Econometrics Commons^™

House Prices And Affordability, R. Greenaway-Mcgrevy, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

The decade following the global financial crisis (GFC) has witnessed rampant house price appreciation in many cities of the developed world. The metropolitan centres of New Zealand showcase this phenomenon with house price appreciation persistently outpacing income growth. In Auckland, the ratio of prevailing median house prices to median household income rose from 6.4 in 2010 to 10.0 in 2016 (Demographia, Citation2011, Citation2017), before declining to 8.6 by 2019 as house prices flat-lined while household incomes increased (Demographia, Citation2020). However, a strong resurgence in house prices during 2020 means that this ratio has resumed its upward trajectory, with an increase …

Volatility Spillover Between Stock Market And Currency Market Of Pakistan In The Presence Of Structural Breaks, Muhammad Jamil, Hifsa Mobeen

Business Review

This study examines the volatility transmission between the currency market and the stock market of Pakistan in the presence of structural breaks. For this purpose, daily data from the stock market and currency market is analyzed. An empirical investigation is conducted using the bivariate EGARCH model and the test for multiple structural breaks developed by Bai and Perron (2003). This study analyses these markets with the inclusion of sudden changes. Results of the EGARCH model suggest that volatility spillover is positive and bidirectional between these markets of Pakistan.

Explaining International Donor Rates: The Effects Of Policy-Based Incentives, Elizabeth Laverty-Smith

Honors Theses

Chronic kidney failure is a global health issue that can often require a kidney donation. The supply of available kidneys, however, is limited, leading to a massive international kidney shortage that is growing rapidly each year. In responding to these shortages, perhaps, several countries have implemented policies that incentivize living kidney donation. Estimating the impact of these incentive policies on living kidney donations is important if we are to understand this global health crisis. Although previous studies have discovered a correlation between the incentivizing policies and living kidney donations, there has been little attempt made to control for confounding variables. …

Profit Efficiency Analysis Of Cassava Production In Enugu State, Nigeria, Oguejiofor J. Okorie, Ubokudom E. Okon, Anselm A. Enete

Journal for the Advancement of Developing Economies

This study analyzed the profit efficiency of smallholder cassava farmers in Enugu state, Nigeria. The study employed a multi-stage random sampling technique in selecting 240 cassava farm households who are registered in the Enugu State Fadama III project during the 2019 farming season. Data were collected using copies of structured questionnaire and interview schedule. Collected data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics (stochastic frontier profit function model). Results showed that the majority (73.3%) of the household heads were male, with a mean age of 52 years. Additionally, the majority (78.5%) of the respondents were married, mean farm size of …

Export Promotion As A Development Strategy: Evidence From Selected Southeast Asian Countries And Lessons For Ghana, Ohenewaa B. Newman

Journal for the Advancement of Developing Economies

Developing countries have adopted various development strategies such as import substitution industrialization (ISI) and export promotion strategies. For Latin-American and developing countries, some level of economic growth was experienced using ISI after the Second World War. However, these countries could not attain the needed economic growth, technological advancement or guarantee food security with the adoption of ISI. It led to unequal income distribution, less internal competition, and distortions of their economy, among others. The rise of export promotion strategies in the 1970s was evidenced by an impressive economic growth and a decline in poverty in jurisdictions like Taiwan, Tanzania and …

The Effects Of Tax Policies On Entrepreneurship In Emerging Versus Mature Economies: Do Differences Exist Between Nascent And Established Firms?, Benjamin B. Boozer, Taleah H. Collum

Journal for the Advancement of Developing Economies

An extensive body of research defines various levels of entrepreneurship and considers emerging trends. This study uses data from Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) in developing a model that measures the impact of taxes and bureaucracy on entrepreneurship. The analysis considers effects by type of firm – nascent and established – and type of economy – emerging and mature. The aim of the manuscript is to test directional impact of tax policies on entrepreneurial activity. The model utilizes counter and dichotomous variables to measure effects before, during, and after the 2008-2009 Financial Crisis. Tax policies adversely impact both nascent and established …

Protecting Life And Lung: Protected Areas Affect Fine Particulate Matter And Respiratory Hospitalizations In The Brazilian Amazon Biome., Derek Michael Sheehan

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

I assessed the impacts of upwind protected area coverage on local respiratory health within the Brazilian Amazon. A hypothesized mechanism is the legal prohibition of human ignited fires within protected areas, reducing particulate matter pollution, impacting respiratory health downwind. The connection between fires and respiratory diseases in the Amazon is well established (Smith et al. 2014; Rangel and Vogl 2019; Rocha and Sant’anna 2020). What is not well understood is the potential that government policies aimed at preventing ecosystem loss may also promote health and wellbeing, combining the UN sustainable development goals 3 and 15. Protected areas currently dominate government …

The Effects Of Imf's Lending And Conditionalities On Economic Growth: Case Of Sadc Countries, Lutete Celina Carlos

Masters Theses

I examine the impact of IMF credit use and its conditions on economic growth performance in 12 South African countries over a period of 1999-2019. The work adopts an empirical and quantitative approach to analyzing the relationship between the GDP per Capita, the use of IMF Credit, Government Final Consumption Expenditure, Net Domestic Credit and Current Account balance. These variables are the most recommended in the IMF conditionalities during the lending arrangements with SADC members. The study uses Fixed-effect approach to evaluate how the use of IMF program and the conditions imposed directly affects economic growth. A dummy variable is …

Matrix Aggregation, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

Matrix aggregation — folder cover sheet bearing introductory handwritten notes and a reading list, an unpublished manuscript by Anwar Shaikh, PhD, dated February 8, 2010.

Shaikh, A. (2010, February 8). Matrix aggregation [Unpublished manuscript].

Notes on N. Pani's seminar, "Volatility of power in India's distance dualism" — an unpublished manuscript by Anwar Shaikh, PhD, dated November 10, 2020.

Shaikh, A. (2020, November 10). Notes on N. Pani's seminar, "Volatility of power in India's distance dualism" [Unpublished manuscript].

Disaggregation: Working notes — an unpublished manuscript by Anwar Shaikh, PhD, dated 2021.

Shaikh, A. (2021). Disaggregation: Working notes [Unpublished …

An Evaluation Of Knot Placement Strategies For Spline Regression, William Klein

CMC Senior Theses

Regression splines have an established value for producing quality fit at a relatively low-degree polynomial. This paper explores the implications of adopting new methods for knot selection in tandem with established methodology from the current literature. Structural features of generated datasets, as well as residuals collected from sequential iterative models are used to augment the equidistant knot selection process. From analyzing a simulated dataset and an application onto the Racial Animus dataset, I find that a B-spline basis paired with equally-spaced knots remains the best choice when data are evenly distributed, even when structural features of a dataset are known …

Determinants Of Housing Supply Expansion In The Western United States, Nathaniel Tolles

CMC Senior Theses

New residential construction is an important indicator of economic health. Previous empirical work demonstrates the profound power of housing starts in forecasting recession. Theoretical research, backed by empirical study, suggests that home prices and interest rates are closely related to the amount of residential investment. This paper attempts to better understand the complex relationship between various factors that influence the supply and demand of new housing; what information do suppliers and regulators use to determine how many new units of housing will be constructed? Specifically, we will look at the respective state housing markets of California, Oregon, and Washington by …

Neither “Post-War” Nor Post-Pregnancy Paranoia: How America’S War On Drugs Continues To Perpetuate Disparate Incarceration Outcomes For Pregnant, Substance-Involved Offenders, Becca S. Zimmerman

Pitzer Senior Theses

This thesis investigates the unique interactions between pregnancy, substance involvement, and race as they relate to the War on Drugs and the hyper-incarceration of women. Using ordinary least square regression analyses and data from the Bureau of Justice Statistics’ 2016 Survey of Prison Inmates, I examine if (and how) pregnancy status, drug use, race, and their interactions influence two length of incarceration outcomes: sentence length and amount of time spent in jail between arrest and imprisonment. The results collectively indicate that pregnancy decreases length of incarceration outcomes for those offenders who are not substance-involved but not evenhandedly -- benefitting white …

Feature Investigation For Stock Returns Prediction Using Xgboost And Deep Learning Sentiment Classification, Seungho (Samuel) Lee

CMC Senior Theses

This paper attempts to quantify predictive power of social media sentiment and financial data in stock prediction by utilizing a comprehensive set of stock-related fundamental and technical variables and social media sentiments. For conducting sentiment analysis, this study employs a pretrained finBERT model that provides three different sentiment classifications and respective softmax scores. Hence, the significance of these variables is evaluated with XGBoost regression and Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) frameworks. Through investigating feature importance, this study finds that statistical properties of sentiment variables provide a stronger predictive power than a weighted sentiment score and that it is possible to quantify …

The Determination Of The Factors Affecting Air Transportation Passenger Numbers, Tüzün Tolga İnan Asst. Prof. Dr.

International Journal of Aviation, Aeronautics, and Aerospace

So long as human beings are required to go between places, the civil aviation industry will always exist. In this study, a country-based examination has been applied to air passenger numbers. 50 countries are selected according to the highest rating of air transportation passenger numbers, gross domestic product (GDP), total population, and human development index (HDI) data. 28 of these countries are included in the analysis which is common in at least three of these rankings. The relationship between the four parameters is examined via correlation analysis. Thereafter, the related parameters were taken as independent variables in multiple linear regression …

A Time Series Analysis Of Determinants Of Pce Inflation In The United States, Elliot Charron

Empirical Economic Bulletin, An Undergraduate Journal

This paper investigates the factors contributing to the PCE inflation rate in the United States. The study incorporates economic determinants in a time series analysis to examine the influence of economic variables on the PCE Inflation rate in the United States. The economic variables include the unemployment rate, wages, inflation expectations, the federal funds rate, the money supply, import prices, and the labor force participation rate. The ADF unit root test shows that the first difference is stationary while the Johansen test of cointegration shows that there is cointegration of 7 and that a vector error correction model (VECM) must …

Consumer Preferences Of Solar Systems In Boston And Atlanta: A Choice Experiment, Sam Mabile

Honors Theses and Capstones

Creating a cleaner energy grid has become a hot topic over the past 20 years, as the effects of fossil fuels on our planet has become clearer. The solar market in the US has exploded over the past 10 years, with an average annual growth rate of about 42% (Solar Industry Research Data, 2020). Choice experiments are often conducted to better understand consumers preferences towards products or characteristics of products. In this study, data of a choice experiment in a survey of residents in Boston and Atlanta regarding preferences for attributes of household solar energy collecting system are …

Ways Forward In Energy Markets And The Environment, Jacob Nelson

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

Renewable energy sources have come to the forefront of energy production policy over the last twenty years. Studies of external and direct costs of both renewable and nonrenewable energy sources have contributed to growing understandings of ways in which these energy sources can be compared in a monetary context. Using data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) alongside international data from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) among other sources, we have developed forecasts for the future costs, both direct and social, of each energy source as well as a difference-in-difference experiment to determine potential effects of state-level energy …

The Effect Of Low Skill Job Opportunities On Postsecondary Enrollment, Mallory Radesic

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

This research examines the effect that low skill job opportunities have on the probability of enrollment in postsecondary institutions between men and women, namely the construction and manufacturing industries. The research is based on the human capital investment theory, which states that individuals will enroll in postsecondary institutions when the perceived benefits outweigh the costs. More job opportunity heightens the opportunity cost of enrollment, hence lowering the probability of enrollment. After running a probit model, there is evidence that enrollment is countercyclical and that enrollment decisions do not vary significantly between men and women. I find that a 1 percent …

The Influence Of Wildland Urban Interface Areas On Resource Assignments To Large Wildland Fires, Kurt Swimley

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

We examine the relationship between U.S. wildfire resource assignments and fire proximity to inhabited areas. Climate change and previous vegetation buildup have enabled more severe fire seasons, while more structures are being developed near vegetated, wildland areas. These changes have contributed to a steep increase in the overall cost of wildfire management, the annual costs of which regularly rise into the billions (NIFC, 2021). Still, the extent to which each driver of suppression costs contributes to the increase in spending is not entirely understood. Previous studies have shown that more suppression resources are allocated to fires near inhabited areas, …

Culture, Institutions & The Long Divergence, Alberto Bisin, Jared Rubin, Avner Seror, Thierry Verdier

ESI Working Papers

During the medieval and early modern periods the Middle East lost its economic advantage relative to the West. Recent explanations of this historical phenomenon— called the Long Divergence—focus on these regions’ distinct political economy choices regarding religious legitimacy and limited governance. We study these features in a political economy model of the interactions between rulers, secular and clerical elites, and civil society. The model induces a joint evolution of culture and political institutions converging to one of two distinct stationary states: a religious and a secular regime. We then map qualitatively parameters and initial conditions characterizing the West and …