An Overview And Evaluation Of Synthetc: A Statistical Model For Extra-Tropical Cyclones,
2019
CUNY City College
An Overview And Evaluation Of Synthetc: A Statistical Model For Extra-Tropical Cyclones, Rafael Uryayev
Dissertations and Theses
Extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are the most common weather phenomena affecting the United States, Canada, and Europe. They can pose serious hazards over large swaths of area. In this thesis, a statistical model of ETCs, called SynthETC, is discussed. The model accounts for the for genesis, track path, termination, and intensity of statistically generated ETCs. Genesis is modeled as a Poisson process, whose mean is determined by climate and historical information. Tracks are modeled as a regression-mean determined by climate and historical information plus a stochastic component. Lysis is modeled using logistic regression, with climate states as covariates. Intensity is modeled …
Analysis Of Ranked Gene Tree Probability Distributions Under The Coalescent Process For Detecting Anomaly Zones,
2018
University of New Mexico
Analysis Of Ranked Gene Tree Probability Distributions Under The Coalescent Process For Detecting Anomaly Zones, Anastasiia Kim
Shared Knowledge Conference
In phylogenetic studies, gene trees are used to reconstruct species tree. Under the multispecies coalescent model, gene trees topologies may differ from that of species trees. The incorrect gene tree topology (one that does not match the species tree) that is more probable than the correct one is termed anomalous gene tree (AGT). Species trees that can generate such AGTs are said to be in the anomaly zone (AZ). In this region, the method of choosing the most common gene tree as the estimate of the species tree will be inconsistent and will converge to an incorrect species tree when …
Statistical Investigation Of Road And Railway Hazardous Materials Transportation Safety,
2018
University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Statistical Investigation Of Road And Railway Hazardous Materials Transportation Safety, Amirfarrokh Iranitalab
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering: Dissertations, Theses, and Student Research
Transportation of hazardous materials (hazmat) in the United States (U.S.) constituted 22.8% of the total tonnage transported in 2012 with an estimated value of more than 2.3 billion dollars. As such, hazmat transportation is a significant economic activity in the U.S. However, hazmat transportation exposes people and environment to the infrequent but potentially severe consequences of incidents resulting in hazmat release. Trucks and trains carried 63.7% of the hazmat in the U.S. in 2012 and are the major foci of this dissertation. The main research objectives were 1) identification and quantification of the effects of different factors on occurrence and …
Probabilities Involving Standard Trirectangular Tetrahedral Dice Rolls,
2018
Brigham Young University-Hawaii
Probabilities Involving Standard Trirectangular Tetrahedral Dice Rolls, Rulon Olmstead, Doneliezer Baize
Rose-Hulman Undergraduate Mathematics Journal
The goal is to be able to calculate probabilities involving irregular shaped dice rolls. Here it is attempted to model the probabilities of rolling standard tri-rectangular tetrahedral dice on a hard surface, such as a table top. The vertices and edges of a tetrahedron were projected onto the surface of a sphere centered at the center of mass of the tetrahedron. By calculating the surface areas bounded by the resultant geodesics, baseline probabilities were achieved. Using a 3D printer, dice were constructed of uniform density and the results of rolling them were recorded. After calculating the corresponding confidence intervals, the …
Season-Ahead Forecasting Of Water Storage And Irrigation Requirements – An Application To The Southwest Monsoon In India,
2018
CUNY City College
Season-Ahead Forecasting Of Water Storage And Irrigation Requirements – An Application To The Southwest Monsoon In India, Arun Ravindranath, Naresh Devineni, Upmanu Lall, Paulina Concha Larrauri
Publications and Research
Water risk management is a ubiquitous challenge faced by stakeholders in the water or agricultural sector. We present a methodological framework for forecasting water storage requirements and present an application of this methodology to risk assessment in India. The application focused on forecasting crop water stress for potatoes grown during the monsoon season in the Satara district of Maharashtra. Pre-season large-scale climate predictors used to forecast water stress were selected based on an exhaustive search method that evaluates for highest ranked probability skill score and lowest root-mean-squared error in a leave-one-out cross-validation mode. Adaptive forecasts were made in the years …
Yelp’S Review Filtering Algorithm,
2018
Southern Methodist University
Yelp’S Review Filtering Algorithm, Yao Yao, Ivelin Angelov, Jack Rasmus-Vorrath, Mooyoung Lee, Daniel W. Engels
SMU Data Science Review
In this paper, we present an analysis of features influencing Yelp's proprietary review filtering algorithm. Classifying or misclassifying reviews as recommended or non-recommended affects average ratings, consumer decisions, and ultimately, business revenue. Our analysis involves systematically sampling and scraping Yelp restaurant reviews. Features are extracted from review metadata and engineered from metrics and scores generated using text classifiers and sentiment analysis. The coefficients of a multivariate logistic regression model were interpreted as quantifications of the relative importance of features in classifying reviews as recommended or non-recommended. The model classified review recommendations with an accuracy of 78%. We found that reviews …
Generalizing Multistage Partition Procedures For Two-Parameter Exponential Populations,
2018
University of New Orleans
Generalizing Multistage Partition Procedures For Two-Parameter Exponential Populations, Rui Wang
LSU New Orleans Theses and Dissertations
ANOVA analysis is a classic tool for multiple comparisons and has been widely used in numerous disciplines due to its simplicity and convenience. The ANOVA procedure is designed to test if a number of different populations are all different. This is followed by usual multiple comparison tests to rank the populations. However, the probability of selecting the best population via ANOVA procedure does not guarantee the probability to be larger than some desired prespecified level. This lack of desirability of the ANOVA procedure was overcome by researchers in early 1950's by designing experiments with the goal of selecting the best …
Surprise Vs. Probability As A Metric For Proof,
2018
U.S. Court of Federal Claims
Surprise Vs. Probability As A Metric For Proof, Edward K. Cheng, Matthew Ginther
Vanderbilt Law School Faculty Publications
In this Symposium issue celebrating his career, Professor Michael Risinger in Leveraging Surprise proposes using "the fundamental emotion of surprise" as a way of measuring belief for purposes of legal proof. More specifically, Professor Risinger argues that we should not conceive of the burden of proof in terms of probabilities such as 51%, 95%, or even "beyond a reasonable doubt." Rather, the legal system should reference the threshold using "words of estimative surprise" -asking jurors how surprised they would be if the fact in question were not true. Toward this goal (and being averse to cardinality), he suggests categories such …
Distribution Of A Sum Of Random Variables When The Sample Size Is A Poisson Distribution,
2018
East Tennessee State University
Distribution Of A Sum Of Random Variables When The Sample Size Is A Poisson Distribution, Mark Pfister
Electronic Theses and Dissertations
A probability distribution is a statistical function that describes the probability of possible outcomes in an experiment or occurrence. There are many different probability distributions that give the probability of an event happening, given some sample size n. An important question in statistics is to determine the distribution of the sum of independent random variables when the sample size n is fixed. For example, it is known that the sum of n independent Bernoulli random variables with success probability p is a Binomial distribution with parameters n and p: However, this is not true when the sample size …
The Expected Number Of Patterns In A Random Generated Permutation On [N] = {1,2,...,N},
2018
East Tennessee State University
The Expected Number Of Patterns In A Random Generated Permutation On [N] = {1,2,...,N}, Evelyn Fokuoh
Electronic Theses and Dissertations
Previous work by Flaxman (2004) and Biers-Ariel et al. (2018) focused on the number of distinct words embedded in a string of words of length n. In this thesis, we will extend this work to permutations, focusing on the maximum number of distinct permutations contained in a permutation on [n] = {1,2,...,n} and on the expected number of distinct permutations contained in a random permutation on [n]. We further considered the problem where repetition of subsequences are as a result of the occurrence of (Type A and/or Type B) replications. Our method of enumerating the Type A replications causes double …
Pretrial Release And Failure-To-Appear In Mclean County, Il,
2018
Illinois State University
Pretrial Release And Failure-To-Appear In Mclean County, Il, Jonathan Monsma
Student Research – Stevenson Center
Actuarial risk assessment tools increasingly have been employed in jurisdictions across the U.S. to assist courts in the decision of whether someone charged with a crime should be detained or released prior to their trial. These tools should be continually monitored and researched by independent 3rd parties to ensure that these powerful tools are being administered properly and used in the most proficient way as to provide socially optimal results. McLean County, Illinois began using the Public Safety Assessment-CourtTM (PSA-Court or simply PSA) risk assessment tool beginning in 2016. This study culls data from the McLean County Jail …
Mixed Logical And Probabilistic Reasoning In The Game Of Clue,
2018
Gettysburg College
Mixed Logical And Probabilistic Reasoning In The Game Of Clue, Todd W. Neller, Ziqian Luo
Computer Science Faculty Publications
Neller and Ziqian Luo ’18 presented a means of mixed logical and probabilistic reasoning with knowledge in the popular deductive mystery game Clue. Using at-least constraints, we more efficiently represented and reasoned about cardinality constraints on Clue card deal knowledge, and then employed a WalkSAT-based solution sampling algorithm with a tabu search metaheuristic in order to estimate the probabilities of unknown card places.
Risk Assessment Of Dropped Cylindrical Objects In Offshore Operations,
2018
University of New Orleans
Risk Assessment Of Dropped Cylindrical Objects In Offshore Operations, Adelina Steven
LSU New Orleans Theses and Dissertations
Dropped object are defined as any object that fall under its own weight from a previously static position or fell due to an applied force from equipment or a moving object. It is among the top ten causes of injuries and fatality in oil and gas industry. To solve this problem, several in-house tools and guidelines is developed over time to assess the risk of dropped objects on the sub-sea structures. This thesis focuses on compiling and comparing those methods in hope to improve the recommended practices available in the market. A simple modification is done on the in-house tools …
Golden Arm: A Probabilistic Study Of Dice Control In Craps,
2018
Monmouth University
Golden Arm: A Probabilistic Study Of Dice Control In Craps, Donald R. Smith, Robert Scott Iii
UNLV Gaming Research & Review Journal
This paper calculates how much control a craps shooter must possess on dice outcomes to eliminate the house advantage. A golden arm is someone who has dice control (or a rhythm roller or dice influencer). There are various strategies for dice control in craps. We discuss several possibilities of dice control that would result in several different mathematical models of control. We do not assert whether dice control is possible or not (there is a lack of published evidence). However, after studying casino-legal methods described by dice-control advocates, we can see only one realistic mathematical model that describes the resulting …
Evaluation Of Using The Bootstrap Procedure To Estimate The Population Variance,
2018
Stephen F Austin State University
Evaluation Of Using The Bootstrap Procedure To Estimate The Population Variance, Nghia Trong Nguyen
Electronic Theses and Dissertations
The bootstrap procedure is widely used in nonparametric statistics to generate an empirical sampling distribution from a given sample data set for a statistic of interest. Generally, the results are good for location parameters such as population mean, median, and even for estimating a population correlation. However, the results for a population variance, which is a spread parameter, are not as good due to the resampling nature of the bootstrap method. Bootstrap samples are constructed using sampling with replacement; consequently, groups of observations with zero variance manifest in these samples. As a result, a bootstrap variance estimator will carry a …
Score Test And Likelihood Ratio Test For Zero-Inflated Binomial Distribution And Geometric Distribution,
2018
Western Kentucky University
Score Test And Likelihood Ratio Test For Zero-Inflated Binomial Distribution And Geometric Distribution, Xiaogang Dai
Masters Theses & Specialist Projects
The main purpose of this thesis is to compare the performance of the score test and the likelihood ratio test by computing type I errors and type II errors when the tests are applied to the geometric distribution and inflated binomial distribution. We first derive test statistics of the score test and the likelihood ratio test for both distributions. We then use the software package R to perform a simulation to study the behavior of the two tests. We derive the R codes to calculate the two types of error for each distribution. We create lots of samples to approximate …
General Stochastic Integral And Itô Formula With Application To Stochastic Differential Equations And Mathematical Finance,
2018
Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College
General Stochastic Integral And Itô Formula With Application To Stochastic Differential Equations And Mathematical Finance, Jiayu Zhai
LSU Doctoral Dissertations
A general stochastic integration theory for adapted and instantly independent stochastic processes arises when we consider anticipative stochastic differential equations. In Part I of this thesis, we conduct a deeper research on the general stochastic integral introduced by W. Ayed and H.-H. Kuo in 2008. We provide a rigorous mathematical framework for the integral in Chapter 2, and prove that the integral is well-defined. Then a general Itô formula is given. In Chapter 3, we present an intrinsic property, near-martingale property, of the general stochastic integral, and Doob-Meyer's decomposition for near-submartigales. We apply the new stochastic integration theory to several …
Density Estimation Of Spatio-Temporal Point Patterns Using Moran’S Statistics,
2018
Old Dominion University
Density Estimation Of Spatio-Temporal Point Patterns Using Moran’S Statistics, Jennifer L. Lorio, Norou Diawara, Lance A. Waller
Mathematics & Statistics Faculty Publications
Moran’s Index is a statistic that measures spatial autocorrelation, quantifying the degree of dispersion (or spread) of objects in space. When investigating data in an area, a single Moran statistic may not give a sufficient summary of the autocorrelation spread. However, by partitioning the area and taking the Moran statistic of each subarea, we discover patterns of the local neighbors not otherwise apparent. In this paper, we consider the model of the spread of an infectious disease, incorporate time factor, and simulate a multilevel Poisson process where the dependence among the levels is captured by the rate of increase of …
Predicting The Next Us President By Simulating The Electoral College,
2018
New York City College of Technology, CUNY
Predicting The Next Us President By Simulating The Electoral College, Boyan Kostadinov
Journal of Humanistic Mathematics
We develop a simulation model for predicting the outcome of the US Presidential election based on simulating the distribution of the Electoral College. The simulation model has two parts: (a) estimating the probabilities for a given candidate to win each state and DC, based on state polls, and (b) estimating the probability that a given candidate will win at least 270 electoral votes, and thus win the White House. All simulations are coded using the high-level, open-source programming language R. One of the goals of this paper is to promote computational thinking in any STEM field by illustrating how probabilistic …
Preference Probability Based On Ranks - A New Approach Using Logistic Regression With Zero Intercept,
2018
Marshall University
Preference Probability Based On Ranks - A New Approach Using Logistic Regression With Zero Intercept, Oluwagbenga David Agboola
Theses, Dissertations and Capstones
Many probability models have been proposed to describe rankings. One of these is the BradleyTerry model, which is based on observed pairwise preferences. For this study, we reverse the case and propose a new approach for estimating pairwise preference probabilities based on observed rankings. The new approach uses logistic regression with zero intercept as the statistical model that fits this situation. In order to implement the model, we first estimate the parameter using maximum likelihood estimation. Then we evaluate this estimation using numerical approximation procedures. We consider three such procedures: bisection method, Newton-Raphson method, and improved Newton’s method. Using simulated …
