Economic Theory Commons^™

Growth References For Tsimane Forager-Horticulturalists Of The Bolivian Amazon, Aaron D. Blackwell, Samuel S. Urlacher, Bret Beheim, Christopher Von Rueden, Adrian V. Jaeggi, Jonathan Stieglitz, Benjamin C. Trumble, Michael Gurven, Hillard Kaplan

ESI Publications

Objectives—Growth standards and references currently used to assess population and individual health are derived primarily from urban populations, including few individuals from indigenous or subsistence groups. Given environmental and genetic differences, growth may vary in these populations. Thus, there is a need to assess whether international standards are appropriate for all populations, and to produce population specific references if growth differs. Here we present and assess growth references for the Tsimane, an indigenous population of Bolivian forager-horticulturalists.

Methods—Mixed cross-sectional/longitudinal anthropometrics (9,614 individuals; 30,118 observations; ages 0–29 years) were used to generate centile curves and Lambda-Mu-Sigma (LMS) tables for …

Salivary Microbiomes Of Indigenous Tsimane Mothers And Infants Are Distinct Despite Frequent Premastication, Cliff S. Han, Melanie Ann Martin, Armand E.K. Dichosa, Ashlynn R. Daughton, Seth Frietze, Hillard Kaplan, Michael D. Gurven, Joe Alcock

ESI Publications

Background. Premastication, the transfer of pre-chewed food, is a common infant and young child feeding practice among the Tsimane, forager-horticulturalists living in the Bolivian Amazon. Research conducted primarily with Western populations has shown that infants harbor distinct oral microbiota from their mothers. Premastication, which is less common in these populations, may influence the colonization and maturation of infant oral microbiota, including via transmission of oral pathogens. We collected premasticated food and saliva samples from Tsimane mothers and infants (9-24 months of age) to test for evidence of bacterial transmission in premasticated foods and overlap in maternal and infant salivary …

Economic Analysis With Systematically Biased Agents, Mark Schneider

ESI Working Papers

A tenet of behavioral economics is that biases are systematic and should have visible effects in economic applications. Expected utility maximization has been widely applied in economic analysis, but progress has been slower incorporating 'systematically biased' agents into applications involving risk. This contrasts with the widespread application of present-biased preferences in intertemporal settings. To address this gap, we advocate a model of quasi-rank dependent probability weighting as a natural analog to quasi-hyperbolic discounting for decisions under risk. The model satisfies stochastic dominance and transitivity and transforms individual rather than cumulative probabilities. We illustrate the model’s tractability in several economic applications.

Breaking Bad In Bourbon Country: Does Alcohol Prohibition Encourage Methamphetamine Production?, Jose Fernandez, Stephan Gohmann, Joshua C. Pinkston

Faculty and Staff Scholarship

This paper examines the influence of local alcohol prohibition on the prevalence of methamphetamine labs. Using multiple sources of data for counties in Kentucky, we compare various measures of meth manufacturing in wet, moist, and dry counties. Our preferred estimates address the endogeneity of local alcohol policies by exploiting differences in counties’ religious compositions between the 1930s, when most local-option votes took place, and recent years. Even controlling for current religious affiliations, religious composition following the end of national Prohibition strongly predicts current alcohol restrictions. We carefully examine the validity of our identifying assumptions, and consider identification under alternative assumptions. …

The Pros And Cons Of Workplace Tournaments, Roman M. Sheremeta

ESI Working Papers

Tournaments are commonly used in the workplace to determine promotion, assign bonuses, and motivate personal development. Tournament-based contracts can be very effective in eliciting high effort, often outperforming other compensation contracts, but they can also have negative consequences for both managers and workers. The benefits and disadvantages of workplace tournaments have been identified in theoretical, empirical, and experimental research over the past several decades. Based on these findings, I provide suggestions and guidelines for when it might be beneficial to use tournaments in the workplace.

Angels And Demons: Using Behavioral Types In A Real-Effort Moral Dilemma To Identify Expert Traits, Hernan Bejarano, Ellen P. Green, Stephen Rassenti

ESI Publications

In this article, we explore how independently reported measures of subjects' cognitive capabilities, preferences, and sociodemographic characteristics relate to their behavior in a real-effort moral dilemma experiment. To do this, we use a unique dataset, the Chapman Preferences and Characteristics Instrument Set (CPCIS), which contains over 30 standardized measures of preferences and characteristics. We find that simple correlation analysis provides an incomplete picture of how individual measures relate to behavior. In contrast, clustering subjects into groups based on observed behavior in the real-effort task reveals important systematic differences in individual characteristics across groups. However, while we find more differences, these …

Does Price Efficiency Increase With Trading Volume? Evidence Of Nonlinearity And Power Laws In Etfs, Gunduz Caginalp, Mark Desantis

Economics Faculty Articles and Research

Whether efficiency increases with increasing volume is an important issue that may illuminate trader strategies and distinguish between market theories. This relationship is tested using 124,236 daily observations comprising 68 large and liquid U.S. equity exchange traded funds (ETFs). ETFs have the advantage that efficiency can be measured in terms of the deviation between the trading price and the underlying net asset value that is reported each day. Our findings support the hypothesis that the relationship between volume and efficiency is nonlinear. Indeed, efficiency increases as volume increases from low to moderately high levels, but then decreases as volume increases …

Federal Home Loan Bank Advances And Bank And Thrift Holding Company Risk: Evidence From The Stock Market, Scott Deacle, Elyas Elyasiani

Business and Economics Faculty Publications

Using bivariate GARCH models of stock portfolio returns and risk, we find that bank and thrift holding companies that relied the most on Federal Home Loan Bank (FHLB) advances exhibited less total risk and market risk than those that relied on them the least between 2001 and 2012. When we control for differences in holding company size, stock trading volume, residential mortgage lending, and holding company type (bank vs. thrift), the most FHLB-reliant holding companies sustain the aforesaid risk advantages except during the crisis of 2007–2009, when they exhibit greater idiosyncratic risk. The latter finding suggests that investors perceived the …

Conflict Or Congruence? Maternal And Infant-Centric Factors Associated With Shorter Exclusive Breastfeeding Durations Among The Tsimane, Melanie A. Martin, Geni Garcia, Hillard Kaplan, Michael Gurven

ESI Publications

No abstract provided.

On The Robustness Of Higher Order Risk Preferences, Cary Deck, Harris Schlesinger

ESI Working Papers

Economists have begun to recognize the role that higher order risk preferences play in a variety of settings. As such, several experiments have documented the degree of prudence, temperance, and to a lesser extent, edginess and bentness that laboratory subjects exhibit. More recently, researchers have argued that higher order risk preferences generally conform to mixed risk averse and mixed risk loving patterns that arise from a preference for disaggregating or aggregating harms, respectively. This paper examines the robustness of this pattern in three ways. First, it attempts to directly replicate previous results with compound lotteries over monetary outcomes. Second, it …

Cardiovascular Disease And Type 2 Diabetes In Evolutionary Perspective: A Critical Role For Helminths?, Michael D. Gurven, Benjamin C. Trumble, Jonathan Stieglitz, Aaron D. Blackwell, David E. Michalik, Caleb E. Finch, Hillard Kaplan

ESI Publications

Heart disease and type 2 diabetes are commonly believed to be rare among contemporary subsistencelevel human populations, and by extension prehistoric populations. Although some caveats remain, evidence shows these diseases to be unusual among well-studied hunter-gatherers and other subsistence populations with minimal access to healthcare. Here we expand on a relatively new proposal for why these and other populations may not show major signs of these diseases. Chronic infections, especially helminths, may offer protection against heart disease and diabetes through direct and indirect pathways. As part of a strategy to insure their own survival and reproduction, helminths exert multiple cardio-protective …

Dual Process Utility Theory: A Model Of Decisions Under Risk And Over Time, Mark Schneider

ESI Working Papers

The Discounted Expected Utility model has been a major workhorse for analyzing individual behavior for over half a century. However, it cannot account for evidence that risk interacts with time preference, that time interacts with risk preference, that many people are averse to timing risk and do not discount the future exponentially, that discounting depends on the magnitude of outcomes, that risk preferences are not time preferences, and that risk and time preferences are correlated with cognitive ability. Here we address these issues in a decision model based on the interaction of an affective and a reflective valuation process. The …

Multi-Battle Contests: An Experimental Study, Shakun D. Mago, Roman M. Sheremeta

ESI Working Papers

We examine behavior of subjects in simultaneous and sequential multi-battle contests, where each individual battle is modeled as an all-pay auction with complete information. In simultaneous best-of-three contests, subjects are predicted to make positive bids in all three battles, but we find that subjects often make positive bids in only two battles. In sequential contests, theory predicts sizable bids in the first battle and no bids in the subsequent battles. Contrary to this prediction, subjects significantly underbid in the first battle and overbid in subsequent battles. Consequently, instead of always ending in the second battle, contests often proceeds to the …

An Experimental Investigation Of Simultaneous Multi-Battle Contests With Complementarities, Cary Deck, Sudipta Sarangi, Matt Wiser

ESI Publications

This paper reports the results of laboratory experiments that are designed to test theoretical predictions in a multi-battle contest with value complementarities among the battles. The specific setting is a game of Hex where control of each region is determined by a Tullock contest and the overall winner is determined by the combination of claimed regions. We find that in a game with only a few regions, aggregate behavior across regions is largely consistent with the theoretical predictions. However, examining individual level behavior suggests that bidders are not behaving in accordance with the model, but often pursue specific winning combinations. …

Impulsive Behavior In Competition: Testing Theories Of Overbidding In Rent-Seeking Contests, Roman M. Sheremeta

ESI Working Papers

Researchers have proposed various theories to explain overbidding in rent-seeking contents, including mistakes, systematic biases, the utility of winning, and relative payoff maximization. Through an eight-part experiment, we test and find significant support for the existing theories. Also, we discover some new explanations based on cognitive ability and impulsive behavior. Out of all explanations examined, we find that impulsivity is the most important factor explaining overbidding in contests.

University Rankings: Evidence And A Conceptual Framework, Jonathan G.S. Koppell, Jacob Fowles, H. George Frederickson

Publications from President Jonathan G.S. Koppell

University ranking has high public visibility, the ranking business has flourished, and institutions of higher education have not been able to ignore it. This study of university ranking presents general considerations of ranking and institutional responses to it, particularly considering reactions to ranking, ranking as a self-fulfilling prophecy, and ranking as a means of transforming qualities into quantities. The authors present a conceptual framework of university ranking based on three propositions and carry out a descriptive statistical analysis of U.S. and international ranking data to evaluate those propositions. The first proposition of university ranking is that ranking systems are demarcated …

Associationistic Luce Rule, Jiangtao Li, Rui Tang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We develop an extension of Luce’s random choice model that incorporates a role forthe association of alternatives. Each alternative is characterized by a salience value, aLuce value, and its associated alternatives. The salience value captures the alternative’sability to attract the decision maker’s attention, and the Luce value measures thealternative’s desirability. The decision maker is first attracted by some alternativeaccording to a salience-based Luce-type formula, and then chooses among its associatedalternatives according to another desirability-based Luce-type formula. While retainingthe simplicity of the Luce rule, the theory accommodates some well-known behavioralphenomena in individual choice, such as the attraction effect (violations of regularity),and …

Endogenous Market Formation And Monetary Trade: An Experiment, Gabriele Camera, Dror Goldberg, Avi Weiss

ESI Working Papers

The theory of money assumes decentralized bilateral exchange and excludes centralized multilateral exchange. However, endogenizing the exchange process is critical for understanding the conditions that support the use of money. We develop a “travelling game” to study the spontaneous emergence of decentralized and centralized exchange, theoretically and experimentally. Players located on separate “islands” can either trade locally, or pay a cost to trade elsewhere, so decentralized and centralized markets can both emerge in equilibrium. The latter maximize trade meetings and are socially efficient; the former minimize trade costs through the use of money. In the laboratory, centralized exchange more frequently …

Do Economic Inequalities Affect Long-Run Cooperation?, Gabriele Camera, Cary Deck, David Porter

ESI Working Papers

Does inequality affect a group’s cohesion and ability to prosper? Participants in laboratory economies played an indefinite sequence of helping games in random, anonymous pairs. A coin flip determined donor and recipient roles in each pair. This random shock ensured equality of opportunity but not of results, because earnings depended on realized shocks. We manipulated the ability to condition choices on this uncontrollable inequality source. In all treatments, uncertain ending supports multiple Pareto-ranked equilibria, including full cooperation. Theoretically, inequalities do not alter the incentives’ structure. Empirically, inequality disclosures altered conduct, weakened norms of mutual support and reduced efficiency.

Focality And Asymmetry In Multi-Battle Contests, Subhashish M. Chowdhury, Dan Kovenock, David Rojo Arjona, Nathaniel Wilcox

ESI Working Papers

This article examines behavior in two-person constant-sum Colonel Blotto games in which each player maximizes the expected total value of the battlefields won. A lottery contest success function is employed in each battlefield. Recent experimental research on such games provides only partial support for Nash equilibrium behavior. We hypothesize that the salience of battlefields affects strategic behavior (the salient target hypothesis). We present a controlled test of this hypothesis – against Nash predictions – when the sources of salience come from certain asymmetries in either battlefield values or labels (as in Schelling (1960)). In both cases, subjects over-allocate the resource …