibility in Spain's capital markets and decreasing unit labor costs. In turn, Spain has shown impressive export growth in the past two years, especially compared to its neighbors Italy and France.

Essays On The Changing Nature Of Business Cycle Fluctuations: A State-Level Study Of Jobless Recoveries And The Great Moderation, Jared David Reber

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

The behavior of several important macroeconomic variables has changed dramatically over the past several business cycles in the U.S. These changes, which began around the mid-1980s, have been viewed as somewhat puzzling given the stark contrast they exhibit to earlier post-war data. The movement of output and employment has historically been highly correlated throughout the different phases of the business cycle. However, this changed with the economic recovery of 1991. Since then, periods of output recovery have been accompanied by periods of prolonged job loss. These periods have come to be known as "jobless recoveries". Several competing explanations for this …

Experimental Evidence For Heterogeneous Expectations In A Simple New Keynesian Framework, Atticus David Holm Graven

Business and Economics Honors Papers

This paper is a two-dimensional analysis of agent behavior in a standard New Keynesian (NK) Macroeconomic model. On the dimension of pure mathematics, we analyze the parameters of the NK model and of possible prediction rules. On the other dimension we continue a practice of empirical study of heterogeneous expectations with an experiment. The experiment will ask participants to make predictions of future output and inflation. Their responses will create a data-set upon which analysis will be performed to illuminate and corroborate current theories of economic decision making. The literature has shown that most agents' forecasting rules can be modeled …

A Theory Of Aggregate Consumption, Yun K. Kim, Mark Setterfield, Yuan Mei

Research Collection School Of Economics

We develop a Keynesian model of aggregate consumption. Our theory emphasizes the importance of the relative income hypothesis and debt finance for understanding household consumption behavior. It is shown that particular importance attaches to how net debtor households service their debts, and that the treatment of debt-servicing commitments as a substitute for savings by these households creates the potential for 'sudden stops' in consumption spending (and hence aggregate demand).

Game-Theoretic Foundations Of Monetary Equilibrium, Gabriele Camera, Alessandro Gioffré

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

According to theory, money supports trade in a world without enforcement and, in particular, in large societies, where gift-exchange is unsustainable. It is demonstrated that, in fact, monetary equilibrium breaks down in the absence of adequate enforcement institutions and it collapses as societies that lack external enforcement grow large. This unique result is derived by unveiling the existence of a tacit enforcement assumption in the literature that explains the advantages from monetary exchange, and by integrating monetary theory with the theory of repeated games and social norms.

A Study Of Regional Economies In The United States, Tanios Bou Onk

Honors Program Theses and Research Projects

Using multiple time series based on data gathered from reliable government agencies I will compare the effects of national inflation, fluctuations in national GDP, and fluctuations in national employment on the personal income of multiple Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA), with the effects that local (MSA) inflation, fluctuations in local GDP, and fluctuations in local employment in multiple MSAs have on real national GDP. This analysis will be limited to four metropolitan areas, San Antonio, Texas, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, San Diego, California, and Cincinnati-Hamilton, Ohio. These metropolitan areas are each in a different region located within the United States. This was done …

An Examination Of The Structural Inflation Dynamics In Nigeria, O. J. Odonye, S. O. Odeniran, A. O. Oduyemi, O. J. Olaoye, K. J. Ajayi

Economic and Financial Review

This study examines the dynamics of inflation in Nigeria, including the structural evolution as well as the direction of its movement with a view to designing appropriate policy measures to rein in the inflationary pressures. The study utilized quarterly data from 1970(1) to 2013 (4) except for Bureau de Change (BDC) premium where the duration was 1991(1) to 2013 (4) based on Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The results show that structural factors like budget deficit, rainfall, variation in export, exchange rate premium have profound influence on movement in CPI in Nigeria during the period.

Oil Price Shocks And Real Exchange Rate Movement In Nigeria, M. K. Tule, D. Osude

Economic and Financial Review

This paper investigated the relationship between oil price and real exchange rate movement in Nigeria. Crude oil exports account for over 90 per cent of Nigeria's foreign exchange earnings hence, the economy may be vulnerable to instability in international oil prices, which the country as a small open economy, cannot influence. Using monthly data covering the period 2000 to 2013, this study employs GARCH process to test the relationship between oil price and exchange rate volatility in Nigeria. The results of GARCH (1,1) and EGARCH (1,1) suggest the persistence of volatility between real oil prices and the real exchange rate. …

Central Bank Of Nigeria Annual Report And Statement Of Accounts For The Year Ended 31st December 2014, Central Bank Of Nigeria

CBN Annual Report

Annual Report and Financial Statements of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) for the year ended 31st December, 2014. In general, 2014 has been a very eventful and challenging year for the Bank, the country, and the world at large. In the course of the year, the Bank underwent significant changes in its governance composition. In 2014, the global economy witnessed considerable vulnerabilities characterized by fragile growth and weak economic outlook. Global growth recovery was modest and continued to be threatened by strong downside risks, as a result of sharp drop in commodity prices, escalating geo-political tensions, and heightening threats …

A Simple Treatment Of The Liquidity Trap For Intermediate Macroeconomics Courses, Sebastien Buttet, Udayan Roy

Publications and Research

Several leading undergraduate intermediate macroeconomics textbooks now include a simple reduced-form New Keynesian model of short-run dynamics (alongside the IS-LM model). Unfortunately, there is no accompanying description of how the zero lower bound on nominal interest rates affects the model. In this article, the authors show how the aforementioned model can easily be modified to teach undergraduate students about the significance of the zero lower bound for economic performance and policy. This acquires additional significance because economies such as the United States and Japan have been close to the zero lower bound since 2008 and 1995, respectively. The authors show …

Loose Notes, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes: (23-33_Loos... p. 1)

• Interview notes on the Great Recession by Anwar Shaikh, PhD (23-33_Loos... p. 2)
• Commentary on Juan Martín Graña's analysis by Anwar Shaikh, PhD (23-33_Loos... p. 3)
• Argentina variables data charts by Anwar Shaikh, PhD (23-33_Loos... p. 5)
• Notes on Streeck's lecture "Has capitalism seen its day?" by Anwar Shaikh, PhD (23-33_Loos... p. 6)
• Notes on Argentina development and industrial policy by Anwar Shaikh, PhD (23-33_Loos... p. 7)

Mergers & Abenomics: The Determinants Of M&A In Japan's New Economy, Ethan S. Hallberg

CMC Senior Theses

This paper investigates the influence of various macroeconomic variables on Japan’s merger and acquisition (M&A) activity, both in terms of total deal value and total number of deals. Looking at monthly data from June 1997 to December 2013, I use econometric time-series analysis to find that: First, total deal value per month is not well explained by our macroeconomic variables, but about half of the variation in number of deals per month can be explained by our dataset. Second, the most important determinant in the total number of deals per month during our period is the level of national debt, …

The Liberalization Of Shibor And The Economic Fundamentals Of House Price Growth In China, Michael J. Mavredakis

CMC Senior Theses

This paper uses data collected from the National Interbank Funding Center of China, the People’s Bank of China, the National Bureau of Statistics, and Bloomberg starting in October 2006 through 2013 to test the economic fundamental’s affecting the housing market in Shanghai, particularly interest rates. This study finds that the 6- month duration Shibor has a negative and significant correlation with house price growth in Shanghai when lagged 4 months. The analysis continues by examining other economic fundamentals affecting house price growth, finding growth in inflation, the money supply and Shanghai real estate investment to have significant, positive relationships with …