Macroeconomics Commons^™

Essays On Monetary Policy Rules And Inflation Dynamics, Saad Ahmad

Graduate Theses and Dissertations

There has been a growing trend to utilize nonlinear models to analyze key issues in monetary policy and international macroeconomics. Using traditional linear models to understand nonlinear relationships can often lead to inaccurate inference and erroneous policy recommendations. The three essays in this dissertation explore nonlinearity in the Federal Reserve’s policy response as well as between a country’s inflation dynamics and integration in the global economy. My aim in accounting for potential nonlinearity is to get a better understanding of the policy makers’ opportunistic approach to monetary policy and evaluate the inflation globalization hypothesis, which basically predicts that global factors …

Natural Disasters In Latin America: The Role Of Disaster Type And Productive Sector On The Urban-Rural Income Gap And Rural To Urban Migration, Madeline Alice Messick

Dissertations

This research provides insight into the impact of natural disasters as drivers of rural to urban migration in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). Disasters of varying types are predicted to have differing impacts on the productive sectors of agriculture, industry, and services; which due to the concentration of the various productive sectors in either urban or rural areas, subsequently changes the urban-rural wage differential. Changes to the wage differential (as measured by the urban-rural income gap) are predicted to lead to movement between urban and rural areas until a new equilibrium wage is reached.

This dissertation first identifies a …

Indebtedness And Subjective Financial Wellbeing Of Households In Indonesia, Dwini Handayani

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

Indebtedness is an element to foresee household financial wellbeing. This vulnerability could be determined objectively and subjectively. Objective financial vulnerability is the objective ability to make ends meet that is analyzed using household income and characteristics. Measurement in subjective welbeing is determined by household perceptions in their ability to make ends meet. Household behavior with different perceptions will behave differently. Indebtedness is analyzed using the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS) 5 with the Ordinary Least Square method. The inferential shows that both objective and subjective financial wellbeing influence household indebtedness. Kedalaman hutang merupakan elemen untuk mengetahui kesejahteraan finansial rumah tangga. …

Multiple Openings And Competitiveness Of Forward Markets: Experimental Evidence, José Luis Ferreira, Praveen Kujal, Stephen Rassenti

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

We test the competition enhancing effect of selling forward in experimental Cournot duopoly and quadropoly with multiple forward markets. We find that two forward periods yields competitive outcomes and that the results are very close to the predicted theoretical results for quantity setting duopolies and quadropolies. Our experiments lend strong support to the hypothesis that forward markets are competition enhancing. We then test a new market that allows for endogenously determined indefinitely many forward periods that only close when sellers coordinate on selling a zero amount in a forward market. We find that the outcomes under an endogenous close rule …

The Role Of Central Banks In Assisting Regional Economic Policy Making, Randall W. Eberts

Presentations

No abstract provided.

International Trade Effects Of Regional Economic Integration In Africa: The Case Of The Southern African Development Community (Sadc), Mengesha Yayo, Sisay Asefa

International Journal of African Development

Empirical studies on regional economic integration process in Africa exhibit sluggish progress, and there by limited level of intra-trade. The existing literature in Africa, particularly in the Southern African regional integration bloc, has neglected the effects of regional economic integration dealing with disaggregated data. This study analyzes trade creation and diversion effects of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) using disaggregated data. The investigation estimates an augmented gravity model using panel data and random effect estimator methods applying instrumental variables where needed.

The results show that intra-SADC trade is growing in the fuel and minerals and the heavy manufacturing sectors …

Exchange Rate Targeting In The Presence Of Foreign Debt Obligations, James Staveley-O'Carroll, Olena M. Staveley-O'Carroll

Economics Department Working Papers

We study the impact of foreign debt on the trade-off between the three open economy objectives of a central bank - international risk sharing, the need to facilitate expenditure-switching, and the incentive to tilt international prices to lower the labor effort of domestic households - in a two-country DSGE model with incomplete asset markets and deviations from the purchasing power parity. We find that at low debt levels, a Taylor rule outperforms simple targeting rules. However, the central bank can improve welfare by up to 0.25 percent of consumption via an exchange rate peg when debt-to-GDP ratio reaches 100 percent.

The Effects Of Globalization On An Emerging Economy: The Case Of South Africa, Oluwasheyi S. Oladipo

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation examines how globalization influences selected aspects of an emerging economy, using South Africa as a case study. The dissertation consists of three chapters: two microeconomic studies and one macroeconomic paper on the effects of globalization on some of the factors affecting economic growth. One micro paper explores the impacts of openness on inequality (Chapter 1), another investigates the impacts of trade liberalization on manufacturing sector wages (Chapter 2), and the macro study, which is the final chapter, examines the effects of inflation targeting on exchange rate pass through to domestic prices (Chapter 3).

In 1994, apartheid ended in …

A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (Dsge) Model Of Exchange Rate Pass-Through To Domestic Prices In Nigeria, M. A. Adebiyi Dr, C. N. Mordi Dr

CBN Occasional Papers

This paper employed a Bayesian framework of DSGE model to estimate the pass-through effect of exchange rate to domestic inflation in Nigeria, using quarterly data for the period 1990 to 2011. The response of inflation rate to exchange rate shocks was found to be positive and statistically significant in the short-run. The pass-through was small and incomplete with almost zero in quarter 1 (0.09), rose to 0.18 in quarter 2 and declined to 0.07 and 0.01 in quarters 3 and 4, respectively. These findings were lower than those obtained elsewhere by other authors. The low pass-through reported in this study …

Development Of Utility Theory And Utility Paradoxes, Timothy E. Dahlstrom

Lawrence University Honors Projects

Since the pioneering work of von Neumann and Morgenstern in 1944 there have been many developments in Expected Utility theory. In order to explain decision making behavior economists have created increasingly broad and complex models of utility theory. This paper seeks to describe various utility models, how they model choices among ambiguous and lottery type situations, and how they respond to the Ellsberg and Allais paradoxes. This paper also attempts to communicate the historical development of utility models and provide a fresh perspective on the development of utility models.

Financial Openness And Trade Volatility In Argentina, Joseph H. Asciuto

Master's Theses

This paper will identify the relationship between financial openness and trade volatility in Argentina. Data spanning 1970-2011 provided by the IMF, WTO, and INDEC will be used to construct a panel dataset for both a global analysis and a sectoral analysis for the Argentine economy. The application of established and accepted techniques to the constructed dataset will show a negative correlation between trade volatility and financial openness; thus, financial openness acts as a stabilizing mechanism for trade. Additional analysis will be performed on the of role regional trade agreements as stabilization mechanisms for trade. A significant implication of this study …

The Investment Casualties Of War: Global Impacts Of Armed Conflict On Foreign Direct Investment Inflows, Reinhard J. Cate Mr.

Master's Theses

Abstract: Involvement in the outbreak of an armed conflict can present a variety of potential risks to an involved nation’s economy. In this paper I examine if one one of those risks, specifically that a new war could scare away foreign investment actually occurs and whether the intensity of the conflict increases or lessens the potential impact. Using ordinary least squares on panel data from 1966 to 2015, I examine the short and long term impacts of armed conflict on global foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows using two measures of conflict intensity: Large conflicts or ‘wars’, with 1000 or more …

Geospatial Modeling Of Vietnamese Fdi, Cuong Nguyen Tien

Theses and Dissertations

This thesis sets a goal to analyze and project geographically disaggregated measures of FDI using aggregate data. We regress the country level FDI with aggregate, fine geospatial data on GDP, urban extent, and risk. By disaggregating the model, we will predict the FDI flow in every 1000 square kilometer area.

The Impact Of Market Perception On Sovereign Default Risk In The European Union, Keith Pendergrast

Senior Honors Projects, 2010-2019

The recent debt crisis in the European Union has resulted in the differential treatment of Greece’s debt due in large part to market perception. This is evident in the large differences in credit default swap spreads between Greece and other periphery countries in Europe. The goal of this thesis is to explore the differential treatment, and determine the magnitude of this difference. In order to do this, a fixed effect regression is implemented to first determine that a difference exists. Then, a perception index is created in order to determine the magnitude of the market perception. Using these methods we …

From The Classical School To Today: The Evolution Of Stagnation Theories, Francis J. Lukacovic Ii

Applied Economics Theses

The purpose of this thesis is to study the theory of secular stagnation, which was made famous by the American Keynesian economist Alvin Hansen in his book Full Recovery or Stagnation. The theory of secular stagnation has reappeared in economic circles today due to recent economic conditions since the financial crisis of 2007-2008. The thesis will analyze the history of the stagnation theory dating back to Classical economists in the 19^th century. The concept of a stagnating economy has been talked about for centuries with many economists adding important thoughts. Furthermore, the thesis will address the current questions and …

Energy Price Shocks And External Balances, Bao Tan Huynh

Research Collection School Of Economics

This paper studies the impact of a wide set of energy price shocks on exter- nal balances using a two-country framework comprising multiple sectors and en- dogenous energy production with convex costs. The paper disentangles different demand and supply shocks in the energy market through their distinct impact on external balances. It provides a theoretical confirmation of Kilian et al. (2009) and a theoretical foundation to the determining role of the non-energy trade balance in the transmission of energy price shocks. The presence of durables also highlights the immediate channel through which energy prices impact the non-energy trade balance.

Financial Integration In Asean-5, Laura Grace Gabriella, Revathy Suryanarayana, Vania Esady

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

The financial integration in South East Asia has varied over time. This paper focuses on three periods: before, during, and after the global financial crisis in 2008. This paper finds that ASEAN-5 countries have indeed taken a step towards financial integration. While we do not observe any (cointegrating) long-run relationships between the ASEAN-5 countries, we find that there has been a significant increase in the volatility spillovers between them. This is particularly true in the recovery period following the global financial crisis.

Determination Of Competition Conventional Bank In Banking Industry In Indonesia, Ciplis Gema Qori'ah

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

The aim of this study is to determine the level of concentration and competition behavior of conventional commercial banks in the national banking industry. This study focuses on descriptive analysis and quantitative analysis using panel data regression for 9 conventional commercial banks during 2003-2014. Results of eclectic analysis are supposed that behavior of banks is less competitive due to high levels of concentration in the banking industry. While the results of panel data regression show that the variables of bank interest expense, operating expense, other operating incomes and variable of loanable funds significantly affect the income of conventional banks.

What Are The Challenges In Designing An Effective Personal Income Tax System?, Raeni Raeni

Economics and Finance in Indonesia

This article aims to examine the challenges of designing individual's income tax systems in general and particularly to observe taxpayers behaviour in developing countries. This study used case study approach to gain in depth understanding type of taxpayers attitude towards personal income tax systems. Based on the analyses, tax behaviour, which comprises the perception of fairness and motivation to comply, attracts urgent challenges in designing effective tax on personal income in every country and mainly underdeveloped countries. Every human being in each country has their social pattern towards tax policy. When the individual perception of fairness is significant, it will …

The Distribution Of Globalized Power, Rachel Canter

Best Integrated Writing

Canter reviews Thomas Friedman’s The Lexus and the Olive Tree and observes the dissonance between our notions of globalization and global society; she offers an alternate worldview that pays respect to regional cultures and values.