Econometrics Commons^™

The Contribution Of Mining Sector To Sustainable Development In Saudi Arabia, Mourad Zmami, Ousama Ben-Salha, Sultan O. Almarshad, Houyem Chekki

Journal of Sustainable Mining

The mining sector development is among the priorities of the Saudi Vision 2030. There is currently a lot of interest in the role of the mining sector in Saudi Arabia. This research contributes to this debate by empirically assessing the effects of mining on sustainable development in Saudi Arabia during the period 1980-2018. Unlike many previous studies, the three sustainable development dimensions, namely economic, social, and environmental, are jointly considered. The cointegration analysis, based on the ARDL, Gregory-Hansen, and combined cointegration tests, confirms the existence of long-run relationships between mining and all sustainable development dimensions. Furthermore, the findings lend substantial …

The Extent To Which The Provision Of Water And Sanitation Services Affect The Individual’S Decision To Migrate: The Case Of Egypt, Sara Mohamed Soliman

Theses and Dissertations

Determinants of migration, although researched copiously shed little light on the importance of access to sustainable, basic water and sanitation utilities on an individual’s decision to migrate. This research reveals that individuals originating from rural Upper Egypt, rural and urban Lower Egypt, and rural and urban Alexandria and Suez Canal regions are more likely to migrate relative to those from the urban Greater Cairo region. Access to water has been deemed as insignificant while access to sanitation is a significant factor in determining migration patterns as do macro- economic differences in origin governorates, gender, educational background before migration, and employment …

Group-Identity And Long-Run Cooperation: An Experiment, Gabriele Camera, Lukas Hohl

ESI Working Papers

We stress-test the limits of the power of group identity in the context of cooperation by constructing laboratory economies where participants confront an indefinitely repeated social dilemma as strangers. Group identity is artificially induced by random assignment to color-coded groups, and reinforced by an initial cooperation task played in-group and in fixed pairs. Subsequently subjects interact in-group and out-group in large economies, as strangers. Indefinite repetition guarantees full cooperation is an equilibrium. Decision-makers can discriminate based on group affiliation, but cannot observe past behaviors. We find no evidence of group biases. This suggests that group effects are less likely to …

Do Conditional Cash Transfers Increase School Enrollment? Evidence From Brazil, Jeanette L. Silvernale

Master's Theses

Conditional cash transfer programs have been widely deployed across the globe. They seek to bolster human capital by providing benefits contingent upon a variety of actions such as school attendance and regular health checkups. Bolsa Familia is the most extensive conditional cash transfer program, serving 46 million Brazilian citizens. Despite its expansive size, there have been seldom large-scale micro evaluations of the program. Limited data has resulted in small sample sizes drawn from a single point in time. Our study diverges from the rest and utilizes a novel administrative dataset with an overall sample of nearly 60 million and a …

Essays On Economic Uncertainty And Housing Market In China, Humenghe Zhao

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This dissertation consists of three chapters that covers topics in macroeconomics.

Chapter 1. Literature Survey of China’s Housing Market and Macroeconomic Uncertainty is a survey of the literature on the history and development of China’s housing market, its unique characteristics, the driving forces behind rising housing prices, and the empirical interactions among housing market, economic uncertainty and the macroeconomy in China.

Chapter 2. The Spatial Correlation of Regional Housing Prices and Economic Uncertainty in China

Rapid real estate development and house price growth in China have garnered significant attention in academia and policy circles. Investigation into highly differentiated but interrelated …

Budget Deficit And Economic Growth In Nigeria, A. D. Umaru, H. M. Aliero, M. Abubakar

Economic and Financial Review

This paper examines the relationship between budget deficit and economic growth in Nigeria, from a linear and non-linear perspective, using annual time series data from 1981 to 2019. The linear model, which involves the use of an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, was compared with a non-linear analysis, using a threshold autoregressive (TAR) model. The ARDL analysis reveals that the growth of national output is positively driven by the persistent budget deficit in Nigeria. This was substantiated by the TAR model which indicates that though budget deficit drives economic growth in Nigeria, the positive relationship holds only if the deficit …

Three Essays On Spatial Econometrics: The Matrix Exponential Spatial Specification, Ye Yang

Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects

This thesis consists of three essays on the matrix exponential spatial specification. In the first essay, we study the generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation of matrix exponential spatial specification(p,q) (MESS(p,q)). We extend the model to a general higher order case and derive its GMM estimator. The large sample properties are also studied. Under homoskedasticity a best GMM estimator (BGMME) is derived and shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. Under heteroskedasticity an optimal GMM estimator (OGMME) is derived and shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal as well. Monte Carlo experiments that discuss the large sample properties of quasi-maximum …

Classical Theory Of Competitive Market Price Formation, Sabiou M. Inoua, Vernon L. Smith

ESI Working Papers

We offer an information theory of market price formation, formalizing and elaborating on an old, implicit, classical tradition of supply and demand based on buyers’ and sellers’ mone-tary valuations of commodities (formally their reservation prices) and competition as a multilat-eral higgling and bargaining process. The early laboratory market experiments, as it turns out with hindsight, established the remarkable stability, efficiency, and robustness of the old view of competitive price discovery, and not the neoclassical price theory (based on individual utility and profit maximization for given prices). Herein, we present a partial-equilibrium version of the the-ory in which wealth is implicitly …

The Health Costs Of Political Identity: Evidence From Public Safety Responses In The Us And A Natural Experiment In California, Sahiba Chopra

Master's Theses

The Covid-19 pandemic has brought political polarization in the US to the forefront of the battle against coronavirus. We find that for every one percentage point increase in votes for Trump there are 881 more Covid-19 cases and 17 more Covid-19 deaths. We find that these results are motivated by political identity as it is mediated through public safety behaviors like maskwearing and social distancing. In addition, a natural experiment in California during the first half of the pandemic in the US finds that 36% of the Covid-19 cases at the census tract level in California can be associated with …

Transitioning Into Retirement: Effect Of Pension Expansion On Elderly Labor Force Participation In India, Devaprasad Sahadevan

Master's Theses

The welfare effects of public social security programs have been extensively studied in the context of developing economies where the reliance on state is much larger for the provision of basic goods and services. Pension schemes and reforms, however, are met with much less fiscal investment considering the demographic composition and the requisite demands of the larger proportion of youth- and working age- population. Given the rapid pace of demographic transition, there will inevitably be an ever-growing pressure and economic problems associated with aging are bound to become more apparent. As transitioning into retirement is an under-studied area in countries …

Temperature Effects On Prevalence Of Sexually Transmitted Infections Among At-Risk Female Sex Workers In India, Rajshri Suresh

Master's Theses

Vulnerability to climate change varies depending on the baseline climate, sensitivity to given exposure, and the presence of social, political, cultural, and institutional inequalities that influence access to essential resources of livelihood, particularly among informal labor market participants. Within the risky informal labor market, the transient nature of sex work implies that sex workers suffer disproportional losses in health, income, protection, and other aspects of general well-being as a result of the effects of climate anomalies. In this paper, I investigate the effect of temperature on the prevalence of sexually transmitted infections in a high-risk population of female sex workers …

An Inferentially Robust Look At Two Competing Explanations For The Surge In Unauthorized Migration From Central America, Nick Santos

Dissertations

The last 8 years have seen a dramatic increase in the flow of Central American apprehensions by the U.S. Border Patrol. Explanations for this surge in apprehensions have been split between two leading hypotheses. Most academic scholars, immigrant advocates, progressive media outlets, and human rights organizations identify poverty and violence (the Poverty and Violence Hypothesis) in Central America as the primary triggers responsible. In contrast, while most government officials, conservative think tanks, and the agencies that work in the immigration and border enforcement realm admit poverty and violence may underlie some decisions to migrate, they instead blame lax U.S. immigration …

Latent Local-To-Unity Models, Jun Yu

SMU Economics and Statistics Working Paper Series

This paper proposes a class of state-space models where the state equation is a local-to-unity process. The large sample theory is obtained for the least squares (LS) estimator of the autoregressive (AR) parameter in the AR representation of the model under two sets of conditions. In the first set of conditions, the error term in the observation equation is independent and identically distributed (iid), and the error term in the state equation is stationary and fractionally integrated with memory parameter H ϵ 2 (0; 1). It is shown that both the rate of convergence and the asymptotic distribution of the …

On Factor Models With Random Missing: Em Estimation, Inference, And Cross Validation, Sainan Jin, Ke Miao, Liangjun Su

Research Collection School Of Economics

We consider the estimation and inference in approximate factor models with random missing values. We show that with the low rank structure of the common component, we can estimate the factors and factor loadings consistently with the missing values replaced by zeros. We establish the asymptotic distributions of the resulting estimators and those based on the EM algorithm. We also propose a cross validation-based method to determine the number of factors in factor models with or without missing values and justify its consistency. Simulations demonstrate that our cross validation method is robust to fat tails in the error distribution and …

Covid-19: A Black Swan?, Ben M. Uehlinger

Senior Honors Projects, 2020-current

A Black Swan, as termed by Nassim Taleb, is an unexpected, high magnitude event that is often rationalized in hindsight. 9/11 and the Financial Crisis of 2008 are two examples of these tail probability events. Though COVID-19 has been regarded as momentous and unexpected, Taleb does not credit it as a true Black Swan. This paper aims to compare COVID-19 to these recent Black Swans in terms of predictability and significance. Cointegration was tested across 11 major sectors. Further economic indicators were explored with the goal of discussing the broader context of each event. It was concluded that COVID-19 was …

The Impact Of Graduate School Ranking On An Economics Professor’S Annual Earnings, Shailee Manandhar

Honors Theses

What are the economic returns to attending a more selective college? This thesis adds to the growing literature on college choices and economic returns by analyzing the effects of graduate school ranking on the annual earnings of economics professors in the United States. In order to answer this question, the author collected an original data set using publicly available salary information from a number of US-based institutions. The data in this paper uses McPherson’s ranking of US Economics Departments, h-index, and other factors collected from the individuals’ CVs to estimate the economic returns. The results from Ordinary Least Squares regression …

Environmental Policy And Employment: The Effect Of The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative On The Labor Market, Kelly-Anne Moffa

Honors Scholar Theses

This paper estimates the impacts that the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, implemented in 2009, has had on labor market outcomes within the policy region. The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative is a carbon cap-and-trade program that consists of ten states in the Northeast. Using a difference-in-difference framework, I found that, overall, there was no significant impact on the annual employment growth rate because of RGGI. When broken down into industry-specific effects, most industries still had no significant employment effects, although the mining industry did see a weakly significant 0.09 percentage point decrease in its annual employment growth rate. These estimates are …

Standard Vs Random Dictator Games: On The Effects Of Role Uncertainty And Framing On Generosity, Ernesto Mesa-Vázquez, Ismael Rodriguez-Lara, Amparo Urbano

ESI Working Papers

We show that generosity is affected when we vary the level of role uncertainty, i.e., the probability that the dictator’s decision will be implemented. We also show that framing matters for generosity in that subjects are less generous when they are told that their choices will be implemented with a certain probability, compared with a setting in which they are told that their choices will not be implemented with certain probability.

Three Essays On Nonstationary Financial Econometrics, Yajie Zhang

Dissertations and Theses Collection (Open Access)

This dissertation consists of three essays that contribute to the theory of nonstationary time-series analysis.

The first chapter explores the inference procedures for predictive regressions with time-varying characteristics. We extend the self-generated instrumentation, called IVX, to incorporate persistent regressors of functional local-to-unity, functional mildly explosive, and functional mildly stationary roots. The asymptotic distributions of IVX estimators under time-varying parameters are novel and nonpivotal but lead to pivotal distributions of the corresponding Wald statistics that are robust across various roots. The numerical experiments justify the robustness of IVX testing procedures in finite samples. We also verify the existence of time-varying coefficients …

Business Cycles, Trend Elimination, And The Hp Filter, Peter C. B. Phillips, Sainan Jin

Research Collection School Of Economics

Trend elimination and business cycle estimation are analyzed by finite sample and asymptotic methods. An overview history is provided, operator theory is developed, limit theory as the sample size n → ∞ is derived, and filtered series properties are studied relative to smoothing parameter (λ) behavior. Simulations reveal that limit theory with λ =O(n4) delivers excellent approximations to the HP filter for common sample sizes but fails to remove stochastic trends, contrary to standard thinking in macroeconomics and thereby explaining ‘spurious cycle’ effects of the HP filter. The findings are related to the long run effects of the GFC.