Econometrics Commons^™

Ways Forward In Energy Markets And The Environment, Jacob Nelson

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

Renewable energy sources have come to the forefront of energy production policy over the last twenty years. Studies of external and direct costs of both renewable and nonrenewable energy sources have contributed to growing understandings of ways in which these energy sources can be compared in a monetary context. Using data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) alongside international data from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) among other sources, we have developed forecasts for the future costs, both direct and social, of each energy source as well as a difference-in-difference experiment to determine potential effects of state-level energy …

The Effect Of Low Skill Job Opportunities On Postsecondary Enrollment, Mallory Radesic

Williams Honors College, Honors Research Projects

This research examines the effect that low skill job opportunities have on the probability of enrollment in postsecondary institutions between men and women, namely the construction and manufacturing industries. The research is based on the human capital investment theory, which states that individuals will enroll in postsecondary institutions when the perceived benefits outweigh the costs. More job opportunity heightens the opportunity cost of enrollment, hence lowering the probability of enrollment. After running a probit model, there is evidence that enrollment is countercyclical and that enrollment decisions do not vary significantly between men and women. I find that a 1 percent …

Feature Investigation For Stock Returns Prediction Using Xgboost And Deep Learning Sentiment Classification, Seungho (Samuel) Lee

CMC Senior Theses

This paper attempts to quantify predictive power of social media sentiment and financial data in stock prediction by utilizing a comprehensive set of stock-related fundamental and technical variables and social media sentiments. For conducting sentiment analysis, this study employs a pretrained finBERT model that provides three different sentiment classifications and respective softmax scores. Hence, the significance of these variables is evaluated with XGBoost regression and Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) frameworks. Through investigating feature importance, this study finds that statistical properties of sentiment variables provide a stronger predictive power than a weighted sentiment score and that it is possible to quantify …

An Evaluation Of Knot Placement Strategies For Spline Regression, William Klein

CMC Senior Theses

Regression splines have an established value for producing quality fit at a relatively low-degree polynomial. This paper explores the implications of adopting new methods for knot selection in tandem with established methodology from the current literature. Structural features of generated datasets, as well as residuals collected from sequential iterative models are used to augment the equidistant knot selection process. From analyzing a simulated dataset and an application onto the Racial Animus dataset, I find that a B-spline basis paired with equally-spaced knots remains the best choice when data are evenly distributed, even when structural features of a dataset are known …

Determinants Of Housing Supply Expansion In The Western United States, Nathaniel Tolles

CMC Senior Theses

New residential construction is an important indicator of economic health. Previous empirical work demonstrates the profound power of housing starts in forecasting recession. Theoretical research, backed by empirical study, suggests that home prices and interest rates are closely related to the amount of residential investment. This paper attempts to better understand the complex relationship between various factors that influence the supply and demand of new housing; what information do suppliers and regulators use to determine how many new units of housing will be constructed? Specifically, we will look at the respective state housing markets of California, Oregon, and Washington by …

Volatility Spillover Between Stock Market And Currency Market Of Pakistan In The Presence Of Structural Breaks, Muhammad Jamil, Hifsa Mobeen

Business Review

This study examines the volatility transmission between the currency market and the stock market of Pakistan in the presence of structural breaks. For this purpose, daily data from the stock market and currency market is analyzed. An empirical investigation is conducted using the bivariate EGARCH model and the test for multiple structural breaks developed by Bai and Perron (2003). This study analyses these markets with the inclusion of sudden changes. Results of the EGARCH model suggest that volatility spillover is positive and bidirectional between these markets of Pakistan.

Three Essays On “Energy , Environment, And Developmental Economics”, Bolarinwa Ajanaku

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

This dissertation examines topics related to renewable energy development and investment planning, energy markets, environment degradation and economic development. The substantial ecological costs of deforestation are well known and considered globally important due to biodiversity loss, land degradation, soil erosion, and contributions to climate change. The first essay focuses upon understanding the tradeoff between development and deforestation in Africa. In the second essay, spatial analysis and Geographic Information System (GIS) are applied to determine potential locations for wind farms development in the state of West Virginia. Lastly, the third essay examines the role of wind power penetration on wholesale electricity …

Three Essays In Applied Urban Economics, Alexander Cardazzi

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

The first chapter examines the effect of policing strategies on housing prices. Crime has been shown to negatively affect housing values. However, there is not much empirical evidence documenting the amenity value of how people are policed. Stop & Frisk was a particularly salient policing tactic employed in New York City until a judge ruled it to be unconstitutional. This chapter uses exogenous variation in Stop & Frisk behavior resulting from landmark events in a federal class action lawsuit as well as exposure to Operation Impact, a high intensity policing strategy, to explain variation in property sales. Results indicate a …

House Prices And Affordability, R. Greenaway-Mcgrevy, Peter C. B. Phillips

Research Collection School Of Economics

The decade following the global financial crisis (GFC) has witnessed rampant house price appreciation in many cities of the developed world. The metropolitan centres of New Zealand showcase this phenomenon with house price appreciation persistently outpacing income growth. In Auckland, the ratio of prevailing median house prices to median household income rose from 6.4 in 2010 to 10.0 in 2016 (Demographia, Citation2011, Citation2017), before declining to 8.6 by 2019 as house prices flat-lined while household incomes increased (Demographia, Citation2020). However, a strong resurgence in house prices during 2020 means that this ratio has resumed its upward trajectory, with an increase …

Joint Tests For Dynamic And Spatial Effects In Short Dynamic Panel Data Models With Fixed Effects And Heteroskedasticity, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

Simple and reliable tests are proposed for testing the existence of dynamic and/or spatial effects in fixed-effects panel data models with small T and possibly heteroskedastic errors. The tests are constructed based on the adjusted quasi scores (AQS), which correct the conditional quasi scores given the initial differences to account for the effect of initial values. To improve the finite sample performance, standardized AQS tests are also derived, which are shown to have much improved finite sample properties. All the proposed tests are robust against nonnormality, but some are not robust against cross-sectional heteroskedasticity (CH). A different type of adjustments …

The Influence Of Wildland Urban Interface Areas On Resource Assignments To Large Wildland Fires, Kurt Swimley

Graduate Student Theses, Dissertations, & Professional Papers

We examine the relationship between U.S. wildfire resource assignments and fire proximity to inhabited areas. Climate change and previous vegetation buildup have enabled more severe fire seasons, while more structures are being developed near vegetated, wildland areas. These changes have contributed to a steep increase in the overall cost of wildfire management, the annual costs of which regularly rise into the billions (NIFC, 2021). Still, the extent to which each driver of suppression costs contributes to the increase in spending is not entirely understood. Previous studies have shown that more suppression resources are allocated to fires near inhabited areas, …

Three Essays In Applied Econometrics: Agricultural And Energy Economics, Kuan-Ming Huang

Graduate Theses, Dissertations, and Problem Reports (ETD)

This dissertation examines three empirical issues in energy and agricultural economics using econometrics models whose titles are: 1) Do Natural Hazards in the Gulf Coast Still Matter for State-Level Natural Gas Prices in the US? Evidence After the Shale Gas Boom; 2) Do Exploitations of Marcellus and Utica Shale Formations Improve Regional Economy in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia? A Synthetic Control Analysis; and 3) How Did Covid-19 Impact US Household Food Spending? An Analysis Six Months In.

The first essay assesses the impact of natural hazards on state-level natural gas prices and evaluates the effects of the shale gas …

Price Value Notes, Anwar Shaikh Phd

Archives of Anwar Shaikh

This collection includes:

• Marx's last theorem working notes by Anwar Shaikh (unpublished work) (24-30_Pric... p. 5).
• Near-linearity of wage-profit curves and standard prices: Empirical and theoretical considerations by Anwar Shaikh (unpublished work) (24-30_Pric... p. 31).
• Price with money.xmcd calculation model by Anwar Shaikh (unpublished work) (24-30_Pric... p. 6).
• Shaikh, A. (2021, April 2). Anwar's 404 x 403 vector problem coding matrix log. (Unpublished computer program documentation) (24-30_Pric... p. 3).
• Shaikh, A. (2012, June 19). H matrix in Sraffa & Marx master study notes. (Unpublished manuscript note) (24-30_Pric... p. 30).
• Shaikh, A. (2009, April 10). Marx-Sraffa prices mathematical derivatives …

Culture, Institutions & The Long Divergence, Alberto Bisin, Jared Rubin, Avner Seror, Thierry Verdier

ESI Working Papers

During the medieval and early modern periods the Middle East lost its economic advantage relative to the West. Recent explanations of this historical phenomenon— called the Long Divergence—focus on these regions’ distinct political economy choices regarding religious legitimacy and limited governance. We study these features in a political economy model of the interactions between rulers, secular and clerical elites, and civil society. The model induces a joint evolution of culture and political institutions converging to one of two distinct stationary states: a religious and a secular regime. We then map qualitatively parameters and initial conditions characterizing the West and …

A Simple Measure Of Economic Complexity, Sabiou M. Inoua

ESI Working Papers

Contrary to conventional economic growth theory, which reduces a country’s output to one aggregate variable (GDP), product diversity is central to economic development, as recent, “economic complexity”, research suggests. A country’s product diversity reflects its diversity of knowhow or “capabilities”. Researchers proposed the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) and the country Fitness index to estimate a country’s number of capabilities from international export data; these measures predict economic growth better than conventional variables such as human capital. This paper offers a simpler measure of a country’s knowhow, Log Product Diversity (or LPD, the logarithm of a country’s number of products), which …

Differences In Cognitive Reflection Mediate Gender Differences In Social Preferences, Antonio M. Espín, Valerio Capraro, Brice Corgnet, Simon Gächter, Roberto Hernán-González, Praveen Kujal, Stephen Rassenti

ESI Working Papers

Previous studies have shown that women tend to be more egalitarian and less self-interested than men whereas men tend to be more concerned with social efficiency motives. The roots of such differences, however, remain unknown. Since different cognitive styles have also been associated with different distributional social preferences, we hypothesise that gender differences in social preferences can be partially explained by differences in cognitive styles (i.e., women rely more on intuition whereas men are more reflective). We test this hypothesis meta-analytically using data from seven studies conducted in four countries (USA, Spain, India, and UK; n=6,910) where cognitive reflection and …

Strategically Revealing Intentions In General Lotto Games, Keith Paarporn, Rahul Chandan, Dan Kovenock, Mahnoosh Alizadeh, Jason R. Marden

ESI Working Papers

Strategic decision-making in uncertain and adversarial environments is crucial for the security of modern systems and infrastructures. A salient feature of many optimal decision-making policies is a level of unpredictability, or randomness, which helps to keep an adversary uncertain about the system’s behavior. This paper seeks to explore decision-making policies on the other end of the spectrum – namely, whether there are benefits in revealing one’s strategic intentions to an opponent before engaging in competition.We study these scenarios in a well-studied model of competitive resource allocation problem known as General Lotto games. In the classic formulation, two competing players simultaneously …

The Art Of Concession In General Lotto Games, Rahul Chandan, Keith Paarporn, Dan Kovenock, Mahnoosh Alizadeh, Jason R. Marden

ESI Working Papers

Success in adversarial environments often requires investment into additional resources in order to improve one’s competitive position. But, can intentionally decreasing one’s own competitiveness ever provide strategic benefits in such settings? In this paper, we focus on characterizing the role of “concessions” as a component of strategic decision making. Specifically, we investigate whether a player can gain an advantage by either conceding budgetary resources or conceding valuable prizes to an opponent. While one might na¨ıvely assume that the player cannot, our work demonstrates that – perhaps surprisingly – concessions do offer strategic benefits when made correctly. In the context of …

Do Conditional Cash Transfers Increase School Enrollment? Evidence From Brazil, Jeanette L. Silvernale

Master's Theses

Conditional cash transfer programs have been widely deployed across the globe. They seek to bolster human capital by providing benefits contingent upon a variety of actions such as school attendance and regular health checkups. Bolsa Familia is the most extensive conditional cash transfer program, serving 46 million Brazilian citizens. Despite its expansive size, there have been seldom large-scale micro evaluations of the program. Limited data has resulted in small sample sizes drawn from a single point in time. Our study diverges from the rest and utilizes a novel administrative dataset with an overall sample of nearly 60 million and a …

The Conservatism Principle And Asymmetric Preferences Over Reporting Errors, Jivas Chakravarthy, Timothy W. Shields

ESI Working Papers

At present, accounting conservatism is generally viewed from a measurement or reporting perspective. In contrast, we consider whether it relates to a moral rule of conduct. Conservatism has been described as deriving from a preference for reporting errors to be in the direction of understatement rather than overstatement. We experimentally pair Reporters who provide information with Users who rely on the information. We posit that under misaligned incentives that motivate aggressive reporting, Users view an aggressive report as reflecting Reporters’ exploitative intent and expect that a social norm prohibiting aggressive reporting applies. We predict that Users use noisy reporting errors …