Econometrics Commons^™

In-Fill Asymptotic Theory For Structural Break Point In Autoregression, Liang Jiang, Xiaohu Wang, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

This article obtains the exact distribution of the maximum likelihood estimator of structural break point in the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process when a continuous record is available. The exact distribution is asymmetric, trimodal, dependent on the initial condition. These three properties are also found in the finite sample distribution of the least squares (LS) estimator of structural break point in autoregressive (AR) models. Motivated by these observations, the article then develops an in-fill asymptotic theory for the LS estimator of structural break point in the AR(1) coefficient. The in-fill asymptotic distribution is also asymmetric, tri-modal, dependent on the initial condition, and delivers …

Boosting: Why You Can Use The Hp Filter, Peter C. B. Phillips, Zhentao Shi

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose a procedure of iterating the HP filter to produce a smarter smoothing device, called the boosted HP (bHP) filter, based on L2-boosting in machine learning. Limit theory shows that the bHP filter asymptotically recovers trend mechanisms that involve integrated processes, deterministic drifts, and structural breaks, covering the most common trends that appear in current modeling methodology. A stopping criterion automates the algorithm, giving a data-determined method for data-rich environments. The methodology is illustrated in simulations and with three real data examples that highlight the differences between simple HP filtering, the bHP filter, and an alternative autoregressive approach.

Exploiting A Grading Policy Shift As An Instrument To Estimate Impact Of Grading On Teacher Evaluations, Gavin Johnson

All Graduate Plan B and other Reports, Spring 1920 to Spring 2023

Professors at a university plausibly have an incentive to give higher grades to students, and these higher grades will be reflected in student evaluations, which are used to assess teaching quality, which could have career impacts. This paper takes advantage of a policy shift at the business school at Utah State University that introduced suggested caps on the average course grades that teachers gave. This allowed instrumental variable analysis to correct for bias in OLS estimations of these impacts. The correlation between grades and students' evaluations of teachers was found to be positive suggesting that student evaluations of teachers are …

Trustors’ Disregard For Trustees Deciding Intuitively Or Reflectively: Three Experiments On Time Constraints, Antonio Cabrales, Antonio M. Espín, Praveen Kujal, Stephen Rassenti

ESI Working Papers

Human decisions in the social domain are modulated by the interaction between intuitive and reflective processes. Requiring individuals to decide quickly or slowly triggers these processes and is thus likely to elicit different social behaviors. Meanwhile, time pressure has been associated with inefficiency in market settings and market regulation often requires individuals to delay their decisions via cooling-off periods. Yet, recent research suggests that people who make reflective decisions are met with distrust. If this extends to external time constraints, then forcing individuals to delay their decisions may be counterproductive in scenarios where trust considerations are important. In three Trust …

Modeling The Us Beef Industry’S Response To Covid-19, Owen Michael Fleming

Undergraduate Economic Review

To understand the beef industry’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic, I proposed a three-sector model of the beef supply-chain and estimated it econometrically. Based on their definitions, it is found that panic, stay-at-home procedures, and expectations are not significant explanatory variables. However, there is strong evidence that COVID-19 spread in a set of counties with large meatpacking plants has the effect of increasing wholesale beef prices, while country-wide spread has the effect of reducing wholesale prices. The results further imply differences in competition across the market levels, with wholesalers responding as if they face less competition than retailers and farmers.

Sunk Or Dunk?: An Empirical Analysis Of The Effect Of Sunk Cost Fallacy In Professional Basketball, Hailey Dicicco

Business and Economics Presentations

This project is divided into two sections. The first section is a comparison between the NBA and WNBA, using performance metrics from game statistics. I researched the history of women in sports and specifically read about how women first became integrated into the game of soccer. In the regression for section one, we used a few selected performance metrics and minutes in order to observe any relationships between specific skills and minutes. We also focused on the difference between the leagues in terms of what game stats are more or less significant.

In the second section of this paper, we …

Legalized Same-Sex Marriage And Coming Out In America: Evidence From Catholic Seminaries, Avner Seror, Rohit Ticku

ESI Working Papers

We study the effect of legalization of same-sex marriage on coming out in the United States. We overcome data limitations by inferring coming out decisions through a revealed preference mechanism. We exploit data on enrollment in seminary studies for the Catholic priesthood, hypothesizing that Catholic priests' vow of celibacy may lead gay men to self-select as a way to avoid a heterosexual lifestyle. Using a differences-in-differences design that exploits variation in the timing of legalization across states, we find that city-level enrollment in priestly studies fell by about 15% exclusively in states adopting the reform. The celibacy norm appears to …

Case Study Of Property Value Transfer Attributed To Transit: Spatial And Temporal Hedonic Price Impact Of Light Rail In Minnesota’S Twin Cities, Kate Ko

Journal of Public Transportation

Does the proximity of transit increase property values, and can one example apply to another? Using a spatial and temporal hedonic price framework, a study of light rail transit’s impact on residential property values compares the station area property impacts of the Green and Blue lines in Saint Paul and Minneapolis. The study also points to when “value transfer” (used here to describe the comparison and application of property value impacts near transit) is appropriate, and what practitioners should keep in mind to maximize the effectiveness of the exercise. In the case of value transfer for transit, the study finds …

Sfa Application On Islamic Economics And Finance Research, Aam Slamet Rusydiana, Lina Nugraha Rani, Rosadiro Cahyono

Library Philosophy and Practice (e-journal)

This study aims to determine the map of SFA research on Islamic economics and finance (IEF). SFA or Stochastic Frontier Approach is one method for parametric efficiency measurement. The data analyzed were in the form of publication of the SFA application research on IEF, totaling 109 articles. Map of the development of SFA field research is obtained through the export process into the .txt file format. The export data is then processed and analyzed using the VOSviewer application program to determine the SFA development’s bibliometric map in Islamic finance application research. The results showed that the number of publications on …

New York Camp Econometrics Xv Program, Center For Policy Research

Camp Econometrics-Programs

No abstract provided.

Determining The Number Of Communities In Degree-Corrected Stochastic Block Models, Shujie Ma, Liangjun Su, Yichong Zhang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We propose to estimate the number of communities in degree-corrected stochastic block models based on a pseudo likelihood ratio. For estimation, we consider a spectral clustering together with binary segmentation method. This approach guarantees an upper bound for the pseudo likelihood ratio statistic when the model is over-fitted. We also derive its limiting distribution when the model is under-fitted. Based on these properties, we establish the consistency of our estimator for the true number of communities. Developing these theoretical properties require a mild condition on the average degree: growing at a rate faster than log(n), where n is the number …

Mildly Explosive Autoregression With Anti-Persistent Errors, Yiu Lim Lui, Weilin Xiao, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

An asymptotic distribution is derived for the least squares (LS) estimate of a first‐order autoregression with a mildly explosive root and anti‐persistent errors. While the sample moments depend on the Hurst parameter asymptotically, the Cauchy limiting distribution theory remains valid for the LS estimates in the model without intercept and a model with an asymptotically negligible intercept. Monte Carlo studies are designed to check the precision of the Cauchy distribution in finite samples. An empirical study based on the monthly NASDAQ index highlights the usefulness of the model and the new limiting distribution.

Trade Clusters And Usa Southern Border Transportation Costs: 1995-2015, Thomas M. Fullerton Jr., Ernesto Duarte Ronquillo

Border Region Modeling Project

Fixed effects panel regression analysis is used to examine the impact of trade clusters on transportation costs along the southern border of the United States. CIF/ FOB ratios are utilized as the transportation cost measures. Grubel-Lloyd and Herfindahl- Hirschman indexes are utilized to identify trade clusters in the sample. Data are assembled for four custom districts (El Paso, Laredo, Nogales, and San Diego) during a 20-year period between 1995 and 2015. Because cross-sectional residual dependence is present, parameter estimation is carried out using Driscoll-Kraay robust standard errors. 9/11 terrorist attack effects are taken into account in the fixed effects model. …

A Hybrid Equity Release Plan For Retirement Financing, Koon Shing Kwong, Yiu Kuen Tse, Junxing Chay

Research Collection School Of Economics

There are two main equity release plans for retirement financing: reverse mortgage plan and home reversion plan. Both plans entitle the homeowners not only to release cash from their properties but also to allow them living there for life. In the lease buyback scheme (LBS) recently introduced in Singapore, the home owner sells the tail-end of the property lease to the government in exchange for a cash payment upfront. Unlike the two main equity release plans, the LBS only allows the owner to stay in the property for the front part of the lease but not for life.

In this …

Mildly Explosive Autoregression With Anti-Persistent Errors, Yui Lim Lui, Jun Yu, Jun Yu

Research Collection School Of Economics

An asymptotic distribution is derived for the least squares (LS) estimate of a first-order autoregression with a mildly explosive root and anti-persistent errors. While the sample moments depend on the Hurst parameter asymptotically, the Cauchy limiting distribution theory remains valid for the LS estimates in the model without intercept and a model with an asymptotically negligible intercept. Monte Carlo studies are designed to check the precision of the Cauchy distribution in finite samples. An empirical study based on the monthly NASDAQ index highlights the usefulness of the model and the new limiting distribution.

Spatial Dynamic Panel Data Models With Correlated Random Effects, Liyao Li, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

In this paper, M-estimation and inference methods are developed for spatial dynamic panel data models with correlated random effects, based on short panels. The unobserved individual-specific effects are assumed to be correlated with the observed time-varying regressors linearly or in a linearizable way, giving the so-called correlated random effects model, which allows the estimation of effects of time-invariant regressors. The unbiased estimating functions are obtained by adjusting the conditional quasi-scores given the initial observations, leading to M-estimators that are consistent, asymptotically normal, and free from the initial conditions except the process starting time. By decomposing the estimating functions …

A State-Of-The-Art Review Of The Sharing Economy: Scientometric Mapping Of The Scholarship, Anton Klarin, Yuliani Suseno

Research outputs 2014 to 2021

Using a dataset of 2,229 scholarly outputs from the Web of Science on the sharing economy (SE), our scientometric review provides a taxonomy of the current research on the SE in terms of their contributions, theories, and methods utilized in existing studies. The review also highlights a typology of the inter-related concepts of the SE. We demonstrate four clusters of existing research: freelance work and its implications, transportation and solutions for the sustainable development of the SE, user experience and collaborative consumption, and the SE in the context of hospitality and tourism. We suggest future research directions in terms of …

Commodity Futures Returns And Policy Uncertainty, Deepa Bannigidadmath, Paresh Kumar Narayan

Research outputs 2014 to 2021

This paper investigates whether economic policy uncertainty is predictable using three sets of commodity futures market variables, namely the equal-weighted average of futures excess returns, the excess returns on a portfolio of going long in backwardated commodities, and the excess returns on a portfolio of going short in contango commodities as predictors. We find significant evidence of both in-sample and out-of-sample predictability. Combination forecasts also reveal strong evidence of predictability. Our findings remain unchanged following several robustness tests.

Change In Outbreak Epicentre And Its Impact On The Importation Risks Of Covid-19 Progression: A Modelling Study, Oyelola A. Adegboye, Adeshina I. Adekunle, Anton Pak, Ezra Gayawan, Denis H. Y. Leung, Diana P. Rojas, Emma S. Mcbryde, Damon P. Eisen

Research Collection School Of Economics

Background: The outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) that was first detected in the city of Wuhan, China has now spread to every inhabitable continent, but now the attention has shifted from China to other epicentres. This study explored early assessment of the influence of spatial proximities and travel patterns from Italy on the further spread of SARS-CoV-2 worldwide. Methods: Using data on the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 and air travel data between countries, we applied a stochastic meta-population model to estimate the global spread of COVID-19. Pearson's correlation, semi-variogram, and Moran's Index were used to …

The Influence Of Food Recommendations: Evidence From A Randomized Field Experiment, Kamal Bookwala, Caleb Gallemore, Joaquín Gómez-Miñambres

ESI Working Papers

We report results from a randomized field experiment conducted at two food festivals. Our primary aim is to assess the impact of two types of recommendations commonly observed in food settings: most popular and chef’s choice. Subjects select a cupcake from a binary menu. The two options, offered by the same bakery, are the best seller in the bakery and the baker’s recommended cupcake. Our treatments manipulate whether the recommendation is disclosed in tandem with the cupcakes in the menu. We find that the most popular is the only recommendation that statistically significantly increased consumers’ demand relative to …