Statistics and Probability Commons^™

A Stochastic Parameter Regression Model For Long Memory Time Series, Rose Marie Ocker

Boise State University Theses and Dissertations

In a complex and dynamic world, the assumption that relationships in a system remain constant is not necessarily a well-founded one. Allowing for time-varying parameters in a regression model has become a popular technique, but the best way to estimate the parameters of the time-varying model is still in discussion. These parameters can be autocorrelated with their past for a long time (long memory), but most of the existing models for parameters are of the short memory type, leaving the error process to account for any long memory behavior in the response variable. As an alternative, we propose a long …

Table Games Revenue Management: A Bayesian Approach, Daryl F. Boykin

UNLV Theses, Dissertations, Professional Papers, and Capstones

With growing competition for casino floor space, the Table Games department is under increased pressure to improve revenues. Current systems in the department rely upon a supervisor's intuitive knowledge about business trends hourly to respond to business levels. By using Bayesian analysis, it is possible to develop a functional revenue management system for making optimal business decisions in the Table Game Departments.

Statistical Modeling, Exploration, And Visualization Of Snow Water Equivalent Data, James Beguah Odei

All Graduate Theses and Dissertations, Spring 1920 to Summer 2023

Due to a continual increase in the demand for water as well as an ongoing regional drought, there is an imminent need to monitor and forecast water resources in the Western United States. In particular, water resources in the Intermountain West rely heavily on snow water storage. Thus, the need to improve seasonal forecasts of snowpack and considering new techniques would allow water resources to be more effectively managed throughout the entire water-year. Many available models used in forecasting snow water equivalent (SWE) measurements require delicate calibrations.

In contrast to the physical SWE models most commonly used for forecasting, we …

Assessing The Impact Of Misclassification When Comparing Prevalence Data: A Novel Sensitivity Analysis Approach, Ninet Sinaii, Sean D. Cleary, Pamela Stratton

Epidemiology Faculty Publications

Background: A simple sensitivity analysis technique was developed to assess the impact of misclassification and verify observed prevalence differences between distinct populations.

Methods: The prevalence of self-reported comorbid diseases in 4,331 women with surgically-diagnosed endometriosis was compared to published clinical and population-based prevalence estimates. Disease prevalence misclassification was assessed by assuming over-reporting in the study sample and under-reporting in the general (comparison) population. Over- and under-reporting by 10%, 25%, 50%, 75%, and 90% was used to create a 5×5 table for each disease. The new prevalences represented by each table cell were compared by p-values, prevalence odds ratios, and 95% …

The Effect Of Commercial Tests For Aneuploidy Screening Using Cell-Free Fetal Dna On Rates Of Invasive Testing In Clinical Practice, Adetola Louis-Jacques Md, Courtney R. Burans Ms, Cgc, Sarah Robinson, Elizabeth A. Schofield, Joanne Quiñones Md, Msce, John C. Smulian Md, Mph, Meredith Rochon Md

Department of Obstetrics & Gynecology

No abstract provided.

Use Of Commercial Tests For Aneuploidy Screening Using Cell-Free Fetal Dna In Clinical Practice (Poster), Adetola Louis-Jacques Md, Courtney R. Burans Ms, Cgc, Sarah Robinson, Elizabeth A. Schofield, Joanne Quiñones Md, Msce, John C. Smulian Md, Mph, Meredith Rochon Md

Department of Obstetrics & Gynecology

No abstract provided.

Rct Evaluating Safety & Efficacy Of Sodium Hyaluronate/Carboxymethylcellulose At Cesarean Delivery, Daniel G. Kiefer Md, Jolene C. Muscat Md, Jarrett Santorelli Bs, Martin R. Chavez Md, Cande V. Ananth Phd, Mph, John C. Smulian Md, Mph, Anthony M. Vintzileos Md

Department of Obstetrics & Gynecology

No abstract provided.

Does Cervical Ripening Via Intracervical Balloon Placement Increase The Risk Of Chorioamnionitis In Patients With Premature Rupture Of Membranes At Term?, Irena B. Cabrera Md, Joanne Quiñones Md, Msce, Danielle E. Durie Md, Jacob Rust, John C. Smulian Md, Mph, William E. Scorza Md

Department of Obstetrics & Gynecology

No abstract provided.

Amniotic Fluid Index Or Deepest Vertical Pocket?, Joanne Quiñones Md, Msce, R Melody Reynolds Md, Daniel G. Kiefer Md, Meredith Rochon Md, Katie Karabasz-Brown, John C. Smulian Md, Mph

Department of Obstetrics & Gynecology

No abstract provided.

Asset Returns From A Distance-Based Random Partition Model, Richard D. Payne, David B. Dahl, Brian M. Hartman

Journal of Undergraduate Research

When pricing an insurance product, many factors a ect market returns. Policyholder behavior (lapses, mortality, morbidity, etc.), policy riders (guarantees, look-backs, ratchets, etc.), industry and government forces (competition and regulation), among others can all depend on the asset returns and a ect the total risk exposure from the market. In these complicated settings, an analytical solution is often unavailable and the asset returns will need to be simulated. Regime- switching models are important in nance and actuarial science because they are often successful in simulating asset returns. These models t the complicated nature of market risk exposure more e ectively …

Success In Professional Baseball: The Value Of Above Average Position Players, Heath Detweiler

Senior Honors Theses

In professional baseball, efficient spending is the key to success. Because modern player contracts are so costly, front offices must seek out the most valuable players. In addition, to reach the playoffs, teams need offensively above average players at some positions. Together, these facts lead to an interesting question of whether or not defensive position impacts the value of offensively above average players. To answer this question, reliable metrics of offensive ability must be employed and appropriately analyzed.

Through an analysis involving on-base percentage, park-adjusted linear weights, and weighted on-base average over the course of the 2010 through 2013 Major …

Application And Extension Of Weighted Quantile Sum Regression For The Development Of A Clinical Risk Prediction Tool, Ghalib Bello

Theses and Dissertations

In clinical settings, the diagnosis of medical conditions is often aided by measurement of various serum biomarkers through the use of laboratory tests. These biomarkers provide information about different aspects of a patient’s health and the overall function of different organs. In this dissertation, we develop and validate a weighted composite index that aggregates the information from a variety of health biomarkers covering multiple organ systems. The index can be used for predicting all-cause mortality and could also be used as a holistic measure of overall physiological health status. We refer to it as the Health Status Metric (HSM). Validation …

A Study Of The Relationship Between Childhood Body Size And Adult Blood Pressure, Cardiovascular Structure And Function, Yangyang Deng

Theses and Dissertations

BACKGROUND: Little is known of the effects of obesity, body size and body composition, and blood pressure (BP) in childhood on hypertension (HBP) and cardiac structure and function in adulthood due to the lack of long-term serial data on these parameters from childhood into adulthood. In the present study, we are poised to analyze these serial data from the Fels Longitudinal Study (FLS) to evaluate the extent to which body size during childhood determines HBP and cardiac structure and function in the same individuals in adulthood through mathematical modeling. METHODS: The data were from 412 males and 403 females in …

Socioeconomic And Demographic Factors Modify The Association Between Informal Caregiving And Health In The Sandwich Generation, Elizabeth K. Do, Steven A. Cohen, Monique J. Brown Ph.D., Mph

Faculty Publications

Background

Nearly 50 million Americans provide informal care to an older relative or friend. Many are members of the “sandwich generation”, providing care for elderly parents and children simultaneously. Although evidence suggests that the negative health consequences of caregiving are more severe for sandwiched caregivers, little is known about how these associations vary by sociodemographic factors.

Methods

We abstracted data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System to determine how the association between caregiving and health varies by sociodemographic factors, using ordinal logistic regression with interaction terms and stratification by number of children, income, and race/ethnicity.

Results

The association between …

New Pod Error Expressions, Error Bounds, And Asymptotic Results For Reduced Order Model Of Parabolic Pdes, John R. Singler

Mathematics and Statistics Faculty Research & Creative Works

The derivations of existing error bounds for reduced order models of time varying partialdi erential equations (PDEs) constructed using proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) haverelied on bounding the error between the POD data and various POD projections of that data.Furthermore, the asymptotic behavior of the model reduction error bounds depends on theasymptotic behavior of the POD data approximation error bounds. We consider time varyingdata taking values in two di erent Hilbert spacesHandV, withVH, and prove exactexpressions for the POD data approximation errors considering four di erent POD projectionsand the two di erent Hilbert space error norms. Furthermore, the exact error expressions …

Nonparametric Identifiability Of Finite Mixture Models With Covariates For Estimating Error Rate Without A Gold Standard, Zheyu Wang, Xiao-Hua Zhou

UW Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Finite mixture models provide a flexible framework to study unobserved entities and have arisen in many statistical applications. The flexibility of these models in adapting various complicated structures makes it crucial to establish model identifiability when applying them in practice to ensure study validity and interpretation. However, researches to establish the identifiability of finite mixture model are limited and are usually restricted to a few specific model configurations. Conditions for model identifiability in the general case have not been established. In this paper, we provide conditions for both local identifiability and global identifiability of a finite mixture model. The former …

A Comparison Of Students’ Perceptions Of Stress In Parallel Problem-Based And Lecture-Based Curricula, Sonia Wardley, Brooks Applegate, Deyab Almaleki, James Van Rhee

Research and Creative Activities Poster Day

Introduction

What is stress? Research asserts that stress is the mental state that results from an inability to cope (Burton 2004)

Why focus on stress?

• Persistent stress can lead to serious psychological problems such as interpersonal difficulties, depression, anxiety, and even suicide (Shapiro 2000)
• Several studies have found up to a third of medical students experience stress-related problems

The importance of this study comes from: A review of the extent literature suggests there is no systematic inquiry of the effects of stress experienced by students in LBL and PBL curricula in PA education

Biological Pathways In Determining Personalized Treatments, Ariana Hedges, Dr. W. Evan Johnson

Journal of Undergraduate Research

At the current state of diagnostic capability, two patients with the same cancer diagnosis may respond very differently to the same treatment. Unfortunately, failure to respond to a particular treatment wastes valuable time and may result in disease progression that may be detrimental for the patient. Therefore, diagnoses finely tuned to individual patients would better guide treatment while eliminating the trial and error that is often part of current medical practice.

Smoking And Tuberculosis In Ukraine, Noel Ellison, Dr. Bruce Collings

Journal of Undergraduate Research

Tuberculosis (TB) is a contagious bacterial infection caused by mycobacterium Tuberculosis. While some people consider TB to be a “dead” disease that was eradicated years ago, it is, in fact, very much alive in the world today. It is estimated that more than two billion people are infected with TB bacilli1; this is approximately one third of the world’s population. There are many factors associated with the development of TB. Previous research links socioeconomic factors as well as HIB-TB co-infection with the TB epidemic. Countries that are poorer and have higher levels of HIV tend to have more cases of …

A Scalable Supervised Subsemble Prediction Algorithm, Stephanie Sapp, Mark J. Van Der Laan

U.C. Berkeley Division of Biostatistics Working Paper Series

Subsemble is a flexible ensemble method that partitions a full data set into subsets of observations, fits the same algorithm on each subset, and uses a tailored form of V-fold cross-validation to construct a prediction function that combines the subset-specific fits with a second metalearner algorithm. Previous work studied the performance of Subsemble with subsets created randomly, and showed that these types of Subsembles often result in better prediction performance than the underlying algorithm fit just once on the full dataset. Since the final Subsemble estimator varies depending on the data used to create the subset-specific fits, different strategies for …