Econometrics Commons^™

Urbanization Trends In Asean: The Impact Of Key Sosioeconomics Factors, Rifki Khoirudin, Muhammad Safar Nasir

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan

This study aims to analyze the influence of agricultural land, carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, Gini index, environmental quality index, and foreign direct investment (FDI) on urbanization in seven ASEAN countries, namely Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam during the period 2014–2023. Urbanization in this region is an important phenomenon in the process of economic development, but also poses significant ecological and social challenges. This study uses a quantitative approach with panel data types (time series and cross section). The data are processed with the panel data regression analysis method, and the selection of the best model based …

The Interaction Between Fiscal Policy And Investment In Moderating Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence From 32 Countries, Fariha Rizqiyah Febriana, Alifa Fauzia Ardania, Aminudin Ma'ruf

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan

This study analyzes the moderating role of investment in the relationship between fiscal policy and economic growth across 32 Asian countries during the period 2005-2022. Using balanced panel data and a fixed-effects regression model, this study includes an interaction term between government spending and gross capital formation and controls for inflation, population growth, and trade openness. The results show a statistically significant positive interaction between government spending and investment, reflecting a complementary crowding-in effect on economic growth. Investment itself has a positive effect on growth, while government spending, when considered separately, has a negative correlation. The moderating effect is conditional, …

Multicriteria Policy (Multipol) Analysis For Enhancing Indonesian Coffee Exports, Indri Arrafi Juliannisa, Sarah Ghania, Jubaedah Jubaedah, Masripah Masripah, Abdul Razak Abdul Hadi

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan

Indonesia, a major global coffee producer, faces challenges in boosting coffee exports due to low productivity, production fluctuations, and competition from countries like Vietnam and Brazil. Despite large plantation areas, issues such as climate change, pests, and aging plants have caused declining export volumes and market share. This study aims to develop strategies to increase Indonesian coffee exports, specifically for Cijantur Aroma Coffee beyond Malaysia, using the MULTIPOL method—a participatory multi-criteria decision analysis. Findings highlight that the most effective strategy is strengthening international market demand through innovative promotion, especially on social media. Additionally, improving processing technology, diversifying export destinations, and …

Sezs Vs Industrial Areas: Growth Determinants In Indonesia, Henny Oktavianti, Ambariyanto Ambariyanto, Burentegsh Dorjjugder

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan

This study aims to analyze the differences in the influence of the Gini ratio, unemployment rate, and education on economic growth in ten regencies/municipalities located within Special Economic Zones (SEZs) and ten conventional non-SEZ industrial regencies/municipalities in Indonesia during the period 2017–2023. The research adopts a quantitative approach using panel data regression analysis. The selected model is the Common Effect Model. The results indicate that the Gini ratio, unemployment rate, and education significantly affect economic growth in Special Economic Zones. Meanwhile, in conventional industrial regencies/municipalities, the unemployment rate and education have a significant impact on economic growth, whereas the Gini …

An Analysis Of Poverty Convergence: Evidence From Pennsylvania Counties, Angel Alcantara, Stephanie M. Brewer, James J. Jozefowicz

The Journal of Economics and Politics

This paper extends applications of unconditional and conditional β-convergence and σ-convergence analysis to poverty rates in a panel data sample of Pennsylvania counties during the period 1990-2019. Spatial structural breaks between rural and urban counties in Pennsylvania plus the possibility that Philadelphia County is an outlier are acknowledged to avoid spurious inferences. The findings support the existence of unconditional β-convergence in the pooled, urban, and rural samples with non-metropolitan areas exhibiting the greatest convergence. However, the largest conditional β-convergence is observed for urban counties, and this outcome is robust to the exclusion of Philadelphia County. Graphical evidence evinces a greater …

The Methodology Of Multiple Regressions For Gdp Per Capita For Nations In The World Between 0 Ce And 1940, Robert Rogers

The Journal of Economics and Politics

A reduced-form model of GDP per capita is estimated using the classical econometric method and two Bayesian techniques, Extreme Bounds Analysis (EBA) and Bayesian Analysis of Classical Estimation (BACE) for the two millenniums. For several variables, such as the impact of colonialism, the Goldstone hypothesis of efflorescence increasing economic growth, and the impact of technology, this paper lends support, especially when the Bayesian methods are applied. Other results are mixed. Generally, the results support use of Bayesian methods by eliminating hypotheses that are not consistently supported over all models.

Information Cascades In The Classroom: The Relationship Between In-Class Feedback And Course Performance, Amanda C. Cook, James Bland, Andrew Meisner

The Journal of Economics and Politics

Technology is used in undergraduate courses to engage students and provide feedback about understanding. TopHat is an application which displays multiple choice questions mid-class. In this field experiment, we determine if displaying or hiding the distribution of peer responses has an impact on exam scores. When students see peer responses, we observe information cascades on both correct and incorrect answers. Getting an individual TopHat question correct predicts a 1.3 percentage point increase on final exam scores, however we find no difference in predictive power between treatments. Participating in one negative cascade predicts that a student will score approximately five percentage …

Higher-Order Risk Preferences Over Wealth And Time: Theory And Behavioral Consistency, Hannah H. Chen, Cary Deck, Rachel J. Huang, Larry Y. Tzeng, Lin Zhao

ESI Working Papers

Economic decisions often involve uncertainty in both wealth and time. We introduce an axiom requiring the trade-of between wealth and time to remain invariant across both domains. Together with standard axioms, it characterizes Expected Additive Time-Wealth Utility (EATWU). We provide an alternative characterization based on consistency in higher-order risk preferences and extend risk apportionment to decisions involving wealth, time, and both. Our model predicts consistent risk allocations across these domains within each order. A laboratory experiment examining second-, third-, and fourth-order risk preferences fnds systematic relationships across domains that are broadly consistent with the model’s predictions.

Auctioning The Right To Trust And Reciprocate: Scarcity, Market Allocation, And Selection In The Trust Game, Jason Shachat, J. Todd Swarthout, Yun Wang

ESI Working Papers

We examine how competitive allocation of scarce participation rights shapes behavior in a Berg-style trust game. Trustor and trustee roles are allocated through multi-unit uniform-price English auctions with varying scarcity, alongside a matched-fee random-assignment control treatment. Positive transfers and returns persist, but behavior lies near the low-trust, low-reciprocity end of comparable benchmarks. Tighter scarcity accelerates the decline in trustor transfers, while trustee returns show no monotonic pattern. Scarcity strongly raises auction prices without comparably raising participants’ gross trust-game earnings, thereby lowering net earnings. Exit bids adjust to past game profitability, indicating adaptive learning about the value of participation.

Examining The Nexus Of Economic Complexity With Energy Transition And Environmental Sustainability: A Systematic Literature Review, Neharika Singh, Meenakshi Gupta

Journal of Environmental Science and Sustainable Development

Economic complexity captures the diversity and sophistication of productive knowledge and capabilities embedded in an economy. Research on the relationship between economic complexity, energy transition, and environmental quality is growing rapidly. However, their findings differ across countries, development levels, and different energy and environmental indicators. As a result, the conditions under which economic complexity contributes to energy transition and environmental sustainability remain unclear across different contexts. To address this gap, this study conducts a systematic literature review following PRISMA guidelines and applies the Theory–Context–Characteristics–Methodology (TCCM) framework to synthesize evidence on economic complexity, energy transition, and environmental sustainability. The studies were …

Nigeria's 2025 Tax Act In Comparative Perspective: Tax Rates, Compliance, And Fiscal Space With Econometric And Machine-Learning Evidence From Nigeria, South Africa, The United Kingdom, And The United States, Olatunji Dauda Ojedokun, Seun Adebanjo

Economic and Business Review

This study compares Nigeria's 2025 Tax Act with regimes in South Africa, the United Kingdom, and the United States using quarterly panel data (2000–2025) and complementary econometric and machine-learning methods. We estimate fixed-effects difference-in-differences, autoregressive distributed lag/cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributed lag error-correction models, dynamic panel generalised method of moments, and local projections to identify short- and long-run effects on revenue efficiency, compliance behaviour, and fiscal space. Predictions for VAT/corporate income tax revenues and gaps are generated with Elastic Net, Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM, and heterogeneity is assessed via generalised random forests and doubly robust learners. Results show a significant, …

Threshold Spatial Panel Regression With Fixed Effects, Xiaoyu Meng, Zhenlin Yang

Research Collection School Of Economics

We introduce general estimation and inference methods for threshold spatial panel regression with two-way fixed effects in a diminishing-threshold-effects framework. A valid objective function is obtained through a simple adjustment on the concentrated quasi loglikelihood with fixed effects being concentrated out, which leads to a consistent estimation of all common parameters. We show that the estimation of threshold parameter has a negligible effect on the asymptotic distribution of the main parameter estimators and thereby regular inference methods apply, though a bias correction may be necessary. The limiting distribution of the threshold parameter estimator is shown to be non-regular and infeasible, …

Fiscal Decentralization, Local Government Size, And Regional Economic Growth: Evidence From Indonesia, Faizul Mubarok, Hasta Dwi Pradana, Etty Puji Lestari

Bulletin of Monetary Economics and Banking

This study investigates the dynamic relationship between fiscal decentralization, local government size, and regional economic growth in Indonesia. Integrating fiscal federalism theory with the Armey curve framework, the study examines whether decentralization reshapes the scale of subnational governments and how this influences growth outcomes. Using balanced panel data from 26 Indonesian provinces over the period 1995–2020, the analysis employs dynamic panel estimators based on the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to address endogeneity, persistence, and unobserved heterogeneity. The results reveal a nuanced relationship between fiscal decentralization and government size. Greater revenue autonomy is associated with a contraction in government size …

The Mundlak Estimator In A Panel Data Model With Serially Correlated Error Component Disturbances, Badi H. Baltagi, Long Liu

Center for Policy Research

This paper shows that the classic Mundlak (1978) result where the random effects estimator reduces to the fixed effects estimator when the regressors are all correlated with the individual effects, may not hold if the remainder disturbances have a general serial correlation variance-covariance matrix. This includes the popular AR(1), MA(1) and ARMA(p, q) processes for serial correlation. This is illustrated with an empirical example for the AR(1) case.

The Ecological Impacts Of Un-Protecting Forests: The Case Of Gold Mining In Ghana, Tate Alexander Barend

Master's Theses

This paper estimates the causal effect of Ghana’s Legislative Instrument 2462 (L.I. 2462) on deforestation in protected areas. The policy redefined the regulatory regime governing small-scale gold mining in protected areas, moving from prohibition to discretionary permitting. I exploit the implementation of L.I. 2462 as a policy shock and apply a difference-in-differences event-study framework to a propensity score–matched sample of pixels derived from high-resolution satellite images. Contrary to widespread concerns that the policy would accelerate deforestation, the results provide no evidence of large-scale vegetation loss in exposed protected areas following the policy change. Instead, protected area pixels located within 5 …

Trust, Delegation, And Alignment In Human-Ai Decision Making, Erik O. Kimbrough, Brennan Mcdavid, Diba Vazirian

ESI Working Papers

This paper studies delegation to artificial intelligence in a setting where human principals retain the consequences of delegated choices. Participants wrote prompts instructing ChatGPT-4o mini how to choose on their behalf in three canonical economic domains: risky choice, intertemporal choice, and social allocation. We then elicited the compensation participants required to let the AI’s choices count for payment and compared participants’ own choices to choices generated from their prompts. The design produces two central empirical objects: a revealed measure of reluctance to delegate, captured by willingness to accept compensation for AI delegation, and a behavioral measure of alignment, captured by …

Projecting The Broad Money Supply From Base Money Dynamics, Baba N. Yaaba

Bullion

The study demonstrates that in periods when Other Depository Corporations' balance sheet data are unavailable, broad money (M3) can be reasonably projected by combining the monetary base from the CBN balance sheet with the immediately preceding money multiplier. This time-varying approach using the lagged multiplier provides an appropriate and empirically justified basis for projecting broad money. However, the application of this methodology should be confined to internal policy analysis and decision-making purposes and not extended to public dissemination.

Assessing Healthcare Access Among Overweight And Obese Individuals In Türkiye Using Latent Variable Modeling, Banu Beyaz Sipahi

Makara Journal of Health Research

Background: Overweight and obesity are critical determinants of healthcare access, yet evidence on how the COVID-19 pandemic reshaped these dynamics in Türkiye remains limited. This study investigates whether the early post-pandemic recovery period altered healthcare access patterns for individuals with excess weight.

Methods: Using nationally representative microdata from the 2014, 2016, 2019, and 2022 Turkish Health Surveys, we constructed a latent Healthcare Access Index based on six indicators of unmet care needs. Probit models were estimated to assess associations between BMI categories and healthcare access, controlling for socioeconomic and demographic factors. The 2022 wave serves as the early …

Airline Ticket Anaysis, Emerson Kohl, Ivan O'Neil

Discovery Day - Daytona Beach

While the U.S. domestic airline industry generates hundreds of billions in annual revenue, the mechanics of airfare pricing remain remarkably opaque to travelers and analysts alike. Prices for geographically similar routes often diverge sharply, driven by a complex interplay of structural constraints and market pressures. This study elucidates the primary drivers of ticket pricing by analyzing high-frequency data from the Bureau of Transportation Statistics DB1B database.   Utilizing an Ordinary Least Squares framework, the research evaluates how route distance, carrier concentration, passenger throughput, and seasonal fluctuations collectively dictate average fares. By quantifying these relationships in Python, the analysis seeks to isolate …

From Personal To Personalized Goals: How Goal Nudges Improve Production, Joaquín Gómez-Miñambres, Brice Corgnet, Roberto Hernán González

ESI Working Papers

We study how workers’ non-binding self-set goals affect their production and whether goal nudges (ability-calibrated goal hints) make goal setting more effective. In a real-effort task, participants first complete an ability pretest and are then assigned to one of three treatments: a no-goal baseline, a personal goal treatment with no external hint, or a personalized goal nudge that participants may accept or modify. We document a positive link between goals and production. However, merely asking workers to set goals is ineffective: when left unguided, workers anchor on conservative goals well below those induced by goal nudges, leading to underperformance. In …