Inference On The Stress-Strength Model From Weibull Gamma Distribution,
2017
Al-Azhar University - Egypt
Inference On The Stress-Strength Model From Weibull Gamma Distribution, Mahmoud Mansour, Rashad El-Sagheer, M. A. W. Mahmoud Prof.
Basic Science Engineering
No abstract provided.
The Battle Against Malaria: A Teachable Moment,
2017
Schoolcraft College
The Battle Against Malaria: A Teachable Moment, Randy K. Schwartz
Journal of Humanistic Mathematics
Malaria has been humanity’s worst public health problem throughout recorded history. Mathematical methods are needed to understand which factors are relevant to the disease and to develop counter-measures against it. This article and the accompanying exercises provide examples of those methods for use in lower- or upper-level courses dealing with probability, statistics, or population modeling. These can be used to illustrate such concepts as correlation, causation, conditional probability, and independence. The article explains how the apparent link between sickle cell trait and resistance to malaria was first verified in Uganda using the chi-squared probability distribution. It goes on to explain …
The Conditional Poisson Process And The Erlang And Negative Binomial Distributions,
2017
Rochester Institute of Technology
The Conditional Poisson Process And The Erlang And Negative Binomial Distributions, Anurag Agarwal, Peter Bajorski, David L. Farnsworth, James E. Marengo, Wei Qian
Articles
It is a well known fact that for the hierarchical model of a Poisson random variable Y whose mean has an Erlang distribution, the unconditional distribution of Y is negative binomial. However, the proofs in the literature provide no intuitive understanding as to why this result should be true. It is the purpose of this manuscript to give a new proof of this result which provides such an understanding. The memoryless property of the exponential distribution allows one to conclude that the events in two independent Poisson processes may be regarded as Bernoulli trials, and this fact is used to …
Quantifying Similarity In Reliability Surfaces Using The Probability Of Agreement,
2017
University of San Francisco
Quantifying Similarity In Reliability Surfaces Using The Probability Of Agreement, Nathaniel Stevens, C. M. Anderson-Cook
Mathematics
When separate populations exhibit similar reliability as a function of multiple explanatory variables, combining them into a single population is tempting. This can simplify future predictions and reduce uncertainty associated with estimation. However, combining these populations may introduce bias if the underlying relationships are in fact different. The probability of agreement formally and intuitively quantifies the similarity of estimated reliability surfaces across a two-factor input space. An example from the reliability literature demonstrates the utility of the approach when deciding whether to combine two populations or to keep them as distinct. New graphical summaries provide strategies for visualizing the results.
Kinetic Monte Carlo Methods For Computing First Capture Time Distributions In Models Of Diffusive Absorption,
2017
Harvey Mudd College
Kinetic Monte Carlo Methods For Computing First Capture Time Distributions In Models Of Diffusive Absorption, Daniel Schmidt
HMC Senior Theses
In this paper, we consider the capture dynamics of a particle undergoing a random walk above a sheet of absorbing traps. In particular, we seek to characterize the distribution in time from when the particle is released to when it is absorbed. This problem is motivated by the study of lymphocytes in the human blood stream; for a particle near the surface of a lymphocyte, how long will it take for the particle to be captured? We model this problem as a diffusive process with a mixture of reflecting and absorbing boundary conditions. The model is analyzed from two approaches. …
Stochastic Processes And Integrals,
2017
Wayne State University
Stochastic Processes And Integrals, Jose L. Menaldi
Mathematics Faculty Research Publications
Stochastic integrals with respect to Wiener process and Poisson measures are discusses, beginning from stochastic processes.
Influences Of Probability Instruction On Undergraduates' Understanding Of Counting Processes,
2017
University of Kentucky
Influences Of Probability Instruction On Undergraduates' Understanding Of Counting Processes, Kayla Blyman
Theses and Dissertations--Education Sciences
Historically, students in an introductory finite mathematics course at a major university in the mid-south have struggled the most with the counting and probability unit, leading instructors to question if there was a better way to help students master the material. The purpose of this study was to begin to understand connections that undergraduate finite mathematics students are making between counting and probability. By examining student performance in counting and probability, this study provides insights that inform future instruction in courses that include counting and probability. Consequently, this study lays the groundwork for future inquiries in the field of undergraduate …
A Traders Guide To The Predictive Universe- A Model For Predicting Oil Price Targets And Trading On Them,
2016
Washington University in St. Louis
A Traders Guide To The Predictive Universe- A Model For Predicting Oil Price Targets And Trading On Them, Jimmie Harold Lenz
Doctor of Business Administration Dissertations
At heart every trader loves volatility; this is where return on investment comes from, this is what drives the proverbial “positive alpha.” As a trader, understanding the probabilities related to the volatility of prices is key, however if you could also predict future prices with reliability the world would be your oyster. To this end, I have achieved three goals with this dissertation, to develop a model to predict future short term prices (direction and magnitude), to effectively test this by generating consistent profits utilizing a trading model developed for this purpose, and to write a paper that anyone with …
Newsvendor Models With Monte Carlo Sampling,
2016
East Tennessee State University
Newsvendor Models With Monte Carlo Sampling, Ijeoma W. Ekwegh
Electronic Theses and Dissertations
Newsvendor Models with Monte Carlo Sampling by Ijeoma Winifred Ekwegh The newsvendor model is used in solving inventory problems in which demand is random. In this thesis, we will focus on a method of using Monte Carlo sampling to estimate the order quantity that will either maximizes revenue or minimizes cost given that demand is uncertain. Given data, the Monte Carlo approach will be used in sampling data over scenarios and also estimating the probability density function. A bootstrapping process yields an empirical distribution for the order quantity that will maximize the expected profit. Finally, this method will be used …
Teaching The Quandary Of Statistical Jurisprudence: A Review-Essay On Math On Trial By Schneps And Colmez,
2016
University of Georgia
Teaching The Quandary Of Statistical Jurisprudence: A Review-Essay On Math On Trial By Schneps And Colmez, Noah Giansiracusa
Journal of Humanistic Mathematics
This review-essay on the mother-and-daughter collaboration Math on Trial stems from my recent experience using this book as the basis for a college freshman seminar on the interactions between math and law. I discuss the strengths and weaknesses of this book as an accessible introduction to this enigmatic yet deeply important topic. For those considering teaching from this text (a highly recommended endeavor) I offer some curricular suggestions.
Simple Tools With Nontrivial Implications For Assessment Of Hypothesis-Evidence Relationships: The Interrogator’S Fallacy,
2016
Hofstra University
Simple Tools With Nontrivial Implications For Assessment Of Hypothesis-Evidence Relationships: The Interrogator’S Fallacy, Justus R. Riek
Journal of Humanistic Mathematics
This paper takes a mathematical analysis technique derived from the Interrogator’s Fallacy (in a legal context), expands upon it to identify a set of three interrelated probabilistic tools with wide applicability, and demonstrates their ability to assess hypothesis-evidence relationships associated with important problems
Stochastic Processes And Their Applications To Change Point Detection Problems,
2016
CUNY Graduate Center
Stochastic Processes And Their Applications To Change Point Detection Problems, Heng Yang
Dissertations, Theses, and Capstone Projects
This dissertation addresses the change point detection problem when either the post-change distribution has uncertainty or the post-change distribution is time inhomogeneous. In the case of post-change distribution uncertainty, attention is drawn to the construction of a family of composite stopping times. It is shown that the proposed composite stopping time has third order optimality in the detection problem with Wiener observations and also provides information to distinguish the different values of post-change drift. In the case of post-change distribution uncertainty, a computationally efficient decision rule with low-complexity based on Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) algorithm is also introduced. In the time …
Thinking Poker Through Game Theory,
2016
California State University, San Bernardino
Thinking Poker Through Game Theory, Damian Palafox
Electronic Theses, Projects, and Dissertations
Poker is a complex game to analyze. In this project we will use the mathematics of game theory to solve some simplified variations of the game. Probability is the building block behind game theory. We must understand a few concepts from probability such as distributions, expected value, variance, and enumeration methods to aid us in studying game theory. We will solve and analyze games through game theory by using different decision methods, decision trees, and the process of domination and simplification. Poker models, with and without cards, will be provided to illustrate optimal strategies. Extensions to those models will be …
Elements Of The Mathematical Formulation Of Quantum Mechanics,
2016
Washington University in Saint Louis
Elements Of The Mathematical Formulation Of Quantum Mechanics, Keunjae Go
Senior Honors Papers / Undergraduate Theses
In this paper, we will explore some of the basic elements of the mathematical formulation of quantum mechanics. In the first section, I will list the motivations for introducing a probability model that is quite different from that of the classical probability theory, but still shares quite a few significant commonalities. Later in the paper, I will discuss the quantum probability theory in detail, while paying a brief attention to some of the axioms (by Birkhoff and von Neumann) that illustrate both the commonalities and differences between classical mechanics and quantum mechanics. This paper will end with a presentation of …
Method For Determining Time-Resolved Heat Transfer Coefficient And Adiabatic Effectiveness Waveforms With Unsteady Film Cooling,
2016
Air Force Institute of Technology
Method For Determining Time-Resolved Heat Transfer Coefficient And Adiabatic Effectiveness Waveforms With Unsteady Film Cooling, James L. Rutledge, Jonathan F. Mccall
AFIT Patents
A new method for determining heat transfer coefficient (h) and adiabatic effectiveness (η) waveforms h(t) and η(t) from a single test uses a novel inverse heat transfer methodology to use surface temperature histories obtained using prior art approaches to approximate the h(t) and η(t) waveforms. The method best curve fits the data to a pair of truncated Fourier series.
Models For Hsv Shedding Must Account For Two Levels Of Overdispersion,
2016
University of Washington - Seattle Campus
Models For Hsv Shedding Must Account For Two Levels Of Overdispersion, Amalia Magaret
UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series
We have frequently implemented crossover studies to evaluate new therapeutic interventions for genital herpes simplex virus infection. The outcome measured to assess the efficacy of interventions on herpes disease severity is the viral shedding rate, defined as the frequency of detection of HSV on the genital skin and mucosa. We performed a simulation study to ascertain whether our standard model, which we have used previously, was appropriately considering all the necessary features of the shedding data to provide correct inference. We simulated shedding data under our standard, validated assumptions and assessed the ability of 5 different models to reproduce the …
A New Right Tailed Test Of The Ratio Of Variances,
2016
University of North Florida
A New Right Tailed Test Of The Ratio Of Variances, Elizabeth Rochelle Lesser
UNF Graduate Theses and Dissertations
It is important to be able to compare variances efficiently and accurately regardless of the parent populations. This study proposes a new right tailed test for the ratio of two variances using the Edgeworth’s expansion. To study the Type I error rate and Power performance, simulation was performed on the new test with various combinations of symmetric and skewed distributions. It is found to have more controlled Type I error rates than the existing tests. Additionally, it also has sufficient power. Therefore, the newly derived test provides a good robust alternative to the already existing methods.
Pcr5 And Neutrosophic Probability In Target Identification,
2016
University of New Mexico
Pcr5 And Neutrosophic Probability In Target Identification, Florentin Smarandache, Nassim Abbas, Youcef Chibani, Bilal Hadjadji, Zayen Azzouz Omar
Branch Mathematics and Statistics Faculty and Staff Publications
In this paper we use PCR5 in order to fusion the information of two sources providing subjective probabilities of an event A to occur in the following form: chance that A occurs, indeterminate chance of occurrence of A, chance that A does not occur.
Simulation Of Nuclear Fusion Using A One Dimensional Particle In Cell Method,
2016
Humboldt State University
Simulation Of Nuclear Fusion Using A One Dimensional Particle In Cell Method, Steven T. Margell
Cal Poly Humboldt theses and projects
In this thesis several novel techniques are developed to simulate fusion events in an isotropic, electrostatic three-dimensional Deuterium-Tritium plasma. These techniques allow us to accurately predict three-dimensional collision events with a one-dimensional model while simultaneously reducing compute time via a nearest neighbor algorithm. Furthermore, a fusion model based on first principles is developed that yields an average fusion reactivity which correlates well with empirical results.
Supervised Classification Using Copula And Mixture Copula,
2015
Old Dominion University
Supervised Classification Using Copula And Mixture Copula, Sumen Sen
Mathematics & Statistics Theses & Dissertations
Statistical classification is a field of study that has developed significantly after 1960's. This research has a vast area of applications. For example, pattern recognition has been proposed for automatic character recognition, medical diagnostic and most recently in data mining. Classical discrimination rule assumes normality. However in many situations, this assumption is often questionable. In fact for some data, the pattern vector is a mixture of discrete and continuous random variables. In this dissertation, we use copula densities to model class conditional distributions. Such types of densities are useful when the marginal densities of a pattern vector are not normally …
