International Knowledge Flows And Technological Advance: The Role Of International Migration,
2012
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
International Knowledge Flows And Technological Advance: The Role Of International Migration, Kacey N. Douglas
College of Business: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research
Immigration is a major aspect of globalization. As the world becomes increasingly integrated, it becomes important to learn more about the effects of immigration on global economic growth. According to Robert Solow’s long run growth model, technological advance is the only form of economic growth sustainable in the long run. Those who contribute to technological advance – highly skilled labor – however, increasingly emigrate from lesser developed to more developed countries in a process known as brain drain. This process has been shown to lead to a permanent increase in income and growth in the host country relative to the …
Optimal Estimation Under Nonstandard Conditions,
2012
Washington University in St. Louis
Optimal Estimation Under Nonstandard Conditions, Werner Ploberger, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
We analyze optimality properties of maximum likelihood (ML) and other estimators when the problem does not necessarily fall within the locally asymptotically normal (LAN) class, therefore covering cases that are excluded from conventional LAN theory such as unit root nonstationary time series. The classical Hajek-Le Cam optimality theory is adapted to cover this situation. We show that the expectation of certain monotone "bowl-shaped" functions of the squared estimation error are minimized by the ML estimator in locally asymptotically quadratic situations, which often occur in nonstationary time series analysis when the LAN property fails. Moreover, we demonstrate a direct connection between …
Mean And Autocovariance Function Estimation Near The Boundary Of Stationarity,
2012
University of London
Mean And Autocovariance Function Estimation Near The Boundary Of Stationarity, Liudas Giraitis, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
We analyze the applicability of standard normal asymptotic theory for linear process models near the boundary of stationarity. Limit results are given for estimation of the mean, autocovariance and autocorrelation functions within the broad region of stationarity that includes near boundary cases which vary with the sample size. The rate of consistency and the validity of the normal asymptotic approximation for the corresponding estimators is determined both by the sample size n and a parameter measuring the proximity of the model to the unit root boundary. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Robust Deviance Information Criterion For Latent Variable Models,
2012
Renmin University of China
Robust Deviance Information Criterion For Latent Variable Models, Yong Li, Tao Zeng, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
It is shown in this paper that the data augmentation technique undermines the theoretical underpinnings of the deviance information criterion (DIC), a widely used information criterion for Bayesian model comparison, although it facilitates parameter estimation for latent variable models via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. Data augmentation makes the likelihood function non-regular and hence invalidates the standard asymptotic arguments. A new information criterion, robust DIC (RDIC), is proposed for Bayesian comparison of latent variable models. RDIC is shown to be a good approximation to DIC without data augmentation. While the later quantity is difficult to compute, the expectation { …
Detecting Bubbles In Hong Kong Residential Property Market,
2012
Singapore Management University
Detecting Bubbles In Hong Kong Residential Property Market, Matthew S. Yiu, Jun Yu, Lu Jin
Research Collection School Of Economics
This study uses a newly developed bubble detection method (Phillips, Shi and Yu, 2011) to identify real estate bubbles in the Hong Kong residential property market. Our empirical results reveal several positive bubbles in the Hong Kong residential property market, including one in 1995, a stronger one in 1997, another one in 2004, and a more recent one in 2008. In addition, the method identifies two negative bubbles in the data, one in 2000 and the other one in 2001. These empirical results continue to be valid for the mass segment and the luxury segment. However, the method finds a …
Recent Advances In Nonstationary Time Series: A Festschrift In Honor Of Peter C. B. Phillips,
2012
University of Pennsylvania
Recent Advances In Nonstationary Time Series: A Festschrift In Honor Of Peter C. B. Phillips, Robert S. Mariano, Zhijie Xiao, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
On July 14–15, 2008, the School of Economics and the Sim Kee Boon Institute for Financial Economics at Singapore Management University (SMU) co-hosted a conference honoring the contribution of Peter Phillips to econometrics and statistics, in celebration of his 60th birthday. In total, 51 papers were presented by his colleagues and former students, who deeply appreciate and respect Peter as a true scholar and a good friend. These papers mainly cover two areas of Peter’s current research interests—nonstationary time series analysis, and panel, nonlinear and nonparametric models. On the basis of this conference, we have taken the opportunity to edit …
Making The Case For Public Health: Estimating Roi And Value,
2012
University of Kentucky
Making The Case For Public Health: Estimating Roi And Value, Glen P. Mays
Health Management and Policy Presentations
This presentation describes recent progress and new directions for estimating the value of public health strategies and infrastructure.
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — July 2012,
2012
University of Rhode Island
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — July 2012, Leonard Lardaro
The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index
No abstract provided.
Sieve Estimation Of Panel Data Models With Cross Section Dependence,
2012
Singapore Management University
Sieve Estimation Of Panel Data Models With Cross Section Dependence, Liangjun Su, Sainan Jin
Research Collection School Of Economics
In this paper we consider the problem of estimating semiparametric panel data models with cross section dependence, where the individual-specific regressors enter the model nonparametrically whereas the common factors enter the model linearly. We consider both heterogeneous and homogeneous regression relationships when both the time and cross-section dimensions are large. We propose sieve estimators for the nonparametric regression functions by extending Pesaran’s (2006) common correlated effect (CCE) estimator to our semiparametric framework. Asymptotic normal distributions for the proposed estimators are derived and asymptotic variance estimators are provided. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that our estimators perform well in finite samples.
Statistical Tests For Multiple Forecast Comparison,
2012
Singapore Management University
Statistical Tests For Multiple Forecast Comparison, Roberto Mariano, Daniel P. A. Preve
Research Collection School Of Economics
We consider a multivariate version of the Diebold–Mariano test for equal predictive ability of three or more forecasting models. The Wald-type test, S, which has a null distribution that is asymptotically chi-squared, is shown to be generally invariant with respect to the ordering of the models being compared. Finite-sample corrections for the test are also developed. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that S has reasonable size properties in large samples but tends to be oversized in moderate samples. The finite-sample correction succeeds in correcting for size, but only partially. For the size-adjusted tests, power increases with sample size, as expected. It …
Bias In The Estimation Of The Mean Reversion Parameter In Continuous Time Models,
2012
Singapore Management University
Bias In The Estimation Of The Mean Reversion Parameter In Continuous Time Models, Jun Yu
Research Collection School Of Economics
It is well known that for continuous time models with a linear drift standard estimation methods yield biased estimators for the mean reversion parameter both in finite discrete samples and in large in-fill samples. In this paper, we obtain two expressions to approximate the bias of the least squares/maximum likelihood estimator of the mean reversion parameter in the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with a known long run mean when discretely sampled data are available. The first expression mimics the bias formula of Marriott and Pope (1954) for the discrete time model. Simulations show that this expression does not work satisfactorily when the …
Quantifying The Value Of Public Health Investments,
2012
University of Kentucky
Quantifying The Value Of Public Health Investments, Glen P. Mays
Health Management and Policy Presentations
This session reviews recent findings from a series of studies that estimate the health and economic effects attributable to investments in public health services and delivery systems.
Developing Service Delivery Measures For Studies Of Practice Variation: The Mprove Study,
2012
University of Kentucky
Developing Service Delivery Measures For Studies Of Practice Variation: The Mprove Study, Glen P. Mays
Health Management and Policy Presentations
OBJECTIVES: A growing body of evidence indicates that the delivery of public health activities varies widely across states and communities, creating missed opportunities for prevention as well as inequities in health protection. Consequently, HHS recently used a consensus-based process to develop a framework for improving quality in public health and to identify a set of nine priority areas for improvement. As next steps in operationalizing this framework, measures of quality in public health are needed to guide public health improvement initiatives and to support research on the comparative effectiveness of alternative public health strategies. This presentation profiles the methodology developed …
Scale And Scope Effects In Public Health Delivery: Estimating Gains From Regionalization,
2012
University of Kentucky
Scale And Scope Effects In Public Health Delivery: Estimating Gains From Regionalization, Glen P. Mays
Health Management and Policy Presentations
OBJECTIVES: Current approaches to health system reform under the Affordable Care Act include efforts to enhance the delivery of public health services that promote health and prevent disease and injury on a population-wide basis. The nation’s public health delivery system comprises nearly 3000 local public health agencies that vary widely in size, resources, and capabilities. Economic pressures, workforce shortages, and new national accreditation standards are leading these agencies to explore mechanisms for pooling resources and expertise across local jurisdictions to enhance delivery and improve population health. This analysis uses longitudinal observations on a national sample of local public health agencies …
Funding Public Health: A New Iom Report On Investing In A Healthier Future,
2012
Partners Healthcare
Funding Public Health: A New Iom Report On Investing In A Healthier Future, George Isham, Robert Kaplan, Glen P. Mays
Health Management and Policy Presentations
A new Institute of Medicine report recommends establishing a national target for life expectancy and implementing new mechanisms for financing public health strategies to acheive this target.
Expanding The Evidence Base For Accreditation And Qi: Progress In Practice-Based Research Networks,
2012
University of Kentucky
Expanding The Evidence Base For Accreditation And Qi: Progress In Practice-Based Research Networks, Glen P. Mays
Health Management and Policy Presentations
Studies that examine the implementation and impact of quality improvement strategies in public health are underway through the Public Health Practice-Based Research Networks.
Estimating Medical Cost Offsets Attributable To Public Health Spending,
2012
University of Kentucky
Estimating Medical Cost Offsets Attributable To Public Health Spending, Glen P. Mays
Health Management and Policy Presentations
BACKGROUND: Policy strategies for reforming the U.S. health care system to control costs and improve health outcomes include the possibility of expanded support for public health activities that are designed to prevent disease and promote health on a population-wide basis. These activities include efforts to monitor and report on community health status, investigate and control disease outbreaks, educate the public about health risks and prevention strategies, develop and enforce laws and regulations to protect health, and inspect and assure the safety and quality of water, food, air and other resources necessary for health. The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act …
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — June 2012,
2012
University of Rhode Island
Rhode Island Current Conditions Index — June 2012, Leonard Lardaro
The Rhode Island Current Conditions Index
No abstract provided.
Nonlinear Cointegrating Regression Under Weak Identification,
2012
University of Wisconsin
Nonlinear Cointegrating Regression Under Weak Identification, Xiaoxia Shi, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
An asymptotic theory is developed for a weakly identified cointegrating regression model in which the regressor is a nonlinear transformation of an integrated process. Weak identification arises from the presence of a loading coefficient for the nonlinear function that may be close to zero. In that case, standard nonlinear cointegrating limit theory does not provide good approximations to the finite-sample distributions of nonlinear least squares estimators, resulting in potentially misleading inference. A new local limit theory is developed that approximates the finite-sample distributions of the estimators uniformly well irrespective of the strength of the identification. An important technical component of …
Dynamic Misspecification In Nonparametric Cointegrating Regression,
2012
University of Cyprus
Dynamic Misspecification In Nonparametric Cointegrating Regression, Ioannis Kasparis, Peter C. B. Phillips
Research Collection School Of Economics
Linear cointegration is known to have the important property of invariance under temporal translation. The same property is shown not to apply for nonlinear cointegration. The limit properties of the Nadaraya-Watson (NW) estimator for cointegrating regression under misspecified lag structure are derived, showing the NW estimator to be inconsistent, in general, with a "pseudo-true function" limit that is a local average of the true regression function. In this respect nonlinear cointegrating regression differs importantly from conventional linear cointegration which is invariant to time translation. When centred on the pseudo-true function and appropriately scaled, the NW estimator still has a mixed …
